I’ll probably get crucified for this post, but I don’t care. A lot of you need to see it. Obviously we’re all extremely frustrated with the team’s performance in the past few weeks, but AJ had an excellent offseason and his moves have been a major boon for this team recently. Let’s review.
Padres received: Jorge Alfaro Marlins received: $400K
Verdict: W | Alfaro is easily the best catcher on the team and we got him for nothing. It’s really as simple as that.
Padres received: Sean Manaea (4.09 ERA) and Aaron Holiday (4.65 ERA in Low-A) Athletics received: Adrian Martinez (5.63 ERA in AAA, 6.52 ERA in MLB) and Euribiel Angeles (.633 OPS in 293 ABs at High-A)
Verdict: W | We got a decent 3rd or 4th starter for two slapdicks that likely won’t do shit in MLB. This was a really good move.
Padres received: Taylor Rogers (4.04 ERA, 24/29 saves) and Brent Rooker (1.010 OPS in AAA) Twins received: Emilio Pagan (4.99 ERA, 9/14 saves) and Chris Paddack (4.03 ERA in 5 starts, won’t play again until 2024)
Verdict: W | Went from a fleece to only a slight win due to how hard Rogers has fallen off, but we dodged a bullet with Paddack and moving Pagan was literally addition by subtraction. Also consider that the Twins are paying Rogers’ contract to keep us under the luxury tax. If Rogers rebounds, this trade is a fleece again.
Padres received: Luke Voit (.718 OPS in 248 ABs, 0.5 WAR) Yankees received: Justin Lange (9.37 ERA in Rookie ball)
Verdict: W | As it stands, we got a serviceable DH with upside for a risky young prospect with great stuff but serious command issues. If Voit gets anywhere close to his career .860 OPS, which is likely given enough ABs and positive regression, this trade is a fleece. Yankees fans’ reactions to this trade speak volumes.
Padres received: Ray Kerr (9.00 ERA in MLB, 3.86 ERA in AAA) and Corey Rosier (.744 OPS in 265 ABs at High-A) Mariners received: Adam Frazier (.595 OPS in 319 ABs, -0.7 WAR) Pirates received: Tucupita Marcano (.637 OPS in 70 MLB ABs) Jack Suwinski (.719 OPS, 14 HRs in 221 MLB ABs), and Michell Miliano (8.14 ERA in High-A)
Verdict: L | Obviously losing Suwinski sucks, even though he’s slightly overrated by this sub. I believe Marcano won’t even stick around in MLB let alone make an impact, but that remains to be seen. Miliano is too young to judge but right now his future looks bleak. Adam Frazier was poor for us, but he’s been abysmal in Seattle. At least Preller recognized his mistake and dumped Frazier for prospects because now he has absolutely zero value.
Padres received: Bob Melvin Athletics received: John Fisher’s naked ass
Verdict: W | Bob Melvin is a great veteran manager who is greatly respected by players. His bullpen management has been questionable at times, but he’s exactly what this crazy Padres clubhouse needed after a disastrous 2021. Many of you forget that Melvin could’ve gone anywhere, but he chose to go to the Padres after having dinner with AJ multiple times. If he believes in Preller, you should too.
Farm System
The Padres farm system is still strong despite multiple trades, almost entirely because Preller is an excellent scout. Among updated 2022 rankings, we’re currently ranked #6 by B/R and #13 by FanGraphs. We’re not a team that’s mortgaged the future in order to win-now like the Braves. Over in the Giants sub, they’re basically looking forward to rebuilding and graduating prospects. But we actually have a better farm system than them and their 2021 Cinderella story is over. You don’t see them calling for Farhan Zaidi to be fired.
In conclusion, AJ Preller’s recent moves have been really good. The vast majority of his disastrous moves (signing Eric Hosmer, extending Wil Myers, etc.) happened over 4 years ago. In fairness, these players are still seriously hurting the team, but Myers’ contract is up after this season and Preller has been trying to offload Hosmer. The Nola trade is his most recent big mistake, and that was back in 2020. That’s the same year he traded for Cronenworth, mind you. You can disparage the Snell trade all you want because of how maddeningly inconsistent he’s been despite having ace potential, but the reality is that Patiño hasn’t done shit yet and Mejia has been absolute garbage, far worse than Nola.
AJ seems to have learned from his mistakes early in his tenure or maybe he’s being reigned in by the rest of the Padres FO. Despite incessant whining by much of our fanbase, Preller did the right thing at the 2021 deadline by mostly standing pat. The Blue Jays massively overpaid for Jose Berrios (who many of you begged for) by trading two Top 100 prospects. Now he’s fallen off a cliff (5.38 ERA, -0.4 WAR) and the Jays just fired their manager. If this team misses the playoffs, Preller deserves to be on the hot seat. But you guys need to chill the fuck out. Firing AJ Preller will not get rid of Eric Hosmer.