Major differences between Pelton's model and consensus:

1. Views Sheppard, Edey, Clingan, and Sarr as elite prospects worthy of a #1 pick many years.

2. Views Knecht as nearly undraftable and is extremely low on Matas, Cody Williams, and Risacher (rating them as sub second round picks as well. Cody Williams doesn't even rank as a third round pick due to his horrible defensive stats).

3. Much lower on Holland, Dillingham, Topic, Castle, Missi, Salaun, Collier, and Devin Carter than consensus

4. Much higher on Kyshawn George, Johnny Furphy, Ivisic, Kobe Johnson, Kam Jones, and Payton Sandfort than consensus.

Nothing very surprising for stat based models.

With 400 career games played as of Wed., Luka Dončić qualifies for career NBA leaders in all per game stat categories. Top career combined ppg, rpg & apg in NBA history are now:

• Wilt Chamberlain- 57.4

• Luka Dončić- 45.6

• Bob Pettit- 45.6

• Elgin Baylor- 45.2

• Oscar Robertson- 42.7

Source:

MVP: Jokic, Doncic, SGA, Giannis, Brunson

DPOY: Wemby, Gobert, Bam

6MOY: Naz Reid, Monk, Norm Powell

MIP: Coby, Maxey, DiVincenzo

ROY: Wemby, Chet, Brandon Miller

All Rookie 1st team: Wemby, Chet, Miller, Jaquez, Podz

All Rookie 2nd team: Wallace, George, Bilal, Amen, Lively

COY: Mazzulla, Mosley, Daigneault

All NBA 1st team: Jokic, Doncic, SGA, Giannis, Tatum

All NBA 2nd team: KD, Kawhi, Ant, Brunson, AD

All NBA 3rd team: Jaylen Brown, LeBron, Haliburton, Steph, Sabonis

All Defensive 1st team: Wemby, Bam, Gobert, Herb, Caruso

All Defensive 2nd team: AD, Derrick White, Suggs, Kawhi, Isaac

not going to cash on main but night and show down should be amazing. was a massive edge tonight, pretty much knew zubac being available wasn't going to start or play and then once powell wasn't starting knew it would be a good chance he also did not play. and same with mann not playing much, all were owned a ton so hoping to salvage there. Hope you all had a nice night tonight. got a smaller slate for tomorrow.

If discord is something you are interested in, Will have a link below where i have in-depth content going over each slate, player pools for cash/gpps. cores and much more.

Edit: Ayo out - Really like this bulls team. coby, demar, vuc all look great. caruso is fine. green solid contrarian value

Edit: celtics in, id be cautious to play anyone here

Edit: im a tad bit worried FVV and brooks could possibly start to get shut down but give it a small chance since there ruled in. Green, Amen, Jabari my fav rockets that all look very solid. Fred is low owned so dont mind it

Edit: nance out - like joval in gpps. not a GTD he gets a bump but i would at least expect low 20s minutes

Jokic +7.5

Luka +7.5

Brunson +6.3

Haliburton +6.3

SGA +6.2

Giannis +5.7

Curry +5.4

Booker +4.9

LeBron +4.8

Kyrie +4.6

I’ll never give up on this team until it’s over. This team will win the 2023-2024 NBA championship! This is certain without a shadow of a doubt. Even if it’s from the 10th seed, this team will get it done. The GOAT is on this team and trust me, he’s ready for all of the smoke. AD wants all the smoke too.

Come back to this post when the Lakers are hoisting the Larry OB! I’ll see y’all at the parade in June! Will be tipping my velvet Jet Black Fedora to my fellow purple and gold brethren gesturing “I told you!”!

Watching him vs the Celtics and it's obvious why he was the fan favorite (non-star) player of every team he's been on

When the Pels traded for him, I remember all the Laker fans fawning over him.

When we traded him to Portland, HE SAT COURTSIDE in street clothes chearing on the Pels. All the fans loved him for how he played. His teammates all seemed to fawn over him too. Interviews. Everything. He's just such a fun guy to root for.

Blazers fans in his short time there loved him and now the Knicks fan want to elect him King.

Guy is a prince. If you haven't had him on your team, you've missed out.

Ryan Dunn is an other-wordly defender, likely the best in this class. He swallows up guards on the perimeter with his 6'8 frame and defended bigs all year for Virginia, including a monster outing against multiple future NBA players against Duke. You can see that in this clip below, taken from (great YouTube channel, yall need to subscribe!)

For the purposes of this post, I won't be diving further into Dunn's defense. It's apparent he will be able to defend at the NBA level. However, what will his offense look like? Will he be able to provide just enough value offensively to justify giving him minutes? Can he learn to shoot? If not, where can he make his impact?

Let's dive in.

Let's start by exploring Dunn's true offensive position. Dunn played 61% of his minutes at the 4 and 39% of his minutes at the 5, according to hoop-explorer. Small-ball 5 might be his best position in the NBA, but Virginia was 4 points per 100 possessions worse with him at center, even though the team’s offense was better. The defense fell off a cliff with him anchoring the paint, surrendering 9 extra points per 100. Rebounding was the main culprit - the opposite team’s OReb% rose 6%.

If Dunn isn’t best suited at the 5, then he NEEDS to either:

1. Fall into a team context with a stretch 5 and other + shooters, or

2. Learn to shoot.

Because we can’t project the first from a draft context, let’s investigate how likely it is Dunn learns to shoot.

Dunn shot 20% from 3 on just about 2.5 3s per 100 possessions, along with 53% from the FT line. These are simply BAD numbers, and according to my draft database going back to 2009, they compare to Josh Minott, Miles Plumlee, and Ray Spalding. These are true, ground-bound centers. His best hope at the NBA level might be Andre Roberson’s 25.3% from 3 for his career, on 1.4 attempts per game.

Maybe Dunn finds himself in OKC with a great shooting coach like Chip Engelland, and they get the most out of him as a shooter. What would that look like? Here is an incredibly simplified exercise: take some young wings on OKC, compare their pre-NBA shooting to their career numbers in the NBA, and apply that same increase to Dunn.

As you can see, dismissing outlier level shooting improvements (which could happen!), Dunn would hover around 23% from 3 with similarly marginal improvements at the line. Again, this is ignoring volume, team contexts, development patterns, etc., and is a remarkably simplified exercise. However, I think it illustrates the point that there's a long way to go as a shooter.

His tape does show some decent flashes. He shot 41.9% from the midrange, and flashes a smooth stroke off the dribble. The shot isn’t BROKEN like Roberson - it just requires a lot of development. Maybe Dunn can be a play who is best to get reps in the G-League, but that’s not often a path seen for first-round picks.

Let’s assume Dunn is a small 5 who screens, plays in the short roll or rim runs. With his size and frame, he compares similarly to someone like Jordan Bell, who had a short stint with the Warriors in this role. Bell never registered a single positive O-DPM, and he’s taller, more athletic, and a better passer (Bell had 3.6 assists per 100, doubling Dunn’s 1.8).

To summarize, Dunn has a difficult path to return value offensively. He provides so much value on the other side of the ball, but the offensive fit is murky if he’s not in a perfect team context. There is a remarkably small list of players who are positive for a team despite being negatives offensively. With all that being said, I think he is clearly outside the top 30 on my Big Board. Prove me wrong Ryan!

I originally posted this on twitter give me a follow if you are on there and liked the content! Going to have more of these prospect breakdowns coming soon! @ RutgersMilos

It's NBA awards season!

Since 2017 I've tracked the media voters and votes for the NBA Awards in a publicly available Google spreadsheet. Each year it has produced a conclusive outcome of who will win the NBA MVP before the award was handed out.

For those familiar with this project... Hi, we're back! Yes, even if the awards seem a bit anticlimactic this year.

In this post you'll find:

• History on this project dating back to 2017

• Summary of 2024 NBA awards ballot changes as we know them

• Prediction of who the 2024 awards voters are

• How you can help

History:

2023 was a banner year for vote tracking amidst a very public MVP race. Through crowdsourcing we identified 46 of the 100 NBA first place MVP votes with a 100% accuracy rate of both the ballots and votes in the tracker. We tracked 159 total MVP votes cast for first through fifth place and had 100% accuracy in the tracker.

Each of the individual award winners in the lead on the tracker took home the trophy.

Voters know who they are, but the league does not publicly disclose the voters for the awards. So I work to remove the mystery. We take voters at their word from podcasts, interviews, articles, and TV hits the same they would any interview or source.

I am a Rockets fan and this project started in 2017 when Westbrook prevailed over Harden in the MVP race. That year was particularly interesting because the league reformed how awards balloting worked without being very public about the changes. In the end I weeks ahead of the now defunct NBA Awards Show.

The tracker follows these awards:

• NBA MVP

• All-NBA Teams

• Defensive Player of the Year

• Sixth Man of the Year

• Rookie of the Year

• Most Improved Player of the Year

• Coach of the Year

While there are other awards. There are generally not enough public vote disclosures for defensive teams, rookie teams, or clutch player to track them with any meaning.

Summary of 2024 awards changes as we know them:

This is a list of the changes to the awards ballot and process this year as we know them. Very possible there are more changes which will not be publicly announced. We may be learning as we go. Including some of the exceptions below...

• To be eligible for awards a player must have 65 games played. This has been widely reported, but has a few exceptions according to voter Rob Mahoney, from The Ringer NBA Show (April 10, 2024):

  • A player is still eligible if they played 62 or more games and suffered a season ending injury. It must have been declared as such.

  • There is no games played requirement for All-Rookie Teams.

• All-NBA is positionless now. This was announced last year. It seems to be a response to the Jokic and Embiid at center issue.

  • This will make All-NBA even more difficult to predict in this tracking project. Over the years we've gotten close. But there's always too many missing variables to view the All-NBA portion of the tracker as anything but a snapshot or real time measure.

• Howard Beck Tweeted there will be some changes to how the ballots are cast.

  • The league did not send ballots when they normally do. Voters traditionally get the ballots in the final week of the season. The due date would coincide with the end of the season. Beck Tweeted that voting will take place after the season, sometime between April 16 - 19.

NBA awards wrinkle, just sent by the league:

* bc of new 65-game rule, we are not receiving the ballot links today.

* Ernst & Young, which runs process, will send electronic ballots sometime after season concludes (Sunday), so they can determine player eligibility first.

* Voting will take place sometime between April 16-19.

· 56.3K Views

• I've seen no hint that there's a fan vote this year or an intent to do an awards show.

On games played: In practice the official awards ballot is filled out online and has used dropdown menus. The league will be able to remove ineligible players from the menu preventing voters from breaking these rules. Beck also says Ernst & Young will rule on eligibility before ballots go out.

On ballots: Tracking this year will be more difficult than past seasons. The extra time means there may be more volatility and voter movement. I expect to see more preliminary vote declarations than past years. Folks may do something different in a close race than what they said before the season ended. Last year's example: Jalen Rose announced he was Giannis on April 9th. Then switched to Embiid publicly on April 10th. Again, we track voters for what they've said publicly.

I do expect to get some things wrong this year because of this.

Prediction of who the 2024 awards voters are

The voters have already been notified and agreed to vote this year. There's no mystery for the voters themselves, the NBA and likely the teams lobbying them who they are.

I'm a guy compiling lists with the best stuff I've got. And I don't have that list. That said...

The greatest predictor of who votes for the NBA MVP and awards is who voted for NBA All-Star starters that season:

• In 2020: 95% of the All-Star media voters also voted for NBA MVP

• In 2021: 97% of the All-Star media voters also voted for NBA MVP

• In 2022: 97% of the All-Star media voters also voted for NBA MVP

• In 2023: 96% of the All-Star media voters also voted for NBA MVP

The lowest this percentage has gone since 2017 is 93%. So we can generally assume 90% of the voting pool will come from the All-Star starters media voters. They make some changes between then and now. I'd expect that to happen again. Doris Burke didn't cast an All-Star ballot this year, but I'd be surprised if she didn't cast a vote for end of season awards. And if you got an All-Star ballot then get bumped by Doris Burke I assume you understand.

Just linking to that list of voters isn't enough fun though. It doesn't give me the chance to show how much time I've spent staring at this stuff (think of all the things I could have done instead, yikes).

Each year I will include voters in the tracker under two conditions.

Option One: A voter says they have a ballot. Easy. But, we're looking for them to confirm they have an official ballot. Not "my ballot." Example: Ben Golliver wrote an article for the Washington Post today "Jokic is undoubtably the MVP and more NBA awards picks." The catch, the Washington Post doesn't allow writers to vote on awards. Ben is absolutely qualified and voted with Sports Illustrated in the past, but he's not one of the one hundred. A fact he includes in the article.

Option Two: A voter has consistent recent voting history and is with the same publication. Over the years I have surmised that votes often go to publications, not writers. So even some of the most esteemed folks drop out of the voting pool when they move jobs.

I personally refer to this option as "good standing" and will include a voter if...

• The media member voted for the 2024 NBA All-Star Starters

• The media member voted for the 2023 NBA MVP & Awards

• The media member voted for the 2023 NBA All-Star Starters

• The media member is at the same publication/has the same employer currently as when they cast the three ballots listed above

If someone meets those requirements they're almost assuredly a ballot holder.

So let's look at a list of the folks who qualify for this metric...

• Sam Amick The Athletic

• Zach Harper The Athletic

• Chris Mannix Sports Illustrated

• Dave McMenamin ESPN

• Kevin O'Connor The Ringer

• Kendrick Perkins ESPN

• JJ Redick ESPN

• Bill Reiter

• Stephen A. Smith ESPN

• Chris Broussard Fox

• Vince Goodwill Yahoo!

• Cassidy Hubbarth ESPN

• Frank Isola Sirus Radio

• Duane Rankin Arizona Republic

• Josh Robbins The Athletic DC

• Ryen Russillo The Ringer

• Ramona Shelburne ESPN

• David Aldridge The Athletic

• Maxime Aubin L'Equipe

• Tim Bontemps ESPN

• Roderick Boone Charlotte Observer

• Ric Bucher FS1

• Shams Charania The Athletic/Stadium

• Anthony Chiang Miami Herald

• Demichael Cole Memphis Commerical Appeal

• Antoni Daimiel Movistar+

• Michael Grange Rogers Sportsnet

• Mike Greenberg ESPN

• Will Guillory The Athletic NO

• Kurt Helin

• Adam Himmelsbach Boston Globe

• Kelly Iko The Athletic HOU

• Marc Kestecher ESPN

• Jeff McDonald San Antonio Express-News

• Yoav Modai Sport 5

• Dave Pasch ESPN

• Keith Pompey Phildelphia Inquirer & Daily News

• Shaun Powell

• Melissa Rohlin Fox Sports

• Taylor Rooks Bleacher Report

• Dennis Scott Warner Bros. Discovery

• Bill Simmons The Ringer

• Anthony Slater The Athletic

• Doug Smith The Toronto Star

• Steve Smith Warner Bros. Discovery

• Seerat Sohi The Ringer

• Justin Termine SiriusXM Radio

• Joe Vardon The Athletic

• David Villafranca EFE News

• Chris Fedor

• Brian Mahoney Associated Press

• Kevin Pelton ESPN

• Stephanie Ready Warner Bros. Discovery

• Tim Reynolds Associated Press

• Stan Van Gundy Warner Bros. Discovery

• Chao Meng ESPN China

• Greg Anthony Warner Bros. Discovery

• Ernie Johnson Warner Bros. Discovery

• Jared Greenberg Warner Bros. Discovery

• Michael Pina The Ringer

• Dan Devine Yahoo! Sports

• Rob Mahoney The Ringer

• Steve Aschburner

• John Schuhmann

• Michael Wright

• Matt Winer Warner Bros. Discovery

• Jeff Zillgitt USA Today

• Michael Wilbon ESPN

• Gary Washburn Boston Globe

• Ohm Youngmisuk ESPN

• Brian Windhorst ESPN

• Yoko Miyaji Sports Graphic Number

That's 72 probable voters. It would be a surprise if any of these folks were not voters in 2024.

Then without going through all the additional names, the remainder of the 2024 All-Star pool included:

• 9 reinstated voters. These were media members who have cast an awards vote in the past, but did not get a ballot either last year or for a few years. The most high profile name in this group is Candace Parker. Several of these are local writers who represent the regional portion of the voting pool.

• 12 new voters. These were media members who cast their first vote of any type with the 2024 NBA All-Star ballot. Richard Jefferson and Chiney Ogwumike are the most known names in this group.

  • This pool includes several international voters, who generally makeup 10 - 12 total voters. The list of voters in good standing includes six international voters. So there's likely 4 - 6 international media voters in addition to them. This does not include Canada-based media members who I consider to be voters representing the Toronto media market or the same as a media member working for an American outlet covering the NBA at large.

• 3 voters who moved outlets and that is their own disqualifier from my list above: Howard Beck, Chris Herring and Khobi Price.

• A few peculiarities. Rachel Nichols and Adam Lefkoe didn't cast 2023 All-Star ballots. But did cast 2023 MVP votes and 2024 All-Star votes.

Some notable missing names (who may still have ballots):

• Zach Lowe - He publicly declared he wanted a break from voting and did not cast an NBA All-Star ballot. I don't know if he extended that to the end of year awards, but have removed him.

• Doris Burke - She didn't cast an All-Star vote this year. I believe she has voted on everything since 2018. This was a surprise.

Lastly, the local markets have change and turnover. The NBA hinted in 2017 they would have one voter from every media market. Some years they've missed that goal. Sometimes that local vote is passed between different publications (Salt Lake City) or within a newsroom (Dallas). There will be turnover in a place like Denver where longtime Denver Post writer Mike Singer is no longer with the paper after being a consistent voter.

How You Can Help:

If you find any media member saying they have an official NBA Awards ballot, even if they don't say who they vote for, send it my way!

Include a link or timestamp to anything you find. I include primary sourcing in all tracking efforts. If a Mike Breen says his vote in the third quarter of an NBA broadcast send me a note saying what game and what minute he shared his ballot.

Lastly, I'm a single person with no editor who does this for fun. I'll always correct stuff I get wrong. I err on the side of caution and am pretty proud of how this has held up over the years. This year may be more difficult than past years because the ballot deadline has been extended.

If you read all of this you're a sicko and I'm right there with you.

Were willing to die for Jimmy one day Next day we're willing to not sign him an extension because it's too expensive like it's our money Forgetting about these great 5 seasons he's gave us with 3 ECF appearances and 2 finals

Getting mad at the FO for not improving the team but vehemently being against trading for Kyrie for some moral high ground (if you're semitic I understand and this doesn't include you)

And let's be real. There is no core without Jimmy. If Jimmy butler is done this whole team is done. Let's not pretend like this core can make any noise without him

Chris Haynes confirms that Brandon Ingram, who has been battling a knee injury, will make his return for the final Pelicans regular season game of the season against the Lakers.

Haynes: Brandon Ingram (knee, saw Lakers on schedule) expected to return Sunday.

"It’s hard to make a statistical argument that warrants Jones over someone like, say, Anthony Davis. But I don’t think anyone wreaked more unquantifiable havoc than Herb. You just kinda have to watch the Pelicans and make note of how many opponents’ offensive sets are unplugged by his hustle, length, and anticipation. He knows what’s going to happen before it does, climbs inside his man’s jersey, and blows up the play. Nobody ducks under a ball screen or dribble handoff and then recovers to take away (or block) the pull-up jumper faster than Jones. It’s almost like he fools shooters into thinking they have enough time and space to get something up. Unfortunately for them, Not on Herb:

When he trails over the screen and refuses to detach himself from the ball handler’s hip, Jones can not only offer a solid contest from behind, but also put one of his many superpowers on display, taking away any pass back to the screener.

Jones is dogged on the ball, where he assumes the toughest assignment each and every night. But it’s exceptional how often he mucks something up from the weak side, drifting off his man and pouncing at the exact right moment.

There have been literally hundreds of plays like this one where Herb, in some form or fashion, disrupts the opposition. It’s amazing."