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[–]marketrent[S] 2941 points2942 points  (465 children)

Excerpt:

Moderna is considering raising the price of its COVID-19 vaccine by over 400 percent—from $26 per dose to between $110 and $130 per dose—according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal spoke with Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco Monday, who said of the 400 percent price hike: "I would think this type of pricing is consistent with the value.”

Until now, the mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech have been purchased by the government and offered to Americans for free.

In the latest federal contract from July, Moderna's updated booster shot cost the government $26 per dose, up from $15–$16 per dose in earlier supply contracts, the Journal notes.

Similarly, the government paid a little over $30 per dose for Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine this past summer, up from $19.50 per dose in contracts from 2020.

 

But now that the federal government is backing away from distributing the vaccines, their makers are moving to the commercial market—with price adjustments.

Financial analysts had previously anticipated Pfizer would set the commercial price for its vaccine at just $50 per dose but were taken aback in October when Pfizer announced plans of a price between $110 and $130.

Analysts then anticipated that Pfizer's price would push Moderna and other vaccine makers to follow suit, which appears to be happening now.

Ars has reached out to Moderna for comment but has not yet received a response.

Beth Mole, 10 Jan. 2023, Ars Technica (Condé Nast)

[–]Doodah18 1323 points1324 points  (276 children)

I’m assuming the increase is US only? Least that seems to be how these increases work.

[–]Fantact 2055 points2056 points  (260 children)

Anywhere that doesn't have free universal healthcare, so basically only the US in the developed world.

[–]somefunmaths 2157 points2158 points  (172 children)

If this isn’t a perfect example of how private healthcare markets and insurers, as opposed to a single-payer system, can impact things like drug prices, then I don’t know what is.

Even if you argue that Pfizer and Moderna were selling the vaccines to the US at a loss initially, expecting to make that cost up later on, it still raises the huge point about the negotiating power that the federal government has, both as a buyer and as a major source of funding for the research behind this technology.

And we are now seeing what happens when it gets kicked to the private market: seemingly arbitrarily set prices because “fuck you, you’ll pay it”.

[–][deleted] 689 points690 points  (78 children)

That’s what pisses me off. The government heavily funds so much of what these private companies sell. We pay for them to charge us more than the rest of the world. We should be getting it cheaper since our taxes helped develop it. Most advancement in the US is heavily government subsidized.

[–]KarmaticArmageddon 399 points400 points  (56 children)

We pay more than double the per-capita cost of healthcare in both public and private funds than countries with universal healthcare.

We essentially spend quadruple for non-universal healthcare — half directly from our pockets and half from our taxes.

It's just absurd.

[–]TonySu 156 points157 points  (15 children)

I can only assume Americans are four times as healthy as people from other developed countries.

[–]Screamline 147 points148 points  (5 children)

Good joke. Everybody laugh. Curtains.

[–]Saragon4005 30 points31 points  (1 child)

10-20 percent worse then the EU. So yeah basically. Best healthcare in the world only marched by Mexico, canada, Germany, oh shit the list is long. Uh yeah. Perfect system. Pay more to get less! merica!

[–]nbphotography87 65 points66 points  (2 children)

taxes must be distributed through private for-profit corps. with multiple intermediaries taking a cut along the way. it’s a feature, not a bug.

[–]Windwalker69 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Heads should be taken and the rich eaten

[–][deleted] 63 points64 points  (45 children)

Time to scare the shit out of shareholders and force them to reverse course.

[–]Geomaxmas 7 points8 points  (1 child)

I think you mean time to get rid of shareholders in healthcare.

[–]toilet-boa 492 points493 points  (76 children)

Add to that that our government gave them $1B to develop the vaccine. This is obscene.

[–][deleted] 689 points690 points  (38 children)

oh child, $1 Billion?

No No No

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-billion-dollar-covid-vaccines-basic-government-funded-science-laid-the-groundwork/

The government has poured an additional $10.5 billion into vaccine companies since the pandemic began to accelerate the delivery of their products.

that was just to accolade things

That ignores the decades of funding the basic research that created the drugs in the first place

with the Moderna drug being developed EXPLICITLY in parnertship with the Government

The Moderna vaccine, whose remarkable effectiveness in a late-stage trial was announced Monday morning, emerged directly out of a partnership between Moderna and Graham’s NIH laboratory.

[–]FarVision5 245 points246 points  (11 children)

What a deal! Free govt money pays me to make a thing, then I sell the thing. Govt tell people they have to have the thing. I love free money! manded free money.

[–]MultiGeometry 80 points81 points  (6 children)

Don’t forget the part where it would have been profitable to make the thing anyways. They were always going to make a vaccine regardless of if the government helped.

[–]Internal_Recipe6394 55 points56 points  (36 children)

This is obscene

This is America, it is capitalism working as intended. Socialize costs, privatize profits. And you've still got millions too piss ignorant or willfully servile to acknowledge the need for socialism.

[–]Jedimastah 221 points222 points  (27 children)

"Analysts then anticipated that Pfizer proce would push Moderna and other vaccine makers to follow suit, which appears to be happening now"

How is that not a colluding monopoly at that point ?

Also wouldn't the company that doesn't raise prices sell more than the competition because more people would buy the cheaper product ? I guess the company that charges the highest price wins in regards to total profits

[–]Some_Estimate_4464 127 points128 points  (5 children)

It’s referred to as tacit collision and it’s perfectly legal. Pretty much there would need to be “smoking gun” evidence of price fixing (conversations, emails, etc) between competitors before the government would move on this.

Companies tacitly collude all the time. It’s all in the game.

[–]Starlos 60 points61 points  (2 children)

People need to realize that for capitalism to be an effective economic tool, real competition is necessary. Anyone who thinks shit is fair should look at the few megacorps owning essentially everything. It's quite insane.

[–][deleted] 17 points18 points  (1 child)

This is the end game of Capitalism. There is no other path for it to go.

If you want to prevent a few megacorps owning everything, you need regulations. Guess what happens when you mix in regulations?

[–]RtuDtu 61 points62 points  (14 children)

lol doesn't this show exactly why public healthcare is so much better and cheaper over private? I know Canada is seriously looking at federal Pharma plan, as long as the Liberals are in power

[–]jimbobicus 15 points16 points  (6 children)

To be fair that plan is heavily influenced by the NDP which is why 2 party systems suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

If they don't deliver and support is pulled an election can be called. In majority governments there is no mechanism like that so the ruling party does whatever the fuck they want.

[–]Pokerhobo 104 points105 points  (10 children)

Sounds exactly like we need single payer universal health care ASAP

[–]Kevin_Jim 12.3k points12.3k points  (496 children)

Bro, we funded that shit and you made billions!

Also, the US backed the waiving of patents on COVID vaccines. What do they think they are the only ones that can make effective COVID vaccines after two years?

[–]48911150 2204 points2205 points  (368 children)

So are we gonna see cheap vaccines from other companies?

[–]Wallitron_Prime 3893 points3894 points  (327 children)

There is no such thing as competition among drug manufacturers in the US aside from the most basic of drugs like acetaminophen. Even if 10 competitors emerge, they'll all agree on a wildly gouged price and bleed their consumers together

[–]pm_me_ur_demotape 66 points67 points  (35 children)

Then why do generics exist that are usually cheaper?
Not arguing, just asking a real question I have

[–]sharkman1774 83 points84 points  (26 children)

In the US, the company that has the patent for a particular drug has ~10 years before other companies can make a generic version of the same drug

[–]MonMotha 110 points111 points  (18 children)

10 years is drastically simplifying things.

There are patents on various parts of the drug including the molecule, delivery mechanism(s), process to manufacture it, etc. Each patent is separate and has its own lifespan. Generally speaking, they last 20 years from when they're filed for modern patents.

Since any form whatsoever of public disclosure could jeopardize the ability of the drug manufacturer to get and enforce their patent, they generally file for a patent on the molecule very early - before any real trials start. That means that, by the time the drug is actually approved and on the market for general use, there may be more like 5-7 years left. 10 would be pretty amazingly fast in terms of approval, actually.

The other types of patents are easier to get around early disclosure on, and they generally come from later developments, anyway.

It's pretty common for the patent on the basic molecule and even delivery means to be expired but for a patent on the most economic means of manufacturing to still be in force. Sometimes this is the result of process engineering and refinement years later. This can remove the economic incentive for generics since they're then stuck using old manufacturing techniques even if they could legally bring the product to market without infringing the basic patents.

What is really shady are some of the patents on a particular use of a drug. It's sometimes possible to get a drug approved for a new indication, get a patent on that, and then claim that "well since we have a patent that's still in effect on this particular use and the actual end use of the product is uncontrolled, no generics can exist in the market". This has become a popular way to extend patent protection lifetimes on some classes of drugs and probably needs to be clamped down on.

Note that getting a drug developed and through trials and FDA approval costs billions of dollars in the USA for a success, and you also have to cover the inevitable failures and still turn a profit. If you're going to rely on commercial development (and the fact that a lot of the basic research is government subsidized probably needs to be more heavily considered, here...), you have to provide SOME means of making back the money.

Now marketing costs...that's another matter.

[–]sspelak 31 points32 points  (4 children)

Yup. Prime example of evergreening is insulin. Same molecule, same adjuncts, minor changes to other active or inactive ingredients or maybe the manufacturing process. End result is $800 for 10mL of liquid.

[–]rodinj 111 points112 points  (25 children)

This will be however be very useful in other, poorer countries where they simply couldn't manufacture the vaccine because of the patents.

[–]Teantis 103 points104 points  (8 children)

Even lower middle income countries struggle to manufacture vaccines. But India and israel hace major generic pharma industries and will be very happy to be the supplier of the global south.

[–]cjsv7657 52 points53 points  (11 children)

Poorer countries don't care about US patents. You can't enforce US law outside of the US.

[–]_matterny_ 46 points47 points  (22 children)

That's illegal according to us anti monopoly rules.

[–]yerzo 135 points136 points  (0 children)

Like that has stopped American business before...

[–]MimeGod 42 points43 points  (4 children)

True. But they're not enforced. Mostly due to Congress people being almost universally funded by large companies that don't want competition.

[–]jfmherokiller 12 points13 points  (1 child)

just like how some ISP's have a "natural" monopoly on certain areas of the country.

[–]suggested-name-138 57 points58 points  (5 children)

Acetaminophen, Insulin. If it helps, this really is about the science. For simple drugs like acetaminophen anyone anywhere can follow a very simple set of instructions and end up with an exact copy of acetaminophen. Most drugs are like this. More complex drugs like insulin can't be replicated perfectly, so the FDA requires clinical trials be run.

And you're just outright incorrect on how markets behave when 10+ companies enter. Lipitor's generics entered at about a 98% discount to Lipitor, which is standard in hypercompetitive markets (lyrica, viagra, latuda, zytiga are a few I've seen similar data on)

Investigators evaluated AWP and NADAC price fluctuations from 2015 to 2020 for the top 1200 generic drugs in the company’s 2019 book of business. Over the period of investigation, they found that the NADAC price index deflated by 44%

NADAC prices are what pharmacies pay to buy the drugs from manufacturers, generic drugs account for >90% of all US prescriptions. While branded drugs are patent-enforced monopolies, generic drugs are the exact opposite - one is a monopoly, one is 10+ companies making the exact same thing. And believe it or not, it works. Generic drugs are cheap as hell, and have gotten 44% cheaper in the past 7 years, just not for patients.

FYI this is the entire principle behind mark cuban's website. Generic drugs are cheap as fuck (with major exceptions, this is about the bulk of US prescriptions).

Anyways none of this is relevant here, I don't actually understand what waving the patents accomplishes given that nothing remotely resembling a generic/biosimilar of an MRNA vaccine has ever existed. If COVID had happened 20+ years from now there probably would have been an attempt to make a biosimilar, but the entire concept of biosimilars is pretty new - I think there's about 20 total on market today across hundreds of biologic branded drugs.

[–]laptopaccount 57 points58 points  (0 children)

Just gonna point out that these companies are the death panel so many conservatives go on about.

Raising the price will reduce vaccination, thus causing more deaths. They're willing to let people die to make a bit more.

[–]shableep 163 points164 points  (22 children)

I imagine this might be why they're doing the price hike. So that they can make a bunch of money before other companies spin up their operations.

[–][deleted] 187 points188 points  (19 children)

I mean, you can go ahead and make the original COVID vaccine if you want (or a biosimilar), but it's not going to do much since the current circulating COVID is so different from the original strain. Because Moderna (and Pfizer) can update their strain, they feel they can update the pricing.

Honestly, it's shameful, predatory, and completely unsurprising behaviour for a drug company.

[–]Supra_Genius 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Remember, folks. That price hike only applies to the USA. Every civilized nation negotiates a bulk rate for meds from all providers...or else the providers get nothing from that country. And every time, the providers choose less profit over no profit at all. Imagine that?

Only in the USA do we put up with this kind of obscene blackmail as part of health insurance company parasites feeding off of American ProfitCare.

[–]DutchieTalking 9 points10 points  (7 children)

In 2019, Moderna made 60 million profit. Down from their 2017 high of 200 million profit.

In 2020 they made 800 million profit. Higher than the previous 4 years combined.

In 2021 they made 16 billion profit. Over 10 times the previous 5 years combined.

16 billion profit through massive government and private backing to help get out of a pandemic crisis.

deep sigh

Edit:
As per request, source for numbers: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MRNA/moderna/gross-profit

[–]Battystearsinrain 2034 points2035 points  (170 children)

The old privatize profits and socialize losses.

[–][deleted] 409 points410 points  (135 children)

If you talk to a conservatives they'll start talking to you about supply and demand and market forces, and fundamental truths about human behavior.

What they don't mention is that you can't divide by zero.

See, healthcare brings up the demand to infinity because you literally die if you don't get it so demand is infinite. And because of the time sensitive nature of life saving care, supply is unitary.

That means the equations start blowing up to absurd limits. Spoiler alert. Economics goes a little bit beyond econ 101, and things like healthcare, etc... are not properly served by market forces.

It's almost like, and I know this might blow your mind, but it's almost like not every problem is a hammer + nail type problem. Sometimes you need a hinge, or screw, or support beam. And the same is true for market forces.

Supply and Demand market forces work well for a lot of things, but it doesn't work AT ALL for healthcare because, as I described above, we have limits of supply going to unity and demand going infinite so the equations break down.

Don't apply market principles to health care. The two are at odds with one another.

[–]Upper_belt_smash 139 points140 points  (32 children)

Yep. Like if I told you that you have to buy a full size pickup truck within the next 30 minutes or you die you’ll probably go to the nearest dealership and buy whatever truck. Now if the dealership also knows you have to do this, what do you think happens to any negotiation?

[–][deleted] 112 points113 points  (40 children)

In went to high school in the UK and in our high school economics class we learned about market failures (we were like 16 years old). I then went to business school at a top 20 university in the US and realized that the majority of my peers did not understand the concept of a market failure let alone were able discuss some examples of them.

American economics/business education is purposefully broken.

[–]caterwaaul 21 points22 points  (20 children)

American here, went to both public & private schools and have never heard of market failures as a subject. Keynesian economics is all anyone talks about, and in smaller circles MMT. What factors categorize Market Failures (asking genuinely as I don't want to assume cuz its a pretty broadly named term)

Edit to add, I did not attend college and was not aware that economics is ONLY taught in college in the US. Yes. I am a US citizen since birth.

[–]ZilorZilhaust 2893 points2894 points  (94 children)

I really hate these assholes with every fiber of my being. "We can fuck you raw and dry so we will."

[–]AShellfishLover 572 points573 points  (20 children)

Hey, they're not fucking you dry on purpose. They just changed the formula of the lube slightly and now it's no longer generic so you need a prior authorization.

[–]ZilorZilhaust 141 points142 points  (16 children)

Which my insurance doesn't cover and the cost is $400 without so it's dry and that is for sure on purpose.

[–]AShellfishLover 38 points39 points  (12 children)

Well, I have been authorized to provide you with a single use of our new Spitunshov lubricant substitute. It is dispensed intra-anally by lingual application of our untrained PA Steve. Can I pencil you in at 8:35am on February 29th this year?

[–]ichuck1984 515 points516 points  (12 children)

I’m reading this as usage is down by half or more so here’s how we keep the champagne flowing.

[–]so2017 253 points254 points  (6 children)

As long as the feds were involved, it was hard to spike the price. Now that the feds are out and private insurers are in, it’s easy to spike the price.

Now imagine if the feds were bidding on all your drug and health care prices. People want to yell at Moderna here and I get that but private insurance is the problem.

[–]matt-AW 109 points110 points  (3 children)

No one seems to understand that private insurance is holding us hostage. Good on you for understanding the real issue.

[–]ThriftStoreDildo 22 points23 points  (1 child)

imagine liking having a fucking middle man lol

[–]danf10 1455 points1456 points  (67 children)

So no one is discussing increasing his income tax in 400%? It would be consistent with the value!

[–]floppydo 443 points444 points  (33 children)

400% increase on 0 is still 0.

[–]Dr-McLuvin 167 points168 points  (32 children)

For those wondering, his compensation was $18.2 million in 2021 and $12.9 million in 2020.

[–]thehalfwhiteguy 149 points150 points  (17 children)

I wonder if he actually did $6m more worth of work in 2021…. jk we all know that’s not true.

[–]Abrahams_Foreskin 141 points142 points  (27 children)

Rich people don't pay income tax, they pay capital gains tax and maybe property tax

[–]Snagmesomeweaves 77 points78 points  (26 children)

Can’t tax income when you just borrow against stocks to fund lifestyle then finally sell when the bill is due.

If they had w-2 income it would be taxed

[–]Unfrozen__Caveman 18 points19 points  (0 children)

That would be un-American. This CEO is doing the public a huge favor and technically he's probably losing money every year (somehow) so he should get a massive refund! /s

For real though, this is how modern America works.

Corporate donors pay government officials "campaign donations" to pass laws and cut taxpayer-funded deals in their favor, government buys ridiculously priced goods and cuts taxes for corporation, and they all make money from insider trading the entire time.

Our government is completely run by corporations and unless Citizens United gets overturned (which will never happen because the Supreme Court is corrupt) they're going to squeeze the life (literally) out of working class Americans until there's nothing left. Then they'll do it to some other country that poses a "threat to democracy".

[–]ThMogget 390 points391 points  (41 children)

The value of the patent government-enforced monopoly.

It did not get 400% more expensive to make, and would not have a 400% demand/supply ratio change if new entrants were allowed in the market.

This for a vaccine developed with generous government funding and guaranteed government purchases of initial product.

[–]giftman03 161 points162 points  (26 children)

So almost all costs subsidized by taxpayers, but all the profits realized by the pharma companies and their shareholders. We really need to Eat the Rich.

[–]ThMogget 62 points63 points  (3 children)

Yes, and all competitors are outlawed.

[–]MagicalGreenPenguin 439 points440 points  (91 children)

The value we gave to them with our money

[–][deleted] 45 points46 points  (2 children)

Moderna CEO: 400% price hike on COVID vaccine “because fuck you and suck my balls”

[–]Frank_Zahon 205 points206 points  (10 children)

“We care about people and just want them to be better” Said no pharmaceutical company ever

[–]teddytwelvetoes 322 points323 points  (38 children)

hilarious coming from a guy who I assume gets paid several lifetimes worth of money, every single year, to be the person who watches the money-printer/actual workers. please tell me more about value, mister business man

[–]TheFBIClonesPeople 40 points41 points  (3 children)

Yeah, when was the last time one of his employees got a pay raise that was consistent with their value?

[–]iFartRainbowsForReal 7 points8 points  (0 children)

pay raise? you have a job - congratulations. if you don't like it, they'll turn up the "layoff" faucet. job market is starting to turn back to shit (already there, actually).

[–][deleted] 109 points110 points  (5 children)

Didn't the taxpayers fund the development of this drug? It should be public domain as far as I'm concerned.

[–]KyleMcMahon 44 points45 points  (1 child)

Unfortunately, the taxpayer funds the development of most drugs.

[–]SomeKindofTreeWizard 287 points288 points  (29 children)

So... we paid for the R&D. Paid for it to be produced and distributed. And we get price gouged when congress no longer covers it?

... maybe we don't protest enough in America?

[–]deanfortythree 142 points143 points  (44 children)

Why have we not just... revolted against these people? We threw tea in a harbor over unfair taxes. The entire american healthcare system needs to be thrown out and monsters like this held accountable.

[–]zookeepier 29 points30 points  (5 children)

That's a good question. Why haven't you? Why aren't you at their headquarters protesting right now? Your answer to that question is probably the same for 95% of the rest of people.

[–]k3nnyd 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Because everything on the news was "brought to you by Pfizer!" and everyone ate that shit up.

[–]ApatheticWithoutTheA 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Sorry Grandma, the value to shareholders of pumping this vaccine 400% is far more valuable than your life.

Good luck tho!

[–]Wattledaub 48 points49 points  (2 children)

Paid for by US taxpayers 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[–]Procrasturbating 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Value to consumer pricing for healthcare is bullshit. Need a pill that costs $2 to produce and has been around forever, but not taking it will mean a horrible death? Value based pricing means they can charge $100,000 for that $2 pill. More like screw you for all you are worth pricing. Capitalism in healthcare will always result in people dying for profit. How do we keep voting for assholes that wont put universal healthcare in place?

[–]Dblstandard 55 points56 points  (7 children)

"consist with value" does not equal "consistent with costs plus reasonable profit"

What's that thing worth? With the market will pay for it. That's what he's saying, he's not saying it's consistent with the cost price to produce.

[–]HippyHitman 35 points36 points  (2 children)

Literally any time someone in a suit says “value” you’re being scammed. It’s a word with no definition that can mean anything anyone wants.

[–]NeonFishFace 104 points105 points  (18 children)

I hope all of these price increasing ghouls get covid and die.

[–]ArmyOfDix 31 points32 points  (3 children)

And I could compromise on the covid part.

[–]healthandefficency 9 points10 points  (0 children)

There are few crimes as awful as what they do

[–]marioz64 182 points183 points  (130 children)

Gets $130 shot that used to cost $26. Still gets covid. Mfw

[–][deleted] 13 points14 points  (2 children)

Ethical values should always come before financial value. The man is human dirt. Pharmaceutical industries need to put saving lives ahead of profit.

[–]Temporary-Outside-13 12 points13 points  (0 children)

You want to live right? Give us your paycheck

[–]RageMojo 10 points11 points  (1 child)

We are way, way past time to start chopping fucking heads off in the town center.

[–]Professor-Rage 26 points27 points  (1 child)

Just like a street drug dealer. First doses are free.

[–]OldsDiesel 50 points51 points  (2 children)

Medical corporations over a certain size should be banned. You wonder why antivax people think its a scam. It sort of is in certain regards.

[–]oldcreaker 53 points54 points  (1 child)

You can be a major corporation and price gouge on vaccines and life saving medications all you want - but watch out if you're some gas station owner trying to charge extra for a few jugs of water after a storm, that's unethical and unacceptable and they'll send you to jail for it.

[–]Therocknrolclown 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Didn’t they use taxpayer money to fund the research on the vaccine and the method of delivery…..

[–]NutInMyCouchCushions 9 points10 points  (2 children)

iite bet guess that’s the last covid vaccine for me

[–]Melodic-Jackfruit632 44 points45 points  (7 children)

Nationalize the Pharmaceutical industry and healthcare!

[–]BelatedGreeting 16 points17 points  (6 children)

Three things should not be for profit: Education, Security, and Health Care. Private? Sure. For profit? No.

[–]cjc323 38 points39 points  (10 children)

Put him in Jail

[–]Elliott2 42 points43 points  (8 children)

I got the original vaccine but if I’m gonna need this every 6 months and still get it anyways I’m sorry I’m out

[–]mrphyslaww 6 points7 points  (2 children)

Does cost correspond with efficacy? Or is that an inverse relationship?

[–]Relictorum 13 points14 points  (2 children)

Moderna CEO: I have no morals, and profit is everything. Human lives and suffering only matter if I can make a profit on it.

[–]bigkoi 114 points115 points  (86 children)

Nope. Vax needs to be 90%+ effective to justify the cost increase.

The last vax wasn't as effective as the previous ones.

Right now the Covid shots are similar to flu shots.

We need a real Vax for Covid .

[–]noltey 50 points51 points  (30 children)

That may be a hard ask, tell me why we don’t have 90%+ effective flu vaccines? Because these viruses are constantly evolving. I think realistically we’ll always be playing catch up to a certain extent. The mRNA technology was more of a game changer because it allowed the vaccine to be developed quickly but it constantly needs to be updated.

[–]BD401 8 points9 points  (2 children)

You hit the nail on the head with always being in catch-up mode. At the rate at which Omicron is mutating (new "problem variants" every two or three months), we'll never be able to beat it through vaccine updates. We have the ability to update the vaccine itself incredibly fast (literally a matter of days) thanks to mRNA tech - but the regulatory cycle time for safety and efficacy testing - not to mention producing and distributing updates - seems to be around 9 to 12 months at a minimum.

The other issue that I've seen coming up more and more frequently in the COVID science subs (less so the "for the plebes" ones like r/coronavirus) is immunological imprinting. There were a bunch of pre-prints that dropped last month suggesting that while the bivalent vaccine is better than the monovalent one, it's not that much better. The thinking is this is likely because vaccines tweaked for new variants are primarily inducing the original immune response to the OG virus, rather than developing a more updated response specific to omicron. This doesn't surprise me, given the number of people I know that got the bivalent only a few months ago and still had breakthrough cases over the holidays.

Unfortunately, I'm skeptical we're ever going to see a return to those early trials in late 2020 where the efficacy against symptomatic infection rate was in the mid-to-high 90s.