Straight off the mark, reading a lot comparing this to the GME split.. it is not the same.. not even close. GME did a 4 for 1 split. For every GME share you had, you received 3 more. However, the share price dropped to 25%. Easy math... you had 10 shares at $160 each, after the split you now had 40 shares at $40 each.
APE is different... you have 10 AMC shares, you get an additional 10 APE shares.
Understood? Great... let's move on with 3 relevant questions:
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Do AMC shorts have to cover in the next 11 days? No they do not.
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Should AMC shorts cover in the next 11 days? I would say yes because if they do not, they have to supply 1 APE share for each AMC share they are short.
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Can AMC shorts cover in the next 11 days? If there are billions of synthetics in circulation as many believe, then it is highly unlikely they can, certainly not without creating a massive run on the share price.
So, IMO it is possible that we may see some retail or smaller shorts cover in the run up to record date, but I think the bigger bad boys will not (or simply cannot). That being said, parallel to what the shorts may or may not do, there is the additional (and more interesting matter) of FOMO. You see, we are talking about a ticker symbol APE... I don't know how many self proclaimed APES there are out there but I estimate 10s of millions. It is fair to think that the majority of APES around the world would want to own APE shares, wouldn't you think?
Buying AMC up until record date entitles you to FREE APE shares.. simple! Or you can wait until APE is trading and buy them on the open market... but I doubt many APE holders would be willing to sell at low prices and who knows how quickly the price goes up.. Remember, it cannot go down if it starts at a penny!
So what happens after APE distribution?
Well, I think most of us will see our APE shares arrive on our trading accounts as would be expected. Absolutely no idea where the AMC share price will be on the date of APE distribution. There will be the usual posts flying around about people not receiving their APE shares.. especially international shareholders of AMC.
It is at this point when I think it starts to get interesting.. I think APE will be in high demand, I sincerely doubt there will be anywhere near enough APE to go around. Even if there are only 500 million synthetic AMC shares out there (and that is a big if), it will mean brokers will need to find an additional 500 million APE shares to fully deliver on their dividend obligations to AMC share holders. And as stated above, I doubt very much that recipients of APE will be in a hurry to sell their APE shares, especially if the initial price is low..
So, in theory, if there is a high demand for APE shares from both MMs trying to deliver the dividend on top of FOMO to own APE... we could see some interesting price movement.
Remembering however, these cheating ducks often find a loophole and a way to beat the system... but at the end of the day, they will have to deliver an APE share for every AMC they have shorted or illegally created.. The more synthetics they have created, the more they will have to find. If AA has somehow created the perfect storm for them and they will finally be exposed, well I would hope a share count is demanded by AMC and we see what comes.
I guess we will wait and see but at the very least, I would expect a high level of FOMO buying in the run up to record date... I want to own APE shares as I am sure millions of others do.
What will be the short to mid term impact on AMC?
This is also a very interesting scenario. APE is not only a dividend but a way for Adam to generate future income to pay off debt. Let's say for arguments sake, the APE share price sky rockets... as it theoretically should... with no supply and huge demand. AA could sell additional APE shares in the future (APE dilution) which would give them more cash. This cash pays off debt... Actually quite poetic when you think about it... I can see the headlines.. 'APES pay off AMC debt'.
Diluting APE should not affect the AMC share price because the AMC share count remains the same. AMC gets stronger and stronger.. No need to dilute and eventually... debt is paid off and we start talking cash dividends every quarter..
As always, none of this is financial advice but I see a lot of interesting scenarios with APE.. and none of them are bearish!