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DISCUSSIONThe Maximum Potential Price of the Basic Attention Token. (self.BATProject)

submitted by CryptoLeonidas

$40 has been bandied about by many BAT optimists here, but is that the maximum price, or just a good-natured meme? Here are some calculations:

  • Let's say that Brave took the place of Alphabet, better known as Google. Assuming that Brave Software International had about 60% of the total browser market share, and that there are 5 billion Internet users in the world, that would equal 3 billion Brave users, which is about 40% of the world population.
  • Assume that due to such a large user base, a focus on privacy and expanding use cases, a desire to remove pretenses of imperialism, etc, BAT becomes a sort of "reserve cryptocurrency" used for international trade, and that such trade amounts to approximately $20 trillion in the near future.
  • Divide that by 1.5 billion BAT, and that is a maximum theoretical price of approximately $13,000 per token based on international trade alone.
  • This does not take into account numerous smaller factors, such as advertising, or factors that are harder to quantify, such as User and Creator Wallet balances. This also does not take into account the possibility that Brave-using governments might want to pay for international goods using legacy currencies anyway in some cases, which could, and probably will, lower the maximum price of BAT.

Even with legacy currencies still in play, $2,000 per BAT does not seem so far-fetched now, does it?

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[–]eggZeppelin 40 points41 points  (4 children)

I've been in the tech industry on the engineering side for almost 15 years.

Amazon was just a dude using a door on saw horses as a desk that sold books online. But he saw a market opportunity. If you can sell books online you can sell anything.

It's all about execution. If you can build and scale the software and you find a niche of product market fit you can get traction. The founder of Brave is from Mozilla and built Firefox in 2002 almost 20 years ago. This dude basically invented the modern browser.

Brave inherits all the value and development that is plowed into the Chromium open source project. They are building a value-add layer onto a tried-and-true battle tested product.

I wouldn't bet against them.

But also don't expect Google and their 40,000 world-class engineers, nearly endless warchest, an army of Product, design and marketing folk and one of the largest collections of user engagement data and AI/machine learning/data analytics muscle to just have their kingdom taken away from them lying down. Google doesn't fuck around when it comes to market share.

[–]Mewoski -1 points0 points  (1 child)

I like this

[–]SirMichaelTortis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I got slightly aroused by his banter.

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

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    [–]Minimum_Effective 40 points41 points  (1 child)

    Assume that due to such a large user base, a focus on privacy and expanding use cases, a desire to remove pretenses of imperialism, etc, BAT becomes a sort of "reserve cryptocurrency" used for international trade, and that such trade amounts to approximately $20 trillion in the near future.

    This is where you jump out of reality. This will never happen in any scenario. BAT could be something of a defacto internet payment coin in some very optimistic scenarios, but "reserve cryptocurrency" is a few bridges too far.

    [–]zimmah 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Well, it's very far fetched, but if we assume Brave can reach 60% of the market share, most people will at least earn some BAT. If so many people have BAT already, it's only a small step for the crypto-economy to gravitate towards BAT.

    From BAT, people can use uniswap or other DEXes to trade for other currencies, but BAT will then be very central because everyone already has at least some small amount of BAT.

    I wouldn't rule out the possibility completely, but I'd say it's a pretty unlikely and very optimistic scenario.

    [–][deleted]  (12 children)

    [deleted]

      [–]Pigl3t 23 points24 points  (8 children)

      I'm with you. I've been following BAT since 2017 and I own what I consider to be a large amount. I love the concept and I think the unit price should go up based on the platform design.

      This latest frenzy of BAT moon talk is killing my buzz because I feel like I'm part of some high schooler investor cult. I genuinely don't think BAT can generate real retail interest/investment when the community sounds like this.

      [–]Minimum_Effective 19 points20 points  (4 children)

      Don't let it kill your buzz. Every crypto project have kids running around with wild fantastical theories. If you can't handle moonboi's, crypto isn't for you.

      I genuinely don't think BAT can generate real retail interest/investment when the community sounds like this.

      If you make you're investment decisions based of what the dumbest people on reddit can come up with, you're going to have a bad time.

      [–]Pigl3t 2 points3 points  (3 children)

      You're completely right. I haven't let it dictate any real decisions yet. I'm going to have to learn to shake out the cringe and carry on.

      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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        [–]ericblair88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        I totaly agree, it's painful stuff to hear, reselling makes be cringe

        [–]Torero17 0 points1 point  (1 child)

        I've held a decent amount since 2017 as well. What do you see as a potential price? I struggle between $2-3 or $10.

        [–]JulesWinnfielddd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        I think if bat can legitimately capture a significant market share for advertising, like 20 to 30 percent 40 dollars isn't out of the question at all.

        [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

        Yup, can’t justify anything over a $10B market cap. Welcome to the Linux of Browsers for Privacy.

        [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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          [–]hericcoleric 27 points28 points  (0 children)

          Very optimistic, but hey, I like your vision😎

          [–]HanditoSupreme 15 points16 points  (5 children)

          Taking on Google would take quite a bit of lobbying power. I like your excitement but that's a strong opener.

          [–]smelwin -1 points0 points  (4 children)

          In what universe is bat going to take on Google? Lol not even close. You do realise that Google controls the play store which is where Android users download the bat browser and that 85% of phones are android and about a tenth of new laptops are Google. Not to mention that bat aims to change the industries of Facebook and that this ecosystem supports other companies like Microsoft.

          Also,and perhaps I shouldn't say this on this sub, the only alternative to ads is paying money. If we want content (free yt videos, free online ed, free Reddit, free blogs etc) we have to have ads that are optimised enough to make money. The ads on bat are not close to that level and there's no way bat is sustainable as an ecosystem.

          Disclaimer: I do own some bat and use the brave browser for the 💰💰. However I'm of the opinion that as evil as they may seem, companies like Google and Facebook are the glue that holds the internet together. Without them we would not have such a brilliant internet.

          Another edit: I do have some bat bc I think there's potential to grow and I'm a fan of the concept especially since the gme story where news companies were spreading misinformation to help the hedge funds. I just don't think it can get that big and its applications are limited as long as it doesn't generate enough money from ads.

          [–]HanditoSupreme 2 points3 points  (3 children)

          Did you mean to reply to the OP m8.

          [–]smelwin 3 points4 points  (2 children)

          Yea pretty much. What started as a quick note to register my agreement with you quickly turned into a full on rant about the browser.

          [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 1 point2 points  (1 child)

          I would be very happy with 1% of his prediction lmao

          [–]smelwin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

          Lol I'd love that.

          [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 15 points16 points  (19 children)

          Thanks for the laugh mate. Sadly you won't be able to retire on the 320 BAT in your rewards wallet...

          Listen im crazy optimistic, and by that I mean a $40 BAT in the 2030's which i consider borderline crazy. But I love brave and have convinced countless people to switch. Its an easy sell.

          [–][deleted]  (14 children)

          [deleted]

            [–]zimmah 2 points3 points  (8 children)

            And BAT actually has an use case, unlike current day bitcoin. And I'm saying that as someone who used to be a big time bitcoin maximalist in 2013~2017

            [–]Gauseka15 0 points1 point  (7 children)

            Out of all other crypto besides brave I’d say bitcoin has the best use case. It’s a store of value like gold

            [–]zimmah 2 points3 points  (6 children)

            No, it has no use case, and the value only comes from the name. People buy bitcoin because it's bitcoin.

            It doesn't even function as a currency anymore, it doesn't adhere to the white paper written by the makers of bitcoin.

            The project has been hijacked by blockstream to push their own agenda, and people just don't know any better because every day there's thousands of newcomers joining that have no idea.

            Once people realize what happened, bitcoin will become obsolete, bitcoin isn't even (the original) bitcoin. It's a scamcoin that stole the name bitcoin.

            [–]ZER0S- 1 point2 points  (3 children)

            BCH is the real bitcoin these days

            [–]zimmah 2 points3 points  (2 children)

            Always has been

            [–]ReverseCaptioningBot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

            Always has been

            this has been an accessibility service from your friendly neighborhood bot

            [–]ZER0S- 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Never heard anything more true

            [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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              [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 1 point2 points  (4 children)

              Since when does more supply = higher value?

              [–]kasselott 2 points3 points  (1 child)

              That’s not what I meant. I just mean that if bitcoin can reach a trillion in market cap so could BAT, one is not fundamentally better than the other, just one of them was released earlier.

              [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Yes and Brave could be considered fundamentally better than any other browser. But that doesn't then gaurantee Brave will be worth what Google is...

              Google could block Brave from playstore tomorrow if they wanted to...

              [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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                [–]liquidswords777 0 points1 point  (3 children)

                Do you still stand by this comment?

                [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 0 points1 point  (2 children)

                I bought more BAT yesterday if that answers your question

                [–]ttaleg 0 points1 point  (1 child)

                did you get more at the crash? i got 300 more at 58, feel like i should get more

                [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                I smoke a lot of weed I don't remember, wanna say it was .68 but who knows.

                I picked up a lil bit of everything after the crash since my portfolio was about 50% BAT 45% AMP and 5% shitcoins

                [–]StatsFirst 4 points5 points  (3 children)

                So make it stack is 100 now. 55 dollars is all I need to spend today for my retirement. Done

                [–]Rapidlysequencing 4 points5 points  (2 children)

                You think 200k is enough for retirement? Fucking lol.

                [–]StatsFirst 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                1.3 million, based on the 13k per token prediction.
                Its not much but its the least I could ask for my 100 bat

                [–]SnapChatPy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                Man enough? He’s getting on my nerves.

                [–]HeyStray 3 points4 points  (2 children)

                Wonder how rich that dude who said he has almost a million bat saved up is gonna be.. sheesh

                [–]CryptoLeonidas[S] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

                Depends on when he decides to sell... I suspect it will be way before the maximum!

                [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

                not if he leaves it in and just collects interest on the coins. Could be making millions just from the collected interest he'd have.

                [–]DwxOpt 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                Crypto is still something new, and anything my friend, anything may happen! I never thought Microsoft would lost his dominant position against a garage company like Google. Never thought an online book store like Amazon would become into a tech giant. But after watching Bitcoin doing what it's doing.... anything is possible!

                Hodl!

                [–]JulesWinnfielddd 3 points4 points  (0 children)

                Imma stop you before I even read your book. Tokenomics in an ecosystem is hard to predict and has so many variables such as token velocity and in flow and outflow. Its all educated guesses at this point and there's no easy way to calculate it. That being said 40$ minimum.

                [–]Axunya 9 points10 points  (3 children)

                $40 is fud.

                [–]CryptoLeonidas[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

                As a short-term goal, not really. As a final price, definitely!

                [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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                  [–]batpede420 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                  If 100% of Google's ad revenue had been buying up a cryptocurrency like BAT, the marketcap would be higher than Bitcoin's by now. Imagine what $50 billion in purchases annually would do to the price and supply of a cryptocurrency over time

                  [–]tastehbacon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                  Shit I'd be happy with like 5 dollars lmfaoo

                  [–]Bill_Salmons 6 points7 points  (3 children)

                  Lol. No. $40 is a meme. It’s not impossible; however, you’d have to make a lot (and I mean a lot!) of assumptions about the future utility of the token.

                  $2000/BAT would be somewhere north of double the current market cap of all crypto. The probability of that happening is about the same as you getting shot by a shark on land. Which is to say it’s unlikely.

                  There are some pretty good formulas for modeling the future value of utility tokens. However, they are not accurate for predictions. Iirc, there’s one in the BAT white paper, if anyone is interested.

                  I will say this, ceteris paribus, once you go above $10/BAT, you are betting on Brave becoming the next major tech company, and an astronomical number of people opted into ads. Go above $20 and you are betting on the tail of a black swan.

                  [–]STUDLYSTUDDERTON 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                  I feel like the fact that we're already at over 99% of tokens in circulation is overlooked a lot. Assuming the same user growth in 10 years time I can see 20$

                  [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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                    [–]freeidiot40x2 1 point2 points  (1 child)

                    Don't mind me, just a crypto newbie, browsing various crypto subs, trying to get the lay of the land:). Off topic, just installed brave as an experiment, fast yes, seems okay. But still seems to suffer from the regular chrome problems (if you close all tabs, the browser closes without any warning). Other than that, seems fine.

                    [–]JacksonHeightsOwn 1 point2 points  (1 child)

                    RemindMe! 10 years

                    [–]Ooozzyy1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    Almost 9 to go!

                    [–]xPierience 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    The $40 was a meme started here after it hit 40¢ a while ago. Nothing to carry

                    [–]djkaffe123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    Lol

                    [–]rld_golf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    Lol. Hell ya.

                    [–]sexysaxmasta 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    kinda says a lot about where we are at when 50% of this thread are taking him seriously lmao

                    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (3 children)

                    Well my 5 BAT would look good at 13000 a piece :)

                    [–]zimmah 1 point2 points  (2 children)

                    I wish, I'd be a multimillionaire.

                    Even with 130 per BAT I'd be pretty well off.

                    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

                    How long have you had brave? I’ve had it for like a month and a half and only have 5 bat :(

                    [–]zimmah 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                    I bought extra bat

                    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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                      [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

                      This is some, “straight from the den of a total dumbass� DD. Tell us when you sell so I can get a quick 50% on coins that might be worth a fuck.

                      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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                              [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                              Mod can you ban posts like this please? I'm so tired of seeing hype price posts like this every day, thinking people are becoming the next Bill Gates with BAT

                              [–]Far-Application3356 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                              Actually it seems very far-fetched still!

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                                [–]yamumsda4 0 points1 point  (0 children)

                                lol