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Those questionable comparison surveys

You may receive, as I do, emails and reports from online organizations about research purporting to show how Oregon stacks up to other states in various ways.

Don’t trust them.

One recent report said that among the 50 states, Oregon has the fifth highest rate of religious discrimination – a topic that’s emerged in presidential politics.

Republicans have appealed to conservative Christians by alleging religious victimization, and presidential candidate Donald Trump even offered to declare a Christian visibility day if elected. Democrats say much of the victimization argument is thinly supported, while the Biden administration has categorized some regulatory changes in social services as designed to protect religious freedom.

The report listed five states atop the list – Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Washington and Oregon – all are Democratic-leaning.

Could this be another instance of skewed data in support of an ideology?

An online publication, New American, headlined the results with this point: “States Biden Won in 2020 Lead – in Religious Discrimination Complaints.” The article added, “Of the 15 states with the most religious discrimination complaints, 11 are among the 15 most atheistic states.” It failed to mention that deep-red Idaho immediately follows Oregon in sixth place.

But what does this ranking even mean? The core data comes from credible sources. The state rankings were developed by the Boston law firm Duddy, Goodwin and Pollard, which specializes in employment law, based on underlying data from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. In Oregon, those cases are overseen by the Bureau of Labor and Industries, and Oregon has its own rules on religious discrimination.

However.

As the EEOC reference suggests, we’re talking here strictly about employment discrimination –- hiring, firing, job conditions and harassment and similar subjects. Other areas where religious discrimination might be alleged – in housing, education, health and other areas – weren’t part of the analysis.

Second, the rates in the study didn’t relate to how many cases of religious discrimination were alleged based on population, but rather they were based on a percentage of all kinds of employment discrimination charges. So if, for example, Mississippi, which had the lowest religion-based percentage, had a higher percentage of other forms of discrimination, that would lower the religious percentage, even if the number happened to be higher than Oregon’s.

The New American article even suggested another concern about the lack of data on religious complaints.

“To what extent is today’s fashionable Christophobia at issue and to what degree are these politically correct complaints (e.g., allegations of anti-Muslim bias)? And how does this vary state by state?”

A September 2020 analysis from the University of Washington, the fourth ranking state, said “Muslims and atheists in the United States are more likely than those of Christian faiths to experience religious discrimination, according to new research led by the University of Washington.”

On top of that, the causes of religious discrimination cited in the data were scrambled, with data thrown together from during and after the pandemic, when debates roared over who would be required to take protective actions, such as getting a vaccine or the temporary closure of churches –  issues that cut widely across cultural and political lines.

None of that means, of course, that discrimination on the basis of religion is irrelevant to Oregon. In fact, there have been a few recent cases where discrimination was alleged. For example, in May 2023, state Sen. Cedric Hayden, R-Fall Creek, complained to state and legislative employment offices that the Senate president had violated his right to an excused absence when he wanted to attend a Saturday church service during a stretch when Senate Republicans had departed the Legislature to bring it to a halt. That case appears to be still pending.

And another instance has been cited by the Portland firm Meyer Employment Law, which  posted a list of top discrimination cases in the state in recent years. The top three involved age, race and gender discrimination but the fourth involved religion. A Portland city employee was awarded $14,080 in that latter case. The city was found to have allowed a hostile work environment, with her lawsuit against the city quoting a fellow employee as saying: “I am tired of your Christian attitude … I’m going to file a complaint against you the next time I sneeze and you say ‘bless you.’”

There was also a religious discrimination case in Brookings involving zoning law and St. Timothy’s Episcopal Church. It routinely provided meals for homeless people in the area as part of its religious mission, leaders said. But in 2022, the city passed an ordinance requiring a permit for meal services. The  church fought back in court, claiming religious discrimination, and won.

So does that mean that Oregon has among the highest instances of religious discrimination in the country?

Hardly. The data doesn’t stack up. But this case does show that it’s good to be skeptical of comparisons during high-stakes election campaigns.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

The morality war

Idaho has an interesting history of occasionally using the power of government for or against religion. Fortunately, when all is said and done, we usually come back to the concept that the power of government should not be used to advance or target particular religions or religious dogma. And so it will eventually be with legislation like House Bill 710, which seeks to use religious beliefs to purge certain books from the shelves of Idaho’s school and other public libraries.

The Constitution that Idahoans adopted upon statehood in 1890 was replete with shameful discriminatory provisions targeted at the Mormon Church. Under Article VI, section 3, its members could not “vote, serve as a juror, or hold any civil office.” Over time, Idahoans came to their senses and removed these ugly constitutional provisions. We returned to the concept that the government should stay neutral in the religious realm–allowing religious freedom but not forcing religious beliefs upon the population.

The great majority of Idahoans trust Gem State librarians with book selection. Despite any evidence that they have violated that trust, religious zealots in the Legislature were finally successful this year in getting legislation passed to second-guess them. So much for keeping government decision-making closest to the people. Why trust locally-elected school and library boards to reflect community values when we can turn to the morality champions, Representatives Mike Moyle and Jaron Crane, to make those decisions?

Those exalted legislators had the guiding hand of Christian nationalist Blaine Conzatti and his morality police at the Idaho Family Policy Center to lay the groundwork. Based on his mistaken belief that public libraries were dishing out smut to kids, Conzatti launched his crusade against books with any sexual content that ran afoul of his religious views. He as much as admitted that HB 710 was primarily intended to intimidate librarians into self-censoring books that he deemed impure. He crowed that the $250 bounty, plus attorney fees and costs, for refusing to move targeted books would drive up liability insurance costs for libraries. Librarians have been fretting over the cost of trying to fend off the frivolous purge demands that we all know are coming.

There is one important lesson I’ve learned from over five decades of legal and political experience–there is usually a way to overcome adversity. There is a path to righting the damage that will result from HB 710. We just need to buckle down and make it happen.

Everyone who can should vote for reasonable, civil and pragmatic Republicans in the GOP primary election on May 21 and replace the culture warriors who have made our libraries dangerous conflict zones. Unaffiliated voters may register to vote in the Republican primary on election day. Additional culture war extremists can be voted out in the November general election.

The Open Primaries Initiative will be on the November ballot and it is essential that it be approved in order to break the stranglehold that extremists currently have over the electoral process in Idaho. That will eliminate a number of the book-banning, gay-bashing culture warriors from public office for the long term, while facilitating eventual repeal of the book removal law.

In the meantime, librarians must be on the lookout for a good test case to bring before the courts to test the application of HB 710. I’m confident that pro bono attorneys and expert witnesses will be found to defend a library’s refusal to take a worthy book off of the shelves. The party demanding the removal of the book will have the burden of proving the book is harmful to minors, whatever that means. Expert witness testimony will be important and costly for both sides. If the complaining party fails to prove the case for removal, it could face having to pay the library's costs and fees, in addition to its own. A hefty cost and fee award for a frivolous case could eliminate a vast number of the removal demands that HB 710 can be expected to produce.

So, despite the fact that Mr. Conzatti’s forces have won this chapter of the battle, the final chapter can have a happy ending where Idaho returns to the traditional concept that our government must remain neutral in the religious realm.

 

Who decides what’s harmful

In opting not to veto a bill whose rough predecessor he did kill a year earlier, Governor Brad Little has handed to each of the couple million people in Idaho an unusual piece of authority:

To decide what is harmful to children, and thereby possibly deny it to everyone.

This emerges in enactment of House Bill 710, the latest legislation targeting libraries and which was signed on April 10 into law, effective July 1.

The bill is most specific in trying to target anything which seems to relate in any way to sex, or gender or sexual orientation, not just explicitly but also making any kind of reference to “sexual excitement” (try coming up with specific limitations about what’s okay or not there) - but not only that either. It also takes aim at “any other material harmful to minors.”

In principle, an overwhelming majority of people would not want in libraries, or other places where children may go, anything harmful to children.

But here’s where it gets tricky.

What exactly is “harmful” to children?

The bill - the law - doesn't really specify what “harmful” means. In fact, not many people would necessarily agree on what that is. You and I might not. A room full of people in any given Idaho community probably would come up with a wide range of answers.

If any such (indeterminate) materials are given to a child, a large list of people have a legal “cause of action,” meaning they can sue the library; that’s in addition to elected prosecutors and the state attorney general. “Damages” can be awarded to the plaintiffs. If the materials aren’t removed within a specific period, consequences can ensue.

While the “damages” that can be recovered is not massive - $250, far smaller than a year ago - that relates to each challenge. A single book could be challenged any number of times by any number of people, and there’s no particular limit to how many individual books (or other materials) could be challenged by a single person. Sky’s the limit - or, maybe, the limit of the library’s budget.

The uncertainty in all this is reminiscent of some of the recent abortion law exemptions: A physician who guesses wrong about what someone else (a lay juror, for example) may think about what was medically necessary, could mean the difference between keeping or losing one’s medical license or freedom from prison. In the case of the library, every librarian will be put in the position of having to figure out what may be “harmful” and what isn’t.

Consider, for example, Idaho Falls, not a community on the cultural cutting edge but with some variety of people, as its librarian, Robert Wright, told the Idaho Ed News: “We have same-gender families, so we have books that talk about same-gender families. The picture book that shows little Timmy going to school with two dads or two moms, what are the community standards? … Until it’s litigated — and it’ll probably be litigated at some point — we don’t really know where we’re at.”

Where we are at may be a race among some people to find the objectionable in wherever they look, depriving everyone else of the ability to access what they’ve been accustomed to having available to them.

And don’t imagine this affects only children. While many libraries have spaces dedicated to children, few if any in Idaho are “adults only,” meaning that if you want to ensure children won't see, that means no one - whatever their age - will.

This is good legislation for people who hate reading and libraries. People who don’t will have a chance to weigh in come the May primary elections.

 

Pit toilet

My wife and I just finished a 5000-mile trip across this country in our 1985 Volkswagen Adventurewagen. We saw a lot of farm country and small towns, since we avoided most interstates. We camped in a lot of nice little parks that most people fly over.

We always commented about the toilets.

It was a bit early for most parks to turn the water on. We had 2” of snow in Mobridge, South Dakota. It was freezing in Rosebud, Montana.

But the pit toilets were open for use. We had a shovel but didn’t have to resort to that.

The pit toilet at Far West, where Custer left the steamboat for the Little Big Horn was inspirational. It was very clean and had a poster on the wall. “Let gratitude wash over your experience.”

In Ohio, a sign above the toilet forbade trash disposal, as many do. “It is extremely difficult to remove.” The half dozen plastic bottles below told me something.

Pit toilet ethics are worth consideration.

Pit toilets have a specific construction that is best enabled when the door is closed and the seat on the throne is closed. Most toilets have such a sign inside. It seems only respectful to follow such advice. Most people do.

Pit toilets are the alternative to flush when water or septic doesn’t suit.

I remember when my favorite road stop on the Salmon River switched out their flush toilets for pit ones a few years back.

Flushing is what we are used to. We all love it. But this site was just above a treasured river. Septic drains downhill. Pit toilets get pumped. I came to appreciate this choice.

How we treat each other is reflected in these ethics.

I remember reading about the Mormon Trail. These westward travelers left firewood for the next party and had their latrines downstream from their camp. It was in their ethics, their values. They got less typhoid. I appreciate such values.

It might seem a frivolous writer’s obscure segue to come around to the Idaho legislature about now, discussing pit toilets and septic systems. But permit me.

We elect these folks to do the duty of taking care of issues for all of us.

I am here arguing that the Idaho Legislature has left the seat up on a mess they have made. The smell is evident.

Idaho Republican legislators have acknowledged that their abortion statutes are a mess. Idaho House Health and Welfare Committee Chairman Vander Woude said, “OK, now we have to take a really close look at the definitions.”

But they didn’t.

Vander Woude cancelled the public hearing of the joint Senate and House Health and Welfare committees to hear from medical providers about how their mess was affecting health care for Idaho citizens.

The Idaho legislature left the seat up as they walked out of our pit toilet. What does that say to you? I find myself disgusted by such behavior.

When you walk into the pit toilet and the lid is left up, you might find yourself muttering curses against the last guy before you.

But in this case, the last guy has an excuse. He was told to leave the lid up.

It turns out our Idaho State Attorney General directed his fellow Idaho Republican colleagues to walk away from solving this stinky problem. He wants to make a name for himself as he argues his case before the US Supreme Court.

This has indeed become very stinky.

It should not be so.

If folks, our Idaho Attorney General and our elected legislators would have just lowered the lid on their mess, this pit toilet we share might be less unpleasant.

But they chose not to. They left the lid up.

Think about the pit toilet of Idaho politics. And let gratitude help you vote.

 

Self-preservation

When asked "What's the biggest problem with politics today," most of us will answer "Money." "Too damned much of it!"

There's a lot of truth to that.  Money, much of it from unidentifiable sources, has become the "mother's milk" of politics.  Money in politics has befouled important decisions and created bad - and too often - self-serving policies.  And bad laws.

But, given the seeming ineffectiveness of our current Congress - and in some cases state legislatures - there's an even greater issue than filthy lucre.  And that's self-preservation.  Or, if you prefer, continued employment.

Once elected and surrounded with the perks of any given office, there seems to be an immediate "infection" of a bad case of "How do I stay here?"  "How do I keep this going?"

That's not what the founders of this country envisioned.  Their assumption was elected officials - Congress/legislatures - would do whatever job was to be done, then go home.  The idea of any office lesser than the presidency - and a few cabinet members - being full-time wasn't desired.  They saw legislating as a part-time situation.  A "citizen" government.

Well, we don't have that "citizen government."  Haven't had for a long, long time.  While it's arguable conditions now warrant the position of "professional" politicians because of the complex world we live in, the other side of that same coin has become one of our most intractable political problems.  Self-service.

One of my heroes in public life is Professor-Emeritus Laurence Tribe of Harvard.  A master of constitutional law.  He's forgotten more about the subject than most members of Congress ever learn.  He's a national legal treasure.

Tribe believes Donald J. Trump has committed more than a dozen provable criminal offenses.  And, that was before the issue of Trump asking a foreign government to involve itself in our national politics regarding Joe and Hunter Biden.  Tribe has counseled Congress many times on issues defining the direct constitutional and legal violations of Trump's activities.  His reading of evidence is legally convincing.

But, one Party's concern about keeping the House majority - political party self-service if you will - has been a roadblock to justice far too long.

Thanks to many in Congress - both Parties - refusing to uphold the oaths of office each took, self-service is overriding what our Constitution requires.

The late Idaho Republican Senator, Jim McClure, opened my eyes to the "self-importance" of elective office.  We first met while I was a local reporter in Boise and he was a state senator.  Over the years, as he moved higher in office, we maintained a good, open relationship.  Always reachable; always quotable.

But, after he was named Chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, it was harder to get in touch for our local news.  Many unanswered calls.  During a rare visit to Idaho, McClure tried to explain why - in his mind - the previous access couldn't be continued.

"You must remember," he said, "I'm now dealing with kings and foreign ministers and other heads-of-state. So staying in touch with local news media just isn't always possible"

Perks of higher elective office.  And we wonder why, once there, they deem it so necessary to perpetuate themselves.  McClure was a good man and a good politician.  But, well, you know.

Yes, money has deeply contaminated our politics.  It's turned many a politician to the "dark side."  But, self-service, job preservation, staying at the public trough, an overwhelming desire for continued public employment - those and similar issues have created a class of folks that don't always operate in our interests.

And, we're paying for it.  Really paying!

 

Defying the constitution

Before commencing work, every Idaho legislator must solemnly swear to support the Idaho Constitution. That is pretty much a no-brainer. Sad to say that in the recent legislative session we witnessed any number of violations of that oath. Instead of abiding by the requirements of Idaho’s Constitution, legislators often ignored or defied that foundational document.

The Idaho Supreme Court ruled in 2021 that voter initiatives and referendums stand on equal ground with the right to vote as fundamental rights of Idaho citizens. Any restriction on those rights will be subjected to “strict scrutiny” by the courts. That is, there must be compelling justification for imposing the restrictions. Many legislators simply don’t want voters to have the right to make their own laws with the initiative, or to veto laws they don’t like with the referendum. Idaho voters last used the referendum to veto the unpopular Luna education laws in 2012.

In keeping with its hostility to voter rights, the House passed House Bill 652, a clearly unconstitutional bill allowing signatures to be removed from initiative and referendum petitions after it is too late to get additional signers. The removal process was not secure, opening the door to fraudulent removals. Luckily, the bill died in the Senate.

Legislators were successful in requiring those who gather signatures for ballot measures to provide written and oral disclosures if they are being paid. Senate Bill 1377, which the Governor signed into law, requires the written disclosure on every page of the petition, plus certification under oath that oral disclosure was made. It also requires paid gatherers to wear a badge proclaiming his or her paid status. Gatherers who are not being paid must swear under oath that they are volunteering their work.

These restrictions are unconstitutional burdens on the ballot measure process. Dorothy Moon, the head of the extremist branch of the Republican Party, has falsely claimed that Reclaim Idaho pays its signature gatherers. Quite to the contrary, its Open Primaries Initiative is fueled by non-paid volunteers who believe that all Idahoans, regardless of party affiliation, have the right to choose their leaders. The last ballot measure where paid signature gatherers were used was the horse-racing initiative, which failed in 2018. Senate Bill 1377 is merely a flawed solution to a non-existent problem. It will not stand up in court when and if it is challenged for violating the Constitution.

Just as the legislative session was coming to a close, Representative Brent Crane threw a clearly unconstitutional bill into the legislative hopper. House Bill 753 was such a mishmash that it could not possibly have been enforced, but it caused severe heartburn for the agricultural and construction industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor. The bill would have made it a criminal offense “to enter this state directly from a foreign nation at any location other than a lawful port of entry.” That would only apply to someone who stumbled across the Canadian border outside of the Porthill border crossing. It may be that Crane was targeting those mythical Canadians that Dorothy Moon falsely claimed were crossing the border in 2022 to vote in Idaho. Although the bill would have been stricken down in federal court, it passed the House with a 53-15 vote. The Senate failed to act on the bill, saving the state a bundle trying to defend it in court.

There are too many unconstitutional bills to list here but we could add House Bill 521, a bill that violates Idaho’s constitutional prohibition against legislation that contains more than one subject. That conglomeration has been signed into law. House Bill 713 and Senate Bill 1347 were ditched when it was made clear to sponsors that both bills violated the Governor’s constitutional power to fill vacancies on the state’s district and appellate courts. And, of course, House Bill 710, which targeted libraries and librarians, is replete with constitutional concerns.

The question is, why can’t legislators restrain themselves from promoting and passing legislation that violates the Idaho Constitution? Some legislators claim the Attorney General will not answer their questions on constitutionality. The AG takes the preposterous position that he won’t give guidance where the constitutionality of a bill is in question. Constitutionality is often raised in debate but routinely ignored. The only people who will come out ahead are lawyers who can win big attorney fee awards against the state for successfully challenging unconstitutional laws.

 

Careers of ridicule and dread

One of the truly astounding features of the last half-dozen years of American politics is how willingly so many Republican politicians have debased themselves in service to the man who now owns the GOP lock, stock and criminal liability.

The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg wrote a fascinating — and ultimately deeply disturbing — piece this week about this phenomenon by focusing on Sen. Rob Portman, a generally well respected, often serious and very conservative politician from Ohio who retired at the close of 2022.

Goldberg interviewed Portman in front of a live audience not quite two years ago on the same day a Trump White House aide, Cassidy Hutchinson, testified before the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. You may recall — or, if you’re inclined, you may have dismissed — Hutchison’s chilling testimony.

As a young aide to then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Hutchinson, displaying remarkable courage and calm, told the House committee of former President Donald Trump watching impassively as the mob, attacking the Capitol, chanted “Hang Mike Pence.” She testified that Trump thought his vice president deserved that fate because Pence refused to violate the Constitution in order to keep Trump in office even though he had lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

Did Portman, hearing such first-hand testimony, regret that he had voted to acquit Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, Goldberg wanted to know? That trial was, of course, a turning point in American history where the Republican Party might have, with impeccable and urgent reason, banned an insurrectionist from ever holding office again.

Portman never really answered Goldberg’s question but instead became indignant that a journalist had the audacity to ask such a question.

“It would be unfair to blame Portman disproportionately for the devastating reality that Donald Trump, who is currently free on bail but could be a convicted felon by November, is once again a candidate for president,” Goldberg wrote. “The Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, denounced Trump for his actions on January 6, and yet still voted to acquit him. Trump’s continued political viability is as much McConnell’s fault as anyone’s.”

But here’s the thing: Portman knew he was debasing himself in front of the reality of Trump’s lies and incitement of violence, yet he debased himself willingly. Portman, who worked in the George H.W. Bush White House, knows about the value of character in politics, but he chose to ignore Trump’s lack of character.

At one level, this degree to suspension of belief is a great case study in human psychology. How does a person, experienced and smart, capable of critical thinking and understanding basic right and wrong, decide to ignore what looms right in front of him?

Portman, like Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo and several others, withdrew his endorsement of Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public in 2016 — Trump boasted of grabbing women by the genitals, a certain “high” point in American political history — but Portman (and Crapo) eventually came back around and willingly supported a sexual abuser for president.

Nothing, it seems, absolutely nothing is beyond the pale when it comes to Republican officeholders debasing themselves in order to stay, even temporarily, on the right side of Trump.

Nothing. Not the praise of dictators like Russia’s Vladimir Putin or Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, not the unprecedented indictments, not the former president’s outrageous attacks on judges, prosecutors and their families, not the increasingly blatant incitement of violence against his opponents, not the promise to pardon those convicted for assaulting police officers on January 6, not the civil conviction for sexual assault, not the family takeover of the Republican National Committee in order to pay his legal bills — nothing, absolutely nothing constitutes a red line for the Debasement Caucus.

So what is to be said about timid men like Crapo, Portman and so many others? Many, like career politician Crapo, are clinging to power so they dare not follow normal political instincts and abandon their authoritarian leader. Normal would be, of course, to distance oneself from a many-time-indicted, violence-spouting insurrectionist.

Other Republicans hide behind the fiction that somehow President Joe Biden presents a greater danger to the country than a man attacking judges and threatening to set free criminals who assault cops, a greater danger than a man who makes excuses for Putin and threatens to destroy a finally recovering U.S. economy by imposing sweeping tariffs that really will hit every American pocketbook.

The hyperpartisan nonsense that a steady, experienced political veteran is a greater danger to Americans than a twice-impeached grifter who will soon be the first former president to ever face a criminal trial is routinely spouted by Republicans like Idaho Senator James Risch and South Dakota Senator John Thune. But this line of argument is so blatantly flimsy as to further debase those who peddle it.

Republicans are obviously entitled to their policy differences with Biden. But to consider him a greater threat than Trump is to inhabit a la-la land of partisan fantasy.

Others who stand with Trump in the face of a mountain of evidence as to his venality are surely just afraid — afraid — of having the MAGA mob unleashed on them or their families. It’s a logical fear. But fear that doing the right thing will be uncomfortable or career-ending is simple cowardice. But when you have no red line, or the line continually moves, cowardice and the acquiesces that comes with it becomes a way of life.

Meanwhile, some Wall Street CEOs who thought Trump was done after January 6 and somehow found the courage then to distance themselves are back in the fold and writing big checks to pay his lawyers and fuel his campaign. There is no red line when it comes to the wealthiest among us putting their fortunes ahead of the country’s democracy.

All this is reminiscent of the death stages of Weimar Germany when, as recounted in Eric Vuillard’s brilliant book, The Order of the Day, 24 of Germany’s top corporate chieftains assembled in Berlin in February 1933 to bless and finance the election of a man they all disdained, but believed would be useful to them, their futures and fortunes.

The man who won that election was a sociopath, a virulent racist and the instigator of a failed coup. But he promised a return to order and stability and to conduct a war against democratic institutions. He would Make Germany Great Again, and then would destroy it.

“We never fall twice into the same abyss,” Vuillard wrote of these enablers of another time, “but we always fall the same way, in a mixture of ridicule and dread.”

As The Atlantic’s Goldberg notes, just 10 Republican senators could have reclaimed their party and ended their own nightmare by convicting Trump for his actions on January 6. That they did not will be their legacy — and ours. Theirs indeed are careers of ridicule and dread.

 

A 1990 redux?

The idea pops up with some regularity: In Idaho politics, could 2024 turn into another 1990 - or maybe an echo of it?

Idaho Democrats, current and former Idahoans, who recall or know of what happened in 1990, and why, are pondering if some of the conditions might be in place for something similar this year.

Cutting to the chase: Probably not. But there’s a possibility of it, depending on developments between here and November.

For those less attuned to the political history from a quarter century ago, a refresher.

The big topic in the 1990 legislature was abortion, at a time when many Idaho Republicans wanted a frontal challenge to Roe v. Wade. After considering various options, and in the glare of national attention, the legislature passed a bill crafted by the National Right to Life Committee to ban most abortions. Its terms were similar to but not quite as strict as laws now effective in many states (including Idaho). There was widespread understanding that the 1990 law ran afoul of Roe, but its backers hoped the Supreme Court would use it as a lever to reverse the earlier decision (something like what actually happened in 2022).

Governor Cecil Andrus, who often expressed personal opposition to most abortions, received many more comments in opposition to the bill than in favor, and vetoed it. He warned that the state would be on the hook for big legal costs over a bill likely to fail in the courts. And: “The bill is drawn so narrowly that it would punitively and without compassion further harm an Idaho woman who may find herself in the horrible, unthinkable position of confronting a pregnancy that resulted from rape and incest.”

No one was certain what would happen in the Idaho elections in the months ahead: Would Republicans opposed to abortion see their fortunes rise and oust Andrus? Or might it work the other way?

Um, the other way. Andrus won his fourth term in a landslide (68.2% of the vote, way up from about 50% four years earlier). In the state Senate, Republicans lost two critical seats reducing them to a tie with the Democrats. (The Republican lieutenant governor, C.L. “Butch” Otter, broke ties, ensuring continuing GOP control.) The change was bigger in the House, where Republicans went from 64 to 56 seats. Many key legislators, mostly well-established incumbents in solidly Republican districts, behind the abortion bill either were defeated or had close calls.  Republicans lost the first congressional district and the attorney general’s office. It was the best year for Idaho Democrats since 1958.

After that election, in a 1992 reference book, I pondered: “1990 would not have been so favorable for Democrats except that so many voters were talking so much about abortion so much of the year, and used it as a litmus test. Abortion may be back in 1992 if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns the landmark case of Roe v. Wade; but a chastened Idaho legislature may be able to sidestep it by simply not bringing forth abortion bills.”

Of course the Supreme Court didn’t overturn Roe until the year before last, and the Idaho Legislature mostly kept clear of abortion legislation for years to come. Starting in 1992, Idaho moved sharply Republican, where it has stayed since.

Now, Roe has been overturned, and the Idaho Legislature has become more anti-abortion than ever before. So: Might some of what happened in 1990 repeat this year?

The main and short answer is, probably not, in large part because Idaho has changed. If the state was mostly Republican back around 1990, it has become much more so, and much more partisan, since.

Still. This is the first year in many when Idaho Democrats have managed to fill more than half of the legislative ballot slots with candidates. Abortion has made a significant difference in a number of elections in states around the nation, not least in deeply red states.

Keep it in the back of your mind as the campaign season begins.

Medical school

I attended a town hall meeting with two of my elected legislative representatives a while back. Only two of the three who represent me were in attendance. The absent was my State Senator, Dan Foreman.

He beat me in 2016 (Trump-Hillary), then lost in 2018, probably because he couldn’t control his temper. But he bounced back. Maybe he’s figured out public interactions don’t suit him. That’s just Idaho Republican politics.

Instead, I want to talk about another of my representatives.

Representative Brandon Mitchell voiced an interesting idea. It’s an old, tired, worn idea that might have some credibility, given Idaho’s recent explosive growth. But I doubt he has much understanding of the history of this idea.

He suggested it might be time for Idaho to be considering establishing its own medical school. This is a guy who represents a district where there are currently 80 medical students residing. All are tax-paying voters, I presume.

Idaho shares in a consortium with the University of Washington School of Medicine. That consortium is called WWAMI, which stands for the participating states: Washington, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, and Idaho. The states shell out cash to UWSOM to make medical school seats available for their residents. Applicants must prove their Idaho residency, then get charged in state tuition for their four years of training. Idaho taxpayers shell out the difference between tuition and the full cost of the education.

This program started back in the 1970’s. Full disclosure, I am a graduate of this program, back in the stone age. We puked and bled our patients.

But Representative Mitchell’s idea might possibly serve Idaho if we had any kind of sticking power.

But it would definitely not serve his district. Maybe he’s seeing the bigger picture. I don’t really know. He doesn’t respond to my emails.

I just drove across South Dakota. It has less population than Idaho and its own very decentralized medical school. It proudly claims to produce doctors for their rural needs. I googled the heck out of their budget documents but could not find what South Dakota taxpayers fork over to fund this program.

They must be happy with it.

Wyoming wasn’t. They had a medical school for a while but dropped it to become the second “W” in the WWAMI program. It was too expensive, and they weren’t getting the product they needed. States should be critical about how they spend their money and pay attention to what they get for the dollar. Wyoming was and joined WWAMI.

Idaho should be critical too. But what do you count?

Idaho’s current yearly funding for WWAMI is about $7.5M. That supports 40 Idaho medical students a year. These students also pay their share of their tuition coming to $55K a year per.

For South Dakota medical students it’s only $32K a year.

You can see that the numbers are piling up here. And we haven’t even discussed the cost of a cadaver lab.

Facilities are the capital costs. But, if you build them, maybe they will come.

Remember, Idaho already has a private, for-profit medical school subsidized by Idaho taxpayers because of a cheap, 60-year lease agreement made by our previous governor.

Idaho College of Medicine is down in Meridian, churning out Doctors of Osteopathy. Their tuition is significantly less than UWSOM. They seem to be doing great. Why isn’t this the model we should be following? Capitalism solves all public needs through the invisible hand, right?

Only WWAMI graduates are required to come back to Idaho, under current law. Doesn’t that solve our shortage? Unless we keep driving them away, maybe.

Will Idaho doctors be from UWSOM taxpayer supported, or ICOM, the free market variety?

These are twisted concepts that require vision.

Representative Mitchell’s idea to build an Idaho medical school will send 80 of his voters to Boise. And all the funding that goes along with them.

Who is he working for? Not his district.