I was debating whether to write this or not, just because the timing is warranted, but the situation for all is really sh*tty and I didn't wanna be misunderstood as patronizing. But I think we're at an inflection point with our community and I wanted to provide some context for all of this from my own perspective. This is meant to put things into perspective and give some of us a moment to take a deep breath. This won't be a rah-rah feel good hopeful post because at this point most of you have lost huge amounts in your ASA portfolio and unlike ALGO, most of these sh*t coin ASAs are going to have a hard time coming back from this.
If you don't know me, hi, I'm old. I'm in my mid-forties moving towards fifties. I've had a long solid career in online gaming, live casinos, esports, fintech and got into crypto in May 2017. Our microfinance project decided to build on Algorand back in Mayish 2019 and we run a recently launched mainnet dex and gamefi player platform on Algorand...and we launched the first verified ASA on Algorand to boot. So, I'm just saying, for Algorand specifically, I'm old as F' I've been around and I've been with Algorand from pretty much the start. But before I write a wall of text, genX style, let me just get straight to some points and you can sort it out from there.
THE CURRENT CONTEXT
The entirety of crypto is in a massive bear market and we're coming out of a pandemic (kinda), with a massive amount of fiat supply and a war that from some estimates has a 10% chance of escalating into a WW3 with nukes.
Meme coins and non Doxxed teams were always going to be speculative. Rugs always happen in Crypto and are worse on other chains - not a justification -again context.
DeFi still hasn't figured out how to make things work past 12-18 months.
Product needs time to build, an ASA is not a product, a community is not a product, NFT series are not product, a smart contract is not a product.
We have lost our way from focusing on decentralization and what that means and seems to be split in everything from DOAs, DeFi, NFT, gamefi
We are early to Web3, and maybe the crypto moment is finally passing on -
Short term finance never has any crossover to with long term productivity - if you're gonna degen, degen, if you're gonna hold, hodl
Most investments are based on narratives that seem to work for them - in that, fundamentally everything is an idea until its is something or agreed upon (gross generalization), but at this point ~ what is Algorand's narrative moving forward? As infrastructure, partners, ASA and community?
Founders matter because until it all works, someone's force of will and wanting to see something built is the only thing left when there is no reason to keep going and when you can just rug away into the sunset.
Investing is a risk because it needs capital to happen and that can fail. The act of the market is for the efficient allocation of capital to grow something - but if its unlimited, then the lack of constraints to capital just make it a sh*t show of non accountability and misallocation to little punk kids who understand the language of degens and fomo, but little else.
So: I'll address these one-by-one. It will get long. Even though I have 8 urgent tasks I need to get sorted before I get some rest. (A). I will be up all night anyway and I think this is worth me doing it. (B) I haven't posted in a while, so this is overdue anyway - as my community matters and that includes Algorand as whole.
ELABORATIONS:
1. The entirety of crypto is in a massive bear market and we're coming out of a pandemic (kinda), with a massive amount of fiat supply and a war that from some estimates has a 10% chance of escalating into a WW3 with nukes.
Why has our entire crypto space gone bad?
Bears happens, happened in 2017-2019, happened before then from 2013-2016. This too will pass.
Why isn't it continuing to go up?
Markets correct and when there is a lot of growth, we expect there to be revenues and products that increase consumption to reflect that. Once products that are funded now come to market and have a visible impact, things will reprice at that time.
But if you want to understand a market, you look at the main indexes. Your stock went down, but how far in relation to the S&P500. Your ASA sh*t the bed, compare that to how $ALGO is doing. It could be worse, it could relatively ok. Context matters, having single outliers are great, but that is why they are outliers.
What makes this even more difficult is war and how the pandemic continues to play out. This is on top of regulation and the massive amount of new money supply. Instability usually plays well for the crypto narrative. But who knows? no one. But there is no 'buying the dip' right now. If you have cash, you buy what you think is the bottom and just hold. If you have no cash, you either cut your losses, or hold until the market changes.
2. Meme coins and non Doxxed teams were always going to be speculative. Rugs always happen in Crypto and are worse on other chains - not a justification -again context.
First crypto I ever had was DOGE for free from a faucet back in 2014. It was relatively accessible and I have good memories of the 0.12 DOGE I got. But other than visibility and accessibility, you are not investing, you're gambling and its all about musical chairs. You get in and out and in and out before the music stops. This is not investing.
I love being a founder. It is the hardest thing I have ever done. I wanna shout it from the rooftops, I wear it with pride. I am taking that shot and I wanna have that buzzer beater. Why the F' would you be an anonymous founder? Other than Satoshi who had a real possibility of going to prison forever (if you know the context at the time with gov'ts being very anti-independent monetary systems) this anonymous founder sh*t is bullsh*t . Even Do Kwon of Terra Labs, who is now the 2nd largest TVL in crypto is doxxed and has already been served by the SEC. Cause he believes in what he is doing.
At the end of the day, investing in a start-up is 90% gonna fail in what it sets out to do, but a strong team, dedicated founder is gonna pivot and make it work. https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/marketing/famous-and-successful-business-pivots/ Is not going to just piss off or rug, because that would follow them the rest of their lives as well. If every major VC on the planet looks at teams as the #1 metric for due diligence, then call it what it is - it's always a degen play with a meme coin and a non-doxxed team. You wanna be degen, be degen, but don't think that these meme coins or non-doxxed teams can be anything but a speculative swing trade.
3. DeFi still hasn't figured out how to make things work past 12-18 months.
This is a hard truth. Maybe Andre Cronje of FTM figured it out and just had to cut loose. You could say, https://twitter.com/DeFimagick/status/1500635767202275331 They just rugged the entire Eth and EVM portable DeFi space, but I wouldn't. I'd say, they are regrouping mentally because they came up again a hard place in hell and a hard f'ing meteorite.
Whether it is 3,3,3 or rebase or whatever, the fact is, you can't keep short term incentivizing holders without having real revenue coming in from something other than new buyers. And you can't keep giving out rebasing and staking rewards until the supply can't be managed without a massive crash in value - leading to a massive crash in confidence, leading to run on the reserves, which leaves the project with zero and 10% of the investor's expectations met, or 90% of the investors feeling pisses as F'.
When I got into crypto, I did the first thing any genx old guy would do, I read up on monetary theory, enrolled myself back into school for monetary policy and spent 2 years researching and writing. Now all of that has nothing to do with making money or creating a massive DeFi project with 1B in TVL, but it makes it clear to me that its not completely solved yet. We as an industry are still are working it out and maybe the guys who started it are not the best guys to finish it - just because the short and long term incentives, they don't just bridge over nicely.
Straight up, my team, invested in yieldly. They started and now are getting hammered, and some of their team moved on to other projects, and one of the founder (who left the main team) still advises. But they have done a lot of good in the the ALGO space with real dev. But for long term hodlers - it sucks balls now. Us too, we never sold even 1 YLDY with over 76M in hand. Why? Because we use them for the liquidity pools, because we are looking towards the end game of it all - even if that hasn't been figured out yet. But no one has. Think I'm full of sh*t , all the defi darlings you look at now, revisit it again in 12-18 months. Not cause it's a bad platform, it's just not solved.
Not to put down any defi project, but its in progress. Recognize that, you don't need to like it, you don't need to hold it or support it. but stop with this headless chicken sh*t . And just remember, at least you're not a FTM/ Yearn holder.
4. Products need time to build, an ASA is not a product, a community is not a product, NFT series are not product, a smart contract is not a product.
If you're on Ethereum, just youtube whatever, how build a Dex, collateralized lending, NFT randomizer, find and revised those contracts, deploy, get a sh*t 10k audit and vola, add in a telegram channel, good memes, twitter and discord and you're a product. Oh piss off, you're not product, you're a project ok - and you may have a community, but a product isn't just a front end with a smart contract or a gallery- as a start-up you're doing something new - innovative, or creating access.
Now I love the Algo NFT community. But these are NFT projects ok? I just want to make a clear distinction that yes you invest in them, but you're investing and buying art, not a product that is pushing technological innovation - art innovation - ok I'm not trying to pick a fight here as I am a supporter of ALGO NFTs - but just get my point.
You can't just put up a product over night, we have 5 senior fullstack teal developers and 15 junior ones, and every time Algorand comes out with new functionality and capabilities, we integrate and upgrade our product. You're not going to innovate with 3 months of HTML coding. It isn't going to happen. But are we slower than nearly every other project in coming out to mainnet or new revisions - yes - but is there actually product pushing some type of innovation, yes. So from the time we announce we usually get the deadline wrong 2 or 3 times, and our dev team spends weeks working 18 hour days to get to our deadlines and it takes at least 2-3 weeks for a major functionality to be finished and an alpha platform of at least 8 months.
So if nf.domains takes longer to do it right and another firm just is going in there with the bare minimum - ok competition is competition, but who do you think is really going to end up on top, the guys who innovated and thought in depth the new value they are bringing in, or the bare minimum? Well, when it comes to a domain you will own forever, i'll give you the answer, it's the guys who coming in with full product depth.
Crypto is backwards, you fomo and shill first, but you can't echo chamber forever, at a certain point, you need to expect that these companies will have to build something in that lull is where the bear market is, and its product which will get us out of it. So again - degen away- but its not a product, its a speculative project.
5. We have lost our way from focusing on decentralization and what that means and seems to be split in everything from DOAs, DeFi, NFT, gamefi
Getting bigger in scope is great, but why are we in this space. I'm here because I believe that the ability to have decentralized structures can act as a way to network those marginalized by centralized structures in an equally powerful way. I believe that Algorand is at the forefront providing a decentralized solution that makes that happen in secure, fast and scalable way - more so that other solutions out there.
But commericaly, the ETH market is 10x bigger that Algorand. But even if we may do multichain or whatever, the commercial side of value is clear, but my focus on why I am in this space is not changing. If you're only in this because of the commercial side, that is fair, but is also fair to say that for you Algorand and crypto is a sh*tty place to be in.
If we are in this for also the reason that we think this is the next great innovation for humanity, then it is something we can still align and support during this bear market and the multitude of failed ASAs and reflect, and do better as a community. Or we can all just wait this through until a 6 months pass and the bull comes back and we learned nothing except that we have newer community of degens while the old ones have moved on.
Come on Algo Fam, remember we are #algofam.
6. We are early to Web3, and maybe the crypto moment is finally passing on -
tokenizing everything, and blockchain supply chain never happened (see IBM blockchain if you can find it lol); DeFi, Play2Earn, Frog nation 3,3,3 - its a hard fall down - but put that with NFT, DAOs and real revenue products - maybe Web3 - the structure of governance and usage through NFTs and DAOs - it is something - I think so, I pivoted 4 years of planning and dev to it, not because I failed, its because I think this is the next step. In this, I'm hopeful. In crypto as just tokens, maybe that age is now just passing into this one.
7. Short term finance never has any crossover to with long term productivity - if you're gonna degen, degen, if you're gonna hold, hodl
No one does their f'ing research, because if you're a degen, you just wanna make a trade and get paid for it and if you're not degen, then you feel like sh*t because you didn't degen and you keep thinking about the gains you're not making, cause in the short term, everyone is a greedy self entitled serving F', it's always the right move in game theory - but its never the right move in building something. But chose either way and own it. Stop whining on twitter about it. Do you really think you did research and that is why you got f'ed on speculative coin or rug pull, no, its cause you degened in or rationalized it and degened in later - just own it and then you can learn from it.
And if you're a long term hodler, then you have my full sympathies, I know it would have been better to sell with the other degens and now you are forced to hodl. But again, just check in once a week, look at some nice Algo NFTs, and if you have done your research on a doxxed team with actual development on a product - then its up to the crypto fates at this point - this is not financial advice as you should do whatever you need to do, DYOR - but be real and own your actions at this point.
8. Most investments are based on narratives that seem to work for them - in that, fundamentally everything is an idea until its is something or agreed upon (gross generalization), but at this point ~ what is Algorand's narrative moving forward? As infrastructure, partners, ASA and community?
I'm sure Sean Lee's departure from the foundation was a bit of a shock for most everyone, but Staci the new Chief officer, seems to have come in like a welcome hammer. But most people have wanted more from Algorand in terms of marketing and announcements. I'd say, marketing and announcements have been plenty, but partnerships aren't big innovative strides. And you won't get big innovative strides without a lot of developers and developer support.
The reality is, our community is still small. The ASA market was still tiny compared to the Eth market that if there is a hack or exploit or rug pull, it still will barely make the mainstream crypto news as it's peanuts in both gains and losses compared to what is out there. Not to belittle the situation, but personally, for losses, they suck - for our community and where Algorand is headed, we still haven't hit the nail on the head yet. BUT, with C3, https://c3.io/ that may happen with the adoption of 'state proofs' possible on Algorand- and if we get stable cross chain bridges and see massive amount of locked capital move to Algorand - this could be what we really stand for. Things are still happening - lets focus on this technology and make it the narrative, not hyped ASA projects that are rehashing old business models that never worked in web2 let alone web3. I mean we have Silvio Micali, the co-inventor of probabilistic encryption, Zero-Knowledge Proofs, Verifiable Random Functions and many of the protocols that are the foundations of modern cryptography Do you think these sh*t ASA projects are worthy to mentioned in the same breath as him? No. So lets get some perspective, it was never an ASA that was going to rocket Algorand and our community, it was always going to be an equally fantastic innovation to that of the birth of Ethereum or solving the multichain cross chain.
9. Founders matter because until it all works, someone's force of will and wanting to see something built is the only thing left when there is no reason to keep going and when you can just rug away into the sunset.
For a product, you need a product lead. If you do house renovations, you need someone to make the decisions. Cause if it is something easy, ok, we can all just pick and choose similar options that are really just about preference, but when you make a new innovative product that is a new generation or creating a new market or a new solution that solves something web2 unsolvable, it is not easy. Its motherfking hard as hard can be. If you don't have the mental and physical fortitude, the will to encourage your team and keep them on the big picture and get your hands dirty with whatever needs to be done, motherfking hard always wins. And sometimes pride is the only thing pushing founders not to fail.
If I'm gonna be a founder, and call myself one, I also am accepting all the sh*t that is going to be thrown at me as well as the accolades and support that I'll get as well. And I'm also putting myself out there and saying - ok, I got this - and if I don't well I know I'm gonna get smashed here with bird, dog and panda sh*t all over reddit and my twitter feed. But if founders folded so quickly from reddit and twitter and got to run away under a mask, well they were never founder material to begin with - mental and physical health is important - and if you couldn't handle the pressure then you should get out. The issue is putting yourself out there like you were actually gonna see the project through and raised cash - and made a community and then FK'ed off ~ You were never a founder - cause a founder owns their failures too and continues to make it right and bows out after everything that could be done was done. Whenever I get called out - and if it is legit and not a troll, I welcome that someone cared enough to write something out that called me out and it is a chance to address it. And if its a troll - well that is part of the job description that comes as being a founder - cause it is a motherfking hard f'ing thing to do and be. But founders need to be kept honest and accountable too so that it is clear that they did put their all in - and after that, what more can we ask of anyone?
10. Investing is a risk because it needs capital to happen and that can fail. The act of the market is for the efficient allocation of capital to grow something - but if its unlimited, then the lack of constraints to capital just make it a sh*t show of non accountability and misallocation to little punk kids who understand the language of degens and fomo, but little else.
Crypto is 99% optics, 1% product. But when the product comes, it comes with the thunder and the seas parting. We are looking at the cutting edge of our modern society here - alongside AI, genetics, semiconductors, sensors and telecommunication - web3/crypto is at the edge of reshaping our world in the areas of finance, accessibility and ownership.
With all innovation, it isn't the mid-forty's founder leading the charge - it's the 20's something who are native to the existing innovation and can see the next steps. All I can see are the steps, but I'm not native to the world we live in - I was raised in world of rotary phones, half the world excluded to international travel and yearly sets of encyclopedias for knowledge. I used a keyboard to play doom, and used a mouse to play Quake 2, had a Nokia cellphone that would get as hot as the sun after talking 20 mins on it and learned to text by pressing 1-9 multiple times to make a word. I tweet, but it takes me 20 mins to do one tweet etc. I'm barely hanging on here - but that's ok, because the world is in the right hands with every generation that is native to push for something more.
Problem is, that faking it is easier than ever and optic is reality for 99.99% of everyone raised natively in this era. It is why snapchat works, or instagram is huge or tiktok is wreaking it. It's also why it is easy - if you don't give a sh*t about the product- to make optics the product. And while I b*tch about competing with the same empty optics, it is the name of the game. And some projects may have just faked it until they made it ~ but I'm ending with - you as a trader may be screwed right now, but now it's gonna be hard for those projects with just optics to make it, you will expect more, the market is expecting more and out of that, the real projects for products born in this downturn and bear market aren't going to be opportunists but some real founders.
So perspective. You got screwed, and yes there are people to blame, but we are all at some level opportunists and were willing participants in this fall from grace as we stuff ourselves full ~when we thought the APY couldn't ever go down. Sucks bad, but know that the market is moving regardless and whatever time it takes ~ we'll get to a better place because Algorand is all substance and innovation, and we will still need this community to continue to rally behind that.
#AlgoFam the fire is burning away the chaff. See you on the other side.
Sinjin - a Founder who builds on Algorand.