Tesla

IMHO, Tesla has peaked. Today's news is bad, but the reason I know they've peaked is that they have nothing good in the pipeline. The best idea anyone can come up with at Tesla HQ is to produce a small car, which anyone in the industy will tell you is hard. Really, really hard. So hard that most automakers don't even bother. So hard that if Tesla actually develops the Model2,it could be their undoing.

Instead, I believe we've arrived at peak Tesla. They'll keep selling cars because they have some cachet, and they'll make money because they have economies of scale, but they'll never be bigger than they were last year.

When historians look back, they'll see Tesla fucked up their vehicle development plan almost immediately after Elon got his hands in things and fired Rawlinson:

• Roadster was a glorified concept, but it did it's job and put them on the map. I'd write it down as a win.

• Releasing the S first was fine. Larger sedans are profitable (albeit low volume), and they can act as a platform for a mid-size crossover (also profitable). And Elon had a real pro managing things back then (Rawlinson) so it was a great car all things considered. I'd write the S down as a win too.

• Model X was an unmitigated disaster. It should have been what the Y was to the 3 - an upsized version of the S. Instead, it was Elon's gullwing door fuckup. It cost the company a lot of momentum and potentially 2 years of wasted product development time. 2 years they'll never get back. 2 years that future analysis will point to as evidence of Elon's gross mismanagement. 2 years that likely sealed Tesla's fait as an also-ran.

• Tesla completely missed out on the commercial delivery vehicle business. When Tesla's engineers were screwing around with gullwing doors, they should have been developing a cheap electric delivery van. Delivery vehicles are ideal for BEV powertrains, as they don't drive far and they're highly visible. But Tesla ignored that business and Rivian is the beneficiary. Not to mention, a van platform would have been relatively easy to turn into a mid-size truck platform (see Honda Odyssey).

• Model 3 was previewed way too early - it should have been shown a year or so later alongside a Model Y prototype. Both vehicles could have been developed at the same time on the same platform to maximize efficiency. Also, Tesla could have avoided producing cars in a fucking tent (which will go down in auto manufacturing history as one of the most ridiculous things any automaker has ever done) and just planned production for Austin.

  • Allegedly, Tesla rushed the Model 3 reveal b/c they were in dire financial straits, no doubt because of mismanaged capital investments.

• Oh, and the Nevada battery plant was a collossal fuck-up too. Elon's emphasis on vertical integration will not be looked upon fondly whenever his biography is written. All automakers used to be vertically integrated, but over time they learned that vertical integration is inherently risky. Why build, own, and maintain an entire manufacturing plant when you can just negotiate a good deal on the products the plant produces, with no long term obligations? Way less risk if there's a change in the business environment (like a slowdown) or a change in technology (like solid state batteries). That Nevada battery plant is going to be a boat anchor for a very long time.

• Tesla Semi was just a run of the mill fuck-up, assuming they half-assed it. I don't blame Tesla for playing with the concept of a BEV big rig - it's highly visible and it might make sense as a port vehicle or local delivery vehicle - but it was a distraction. There's not a lot of money in big rigs unless you're selling parts for them (very much a feast or famine industry - most automakers don't bother for a reason). Assuming Tesla didn't sink a lot of time or money into that concept, it's just a run of the mill fuck-up.

• Model S, Model X, and Model 3 refresh were never planned, which is just fucking hilarious. Somehow Tesla failed to understand the importance of a 3-4 year vehicle refresh cadence. Collossal fuck-up, especially when you consider Tesla should have known better by 2017 or so and STILL didn't make plans to refresh the 3 until last year! It's like they're not even paying attention, LOL.

• Cybertruck was/is a distraction. Niche vehicles are fun and can have a halo effect, but they almost never make money. They're too low volume to ever cover the up-front costs. From all accounts, Tesla spent way too much time and money on developing a truck that might sell 50k units this year. I predict it will be cancelled in 2031 (maybe sooner).

• Model Y was released a bit too late, but was well received and has been profitable. It's kind of boring, but boring pays the bills. I'd write it down as a win too, and if I was in charge at Tesla I'd put whomever was in charge of the Y in charge of future product dev. It's not perfect or anything like that, but someone knows what they're doing.

• Roadster 2 is bullshit. I doubt anyone has done any serious work on that, but who knows. Tesla is mismanaged enough to sink funds into another halo car even as the house as on fire, but I doubt it. I think it's vaporware.

All in all, Tesla fucked up on half of the models they've developed. Compared to GM and Chrysler in the 1990s and early 2000s, that's not bad. And if this was 2004 and not 2024, Tesla would very much be in the game. But, unfortunately for Elon, he's not competing with GM or Chrysler from the 1990s or early 2000s.

But the real dick kick for Elon and Tesla is that THERE'S NOTHING IN THE HOPPER. They let Rivian have the stylish 3 row crossover market, as well as the cool off-road mid-size pickup market, and also the light commercial market. Rivian sends their thanks.

And they've let Lucid beat them on the flagship big sedan market, which means everything is riding on the Model 3 and the Model Y. Not great.

And the rest of the automakers are about to kick the door in, especially Hyundai and VW. Shit only gets harder from this point forward...which means Tesla has peaked.

Where do we go from here: Tesla will slowly lose market share. They'll make grandiose statements about this or that, and they'll probably produce a couple of cool concepts in the next 5 years or so. But because of competition, they won't grow sales.

As the Tesla fleet ages, their service centers will produce significant profits and prop the company up even as their models flop. And I'm sure the Tesla faithful will stay engaged as long as Elon Elons. But at some point, Tesla will sell a significant share of the company to another automaker, and fall under that automakers umbrella...sort of like how Mitsubishi motors is under the Nissan-Renault umbrella.

And eventually Elon will find a pink slip on his desk, and he'll start a podcast or something where he rails about this and that, kind of like Bob Lutz did. But in a more embarrassing manner.

The end.

We got a new Model Y this year but it feels a bit small now that we’ve owned it a few months. We also came from a lifted GX460 so I’m kind of missing the higher up, more rugged SUV ride. We still have the GX but we do 2-3k miles a month so we don’t drive it much now. We pay $0.05 per kWh off peak and that’s dirt cheap compared to $500-$800 in gas each month for the GX.

I’ve been thinking about trading the Model Y for an R1S and getting rid of the GX altogether.

The closest demo drive I can do is 3 hours away so I’m trying to learn and do as much research as possible before I commit a whole day to go see one.

Are there any Tesla features that you wish the Rivian had? Are there any Rivian features that are considerably better than Tesla? It seems like people are more satisfied with Rivian than they are with Tesla, which is great because we really have no complaints with the Model Y.

Edit: forgot to ask, does it have auto wipers and do they work better than the ones on Teslas?