Posts about Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict
MOD: The Azerbaijani army violated the ceasefire by using mortars and drones against Armenian positions starting at 7:50 a.m. on Friday. //
MOD released footage showing an accumulation of Azerbaijani equipment near the border: video.
3 KIA and 2 WIA on the Armenian side.
The Armenian army used drones against Azeri troops. They had 3 WIA as of Friday morning, with another report stating 5 KIA by afternoon.
A video was published reportedly showing an Armenian drone dropping a munition at Azeri soldiers, wounding 2 of them.
The second video was published later showing an Azeri soldier being struck by a munition dropped from a drone.
The aforementioned Azeri soldiers were located within the sovereign territory of Armenia. They invaded these territories in 2022.
Government: All units of the armed forces of Azerbaijan must be withdrawn from the sovereign territory of Armenia. Azerbaijan must end the illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Ambassador-at-large Marukyan: Azerbaijan's attack is a direct damage to the mediation efforts of the USA, France, and EU. It is a direct damage to the ongoing peace negotiation process and a violation of all of Azerbaijan's commitments to date. This aggression must be stopped immediately and the aggressor must be held responsible.
REPORTER: What can you tell us about the attack?
ANDRANIK KOCHARYAN (defense official): Azeri soldiers opened fire while our troops were organizing a routine rotation in their positions. What I can tell you is that our army is in better shape now, and Azeri ceasefire violations are no longer going unanswered. Our soldiers fired back.
Azeri soldiers must understand that these ceasefire violations won't solve anything. They must exercise discipline and not open fire during our troop rotation process or whenever we do engineering work with heavy equipment. They will receive an answer if they do.
REPORTER: Did Azerbaijan use a mortar against one of our vehicles?
ANDRANIK: Yes. Our losses were caused by the shrapnel. It didn't go unanswered. This isn't 2021 when they could brazenly open fire thinking there wouldn't be consequences.
REPORTER: Is there an accumulation of forces by Azerbaijan?
ARTSRUN: Azerbaijan has brought artillery units closer to the border, as you saw in the video, but it's not in large quantities.
REPORTER: We saw videos of Armenian drones dropping munitions on Azeri soldiers. It looked like Ukrainians using their now-famous quadcopters. Does this show progress?
ARTSRUN: This isn't the first time our army has used them, but it's the first time it was revealed in HD. These drones are great but to win modern wars you need bigger weapons.
REPORTER: How much time does Armenia need to restore its military after the 2020 losses?
ARTSRUN: If we maintain the intensity of ongoing reforms, which we've witnessed especially over the past year, within the next 1-2 years we will have an army that's better and more modern than our 2020 army. I don't like openly discussing our accomplishments and purchases from other countries. Keep quiet and work, keep quiet and buy, keep quiet and manufacture.
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Charles Michel's plan: The step-by-step approach would reflect a sequencing in the full-fledged operation of the Lachin corridor and the opening of the Agdam route.
Sequencing of these steps and the type of cargo that would be delivered by each of these roads, as well as attendant procedures, have been the core of the recent discussions.
The EU strongly believes the Lachin corridor must be unblocked, in line with past agreements and the World Court Order. The use of the Agdam road to provide supplies can also be part of a sustainable solution to the provision of urgent and daily basic needs.
Exchanges have also focused on restoring electricity and gas supplies to Karabakh Armenians as soon as possible.
Dialogue between Baku and representatives of Armenians living in the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast will be essential in this regard. The rights and security of Karabakh Armenians must be guaranteed and discussions on specific modalities should start as soon as possible. //
The foreign ministry of Azerbaijan called Washington's statement "unacceptable" and claimed that the corridor isn't closed, despite the Azerbaijani president's admission that it is.
Congress's Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission will hold a hearing to discuss the report by Luis Moreno Ocampo, the former Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, who concluded that Azerbaijan is carrying out ethnic cleansings in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Luis Moreno Ocampo will be on the witness panel.
4 amendments have been proposed to the Defense Appropriations Act (HR4365) to prohibit U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan and direct President Joe Biden to break the Lachin blockade.
What's in the amendments?
(1) Do not allocate the funds necessary for supplying arms to Azerbaijan.
(2) Do not send any military aid to Azerbaijan that could be used against Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh.
(3) Do not allocate funds for the protection of Azerbaijani borders.
(4) DO allocate $1 million to relevant U.S. agencies to help end the Lachin blockade and deliver humanitarian aid to Nagorno-Karabakh.
The sign: "Republic of Artsakh Square. In support of peace, democracy, and human rights."
Sputnik administration said they will resume the broadcast when Azerbaijan gives authorization. It's Nikol's fault, said Vladimir Kiselyov.
Russia had earlier warned Armenia about "extremely negative consequences" for bilateral relations if it's ratified. The Armenian Government gave reassurances that it was not aimed against Russia, and subsequently postponed the decision to ratify it, until now.
Armenia's ratification of the statute would theoretically obligate the country to arrest those for whom the [International Criminal Court] has issued arrest orders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, if they visit the country
Therefore, ratification would be a significant sign of Armenia's efforts to reduce alignment with Russia
Armenian Government says the ratification's goal is to bring war crimes cases against the Azerbaijani military.
KAREN: What's happening in Ukraine?
ARTSRUN: Critics have pointed to a lack of "breakthrough" to suggest Ukraine's assault has failed. But this isn't a classical assault. Instead of starting from the frontline and reaching the depths, Ukraine is doing it reversed. They started by destroying Russia's logistics routes, storage facilities, command centers, and bridges located in the rear. It's meant to isolate and weaken the Russian troops on the frontline.
As we speak, Ukrainian forces have broken through the first defense line in Robotine. There are reports that this settlement has been captured.
Now Ukraine will insert several Brigades along its mobile reserves that are equipped with Western armored vehicles. There will be fierce battles. If Ukraine breaks through the 3rd defense line, they will reach the Sea of Azov.
Ukraine's job will be very difficult. The last time this type of [multi-layered defense line named after Surovikin] was successfully breached was by the U.S. army in southern Iraq in 1991.
USSR grossly exaggerated the Finnish defense line (Mannerheim Line) claiming it was all covered in concrete, etc. It's all a myth. Only ~60 of the 214 firing positions were concrete. The rest was mud, wood, and simple machine guns. In their attempt to breach this line, the USSR had to fire 46,000 units of 203mm artillery shells, carry out 80,000 flights, and utilize 2.5 armies (each 100,000).
Soviet Gen. Zhukov was tasked with breaching the Berlin defense. He had 11 armies, 2 aviation armies, and 2 tank armies. I want you to understand the density. The narrowest frontline that the USSR could breach was 27 km. For each 1 km, they brought 360 artillery pieces and dropped tons and tons of bombs on German heads.
Now back to the U.S. assault on Iraq in 1991. It lasted 42 days. During the first 38 days, U.S. aviation conducted 110,000 combat flights. This was followed by 2.5 hours of heavy artillery prep work with 90,000 shells, and only then they proceeded to roll the tanks.
Do you see the density of preparatory work in these examples? Ukraine has launched its offensive with insufficient assault power. No air superiority, which is mandatory for the attacker; not enough artillery density; not enough armored vehicles, they don't have a 3x advantage.
This is why it may appear that Ukraine's strategic goal is unachievable. In my opinion, this operation, as of right now, is generally slow but sufficiently fast considering the aforementioned ratio of forces.
We've seen Ukraine successfully use small drones to fly long distances or use long-range missiles to target bridges. Imagine what they could do if they had the numbers.
KAREN: Why did Russia withdraw troops from elsewhere and deploy them in the Kupiansk [north] direction?
ARTSRUN: Germans had realized that since they could face a numerically superior force, they couldn't keep very large reserves, so they'd need to maneuver with whatever reserves they had by deploying them in the right location at the right time.
Today both sides are attempting that approach. Russia attacked Kupiansk to prevent Ukrainian reserves located in this direction from being used elsewhere to achieve a breakthrough.
Ukraine, with the help of NATO's intel, is maneuvering its reserves better. They are focused on Robotine right now, but at any time they could quickly deploy these reserves elsewhere if necessary. They have this ability. They still have the German-made Marders, Swedish CV90s, and a bunch of other reserves.
Russia, after the unsuccessful assault on Kupiansk, is moving its forces to close the hole in Robotine.
KAREN: But they have to travel a long distance from Kupiansk to Robotine. There is no "straight line".
ARTSRUN: That makes their job even more difficult. Russia is losing this battle of reserve maneuverability. They also haven't announced the second mobilization yet. Now would be the time to conclude it, but they haven't even launched it yet. Last time when they delayed the first mobilization it cost them the Kharkiv region.
This is why, at a minimum, I won't rule out that this particular Ukrainian assault could succeed by November.
Let's forget about the F-16 jets for a second. If Ukraine could receive 200 pieces of ATACMS, the American equivalent of Iskander, it could change everything.
KAREN: Let's not forget how a couple of HIMARs changed the weather. Let's talk about F-16. They are already training Ukrainian pilots. Germany plans to buy 100 Leopard-1 tanks from Greece for Ukraine.
ARTSRUN: Bradley, Marder, and CV90 armored vehicles will bring more benefits during this assault than the old Leopard-1 tanks.
Even Russian analysts admit now that Ukraine's ordinary artillery units, thanks to Ukraine's Western-oriented strategy, are superior to Russian artillery. Ukraine's 155mm artillery is more precise, has a longer reach, work far apart from each other, receives info from satellites, etc. The German artillery doctrine utilized by Russia is dying. The U.S. doctrine is winning.
There is also a political component. The government must have a very clear understanding of what it wants and what the objectives are. Lack of clear objectives leads to defeat during a war of attrition.
Let's look at the U.S.'s defeat in Vietnam. Gen. LeMay said that they lost the war because the targets of B-52 bombers were being provided by President Lyndon Johnson every morning, instead of the Generals. He was making a good point. The political leadership did not set forth clear objectives for the military.
Russia's political leadership has the same problem today. Whatever the Russian soldiers accomplish heroically, in the end, they are going to have an outcome that's unclear.
KAREN: I can't imagine heroism by Russian soldiers.
ARTSRUN: There are many instances of individual heroism.
KAREN: (falls into depression deeper than Mariana Trench)
ARTSRUN: But it's not just Russia. Western governments are also politically timid and cautious.
KAREN: But the West has announced that it will support Ukraine until every Russian soldier leaves Ukraine.
ARTSRUN: What really counts is the level of delivered support. Ukraine has 24 HIMARs, not 200. They don't even have every caliber of missiles. The West is delivering soon-to-be-outdated types of missiles. Jets aren't there yet; they hesitated to send them in 2022. The West is politically cautious.
KAREN: The West doesn't want to escalate it into a direct conflict against Russia.
ARTSRUN: Exactly. That's why they are hesitant.
KAREN: They are also dealing with MAGA people who [support isolationism]. If they ramp up the military support now, it could backfire.
ARTSRUN: You are confirming my point. The West is cautious and hesitant. The West is not arming Ukraine with both hands. They approved, then disapproved, then approved the supply of jets.
Washington Post is telling fairy tales about Ukraine using 2,000,000 shells therefore "that's too much, the U.S. doesn't have enough reserves", yadda yadda. Tell that to children. The U.S. reserves were calculated to hold tens or hundreds of millions of munitions, and I'm confident they do. The size of reserves was calculated with the Cold War in mind. The U.S. left the Cold War with about 40,000 artillery units. 12,000 of them were preserved in great condition. They must have a sufficient number of munitions stored somewhere. They just aren't sure if they want to deliver them to Ukraine.
KAREN: Is the West betraying Ukraine?
ARTSRUN: Not at all.
KAREN: There is a firm political decision in the West to help Ukraine win the war. How and when they deliver weapons depends on how many internal barriers they must go through.