Canelo Alvarez is set to face a tough challenge on May 7th in Dmitry Bivol, and I personally think that Canelo will struggle a bit, but will find his comfort zone after awhile and eventually find an opening and score a stoppage, just like his last two fights. The reasons as to why I think that Bivol will end up no different than Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant come May 7th will be stated in the following paragraphs.
Reason #1: Size
At first glance, Canelo moving up to 175 to challenge one of its title holders may sound a bit ballsy, but Canelo is no stranger to jumping up and dropping down several different weight classes, heck, he's even made a bigger jump than what he is doing now back in 2019. After he defeated Daniel Jacobs at 160, he jumped up two weight classes to take on Sergey "The Krusher" Kovalev. And what's even more crazy is that Canelo at 168 for his past few fights is actually bigger than the Canelo that fought Kovalev at 175, meaning that his power will carry over more effectively, as if he didn't already have power when he brutally knocked Kovalev out back in 2019 at 175. Now when we look at Dmitry Bivol, he isn't necessarily the biggest 175 pounder out there. He stands at 6 feet tall (allegedly) with a 72 inch reach, which at this point, Canelo has faced enough people Bivol's height or taller with even more reach to be used to the size difference. Caleb Plant is 6'1" with a reach that spans 2 more inches than Bivol's, and let's not forget Callum Smith, standing at 6'3" with a reach 6 inches longer than Bivol's. I also reckon that Plant, Saunders and Smith are not far off weight-wise from Bivol, I've heard that Dmitry walks around in the early-mid 180s, not that much for a guy that cuts to 175 pounds.
Reason #2: Power and Durability
We all know that Canelo is an explosive puncher, being able to finish people with 1 punch, or break them down for several rounds until they can't handle it anymore, but what about Bivol? I'd actually say that Bivol has more power than Canelo's previous two opponents in Plant and Saunders, but still relies on his skills and fancies out-boxing opponents to a 12 round decision just like those two, especially after the increase in competition, hence why he has went the distance in his last six. So there's a power advantage for Canelo. As for durability, we all know Canelo has a granite chin, taking shots from Gennadiy "GGG" Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev, but the same question arises now as it did after I discussed Canelo's power, what about Bivol? Well, not much was known about Bivol's durability, until he faced a scary power puncher in Joe Smith Jr. At the end of round 10 in their fight, Smith hit Bivol with an absolute bomb of a right hand, Bivol looked a little stunned after it, and his legs were shaky, but he walked it off back to his corner and went on to win the fight by UD. So both of these fighters have good chins, I tend to think Canelo has a better one, but Bivol took a big shot from arguably a bigger puncher than Canelo in Joe Smith Jr.
Reason #3: Tendencies, experience, and overall boxing skill
Dmitry Bivol is for sure a master of the basics, he doesn't do anything crazy or unique, he has just perfected the sweet science with a high guard, good footwork and foot positioning, a good jab, solid combinations, and great defense. He tends to leave his body a little exposed with that super high guard of his, which should worry you if you're a Bivol fan, because when he goes against Canelo with that high guard, it's free real estate for Canelo. Now, another thing that should scare a Bivol fan is Canelo's experience with slick boxers, especially with his last two fights. Canelo has fought so much talent throughout 154 all the way to 168, he was schooled and learned so much from Floyd Mayweather, he beat Lara in a tough fight, he knocked out the super quick Amir Khan brutally, he took Daniel Jacobs to school, and he broke down Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant, scoring finishes on both of them. Overall, Bivol may have some real skills, but Canelo has seen a lot with his 60 fights, Bivol will give him a little trouble in my opinion, but Canelo's experience will allow him to make adjustments in a fight that he might not have been able to 7, 6, 5, and even 4 years ago.
Prediction:
My official prediction for this fight is as follows. Bivol gives trouble to Canelo early on, winning most of the early rounds, with them all still being relatively close as Canelo is downloading the data and hanging in there with punches and body work of his own. Rounds 5 and 6 are Canelo's, Canelo is really starting to lay it on Bivol with those body shots, left hooks, chopping right hands, stiff jabs, and overall pace, Bivol continues to fight back however. Rounds 7-9, Bivol is bleeding, his body is beaten up and bruised, he's not as fresh as he was early on, and his corner are considering the towel. Round 10 is when the stoppage occurs, Canelo is laying a beatdown on Dmitry Bivol. I have it in my mind that Canelo will drop him at least once, but I don't know if it will be via a body shot, a left hook to the head, or a right hand. Either way, Canelo scores a TKO on Dmitry Bivol, because I don't see him rendering him fully unconscious, but I do see the towel being thrown in, the referee stopping the fight, or the closest thing to a full KO, Bivol getting dropped once or twice, then the referee waves it off before even counting, similar to the Caleb Plant stoppage.
What's your predictions? Are you gonna be in Las Vegas come May? And last but not least, is Canelo still "ducking" Andrade and Charlo?