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What lies ahead for the economy and business, and how can we recover from the inflation shock.

Full coverage here.

Dimon on risk, ‘nerve-wracking’ US election

Markets and central banks appear certain a soft landing is coming, but Jamie Dimon is more cautious. He sees a world of risk, including from a US election he believes will be a “circus”.

Peter Dutton at the AFR Business Summit

Dutton supports Albanese on four-year terms

Peter Dutton said he was prepared to discuss with the prime minister the introduction of four-year terms for federal parliament.

Iron ore dropped near 7pc in Singapore trading on Monday.

ASX rises, Southern Cross Gold leaps 21pc

Shares gain; Philip Lowe joins Future Generation board; WAM and QV Equities merge; Adairs chairman exits; Air NZ pauses Chicago route; Iron ore tumbles. Bitcoin tops $US72,000. Follow updates here.

Putin sacks navy chief for humiliating Black Sea losses

The Russian president has fired Nikolai Evmenov, replacing him with the commander of the Northern Fleet.

Cost of living ‘top of mind’ for Coles: Weckert

Coles chief executive Leah Weckert says supermarkets are facing more scrutiny because of the greater regularity with which customers confront price rises. Follow updates here.

Philip Lowe lands gig in funds management

The former RBA governor will succeed ex-NSW premier Mike Baird as chairman of Geoff Wilson’s Future Generation Australia charitable investment vehicle.

Healius brings in UBS as it reviews strategy, considers asset sales

The company replaced its chief executive, Maxine Jacquet, earlier this month after just 12 months. It runs some 2000 pathology centres and 100 laboratories.

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AFR BUSINESS SUMMIT

Treasurer Jim Chalmers at the Summit.

Chalmers admits growth ambitions are too low

Business leaders welcomed the treasurer’s pitch to embrace what could be a “defining decade” but questioned government policies to fix weak productivity growth.

Sydney Airport CEO Geoff Culbert is stepping down after more than five years.

Australia trapped in a ‘jail of short-term thinking’

New Business Council president Geoff Culbert says three-year government terms contribute to a crisis of short-term thinking that is dragging down the nation.

Fortescue says hydrogen hopes rest on a halving of power prices

Fortescue Energy boss Mark Hutchinson says Australia must get clean power prices down to $US30 a megawatt hour if it wants green hydrogen projects to go ahead.

Why Shemara Wikramanayake is bullish (and you should be too)

Australia has the natural advantages and economic backdrop to outrun tepid growth forecasts, but top CEOs say we must make the right decisions and the right investments. Here’s how to do it.

HESTA pushes for climate-friendly directors at Woodside

The industry super giant is the first to move on what Paul Keating says will be a trend of funds using market power to seek influence on issues like energy transition.

Tuesday Tech

The Loom co-founders pose with their app outside Atlassian’s offices in central Sydney.

Joe and Vinay got a $1.5b Atlassian exit. They have lessons for founders

When Loom’s CEO first met Atlassian’s Scott Farquhar he wasn’t interested in selling, but four years later Atlassian bought his company at a $790m discount to it’s 2021 valuation.

Google in negotiations to strike new media deals

Unlike at Facebook, Melanie Silva says Google is renegotiating deals to pay local news companies, but pushed back on paying for content used to train AI models.

Dovetail’s Benjamin Humphrey says staff turnover at the company is normal and healthy.

Senior staff exodus as high-value Sydney start-up struggles to scale

Dovetail, one of Australia’s most richly backed start-ups has suffered an exodus of crucial senior staff, as it struggles to keep customers and grow.

Melbourne entrepreneurs’ $30m payday in Singapore buyout

The deal for 100 per cent of the shares in privately held Trade Indy closed last week, and all of its 28 full-time staff will move across to Singapore’s Sqreem.

How to choose which MacBook Air to buy

There’s no question the new MacBook Air is the best laptop on the market for most people. The only question is, which size? Our tests reveal the answer.

Features include the ability to save articles, dark mode and real time notifications.

Get the latest business news on the go with the AFR’s new iOS app.

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Companies

Cettire, an online luxury fashion retail platform, has divided investors since listing on the ASX in December 2020.

Cettire defends CEO’s $127m share sale ahead of stock slump

Dean Mintz offloaded the stake in the luxury retailer after questions were raised about the company’s customs duties. He remains the largest shareholder.

Aristocrat is suing its major rival.

Pokie rivals in bitter court dispute over dragon games

Aristocrat claims it has lost revenue and market share to its rival, which allegedly copied one of its top games. Light & Wonder described the lawsuit as baseless.

The family property in Sydney’s Ingleside suburb owned by Alex Wu and Jina Chen, founder of Nature’s Care.

Street Talk triggered $207m freeze order; family ‘flight risk’

The rich Taiwanese-Australian family behind the Nature’s Care brand lied to the tax office about their income, court documents allege.

ANZ Private’s general manager James Dunlop (L) and chief investment officer, Lakshman Anantakrishnan.

ANZ’s private bank joins crowded race for country’s richest families

The local bank has penned a deal with a fixed-income manager to tailor a bond portfolio for its richest clients.

BoQ backs Temenos amid claims software provider selling ‘vapourware’

Activist investor Hindenburg Research alleges the company has employed aggressive accounting practices and sold faulty products to local lenders.

Manufacturing wipeout a risk without right carbon border tax: Orica

CEO Sanjeev Gandhi has warned the future of manufacturing is under threat without carbon border taxes, while the cement sector is already suffering.

Virgin set to follow Qantas in raising fares

Airlines are increasing airfares as domestic demand remains robust and both carriers chase margin growth.

Companies in the News

Search companies

View stories and data from an ASX listed company

Markets

Pedestrians in Tokyo’s Shibuya district. Economic growth has meant Japan’s central bank is considering increasing rates next week.

Investors revisit ‘widow-maker’ trade ahead of Japan’s rate pivot

Fixed income managers are shorting government bonds amid growing speculation that Japan’s central bank will finally exit negative rates as soon as next week.

The transformation triggered by AI may take many years longer than today’s stock prices and funding expectations suggest.

Magnificent Seven falter as strategists warn of risks to AI rally

Signs that the gains in artificial intelligence darlings like Nvidia have hit a speed bump are adding to concern of the risks lurking beneath the surge in the sharemarket.

Bitcoin’s comeback is remarkable for defying the general shape of the current bull market.

Bitcoin fanatics are rightly feeling vindicated

The most popular cryptocurrency is starting to look like more than a passing fad.

Why inflation and rates are set to ‘rebound higher’

Expect interest rates to fall, but don’t expect them to stay there. That’s the big picture view of macroeconomic thinkers such as Wei Li and Peter Costello.

‘This bull market has legs’: BofA’s Subramanian

There’s no comparison between the S&P 500 and three historical bubbles: tulips in 1637, technology stocks in 2000 and US housing in 2007.

Opinion

Australia must not accept a low-growth future

The unambitious Intergenerational Report must not become the benchmark for this country’s growth prospects. Bold structural reform is needed.

The AFR View

Editorial

The AFR View

Why women will swing the US election

Joe Biden’s State of the Union address was an attempt to recapture the 2022 midterm wave driven by women angry about reproductive rights.

Ava Kalinauskas

Research Associate

Ava Kalinauskas

Biden just prolonged the private equity jam

The dearth of deals has left buyout funds sitting on 28,000 unsold companies worth a record $US3.2 trillion ($4.8 trillion).

Karen Maley

Columnist

Karen Maley

The case for a nuclear-powered Australia

Australians will have a clear choice at the next election between Labor’s reckless “renewables only” policy, or the Coalition’s diverse mix of complementary technologies.

Peter Dutton

Opposition leader

Peter Dutton

Welcome to a new world driven by supply not demand

It will be harder for central banks to manage a global economy now shaped by supply side constraints. But it won’t all be negative either.

Wei Li

Investment strategist

Wei Li

Metcash and Seek: Lessons from two contrasting IT projects

The learnings should be of interest to the broader economy, because badly handled IT projects – and there are too many to name – are a heavy drag on productivity.

Tony Boyd

Contributor

Tony Boyd

Reports

Women to Watch 2024

This article is part of the Women to Watch special report on the next generation of leaders, published on 8 March 2024.

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Politics

Experts have warned that any proposal to let first home buyers access their super needs to be coupled with significant efforts to boost housing supply.

Letting first home buyers tap their super could drive up house prices

Experts have warned that any proposal to let first home buyers access their super needs to be coupled with significant efforts to boost housing supply.

Aged Care Minister Anika Wells says people are willing to contribute to the cost of high quality aged care.

Wealthy Australians set to pay more for aged care

A long-awaited review has called for retirees to make rental contributions instead of large lump sum deposits to live in nursing homes; those receiving care at home are to pay more as well.

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, says tariff discussions are “on the right track”.

Chinese ambassador says tariff discussions ‘on the right track’

Xiao Qian said that the relationship between Beijing and Canberra had “stopped free-falling and stopped deteriorating” since their depths four years ago.

Chalmers pushes planning scheme amid torrent of new banking rules

The treasurer said the so-called regulatory grid would force regulators to consider the burden of changes on lenders, especially smaller and regional groups.

Yang Hengjun not that sick, says Chinese ambassador

Hopes for the release of Yang Hengjun on medical grounds have been dampened after the Chinese ambassador said the democracy advocate was not as sick as claimed.

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World

Jo Biden

Biden unveils big tax rises for rich, business in $11 trillion budget

The budget offers a stark contrast with Donald Trump’s economic plans ahead of November’s presidential election.

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the key policy meeting in Beijing.

Iron ore woes deepen as China’s key meet disappoints

The key annual gathering of China’s parliament failed to cheer commodities bulls hoping for a jolt to demand in the world’s biggest market for raw materials.

Palestinians wait for the humanitarian aid to be dropped by the US Air Force in Gaza City.

Biden warns assault on Rafah a ‘red line’ as Ramadan starts

Despite the president’s tough talk, experts say no signs are emerging Benjamin Netanyahu will alter the Gaza conflict that is entering a new dangerous phase.

Top photo agencies kill ‘manipulated’ Princess Kate image

The palace faces questions over the authorised image that shows the Princess of Wales looking happy and healthy after her surgery earlier this year.

Biden gets no credit for strong US economy: poll

The latest FT-Michigan Ross survey shows the challenges facing the president as the re-election campaign gears up.

Property

Connie Stojic’s five-bedroom, five-bathroom home in Maroubra sold for a record-breaking $14 million in 2021.

Couple who enjoyed $14m Sydney mansion accused of tax-dodging scheme

A husband and wife associated with a formwork subcontractor, and who once owned a $14 million trophy home, are facing claims they scammed the ATO of millions.

The single-level two-bedroom unit at 8/2 Lisson Grove, in inner-eastern Melbourne’s Hawthorn sold at auction for $835,000.

Pregnant first-home buyers pay $95,000 over reserve for 2-bed unit

A legal quirk reduced the competition for one young couple, who still fought hard for a ground-level unit they’ll move into – just before the birth of their child.

The archive section at Heritage Auction in Dallas, Texas.

Industrial property hits $300b and will surge ahead of offices

Once the ugly duckling of the commercial real estate, the value of prime industrial property is expected to surge above $400 billion over the next decade, leaving the office and retail sectors trailing in its wake.

Marrickville unit beats reserve by 22.5pc after luring in 20 bidders

The national clearance rate for auctions has firmed up to 72.8 per cent on preliminary numbers with buyer activity rising from population growth.

Rich Lister to sell South Yarra penthouse

Former Sonic Healthcare chairman Michael Boyd is offloading his luxury Melbourne bolthole, while Rokt co-founder Ben Voltz is selling his Toorak home ahead of Sydney move.

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Wealth

The decline extends beyond pure-play renewable companies to firms involved in EV charging, energy storage and heat pumps.

Green energy stocks have been belted. What comes next?

Dismissing the sector’s long-term potential based solely on short-term underperformance would be a mistake, writes James Wright.

Rates should start dropping within a year even if inflation is sticky

Sticky inflation will potentially keep rates at between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent.

These are the best countries for wealthy expats

The growing wealth gap in many western countries is pushing some to restrict tax and citizenship benefits aimed at expats. So where can they go to protect their assets?

Technology

Trade Indy’s Mark Rosenberg, Mike Robertson, Calvin Pinnegar and James Robertson are in the money after selling the company to Sqreem.

Melbourne entrepreneurs’ $30m payday in Singapore buyout

The deal for 100 per cent of the shares in privately held Trade Indy closed last week, and all of its 28 full-time staff will move across to Singapore’s Sqreem.

Dr Nick Murphy founded GenEmbryomics in 2019.

Aussie IVF guru plans Nasdaq listing

GenEmbryomics founder Nick Murphy invented a test to screen embryos for genetic disorders. He wants to go public in the US, where the company’s customers live.

Former Young Rich Lister lands $12.5 million for second start-up

The Funded blog is the home for news on the tech deals that are done in Australia, as soon as we hear about them.

Work & Careers

Lucinda Holdforth appearing at the Summit.

Why business leaders can’t cope with criticism

Chief executives who insist on hiring “yes people” soon forget how to present an argument in public, speechwriter and author Lucinda Holdforth claims.

The misery of motormouths in meetings

The ability to interrupt yammering windbags who steal time is a sorely underrated skill.

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Life & Luxury

The Oscars are the film awards by which all others are judged.

Spurned, slighted, rejected: Oscar snubs critics will never get over

There are some movies and artists that memorably – and some would say outrageously – got the brush off from the academy.

The Tokyo Edition, Sophie Restaurant at night.

A sneak peek inside Ginza’s new street-level luxe lodgings

The Edition’s second offering in the Japanese capital offers a more intimate alternative to the city’s high-rise hotels.

If you can get your hands on Fujifilm’s latest camera, do

There was very little wrong with the old Fujifilm X100V, other than it was so popular it was near-impossible to buy. The new X100VI has even fewer flaws, but still has that one.

Black ballerina shoes by Tod’s.

‘Balletcore’ fashion takes centre stage – and not just for women

This season, designers are taking their cues from the stage and injecting collections with hyperfeminine looks that wouldn’t be out of place at the barre.

The 15-inch model is a good deal bigger than the 13-inch model, but not so much bigger that it’s a problem.

How to choose which MacBook Air to buy

There’s no question the new MacBook Air is the best laptop on the market for most people. The only question is, which size? Our tests reveal the answer.

From the gallery