I don't know about you guys, but the NFL brings light to my life. Whenever it starts, it revives me; I feel like I have a reason to live again. It's depressing when there are no games; I feel terrible.

Been a lot of discussion about the players that choose to sit out the combine to not hurt their stock.

What are some of the high profile examples of prospects that came out for the worse after their combine? How much can a prospect at the top truly be hurt by one bad week of performance?

Is there any precedent that it is to protect them from injury? Like a torn pec on the bench press or something?

If the Bucs win 9 or more games, that will make us 317/776 = 0.409.

If the Cards win 4 or fewer games, that will make them 590/1446 = 0.408.

Edit: I can't math in the morning. If Cards win 5 or fewer.

Offseason going to offseason.

We’re kicking off week two of our positional draft rankings. After discussing the top ten running backs and linebackers already, we’re advancing to wide receivers. I’m explaining my reasoning for how I have these names stacked up based on in-depth tape analysis, while using advanced metrics and to some degree testing numbers to aid my arguments.

Similarly to most years recently, we have a massive influx of pass-catching talent due to how much more aerial-centric football has become at the youth levels already. Yet, unlike some other drafts we’ve gone through, this group includes some true blue-chip talent. I have two guys with true top-five grades, another name that’ll probably end up in my top ten on the big board and potentially up to like 20 receivers inside my top-100. So I may have to come back in my annual “my guys” episode to discuss some of these lower-ranked names, since there’s still a lot to like about them.

Now let’s get into the list however:

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1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

6’4”, 205 pounds; JR

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Son of a Hall of Fame-level receiver in Marvin Sr., who formed the greatest connection in the NFL historically statistics-wise with Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, Marvin Jr. was kind of stuck behind a ridiculous WR trio of Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a freshman. However, in year two he exploded onto the scene with 79 touches for just under 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns, making him a unanimous All-American. Despite missing one week this past season, he basically put up identical numbers and repeated those honors, whilst being named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year winning the Fred Biletnikoff award for the top WR in the country.

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Releases & route-running:

+ Has nimble feet off the line, making defenders freeze as he glides by them

+ Yet he’s pro-active with defeating the hands of press-attempts and doesn’t allow himself to get held up – Shows an advanced understanding for which technique and how aggressive DBs are at challenging his release, more so looking like a pass-rusher swiping by blockers at times

+ For a lankier build, Harrison can lean and plant outside his frame exceptionally well

+ Straightens out his stem after the release, to force contact with defenders, who then often have to grab as he sticks his foot in the ground, in order to not get lost out of the break

+ Graded out as an elite deep threat in 2023 (99.9 PFF grade), hauling in 15 of 24 targets of 20+ air yards for 598 yards and five TDs

+ So flexible in his ankles to roll through cuts and accelerate out of them

+ Does a great job of pacing himself and just rolling through breaks below 90 degrees in order to maximize windows against zone coverage, particularly on quick in routes as the flanker or backside digs before the safety can barrel down in quarters

+ Shows a knack for working his way open and making defenders in the secondary desperately try to locate him

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Ball-tracking, positioning & catching:

+ Elite body control for a receiver of his height, being able adjust to passes mid-flight as well as dissociate his upper and lower body for spectacular catches at the sideline or at the back of the end-zone

+ Tracks the ball exceptionally well over either shoulder and wins with late hands down the field, naturally letting it drop into pocket and not allowing a defender on his hip to disrupt the catch point

+ Uses late turns to defeat trailing DBs down the field, taking advantage of them having their backs to the quarterback

+ Showcases great flexibility when balls are thrown a step behind him and he doesn’t even need to break stride, particularly on crossers

+ Gets held routinely, but doesn’t complain to the refs rather than fighting through contact and often times still making the catch anyway, at times as defenders are already tackling his legs from behind

+ Understands how to draw flags for pass interference, by making defenders run into him or forcing them to reach around him

+ Hauled in 18 of 30 contested targets in 2022 (60%), while his 43.3% success rate last season is more so a representation of some of the prayers that were thrown up to him by quarterback Kyle McCord

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Run after catch & blocking:

+ Features a shockingly rapid turn up the field after making the grab as he’s working back towards the quarterback

+ Recognizes when he can utilizes spin moves every once in a while as DBs are driving on him and he makes them whiff

+ Puts the ball away and keeps his elbow in tight to not swing it around loosely – only fumbled once across 155 career receptions

+ Basically earned back-to-back elite PFF grades (90.2 and 89.9) whilst increasing his yards per route run from 3.18 to an insane 3.44 last year (649 total snaps)

+ Does well to slice up into the space of defenders in soft press alignment and at least getting a hand inside their chest

+ When he does get those paws latched, they don’t typically slide off and he continues to move his legs

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Weaknesses:

- Sometimes there’s a little bit of discomfort when balls are thrown at his chest and he doesn’t extend for it – dropped six of 73 catchable passes in 2023

- That also reflects in his passer rating of just 48.2 when targeted in that range of 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage

- Doesn’t necessarily have that extra gear once the ball is in his hands to just stride away from the defense, and he’s not a super-creative YAC guy, who makes people miss one-on-one with consistency – only forced five missed tackles last season (67 catches)

- Not dying to get involved as a blocker in the run game, more so wanting to find that agreement with his corner to just

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As great as this wide receiver class is, Marvin is a true unicorn. You just don’t find true juniors with his type of balanced athletic profile, premiere size and the refined skills plus IQ for the position. He’s significantly before and at than after the catch, to where you don’t want to funnel designed touches his way necessarily, such as screens. However, he can line up at every single receiver spot and projects as an All-Pro level target, who can consistently win his one-on-one matchups when singled up on the backside of the formation. Harrison Jr. is capable of defeating press in a variety of ways, whether he has to apply finesse or force, his body-control to efficiently get out of his breaks is rare for a guy his size and then he makes highly challenging catches look routine frequently. Even though quarterback gets the positional value bump, you can easily make a case for this to be the top name on any team’s big board.

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2. Malik Nabers, LSU

6’0”, 200 pounds; JR

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A four-star recruit in 2021, Nabers already caught 28 passes for over 400 yards and four touchdowns as a true freshman, before going for over 1000 yards but only three TDs on 72 grabs in 2022. This past season, he finished behind only Washington’s Rome Odunze – who played nearly two extra games, thanks to going to the Natty and Nabers only playing the first quarter of LSU’s bowl game, in order to set the school record – with 1569 yards on 89 receptions, scoring on 14 of those. That earned him first-team All-American accolades, although he just finished second in voting for the Fred Biletnikoff award.

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Releases & route-running:

+ Elite mover for any position, combining his flexibility with the abruptness he can also access

+ Has the instant acceleration to threaten DBs along with the extra gear to win down the field

+ That ability to slow-play the release vs. soft press and then hit the gas, to get even with the hip of corners in that five-yard window is eye-popping

+ We’ve seen him blow right by flat-footed safeties or rotations into different versions of (invert) cover-two for long TDs on streak and skinny post routes against some of the premiere defenses in college football these last couple of years (Georgia in the 2022 SEC Championship, Alabama in ’23)

(Blew right by Georgia’s All-SEC corner Kelee Ringo and safety Malachi Starks in cover-two for a touchdown in the second half of the ’22 SEC Championship; And then got past those two in quarters with a skinny post route for an explosive play on the very next drive)

+ Constantly is able to cleanly release inside of straight press-attempts and then the dynamism with which he plants and breaks across the field is truly special

+ The way he can threaten with the take-off and then snap off curl routes made him highly effective on those, yet he can also flip his hips around on speed outs without losing time at the top

+ Understands really well how to sell the initial break on double-moves by decelerating and raising up, before accessing that extra gear to run by guys

+ Recognizes when a safety steps down and tries to cut him off working across the field, adjusting his angle/depth to work towards open grass and make himself available for the quarterback

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Ball-tracking, positioning & catching:

+ Shows no issues at all extending for the ball with defenders surrounding him and swiping at it as soon as he touches

+ Truly gifted with special body coordination, particularly as he approaches the white line due to the flight of the ball or works the back-line of the end-zone

+ How quickly Naber can elevate and then again get a foot down on the ground really stands out, where it doesn’t look like going for a rebound in basketball or having to hang in the air

+ Is able to finish some challenging grabs, where he has to dive back for the ball and pin it against his chest in order for the ground to not dislodge it

+ Posted a massive 61.9% contested catch rate in 2022 (13-of-21), thanks to the way he positions himself, the vertical hops and how much better he is at timing up his high-points; Before another solid rate last year (45.5%), which actually increased with the deeper he was targeted

+ Delivered on third downs, catching 15 of 26 targets which moved the chains (2022?)

+ Exactly half of his 86 catches in 2023 went for 15+ yards (93.5 PFF receiving grade), which is insane

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Run after catch & blocking:

+ Reminiscent of D.J. Moore in terms of frame and YAC skills, where he shows zero delays in becoming a runner as he hauls in crossing routes

+ How quickly he re-accelerates are securing the ball on a curl route or has to stop for the catch is pretty special

+ Turns routine plays into explosives, such as catching a hitch between a couple of hook defenders, spinning away from one guy and then nearly splitting the deep safeties in two-high looks, which makes your jaw drop to the floor

+ Yet he can also change up gears on sweeps or screen plays to delay a little bit before he kicks into top gear

+ Forced 51 missed tackles and gained 120 first downs (along with 17 touchdowns) on 161 catches in over the past two seasons combined

+ Had passer ratings when targeted of 144.4 and 121.9 respectively on passes behind the line of scrimmage these last two years, speaking to his skills to create on simple screen passes

+ Finds a good balance to urgently eat up space towards slot defenders yet being able to square them up and force them to take wider angles around him in the run game

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Weaknesses:

- Ran basically all hitches, slants and go routes as a sophomore, without a whole lot of nuance and is still in need of developing a release package that doesn’t largely revolve around speed – which is why he operated out of the slot on 53.6% of snaps in 2023

- Every once in a while will have a focus drop, where he takes his eyes off the ball prematurely because he’s already in running mode

- Seems to slip at a weirdly high rate, where he doesn’t keep his feet underneath himself and drop his hips at the break-point all the time

- Muffed two punts in the 2022 season-opener against Florida State and never got any more chances, despite his dynamic open-field skills

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It’s rare to find a receiving profile where someone has 19 receptions of 20+ yards but also forced 30 missed tackles in his final collegiate season, showcasing the ability to be a menace running away from the defense before or after the catch. It’s even more uncommon that a guy like that isn’t the number one prospect at his position – although it is pretty close for me. He’s not as tall or strong as Marvin Harrison Jr., he’s been more effective on the inside and he’ll drop a pass every once in a while because he’s trying to create an explosive play with it. However, I’m more so nit-picking here, because the strengths massively outweigh those factors. All things considered, he may be the most dynamic mover I’ve ever scouted at the position, considering how quickly he gets up to and back down from full gear, the flexibility to not lose speed as he slightly alters his routes, how he’s able to extend his catch radius without needing a whole lot of space to load up his jumps and then the diverse skills after the catch. I’d personally take him over any non-quarterback in this draft outside of MHJ.

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3. Rome Odunze, Washington

6’3”, 210 pounds; RS JR

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A four-star recruit in 2020, Odunze appeared in just a couple of games a true freshman, before flashing his skills as part of the WR rotation for the Huskies in year two (41-415-four), However, with the arrival of transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. in 2022, Odunze’s numbers really took off, touching the ball 78 times for 1151 yards and eight TDs, making him a first-team All-Pac-12 selection. This past season he ascended to superstar status, leading the country with 1640 yards on 92 catches and scoring 14 total touchdowns, making him a first-team All-American.

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Releases & route-running:

+ Highly efficient route-runner, who doesn’t waste much time stuttering his feet or taking longer paths to get to where he ultimately needs to be

+ Smooth mover who can elude the jam at the line and put DBs in trail position early on, without ever giving it up again

+ Yet he also possesses enough play strength to not allow himself to get thrown off a whole lot when someone doesn’t connect with his chest and he’ll rip through that

+ Was an elite vertical threat in 2023, leading the country in catches of 20+ yards (23 – on 49 targets) and yards off those (783)

+ Understands how to attack the blind-spots of defenders and selling them take-offs, in order to get them turned the wrong way as a route-runner

+ Capable of making safeties look silly when he ends up isolated with them down the field and he gets them spun around with a little rocker-step or drift before the break

+ Can really drop his hips and explode off the inside foot out to the sideline on pivot routes

+ Showcases the suddenness to elude ancillary zone defenders or guys leverages towards where he needs to go

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Ball-tracking, positioning & catching:

+ Makes sure to stay friendly for the quarterback by staying flat or even slightly working back towards that guy when going over the middle of the field

+ Can really snatch those balls off the top shelf and grabbing it over his head without losing speed on some crossing route

+ Even at awkward arrival angles of the ball, Odunze can turn his neck, star straight up if necessary and look it into his hands

+ Great body-control and awareness for the sideline, smoothly flipping his body around as the ball is placed away from corners playing way off

+ Adjusts well to underthrown deep balls or back-shoulder placement and forcing defenders to go over his back

+ Has definitely improved his ability to position himself for the ball hanging up in the air a little bit and you saw Washington actually target him on goal-line fades

+ Took the old adage of making 50-50 balls into 75-25 ones literally, as he hauled in 21 of 28 contested catch opportunities in 2023

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Run after catch & blocking:

+ Makes it hard for defenders to find him working behind blockers in space on tunnel screens

+ Has a knack for turning his shoulders away for defenders reaching out for him

+ When he does have his ankles clipped, Odunze does a good job of kicking his heels up and has the balance to stay alive as a runner

+ After turning 60 of his 75 catches into either a first down or touchdown, Odunze was even more efficient with a larger workload this past season, as only five(!) of his 92 grabs didn’t move the chains or put points on the board

+ Does a nice job of selling the release off the line and gaining proper positioning as a blocker in the process

+ Yet he can pull the safety out of the run fit when tasked with slot fades for example

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Weaknesses:

- Lacks the long speed to break phase down the field and be able to catch uncontested passes

- For as amazing as he was attacking the ball through contact last season, he had only hauled in five of 22 contested targets (22.7%) over his two prior years as a starter with the Huskies, kind of mis-timing how he high-pointed the ball

- Averaged just 4.6 and 5.6 yards after the catch respectively these last two seasons, as somebody who more so just tries to run away from guys other than actually making people miss and you don’t ever really see him shake/shrug off tacklers

- Way too often allows defenders to run through him when his teammates are catching screen passes, being tentative with his punch

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In many other years, Odunze would be the top wide receiver on the board. He’s a smooth operator with a flair for the dramatic when the ball is in the air. He can elude contact at the line of scrimmage but also fight through it, he’s efficient with not taking excess steps at the break point thanks to the flexibility and then he has an elite combination of body-control and ball-skills. I don’t think he quite has that extra gear to detach vertically when defenders are in phase with him and he’s not a game-breaker after the catch necessarily, but that’s more so about the style of player he is. Meanwhile there are no real weaknesses to his game and I think he can be a legit number one outside receiver for a long time in the NFL, who still wins frequently in a vertical capacity just because of how hell he gets into those routes, to some degree thanks to how well he sells double-moves. I do believe the two names ahead of him are in their own tier, but I’d be fine with Rome going any time once those two are off the board.

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4. Adonai Mitchell, Texas

6’2”, 200 pounds; JR

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A top-500 overall recruit in 2021 for Georgia, Mitchell caught 29 passes for 426 yards and four touchdowns as a true freshman. In year two, he appeared in only six games due to a high-ankle sprain, catching just nine balls, but those went for 134 yards and three TDs. In a full 14 games with Texas this past season, he turned 55 receptions into 845 yards and 11 TDs, earning second-team All-Big 12 accolades and being named the conference’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year.

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Releases & route-running:

+ Lightning-quick feet off the line and threatens vertically right off the snap, with his pads over his knees, to back up his 4.35 in the 40

+ Very elusive to evade defenders trying to impede his progress during the route development

+ In particular, he has a real knack for turning his body and reducing the near-shoulder in order to not lose speed on vertical routes

+ Has a great understanding for how to widen his stem to create space and choosing the appropriate angles to take downfield depending on how the safeties rotate and operate generally

+ Deceptive route-runner, who will lean, change up his pace and footwork in order to make guys turn the wrong way, turning the process into an art form

+ The way he can add a little shake to freeze defenders and run away from them is pretty rare, which you’ll see on some double-moves, but it’s the subtle details as he reacts to how defenders turn, that make them look silly

+ Runs a sweet out route, where he threatens the post with an inside stem and then sticks his foot in the ground to beat them to the sideline

+ He’s a nightmare matchup on slants at the goal-line, with the guy he walk onto the toes and get corners off balance before sticking his foot in the ground

+ You love the flexibility and spatial awareness to win in those condensed areas and be an effective red-zone weapon

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Ball-tracking, positioning & catching:

+ Consistently is friendly to his quarterback when breaking towards the middle of the field

+ Frames the ball well, making a mental picture of it, and is able to run through the catch without ever leaving it behind himself

+ Actively works back down towards the quarterback after backing up defenders with the vertical push

+ Tracks the deep ball exceptionally well, letting it drop in over the shoulder and only reaching out at the last moment

+ Shows tremendous concentration to haul in passes with a defender on his hip and raking at his arms

+ Has some impressive snatches on passes behind him or where he has to stretch over his head, such as on digs or glances

+ Only dropped one of 65 catchable passes over the last two years, despite some sub-par ball placement from Quinn Ewers at Texas in particular

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Run after catch & blocking:

+ Violently sticks his foot in the ground and gets with the vertical once he secures the catch

+ Had a monster performance vs. Alabama in their 2023 upset win at Tuscaloosa, where he beat star cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry off the line, out of the break and at the catch point

+ Does a great job of eating up the cushion of off-corners and get his hands latched into their chest

+ You like the way he sells the vertical release and then uses the momentum of defenders against them by pushing at the shoulder-pad and keep riding them

+ Slides inside and maintains a wide base as he walls off safeties when asked to crack back on perimeter-oriented run calls

+ Was motioned inside to insert the C-gap against safeties a few times

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Weaknesses:

- While some of it has to do with the way he alters speed, Mitchell has been accused of not always playing up to what he clocks at, while being a little out of control running routes at times with a false step or two

- His receiving grade vs. zone (49th-percentile) was significantly worse than vs. single coverage (98th-percentile)

- Not much of a dynamic YAC threat, who will just make multiple people miss in consecutive fashion

- Needs to do a better job of securing blocks against defenders lined up inside of him (particularly out of the slot) and not allowing them to get past him on screens and plays out to the perimeter

- Obviously has an extensive medical history and has only caught 5+ passes in four career games

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While there’s certainly a bit of gap between the “big three” among receivers and the rest of the class, Mitchell is my favorite guy to watch of the bunch. His ability to paint a picture with his route-running and understand how to truly manipulate defenders with the way he sets them up but also reacts to their technique on the fly is second to none this year. You can look at him not always showcasing quite a same urgency, I personally see a guy who is already like a pro in the way he can force DBs to not play as fast they could and manages games in a certain way. Mitchell doesn’t give you a whole lot of dynamism in the open field maybe – even if his YAC numbers are lower based on the average depth of target he saw – but in terms of creating openings for the ball, the ability to gain positioning and make challenging catches look easy, I just believe his game translates so well to the next level. Assuming full health and adding how tremendously well he tested at the combine, I think he’s a plug-and-play starter worthy of going around pick 20.

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5. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

6’3”, 210 pounds; JR

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One of the top-100 national recruits in 2021, Thomas was listed behind Kayshon Boutte and Malik Nabers his first couple of years, but was still able to turn 59 receptions into 720 yards and seven touchdowns. As a junior, he really broke out for the Tigers, turning 68 catches into 1177 yards and 17 TDs, which earned him second-team All-SEC accolades.

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Releases & route-running:

+ At 209 pounds, his 4.33 speed is pretty insane, and he makes sure to push up to defenders with pads out in front to quickly eat up their cushion

+ Can give his man a little wiggle off the line and then detach vertically for big plays, along with packing a dynamic shoulder-turn to elude jams

+ Was an elite deep threat last season, particularly on slot fades, hauling in 15 of 22 targets for 670 yards and 12(!) touchdowns

+ So good at avoiding being hung up with defenders on the release with the way he can jab one way initially to slow that guy’s feet – In particular, how he can utilize split-releases and then contort his shoulders to go untouched is highly impressive

+ The explosiveness he has allows him to use a little shuffle-step and immediately become an available target as he runs drag routes into the vision of the quarterback

+ Can extend that break-step and drop his weight unlike many receivers below six feet, occasionally flipping corners around on simple slant routes

+ The way he can straighten the stem after releasing inside, slightly lean into the corner and make that sharp transition to get his hips flipped 90 degrees make him highly effective on deep in-breaking routes

+ For a rather lanky build, Thomas is also pretty flexible, to bend around traffic and make subtle adjustments of his routes on the fly

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Ball-tracking, positioning & catching:

+ Turns his head and presents his hands once he’s entered a soft spot in zone coverage

+ Understands when he’s cleared the second level of the coverage vertically or horizontally, so he slows himself from running into the sideline or ancillary defenders

+ Realizes when the defenses loses vision on him down the sideline and he needs to position himself for passes short of the deep level in cloud-coverage

+ His extra gear to run underneath balls and expand the separation he has on guys as the ball in the air really pops for a bigger receiver

+ Yet he also does well to recognize when the ball is underthrown and not notify defenders of that, as he works back to it late at times and makes them run by as he secures the catch

+ Displays tremendous body-control and ability to position himself through contact, leading to a 52.2% contested catch rate over the past two seasons (12 of 23)

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Run after catch & blocking:

+ Once the ball touches Thomas’ hands (such as on hitches), his helmet immediately flips up the field to identify nearby defenders and he’s ready to push off one foot to re-accelerate

+ Capable of dropping his weight and getting by defenders trying to square him up with a little shimmy after catching the ball underneath on spot routes and others

+ And while he may not break a ton of tackles or be as dynamic with the ball as teammate Malik Nabers, he does extend that long frame forward when given the chance for hidden yardage

+ LSU quarterbacks registered a passer rating of 148.8 when targeting Thomas Jr. in 2023 (87 targets)

+ Is regularly able to give his corner an extended stutter at the line and pull him further away from the action on run plays

+ Takes great angles and is able to latch his hands in order sustain challenging blocks out on the perimeter in the screen game

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Weaknesses:

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The rest of the analysis can be found !

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6. Ladd McConkey, Georgia

6’0”, 185 pounds; RS SR

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7. Troy Franklin, Oregon

6’2”, 180 pounds; JR

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8. Keon Coleman, Florida State

6’3”, 215 pounds; JR

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9. Xavier Worthy, Texas

5’11”, 165 pounds; JR

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T.-10. Roman Wilson, Michigan

5’11”, 185 pounds; SR

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T.-10. Ricky Pearsall, Florida

6’1”, 190 pounds; RS SR

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Just missed the cut:

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Xavier Legette, South Carolina

6’1”, 220 pounds; RS SR

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Johnny Wilson, Florida State

6‘6“, 230 pounds; RS JR

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Ja'lynn Polk, Washington

6’1”, 200 pounds; RS JR

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The next names up:

Malachi Corley (Western Kentucky), Jermaine Burton (Alabama), Jacob Cowing (Arizona), Jalen McMillan (Washington), Malik Washington (Virginia), Javon Baker (UCF), Anthony Gould (Oregon State), Jamari Thrash (Louisville), Ainias Smith (Texas A&M), Devontez Walker (North Carolina) & Tahj Washington (USC)

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If you enjoyed this article, please visit & feel free to check out my video on the !

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Twitter: @ halilsfbtalk

Instagram: @ halilsrealfootballtalk

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I've been downvoted a ton for saying the franchise QB doesn't exist in today's NFL. Rich describes this issue as a part of the issue with drafting new QB's pretty good in this video. He talks about the Seahawks Geno/Howell at the 5 min mark.

IMO: the NFL/Players Union need to allow at least QB's back to practice much earlier than whats happening today. Maybe even not allowing a QB to play during the first year after draft and making year 6 the option. If this doesn't change somehow the top 3-4 players in every draft will be QB's and the only way to get there is to intentionally tank, although I think the NFL is getting serious about a lottery. If this happens the only way to get a QB will be with stupid money.