Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine as an offensive by Moscow to take territory before western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace.
Footage posted by Kremlin military bloggers shows a Russian tricolour flying above the shattered village of Ocheretyne. Russian troops reportedly entered the territory on Sunday, north-west of the town of Avdiivka, after advancing about 5km in 10 days.
It comes as Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was suspending consular services for military-age men living abroad, except for those heading back to Ukraine, in a move designed to increase conscription.
The Ukrainian army retreated from Avdiivka in February and has been trying to establish a new defensive line in settlements along the Durna River but in recent weeks reinforced Russian units have been pushing forward, using air-launched glide bombs to pulverise Ukrainian bunkers.
Moscow’s defence ministry claimed Ukrainian troops fled Ocheretyne in small groups and under heavy fire. Video showed a destroyed administration building, with its windows blown out and streets full of debris. Civilians appeared to have left.
Its capture means Russia has managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently constructed forward line, including minefields and trenches. The village – once home to 3,000 people, and a local road and rail hub – sits at the intersection of a network of defences.
Ukraine’s regional armed forces HQ admitted the situation was difficult. It said the Russians were using an “entire arsenal of weapons against our units” including what it described as chemical weapons. They had captured some buildings and taken over the southern part of Ocheretyne, it said. It added that the “majority of the village” remained in Ukrainian hands, with the situation under control.
Russian forces are within about 30km of Pokrovsk, the main garrison city in the area, used to rotate soldiers and equipment, which appears to be the next operational Russian target. Vladimir Putin has ordered his soldiers to capture the administrative borders of the Donetsk region.
Farther north, a large Russian offensive is under way to seize the town of Chasiv Yar. Ukraine’s eastern military command said 20,000-25,000 enemy troops are trying to storm the hilltop town and surrounding districts. The Kremlin wants to capture it by 9 May – the date when Russians mark Soviet victory day in the second world war, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said.
Russian combat groups may not have an “indefinite timeframe” to exploit their recent battlefield successes, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said. “The Russian military command is likely aware of the closing window before more western aid arrives and is trying to secure offensive gains before the window closes,” it said in a briefing on Monday.
Much-needed shells sourced through a Czech-led initiative for Ukraine are due to arrive by the end of May or early June and Joe Biden, the US president, is expected to sign a $61bn aid package after its passage in the Senate, meaning the Pentagon is likely within a few days to deliver some supplies from storage sites in Europe, such as 155mm artillery rounds.
The ISW said even the ratio of artillery fire “will be essential to Ukraine’s ability to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow the rate of ongoing Russian advances in areas of the front such as the Avdiivka direction”.
But other weapons and systems will take weeks and months. Zelenskiy said new US weapons would help Kyiv to regain the initiative, in his latest video address. He said Ukraine needed more Patriot air defence systems to “protect the sky”, as well as modern artillery and a “long-range capability”. Zelenskiy hailed an agreement for the Biden administration for the first time to deliver Atacms missiles, which have a 300km range.
Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline have complained they are completely outgunned and forced to ration ammunition. Russia is able to fire at least six shells for every Ukrainian one, they said, and Moscow has more tanks and fighting vehicles as well. The Russian army also has a larger number of infantry, and frequently deploys them in “meat grinder” attacks. At least 50,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, according to a BBC study.
Earlier this month Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, lowered the draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25. But as the situation worsens on the battlefield and casualties mount, growing numbers of men have left the country or are considering doing so; while those wishing to sign up did so a long time ago.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on X that he had ordered measures on consular services to be taken to restore “fair treatment” for men of mobilisation age.
He said: “How it looks like now: a man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state. It does not work this way. Our country is at war.”
Since Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, men between the ages of 18 and 60 have to stay in Ukraine, with certain exceptions. The Eurostat database estimates about 4.3 million Ukrainians were registered in European Union countries as of January, 2024 of whom about 20% are adult men, roughly 860,000 people.
