Yesterday
Traders braced for possible surprise NZ interest rate rise
There is a one-in-three chance the RBNZ could lift the cash rate on Wednesday to 5.75 per cent and the world is watching.
- Cecile Lefort
This Month
Traders rethink rate path as Fed fears easing too early
The market is implying a total of three US rate cuts this year, down from four last week. The Reserve Bank is expected to start lowering rates in June.
- Cecile Lefort
Fund managers eye up 20pc returns from hurricanes
Catastrophe bond portfolios ranked among the best performing funds last year as insurance companies paid hefty premiums to protect against disaster risks.
- Cecile Lefort
Weak jobs data reignites hopes of early rate cut
The Australian dollar and bond yields slipped after the unemployment rate ticked higher, but experts caution against pinning too much hope on an early rate cut.
- Cecile Lefort
Global bonds sell-off as rate cut hopes dashed
Surprisingly strong US inflation data has snuffed out the last remnants of a global bond rally and hopes of an early Fed rate cut.
- Sarah Jones and Cecile Lefort
RBA might not cut until 2025, says CBA’s Comyn
Financial markets pushed back their own bets of the likely timing of easing to December, from September.
- Lucas Baird, Cecile Lefort, Joshua Peach and James Eyers
Bond traders cave to the Fed by dialling back rate cut bets
Markets are starting to take the US central bank at its word, and are now pricing in four rate cuts in 2024 versus as many as seven predicted late last year.
- Michael Mackenzie, Liz Capo McCormick and Ye Xie
This fundie is making money on bond price errors
Laura Ryan at Ardea Investment Management does not care what the RBA does with interest rates. Her job is to find inefficiencies in government bond prices.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders are ‘unconvinced’ by rate cut caution
Bond traders and some investors have dismissed the Reserve Bank’s warning about a further rate increase and are instead betting on some rate relief in June.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders return to square one, challenging RBA’s new mood
RBA watchers commended governor Michele Bullock’s clear communication about quashing inflation. The market’s conviction was more fleeting.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
RBA dashes hopes of imminent rate cuts
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent as expected, but poured cold water on a mid-year rate cut, saying inflation is high.
- Cecile Lefort
Here’s what the top economic forecaster predicts for 2024
Warren Hogan has been named the AFR’s best economic forecaster for 2023, after being the only economist out of 29 to accurately predict five rate rises last year.
- Cecile Lefort
Sticky inflation will haunt the RBA, say top forecasters
Persistently high services inflation may derail market expectations of an interest rate cut as early as May, according to the best economist forecasts for 2024.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
Expect a ‘verbal pivot’ from the RBA but no imminent rate cuts
A reduction in the cash rate some time this year is plausible, but there is still some distance to travel before arriving at any imperative decision.
- Stephen Miller
Forget the Fed, traders hold firm on RBA rate cuts
Markets are still sticking with their ramped-up bets for two rate cuts in Australia this year, despite the US Federal Reserve taking a more dovish tone.
- Updated
- Sarah Jones
January
Fearing a bond sell-off? History shows gains are more likely
For bond traders worried that the Fed will trigger a sell-off this week, history shows that FOMC meetings are more likely to set off rallies instead.
- Ye Xie
Bond traders ramp up early rate cut bets as inflation cools
The latest CPI data cemented expectations of an RBA policy hold next week, but the central bank may reiterate it is ready to lift rates again if necessary.
- Cecile Lefort
Traders line up for ‘once-in-a-generation’ bet on emerging markets
Optimism is sweeping through domestic bond markets as investors wager that the Fed will soon start lowering rates.
- Carolina Wilson and Zijia Song
- Opinion
- Inflation
The truth behind the cost-of-living crisis and inflation
Rising costs have dominated our politics, but the data reveals the pressure is only really felt in one area.
- Tim Hext
Markets still too bullish on interest rate cuts
Bond investors are cautioning that expectations of imminent rate cuts are a touch too aggressive, even after traders have dialled back their bets.
- Cecile Lefort
