My answer may be simple, but I feel like Dan Marino would light up today's NFL. And Bob Hayes

It’s gotta be the Packers having generational QB play for a solid 3 decades. Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and a very promising Jordan Love. Love still has a long way to go but it looks like the Packers struck gold once again. He’s had only one full season as a starter but he looked damn good.

The Athletic published an insider view of free agency today, with comments on each team. Here's what they said about the Colts:

APY added: $11.5M (29th) | APY lost: $20.3M (29th) | APY differential: -$8.8M (20th)

The Colts’ three AFC South rivals ranked second (Tennessee), third (Houston) and ninth () in combined APY added from outside free agents, committing a combined $225.8 million in APY toward those signings. The Colts ranked 30th with $11.5 million, and if all goes to plan, one of their two outside additions, Joe Flacco, will not play a snap.

“The biggest thing was being able to keep Grover (Stewart) and (Michael) Pittman,” an exec said. “Those are good players who are your players. They spent too much for . You are paying for height, weight, speed. It’s all good until they don’t play well.”

Per ESPN, the Colts offered more to Danielle Hunter than the former Vikings defensive end accepted from division-rival Houston, but with so many of its own players to re-sign, Indy did not wait for that process to play out. The Colts funneled nearly all their resources toward their own players, ranking second to Tampa Bay in combined APY allocated for re-signings ($73 million). That is what every team says it wants to do, but it can feel inadequate for teams that haven’t broken through.

“You have a team going into free agency needing a second receiver, a corner and a safety,” an exec said, “and those three things they can address with their first three picks. You can get a corner in the first, a No. 2 receiver in the second and a starting safety in the third.”

Addressing one or two of those needs in free agency or the trade market could have given the Colts greater flexibility. Instead, they signed Davis ($7 million APY) and the 39-year-old Flacco, while the Titans landed cornerback , the Jaguars signed receiver Gabe Davis and the Texans got the pass rusher Indy also wanted.

“Indy is not a destination team, so to have success re-signing guys who were not tagged and could have gone anywhere, I think they deserve some credit for that,” an exec said. “Fans are upset that L’Jarius Sneed got away to a division rival for only a third-round pick and a reasonable contract, but Indy has shown they’ll set a price and walk away.”

Link to the full article:

Interesting thing for me is the comment about Indy not being a destination team. I don't think that's stopped any of the other big spenders this off-season so I'm not sure it's a valid excuse, but I get why someone would rather play in California or Florida for less money.

Based on current ADP, who has the highest bust potential of the eligible draftees?

For example, the 49ers invented the shotgun formation, which is ubiquitous in the NFL and college football today

So I’m from the UK and I’ve never played ‘American football’ in my life so I’m curious if I would be any good at the sport. I love sports and have done most sports including boxing, rugby, soccer/football, tennis and go to the gym often. I’m 18 6’2 Around 180lbs And can run 100m in just under 12 seconds.

Very curious to know, Do you think I’d stand a fair chance playing an NFL college game or would I be well out my depths due to no experience?

A couple weeks ago I posted a synthesized to evaluate pre draft trades. I've tried to keep it updated throughout the FA period so trades made during that time are noted by bold italic script.

Using that chart, here is each teams draft equity in points. I will cover trades for picks #1 through #4 on this post, but the full article, also covers trades for picks #8, #11 through #13, and the potential contenders trading up.

2024 NFL Draft - Total Draft Capital

2024 NFL Draft - 1st Round Capital

2024 NFL Draft - Rounds 2 - 7 Draft Capital

Fair Trades

Using the chart above we can make "fair" offers for any draft slot. Fair will be defined as offer the amount of points a pick is worth without paying any premium. I am working on a methodology for calculating a "fair premium" on draft trades, but for this post let's assume no one is looking to fleece anyone.

Picks in drafts 2025 and beyond are worth a set value based on round. The value is seen in the final row in a bordered box in the draft chart.

Fair Trades For The #1 Pick

Seven teams are openly looking for a QB in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bears hold the #1 pick and can select the QB of their choice. So what are the "fair trade" offers from the six other teams to move up to #1?

WASHINGTON OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #2 pick

• #40 pick

• 2025 3rd round pick

NEW ENGLAND OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #3 pick

• #34 pick

• 2025 1st round pick

NY GIANTS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #6

• #47

• #70

• 2025 1st & 2nd

MINNESOTA OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #11

• #23

• #108

• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

DENVER OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #12

• #81

• #144

• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

• 2026 1st

LAS VEGAS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #13

• #44

• #77

• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

• 2026 2nd

Trading Up For Pick #2 or #3

Pick #2 & #3 in the 2024 draft could also be in play.  Rather creating a confusing chart with all sorts of offers strewn about, let's just summarize the difference between trading up for #1, and trading up for pick #2 or #3:

• The value of the #2 pick is 624 points less than pick #1. 
  The value of a future 1st round pick is 636.8.  624 points is roughly the value of the 29th pick in the draft.  So you can basically subtract a future or late 1st round pick from any #1 pick offer to make it a fair offer for the second pick.

• The value of the #3 pick is 1129 points(about the 12th pick in the draft) less than the #1 pick, or 505 points(37th pick) less than the second pick. 
  Thus to trade up for the #3 pick a team could do so without having to trade a second 1st rounder if they have the draft equity in the 2nd through 4th rounds.

Trading Up For The 4th Pick

This is probably the most interesting slot in the draft right now.  The Cardinals have a QB they say they like in Murray.  They can do the safe thing and take Harrison at #4, or they can roll the dice and trade back.  The draft boards are always in flux but I am going to take a shot and try to predict the order of positions taken in the draft.

I set two options for the first 6 picks: That 4QB 1WR & 1OL would be selected OR that 3QB 2WR & 1OT would be selected.  Naturally this means that neither of these scenarios will play out, but let's go through with this example in any case.

I made one assumption in all the mock drafts, that 3 QBs would be picked in the first 3 picks.

• An estimated % chance of the real draft following the mock is given.

• The Team column is my prediction of who makes the pick should the draft go in that predicted order. There is some flux in the predicted Team results.

• Since I think the chances of an OL being taken 4th is extremely low, it leads to all the mock drafts having an OL at #4 having a low chance of occuring.

An Unusual Trade Between Arizona, LA Chargers & NY Giants

Keeping in mind this is a lot of guesswork, there is about a 30% chance that the #4 pick is a QB.  There is a small chance someone would trade up for an OL at #4,  so let's say that is 3%.  That would leave about a 67% chance of a WR going #4. If the QB goes at #4, then almost assuredly pick #5 would be a WR.

The wild card in this is the Chargers at #5.  Would they take a WR to replace Allen or would they take a OT to protect Herbert?  Naturally their phones are going to be ringing too, so there are a lot of moving parts.  I think the Chargers want the best OT from this draft, but if they play coy and hint that they love the idea of a WR at #5, they could bluff their way into a extra day 3 pick.

How about this for a trade scenario that involves no teams outside the top 6?

The Cardinals agree to trade #4 to the NY Giants for pick #6:

• The Cardinals receive picks #6, #107 and a 2025 3rd round pick from the Giants.

• The Chargers receive pick #138 from the Cardinals in exchange for selecting an OL at #5.

• The Giants receive pick #4 with assurances they will take a QB.

This scenario ends with the NYG with a QB, the Chargers with the best OT, and the Cardinals with the best WR.  The Giants overpay the Cardinals by about the value of the 5th round pick that the Cardinals then flip to the Chargers.  Thus the Giants are paying for the pick to the Chargers by overpaying Arizona.

The good news for the Giants is they get their QB of the future at the cost of a 3rd and 4th round pick. The Cardinals are swapping a 5th for a 4th and picking up a 3rd in 2025.  The Chargers bluff their way into a bonus 5th round pick.  Most importantly, every team gets what they wanted at a cost everyone can live with.

Paying A Premium

On Monday I hope to post the second part of the article which will look into:

• Calculating a fair premium to charge a team for trading up.

• Projected landing slot for 1st player chosen at each position

• Potential 1st round trades for every team

• A premium trade offer for each prime draft slot in play

• A projection of what the team holding the pick would do if given a premium offer for the pick.