Today
CBA tips one rate cut this year as retail sales ease fears of a rise
Last week’s hot inflation data reignited the prospect of further rate increases, but Tuesday’s weak retail sales numbers have traders walking back those expectations.
- Cecile Lefort and Joshua Peach
Yesterday
Fed rate cut debate shifts from when toward if on sticky inflation
US policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high this week, so much of the focus will be on any pivot from the Fed chairman.
- Steve Matthews
RBA’s next move will still be a rate cut, say investors
Market pundits argue that interest rates are still going down, not up, because inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than many had expected.
- Cecile Lefort
This Month
Market bets the RBA will raise rates by August
Traders are ascribing a more than 50 per cent chance the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate as early as in August to stamp out inflation.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders see zero chance of RBA rate relief
The bond market has completely removed any chance of an easing in 2024, making Australia the only major economy where rates could rise.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders speculate RBA’s next move could be up
The Australian dollar jumped and bonds sold off after inflation beat forecasts, prompting traders to abandon almost every basis point of easing in this year’s cash rate profile.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
‘Can’t rule out a further rate hike’: economists
Economists point to signs the economy is picking up, fuelling speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could lift the cash rate one more time.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Sharemarket doesn’t need rate cuts for life support
Australia’s jobless rate rose less than expected as the labour force remains tight, reinforcing the case for the Reserve Bank to stay on hold.
- Cecile Lefort and Ben Potter
What Bloxham, Masters and Ong say will be in the budget
Economists surveyed by Financial Review expect government spending in the federal budget to be aimed at struggling families, but it will be small and not inflationary.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
RBA might be forced to cut rates before US Fed
Experts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut rates this year but sticky US inflation might force the powerful Federal Reserve to delay until at least Christmas.
- Cecile Lefort
How ‘flamethrowers’ and creaking IT burnt the Bank of England
For more than three decades, the BoE has used fan charts to visualise the uncertainty surrounding its forecasts. As Ben Bernanke pointed out, most people have no idea what they mean.
- Tim Wallace and Szu Ping Chan
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The Fed is becoming less fussed about high inflation
The market continues to be wrong-footed on US rates. The question is whether the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus to supporting growth over fighting inflation.
- Sebastian Mullins
Oil jumps, Treasuries surge on fears Iran will attack Israel
Bond yields tumbled and crude oil surged to a six-month-high following reports that Israel is bracing for a possible attack from Iran.
- Michael Mackenzie
- Opinion
- Government debt
Global debt can’t keep growing forever
Now ultra-low interest rates have ended, large-scale government borrowing looks unsustainable.
- Martin Wolf
Shock US inflation ends chance of RBA rate cuts this year
The $A and bonds were sent into a tailspin after hot CPI data prompted traders to price out the chance of some rate relief from the Reserve Bank in 2024.
- Cecile Lefort
NZ pushes back on early rate cuts despite recession
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the cash rate at a 15-year high but surprised the market by indicating “limited” tolerance for high inflation.
- Cecile Lefort
China to miss lofty economic growth target without major stimulus
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of economists suggests growth as low as 4.2 per cent. But a reliance on iron ore will limit its effect on Australia.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Investors sceptical RBA will cut rates at all in 2024
Equities have shrugged off dialled back rate cut expectations, with the US not expected to pull the trigger until September and the RBA priced for December if at all this year.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The Fed is wrong about how low rates will go
Betting against the Fed is a fraught endeavour. Nonetheless, in this case I think the market is right.
- Bill Dudley
Investors eye attractive returns for Australia’s first green bond
Fund managers expect the country’s first green bond will offer the same yields as government bonds, even though overseas buyers are often willing to receive less.
- Cecile Lefort