With a loss against the Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons are now mathematically eliminated from 2024 NBA championship contention.

Fade them

I’ll be honest, I don’t watch or know enough about basketball to answer this myself. He can obviously shoot, but will size be a limitation for any NBA future?

How do you think would he work out in todays league?

Maybe it’s just me, but i feel like he would be even better than during his time, assuming he stayed healthy

Cashed on main slate but missed on night slate so break even type of day. Hopefully that is the last no late swap slate in a while but i doubt it. Hope you all had a good night tonight. Tomorrow we get to stack wizards and bulls possibly lol. But a lot of interesting spots on this slate coming up.

If discord is something you are interested in, Will have a link below where i have in-depth content going over each slate, player pools for cash/gpps. cores and much more.

Edit: PP -

Edit: sabonis L 14.5 rebounds. OG anunoby M 19.5 PRA - these are all viable on books to besides AD

Edit: can add OG pts+reb to

Edit: tobais out - love maxey, really really like oubre. lowry small bump, still like paul reed in gpps, batum is fine.

Edit: nance out - love jonas

Edit: Blazers are starting banton. banton is a solid play. scoot out of play for me.

As a wolves fan, I've seen Mike Conley start for us all season and noticed that he has a skillset that isn't particularly common among starting point guards around the league. He creates almost none of his own shots, generates very little rim pressure, and pretty much only scores on 3's at this point. While this would be a huge detriment to a lot of teams, he works pretty well with Gobert and the wolves are one of the only situations around the league where a player like this thrives.

I see Reed Sheppard as very similar to late career mike conley. Elite three point shooting, but probably won't take a defender to the rim off the dribble. Undersized, not much length, but both are still plus defenders. Reed definitely possesses more athleticism, but neither have enough burst or separation to be high level shot creators. So where exactly does he fit as a starting 1? Most teams in the league need a guy there that can create their own shots, get to the rim, and set the defense into motion. I don't see Reed as being a guy that can do that at a high level. The only situations that really make a ton of sense would be with teams that have high level creators at other positions.

I would be interested to hear anyone else's thoughts on where he could be a starter in the league, and if anyone believes his skillset is being misrepresented in my analysis, I'd be willing to hear that out too.

So Ive been seeing these teams, fringe lotto teams ( LAL, GSW, ATL, CHI) out of these 4, which one do you think is the one that can be salvageable and why?

(dont worry, im not gonna post this on all the teams subs.)

Based on their play thus far and their narratives/ roles played in their teams' records/ games played...

Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Edwards, Stephen Curry, Jalen Brunson, Domantas Sabonis, Devin Booker (note - can only miss 2 more games), and at least one of but potentially both of LeBron James/Anthony Davis...

...will almost definitely get voted in assuming they reach the 65-game threshold, IMO.

For the remaining 1-3 All-NBA spots, in no particular order, I'll list a couple of players and the cases FOR and AGAINST them making an All-NBA team.

Reminder: All-NBA teams are positionless now and require 65 games played.

Basic stats are taken from Basketball Reference. Lineup stats are taken from .

Impact metrics used: (DARKO), , . These were the top 3 publicly-available stats ranked by NBA executives/analytics staff per .

Jaylen Brown

Case FOR: Jaylen's putting up good numbers on an amazing team (23/6/4 on +0.2rTS% with good defense; 26th in DPM/ 34th in EPM/ 51st in LEBRON). Boston lapping the league in team record and net rating means they'll likely get 2 All-NBA candidates and Brown's probably the 2nd biggest contributor to that plus he's likely more familiar to voters vs KP/White (Porzingis is already ineligible regardless because of games played).

Case AGAINST: Boston's stacked top 6. Boston have a ludicrous +16.0 net rating with Jaylen OFF the court, which almost doesn't make any sense.

Paul George

Case FOR: Top 15ish player, with good numbers and great defense as the clear 2nd best player on a contender (22/5/4 on +2.0rTS%; 9th in DPM/ 10th in EPM/ 27th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: His scoring game has been slightly lower volume/ less consistent than his contemporaries, which means voters may not have realised what an impactful overall season he's been having.

Tyrese Haliburton

Case FOR: Top 15ish player when fully healthy, great numbers on a good team (21/4/11 on +2.8rTS%; 36th in DPM/ 9th in EPM/ 7th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: Has clearly declined since returning from injury (16/4/10 on 56TS% vs 24/4/13 on 63TS% pre-injury) and in his reduced state, the fit with new post-trade-deadline co-star Pascal Siakam has been uneven (Indiana have had a -3.3 net rating when they've shared the floor thus far). His first 33 games were amazing enough that I think he still may make it if he hits the games played requirement (he can only miss 1-2 more games IIRC).

De'Aaron Fox

Case FOR: Top 2 player on a good team putting up decent numbers (27/4/6 on -1.1rTS%; 28th in DPM/ 20th in EPM/ 28th in LEBRON). Lineup data hints that the Kings' success may correlate more heavily with Fox's presence than Sabonis' despite Fox's relative inefficiency/inconsistency (Kings' net rating with Fox plus Sabonis = +3.9, Fox minus Sabonis = +0.2 net rating, Sabonis minus Fox = -5.5 net rating).

Case AGAINST: Inconsistent and inefficient scoring/'effort' the past few months have tanked his narrative juice, resulting in most of the credit for the Kings' record to be transferred to his consistent, efficient, triple-double aficionado teammate Domantas Sabonis. Kings are also flirting with the play-in, so questions might arise if they necessarily "deserve" 2 All-NBA players.

#Jamal Murray (eliminated from All-NBA contention - games played)

Case FOR: Likely a top 20 player when taking playoffs into account. 2nd best player on a top 2 seed, putting up decent numbers (21/4/7 on +0.0rTS%; 24th in DPM/ 41st in EPM/ 56th in LEBRON). Jamal-plus-Jokic lineups are some of the best in the league (+14.5 net rating), while Jokic-minus-Jamal lineups are still great but not invincible (+7.5).

Case AGAINST: Inconsistent offensive output, plus lower scoring volume on average than some of his competitors. Jamal-minus-Jokic lineups have a -13.4 net rating.

Zion Williamson

Case FOR: Top 2 player on a top 5 seed, putting up decent numbers (23/6/5 on +3.6rTS%; 74th in DPM/ 59th in EPM/ 169th in LEBRON) with improved defense. Has been ramping up lately too - 31/7/4 on 68TS% his last 3 games. Pels have a +2.0 net rating with Zion on the court and +1.3 with Zion minus Ingram.

Case AGAINST: Pels have a +8.4 net rating with Zion off the court. Hasn't really had the narrative juice in his favour this season (wasn't voted as an All-Star) though a strong finish to the season could quickly change that.

Tyrese Maxey

Case FOR: 2nd best player on a team which is a contender when fully healthy, putting up decent numbers (26/4/6 on -0.5rTS%; 59th in DPM/ 33rd in EPM/ 19th in LEBRON). Maxey-plus-Embiid lineups have been fantastic (+10.3 net rating), Embiid-minus-Maxey lineups have been good but not elite (+2.3 net rating), Maxey-minus-Embiid lineups are roughly neutral (-1.1 net rating). Maxey's scoring actually without Embiid on the court - 20.5 -> 29.5 points per 75 on roughly similar efficiency.

Case AGAINST: The Sixers are "only" the 8th seed atm and have gone 10-22 without Embiid. Although, as a Sixers fan I can attest that Maxey's by far the biggest reason most of these games have been even somewhat competitive -- the team's constantly missing important players for various reasons (especially starter Melton who has been out for months), 2 other starters Tobias/Batum have turned into pumpkins without Embiid, starter-by-necessity Oubre has been solid but inefficient without Embiid, our main big man in JoJo's absence "Bball" Paul Reed has been mostly good but sometimes overtasked playing heavy minutes, Mo Bamba probably shouldn't be playing in the NBA, new acquisitions Buddy/ Lowry/ Payne have been decent but nothing special, etc..

Victor Wembanyama

Case FOR: Probably already a top 20 player as a rookie, DPOY candidate, putting up decent numbers on a horrible team (21/10/3 with 1.3stl/3.4blks on -1.6rTS%; 8th in DPM/ 23rd in EPM/ 29th in LEBRON). Spurs are only regular-bad (-4.5 net rating) with Victor on the court - sporting an actually robust 71st percentile defense - while they're historically bad (-11.1 net rating) when Victor sits.

Case AGAINST: Plays on a horrible team. Took a while to get going, relatively weak first half of the season paired with a monster 2nd half. Voters may apply the rookie tax to him, whether unfairly or not.

Bam Adebayo

Case FOR: Top 20ish player, top 2 player on a solid team, likely DPOY candidate, decent numbers (20/10/4 with 1.1stl/1.0blks on -1.6rTS%; 56th in DPM/ 70th in EPM/ 40th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: Most inefficient season of his career. Miami are roughly neutral (-0.4 net rating) when he's on the floor and plain bad (-3.9) when he's on the floor without Jimmy.

Paolo Banchero

Case FOR: Best player on a top 5 seed putting up decent numbers (23/7/5 on -3.1rTS%; 154th in DPM/ 109th in EPM/ 75th in LEBRON). Magic are about neutral with Paolo on the court (-0.5 net rating) which is honestly impressive given how many injuries and rotating supporting cast members they've had.

Case AGAINST: The least efficient among the players in this group, and probably a level below as a passer compared to some of his fellow offensive centerpieces. Magic have a +7.5 net rating in almost 2000 possessions with Paolo off the court.

Rudy Gobert

Case FOR: DPOY favourite, easily the best defender on by far the best defense in the league and arguably the 2nd most important player on a top 3 seed in the West, limited but useful offensive contributions (14/13/1 w 2.1 blks on +8.6rTS%; 23rd in DPM/ 42nd in EPM/ 23rd in LEBRON). 2nd highest on/off on the team among high minutes players (+5.3) after Ant (+9.4). Wolves are amazing when Ant and Gobert share the court without KAT (+14.0); they barely tread water when Gobert is on the floor without Ant/KAT (-1.5 net rating); while Ant minus KAT/Gobert lineups get real ugly real quick (-8.5 net rating).

Case AGAINST: Scoring efficiency has regressed slightly from his Jazz days, probably a below-average offensive player.

It's a common surgery for when an elbow gets inflamed due to over usage. Has there been an NBA player who had to take a Tommy John surgery?

Had the Miami Heat lost in the play-in in 2023. They would’ve became the first division winner to miss the playoffs. Prior to 2016 the NBA had a rule which stated if you won your division, you got a top 4/top 3 seed regardless of record. I believe it was changed after the Spurs Clippers first round series. IMO it shouldn’t have been changed at all. It makes winning your division actually mean something. At least give em a top 6 seed to avoid the play in entirely.

edit: currently Minnesota and OKC are going back-and-forth for the first seed. Imagine Minnesota gets the first seat and bumps OKC to fourth. If I was OKC fan, I’d be mad as hell.

Let me know what y’all think? Personally if I was the commish id bring this rule back today

Over the past several months, I've been creating mini-profiles and doing deep research on the careers of several NBA legends, in chronological order. I have recently covered every pre-merger player I believe had what I'd consider an "elite" career () and that motivated me to share my rankings of the guys pre-merger I consider to be the best.

Things to Consider

• My primary criteria for rankings is as follows - Playoff Performance, Regular Season Performance, Offensive Value, Defensive Value - in that order. If a comparison is incredibly close, I'll lean towards some intangible qualities.

  • I do not consider accolades for these rankings, as they can be incredibly situational and context-less. This is purely who I think were the most valuable players / careers indivdually.

• This list only includes pure pre-merger players. If they played a lick of basketball in the '77 season or later, I'm excluding them. I understand that some players hardly played any post-merger ball (Thurmond, Havlicek, etc.), but I'm doing it this way to avoid complications with excluding some seasons and including others - evaluating a player like Bob Lanier could be difficult otherwise, as his pre-merger and post-merger careers couldn't be more different.

• This is an NBA-only ranking. Play in other leagues such as the NBL, ABA, and ABL is not considered here. I do consider the BAA personally, although I understand many here do not.

• I rank relative to era, meaning how good a player was against their competition. I feel as if most of this subreddit ranks this way regardless, but I did want to issue that disclaimer to avoid questions on era translation, cross-era portability, etc.

Honorable Mentions (and reasoning for falling short)

• Max Zaslofsky

  • Excellent peak, albeit one in the rather questionable BAA. He was also one-dimensional offensively and lacks defensive information.

• Dave DeBusschere

  • One of the greatest ceiling raisers in NBA history, but his individual value falls short to that of the inclusions. He was a bit of a beneficiary of a stacked New York infrastructure that maximized his defense and hid his offensive weaknesses. I do want to give him some leeway for tolerating an incompetent Pistons organization, though.

• Harry Gallatin

  • Elite defender and notable playoff contributor - leading three consecutive Finals runs - but had a somewhat short-lived prime that often overlapped with that of teammate Carl Braun.

• Walt Bellamy

  • Incredibly dominant prime individually, but it is somewhat neutralized by a lack of success within that timeframe. His other tenures - namely New York and Atlanta - had their fair share of success, but he was not the same superstar-level force.

• Billy Cunningham

  • A strong lack of longevity and playoff consistency dampens what was otherwise a very well-rounded force at his best.

Top 20

• 20 / Jim Pollard

  • The first of a long lineage of dynastic 2nd/3rd options, setting the tone for later greats such as James Worthy, Tony Parker, etc. He was a phenomenal all-around defender, but not a great scorer, consistently deep below league efficiency.

  • An underrated quality of his game was his playmaking. He was often an offensive orchestrator for Minneapolis alongside Slater Martin, and I'd argue his athleticism and scoring threat made him the better one. For this reason, he can perhaps be considered the original point forward (although his game resembled that of a guard more at times).

• 19 / Bobby Wanzer

  • Advanced stats unsurprisingly love Wanzer, who was an efficient shooting guard with a complete statline. He wasn't Rochester's leader as they imply, but he was a phenomenal off-ball threat with defensive upside and reliability in the playoffs. His regular season-to-playoff translation is as follows - 12.8/4.8/3.4 on 49% TS to 14.6/5.8/3.5 on 54% TS.

• 18 / Carl Braun

  • Braun is a strange one because his missed time to military duty both limited - and exposed - his career value. The Knicks notoriously made two Finals in spite of his absence, and his play wasn't exactly groundbreaking in his '53 run with the squad.

  • However, he was quite comfortably the best all-around player the Knicks franchise had pre-Willis Reed. He was a versatile scorer with excellent rim finishing and shooting, only limited by a lack of a consistent handle. His length and quickness also made him a phenomenal defender with switchability and unsung shot-blocking value.

• 17 / Cliff Hagan

  • Hagan was one of the NBA's greatest playoff elevators, improving his regular season PPG by 4.1 during his 5-year postseason prime ('57 to '61 - 19.5 PPG to 23.6 PPG*)*. He also led the entire league in playoff scoring twice. He was firmly St. Louis' 2nd option in the regular season, but that role ascended to more of a 1B in the playoffs.

• 16 / George Yardley

  • Yardley is probably my pick for the most underrated pre-merger player - he was the best player on consecutive Finals teams and possessed a blatant offensive impact. Detroit and Syracuse's relative offensive ratings within his career were as follows...

    • '53 Pistons (year before Yardley joined): -0.4, 6/10

    • '54 Pistons (Yardley's rookie season): 1.5, 3/9

    • '58 Pistons (Yardley's final full year): -0.1, 5/8

    • '59 Pistons (Yardley gets traded): -1.8, 6/8

    • '58 Nationals (year before Yardley joined): 1.1, 2/8

    • '59 Nationals (Yardley joins via trade): 2.3, 3/8

  • He was also an excellent playoff performer and quality two-way player. His shot creation was incredibly complete for the era and he possessed some subtle defensive value (the film was limited, but he clearly used his length and athleticism to his advantage on defensive possessions).

• 15 / Hal Greer

  • Greer was a bit of an oxymoron - he was one of the most steadily consistent players of the 60's (being a premier SG every season), but also incredibly streaky in his performances year-to-year. For every great Greer playoff run, you could also cite one equally as awful. His defense was similar, with his pickpocketing pressure otherwise diluted by mismatch issues and inconsistent discipline.

  • However, there aren't many pre-merger players as consistently good at their position as Greer, and his '67 championship run was one for the books.

• 14 / Sam Jones

  • Jones was about the best Bill Russell sidekick you could possibly generate. Clutch, disciplined, energetic off-ball, and well-conditioned. His level of shot-making off-ball cannot be understated, and his two-man game with Russell is probably the earliest version of the dribble hand-off we know of.

  • He was also an unsung defensive great, with excellent fundamentals, the right level of physicality, and a willingness to switch. I would consider him a top five defensive guard of the 60's.

• 13 / Bob Davies

  • Davies was the de-facto leader of a really good period for Royals basketball, including six straight records above .600, a couple historic offenses, and a championship run. His offense was multi-faceted and irreplaceable, and he was a high-effort defender with especially good off-ball defense.

  • However, he was an awful playoff performer with dips in impact nearly every year - the championship run is the sole exception, which saves face for his postseason legacy a good bit.

• 12 / Lenny Wilkens

  • Lenny's timing was a bit unfortunate in this league. He joined St. Louis on the tail-end of their prime contention window, peaked as colleagues Bob Pettit and Cliff Hagan were wrapping things up, and employed a sort of primitive playstyle (that set shot!) amidst the offensive revolution of the 60's-70's.

  • To pile on that bad luck even more, he played seven straight seasons for undeveloped, expansion-fresh franchises (Seattle, Cleveland and Portland) and failed to make the post-season with any of them - this includes a playoff snub in '72 where the SuperSonics won 47 games but missed out due to divisional rules.

  • However, his playoff performances, two-way effectiveness and phenomenal '68 peak are too great to deny.

• 11 / Willis Reed

  • Reed is a painful what-if, likely known for leading a dynasty if not for career-wrecking knee issues. The Knicks won two championships in three seasons despite his wilting health, and may have won a third in '72 if Reed wasn't out of the playoff picture.

  • His floor spacing was revolutionary, with his mid-range almost being more effective than his post game. He was also a good passer despite his low-volume, and everything you could ask for in a tenacious, center-of-gravity-strong man defender during an era of gigantic finesse bigs (namely Wilt Chamberlain).

• 10 / Paul Arizin

  • Arizin is another career slightly hindered by military duty, although he still accomplished far more than the aforementioned Carl Braun.

  • The forward peaked high and early, and his '56 championship run was an underrated carryjob - although he was complemented by superstar Neil Johnston, the latter was an absolute no-show in the Finals (13/11/3 on 40% TS). Meanwhile, Arizin dropped a healthy 27/8/2 amidst a duel with contemporary George Yardley.

• 9 / Dolph Schayes

  • Schayes maybe has the biggest disparity between success and individual dominance in NBA history - his production pales in comparison to that of other 50's superstars, but he consistently performed year-round more than almost all of them.

  • He can perhaps be considered a hyper-charged swiss army knife - versatile shot creation, elite rebounding, good passing and solid man defense. He never had to reach gaudy numbers for Syracuse to win, and maybe that was good enough for those balanced rosters.

• 8 / Bob Cousy

  • Cousy's status as the consummate 50's stereotype causes his legacy to go overlooked at times. He was a high-peaking superstar with historically good offensive impact, and delivered in the postseason on a relatively consistent basis.

  • Although his offense leaves more to be desired scoring-wise - as his shot selection and mechanics were truly deplorable - his playmaking more than makes up for that. He was also a bit of a ball-hawker and physical liability defensively, but could be covered for during Boston's dynasty era.

• 7 / Bob Pettit

  • Pettit's dominance doesn't need much explanation - while the Hawks took some time to ramp up to great records under his lead, he had them in a Finals Game 7 by his third season. He was very much postseason-solid during that peak window for St. Louis, although he does lack bulk in great playoff runs compared to others of his caliber.

  • His offense was pretty much perfect for the role, thriving as a play finisher with still-solid court vision. His defensive value was pretty much limited to post defense, but that isn't too bad for the interior-oriented era he played in.

• 6 / Elgin Baylor

  • I do have some qualms with Baylor fundamentally, mostly concerning his limited scoring ability despite high-volume. His reliance on slashing rendered him inconsistent against elite defenses such as Boston or New York, and he didn't generate foul shots nearly as much as a player of his style should have.

  • However, his raw two-way dominance is hardly contested among these names, and he has had some glorious prime years leading the Lakers. It's unfortunate his injuries killed his conditioning, as he went from a playoff elite to dropper post-'66.

• 5 / Oscar Robertson

  • Oscar was the first heliocentric superstar, and the results were far from surprising. He only won two playoff series with the Royals despite their consistently game-changing offenses, and being the target of defenses led to his statistical decline in the playoffs.

  • However, I don't entirely blame Oscar either - the 60's Celtics are the hardest possible championship roadblock a player could face, and the Cincinnati front office did very little to address their issues of poor interior defense and rebounding.

  • I also want to point out that Robertson's defense was silently great, and he was a noticeably phenomenal help defender.

• 4 / George Mikan

  • Mikan's peak is hardly matched in a vacuum - how many players can you name that were the best in the league for 6 seasons and led a dynasty in the process?

  • A lack of volume in great seasons is all he really lacks to those above, as he was rather flawless otherwise. Dominant on both ends, historically good defensively, and a good playoff performer. The only big red flag besides longevity I can find is his offensive decline post-rule changes, but going from an unstoppable scorer to very good one isn't the end of the world.

• 3 / Jerry West

  • West remains chronically misunderstood by those without knowledge of his era's context - his pitiful Finals record does little justice to his status as an elite playoff elevator who was often held back by his supporting casts. Baylor was good albeit inconsistent; Wilt had some sickening playoff lows; and Los Angeles lacked a great big man to compete with Bill Russell for most of their Finals runs.

  • I will say that West's biggest flaw is a lack of M.V.P.-level regular seasons, as he often split his impact with Baylor or missed too much time to injury. His playoff explosions more than overshadow that, though.

• 2 / Wilt Chamberlain

  • Chamberlain is understandably polarizing, but this is the easiest placement I could possibly give. He is the greatest two-way player on this list and a generational regular season impact player, but has an obvious rival edging him out.

  • His playoff legacy is a bit tough to evaluate - he was an offensive dropper, but also elevated defensively and took the greatest defensive dynasty ever to several close series. I'd say outside of '62 (lightly), '66, '68 and '69, I'm not too critical of Chamberlain's playoff resume.

• 1 / Bill Russell

  • Russell's status as this list's number-one guy is a pretty clear-cut decision. His playoff elevation, regular season impact, and defensive dominance are unmatched by his peers. His offense can be criticized, but he was an efficient shot creator (5 FG+) and elite playmaking big.

  • It is also worth considering that Russell's presence as a defensive stalwart came during one of the few eras in NBA history where defensive impact was more important than offense. This renders his peak value as comparable to that of later G.O.A.T. candidates.

Definitely a lengthy write-up here, but I appreciate anybody that took the time to read it all! Please let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Victor Wembanyama joins Raef LaFrentz as the only players in NBA history to tally 200 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season. Wembanyama continues to break records.

Source:

Here are the top 3 most upvoted posts every day over this past week in 2014:

March 10, 2014:

March 11, 2014:

March 12, 2014:

March 13, 2014:

1. .

3. .

March 14, 2014:

1. .

March 15, 2014:

March 16, 2014:

Based on their play thus far and their narratives/ roles played in their teams' records/ games played...

Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Edwards, Stephen Curry, Jalen Brunson, Domantas Sabonis, Devin Booker (note - can only miss 2 more games), and at least one of but potentially both of LeBron James/Anthony Davis...

...will almost definitely get voted in assuming they reach the 65-game threshold, IMO.

For the remaining 1-3 All-NBA spots, in no particular order, I'll list a couple of players and the cases FOR and AGAINST them making an All-NBA team.

Reminder: All-NBA teams are positionless now and require 65 games played.

Basic stats are taken from Basketball Reference. Lineup stats are taken from .

Impact metrics used: (DARKO), , . These were the top 3 publicly-available stats ranked by NBA executives/analytics staff per .

Jaylen Brown

Case FOR: Jaylen's putting up good numbers on an amazing team (23/6/4 on +0.2rTS% with good defense; 26th in DPM/ 34th in EPM/ 51st in LEBRON). Boston lapping the league in team record and net rating means they'll likely get 2 All-NBA candidates and Brown's probably the 2nd biggest contributor to that plus he's likely more familiar to voters vs KP/White (Porzingis is already ineligible regardless because of games played).

Case AGAINST: Boston's stacked top 6. Boston have a ludicrous +16.0 net rating with Jaylen OFF the court, which almost doesn't make any sense.

Paul George

Case FOR: Top 15ish player, with good numbers and great defense as the clear 2nd best player on a contender (22/5/4 on +2.0rTS%; 9th in DPM/ 10th in EPM/ 27th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: His scoring game has been slightly lower volume/ less consistent than his contemporaries, which means voters may not have realised what an impactful overall season he's been having.

Tyrese Haliburton

Case FOR: Top 15ish player when fully healthy, great numbers on a good team (21/4/11 on +2.8rTS%; 36th in DPM/ 9th in EPM/ 7th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: Has clearly declined since returning from injury (16/4/10 on 56TS% vs 24/4/13 on 63TS% pre-injury) and in his reduced state, the fit with new post-trade-deadline co-star Pascal Siakam has been uneven (Indiana have had a -3.3 net rating when they've shared the floor thus far). His first 33 games were amazing enough that I think he still may make it if he hits the games played requirement (he can only miss 1-2 more games IIRC).

De'Aaron Fox

Case FOR: Top 2 player on a good team putting up decent numbers (27/4/6 on -1.1rTS%; 28th in DPM/ 20th in EPM/ 28th in LEBRON). Lineup data hints that the Kings' success may correlate more heavily with Fox's presence than Sabonis' despite Fox's relative inefficiency/inconsistency (Kings' net rating with Fox plus Sabonis = +3.9, Fox minus Sabonis = +0.2 net rating, Sabonis minus Fox = -5.5 net rating).

Case AGAINST: Inconsistent and inefficient scoring/'effort' the past few months have tanked his narrative juice, resulting in most of the credit for the Kings' record to be transferred to his consistent, efficient, triple-double aficionado teammate Domantas Sabonis. Kings are also flirting with the play-in, so questions might arise if they necessarily "deserve" 2 All-NBA players.

#Jamal Murray (eliminated from All-NBA contention - games played)

Case FOR: Likely a top 20 player when taking playoffs into account. 2nd best player on a top 2 seed, putting up decent numbers (21/4/7 on +0.0rTS%; 24th in DPM/ 41st in EPM/ 56th in LEBRON). Jamal-plus-Jokic lineups are some of the best in the league (+14.5 net rating), while Jokic-minus-Jamal lineups are still great but not invincible (+7.5).

Case AGAINST: Inconsistent offensive output, plus lower scoring volume on average than some of his competitors. Jamal-minus-Jokic lineups have a -13.4 net rating.

Zion Williamson

Case FOR: Top 2 player on a top 5 seed, putting up decent numbers (23/6/5 on +3.6rTS%; 74th in DPM/ 59th in EPM/ 169th in LEBRON) with improved defense. Has been ramping up lately too - 31/7/4 on 68TS% his last 3 games. Pels have a +2.0 net rating with Zion on the court and +1.3 with Zion minus Ingram.

Case AGAINST: Pels have a +8.4 net rating with Zion off the court. Hasn't really had the narrative juice in his favour this season (wasn't voted as an All-Star) though a strong finish to the season could quickly change that.

Tyrese Maxey

Case FOR: 2nd best player on a team which is a contender when fully healthy, putting up decent numbers (26/4/6 on -0.5rTS%; 59th in DPM/ 33rd in EPM/ 19th in LEBRON). Maxey-plus-Embiid lineups have been fantastic (+10.3 net rating), Embiid-minus-Maxey lineups have been good but not elite (+2.3 net rating), Maxey-minus-Embiid lineups are roughly neutral (-1.1 net rating). Maxey's scoring actually without Embiid on the court - 20.5 -> 29.5 points per 75 on roughly similar efficiency.

Case AGAINST: The Sixers are "only" the 8th seed atm and have gone 10-22 without Embiid. Although, as a Sixers fan I can attest that Maxey's by far the biggest reason most of these games have been even somewhat competitive -- the team's constantly missing important players for various reasons (especially starter Melton who has been out for months), 2 other starters Tobias/Batum have turned into pumpkins without Embiid, starter-by-necessity Oubre has been solid but inefficient without Embiid, our main big man in JoJo's absence "Bball" Paul Reed has been mostly good but sometimes overtasked playing heavy minutes, Mo Bamba probably shouldn't be playing in the NBA, new acquisitions Buddy/ Lowry/ Payne have been decent but nothing special, etc..

Victor Wembanyama

Case FOR: Probably already a top 20 player as a rookie, DPOY candidate, putting up decent numbers on a horrible team (21/10/3 with 1.3stl/3.4blks on -1.6rTS%; 8th in DPM/ 23rd in EPM/ 29th in LEBRON). Spurs are only regular-bad (-4.5 net rating) with Victor on the court - sporting an actually robust 71st percentile defense - while they're historically bad (-11.1 net rating) when Victor sits.

Case AGAINST: Plays on a horrible team. Took a while to get going, relatively weak first half of the season paired with a monster 2nd half. Voters may apply the rookie tax to him, whether unfairly or not.

Bam Adebayo

Case FOR: Top 20ish player, top 2 player on a solid team, likely DPOY candidate, decent numbers (20/10/4 with 1.1stl/1.0blks on -1.6rTS%; 56th in DPM/ 70th in EPM/ 40th in LEBRON).

Case AGAINST: Most inefficient season of his career. Miami are roughly neutral (-0.4 net rating) when he's on the floor and plain bad (-3.9) when he's on the floor without Jimmy.

Paolo Banchero

Case FOR: Best player on a top 5 seed putting up decent numbers (23/7/5 on -3.1rTS%; 154th in DPM/ 109th in EPM/ 75th in LEBRON). Magic are about neutral with Paolo on the court (-0.5 net rating) which is honestly impressive given how many injuries and rotating supporting cast members they've had.

Case AGAINST: The least efficient among the players in this group, and probably a level below as a passer compared to some of his fellow offensive centerpieces. Magic have a +7.5 net rating in almost 2000 possessions with Paolo off the court.

Rudy Gobert

Case FOR: DPOY favourite, easily the best defender on by far the best defense in the league and arguably the 2nd most important player on a top 3 seed in the West, limited but useful offensive contributions (14/13/1 w 2.1 blks on +8.6rTS%; 23rd in DPM/ 42nd in EPM/ 23rd in LEBRON). 2nd highest on/off on the team among high minutes players (+5.3) after Ant (+9.4). Wolves are amazing when Ant and Gobert share the court without KAT (+14.0); they barely tread water when Gobert is on the floor without Ant/KAT (-1.5 net rating); while Ant minus KAT/Gobert lineups get real ugly real quick (-8.5 net rating).

Case AGAINST: Scoring efficiency has regressed slightly from his Jazz days, probably a below-average offensive player.

While the pre-lottery bottom 4 have little reason to trade out of this draft, someone always jumps and someone always drops in the NBA draft with few exceptions, and there's a few teams who are/could be in the mix to ship out the pick/draft rights. Notable amongst teams who might consider trading their lottery pick if it ends up in the Top 4 or as is (if available)...

Non-Playoff Teams for the 2023/24 Season

• The Memphis Grizzlies are tied for the 6th odds pre-lottery and are aiming to contend with Ja (presumably) coming back healthy and (presumably) avoiding another lengthy suspension, with a notable hole at the 5 in need of filling.

• Like the Warriors pick, the Toronto Raptors' is protected while owned by another team, this time being the Spurs and with slightly better protections at Top 6; they remain tied with the Grizzlies but it's notable Toronto originally traded out of this draft due to its perceived weakness in order to acquire Jakob Poeltl.

Play-In Teams for the 2023/24 Season

• The Los Angeles Lakers* are...a weird name to mention since they technically don't own their first unless the Pelicans defer the owing of a pick to 2025. That said, New Orleans are already in a bit of a cap crunch with potential extensions on the way for several of their roleplayers so a potential lottery pick in a weak draft might not seem appealing given the Lakers limited means of improving themselves and the possibility of a higher pick in 2025 may lead them to preferring deferring the Lakers pick. It's unprotected either way and LeBron could leave in the summer to play with Bronny (assuming Bronny does declare and get drafted to a team LeBron would want to potentially retire on instead of Los Angeles).

• The Philadelphia 76ers/Miami Heat/Dallas Mavericks/Phoenix Suns/Golden State Warriors (Suns pick would be swapped between the Grizzlies and/or Wizards depending on the overall order of their picks in the Top 4 if it ended up in that range) on the other hand all have their own respective windows for contending and reasons for not wanting to keep a Top 4 pick in the unlikely chance they somehow land it. And to be clear, it is highly unlikely the losers of the play-in will get a Top 4 pick, let alone 1st overall

  • Of these, it is worth noting the Warriors' pick is technically owned by the Blazers but it's Top 4 protected (currently they have about a 5% chance of a Top 4 pick) and it's known they tried to trade Moses Moody at this year's draft. Perhaps they'll try to move him and their pick if they somehow luck (unluckily?) in to retaining it?

• The Chicago Bulls...should not trade their pick to maintain the mid and with their overall lack of trades over the past few years the odds of this might seem unlikely. That said...it's the Chicago Bulls, most of their decision-making since Lonzo Ball went down has been baffling.

The Only Playoff Team in the 2023/24 Season

• New Orleans Pelicans, as mentioned before, have the Lakers 1st this year and they have financial incentive to not take on what would likely end up being an expensive rookie on a team already full of depth; they're already in a position where they may need to make difficult decisions on who to keep, extend, and so on as they traded away Kira Lewis Jr. to shed salary. Whether they'd want to package this pick right now or in 2025 when they have a better asset is an open question as, like the Grizzlies, New Orleans may be looking for a new starting center with the aging Jonas Valančiūnas being their most notable pending UFA this upcoming offseason.

Ignoring salary matching or that some of these teams have obligations pick-wise that may make it tricky to make a move on draft night i.e. they would trade them in the summer to circumvent said rules, what is the worst player that any one of the above teams should/would give up the 1st overall pick for?

How about the 2nd overall pick?

3rd or 4th?

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