This Month
- Analysis
- Immigration
Immigration could save the US from recession. But there’s a catch
The immigration crisis is fuelling economic growth, according to experts. Others say it can burden cities with huge costs and drive down productivity and wages
- Matthew Cranston
Amazon economists say they can spot a recession in real time
Two economists at the tech giant say they have a model that allows them to identify a recession in the US and Europe.
- Alex Tanzi
January
- Analysis
- GDP
How much longer can the US avoid recession?
Job cuts and softer spending may be the warning signs that it’s too early to say the world’s biggest economy will continue to expand this year.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- US election
Don’t be too quick to celebrate latest US economic data
There might not be a crash landing for the US economy, but it’s too early to say it is safely back on the tarmac. Much depends on jobs and spending this year.
- Matthew Cranston
December 2023
- Opinion
- Opinion
How were so many economists so wrong about a US recession?
There is a reason that so many economists have been predicting a recession in the US — and it is not because they are out of touch.
- Tyler Cowen
- Analysis
- Global economy
Anyone seen that US recession?
The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.
- Matthew Cranston
- Analysis
- Interest rates
Strong jobs market holds back Fed rate cuts
Employment growth is still key to predicting the Federal Reserve’s path to interest rate cuts, as Jerome Powell faces intense pressure to reveal his plan.
- Matthew Cranston
October 2023
- Analysis
- Industrial relations
Why a 36pc pay rise at US car makers won’t inflame inflation
The wage jump over four years demanded by US car workers would lift inflation only slightly, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
- Matthew Cranston
September 2023
- Opinion
- Bonds
Bank stocks 17pc overvalued based on bonds
New research that extends the equity risk premium framework to bank stocks implies they face downside risks.
- Christopher Joye
- Analysis
- Residential property
How first home buyers are keeping the US market alive
Few Americans are selling their homes as about 60 per cent of mortgages are locked in to low rates, but first home buyers are still entering the market.
- Matthew Cranston
August 2023
Why Yellow Corp’s collapse makes a good MBA case study
The threat of strike action was the last straw for a company that was slow to consolidate a series of acquisitions as the debts mounted.
- Matthew Cranston
- Analysis
- US politics
Why Biden isn’t getting a boost from a strong economy
The US president has a disapproval rating as high as Trump’s was at the same stage in his presidency.
- Matthew Cranston
July 2023
- Opinion
- Opinion
How to win the recession guessing game
There’s a good argument for remaining invested in shares, but retaining an allocation to cash or fixed income as a defensive strategy and to pick up a bargain.
- James Weir
June 2023
- Opinion
- Inflation
Inflation’s sticky grip: why central banks are coming back for more
Markets are delaying predictions of hoped-for interest rate cuts until early 2024, with more increases ahead if inflation pressures don’t dissipate faster.
- Scott Haslem
- Analysis
- Monetary policy
What the Fed’s hawkish feint really means
The Federal Reserve might have hinted at higher interest rates, but for those betting on them maybe now is the opportunity to reassess.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- Inflation
The loneliest voices on a Fed rate rise this week
There are still some brave economists who think the latest US inflation data mean the Fed has to lift interest rates again before thinking of a pause.
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- Interest rates
House prices to get whacked by rates again
Given unchanged productivity and higher wages, the RBA will be projecting even higher inflation, meaning more rate rises.
- Christopher Joye
May 2023
- Opinion
- Opinion
Why do Americans believe their economy is bad when it isn’t?
What the data says, and how workers and consumers perceive it, are two very different things. Blame economists for this.
- Paul Krugman
- Analysis
- SVB collapse
What one law firm saw on the eve of the SVB collapse
Panicked multimillion-dollar companies were sending Rick Giovannelli emails asking if they should withdraw their money and send to their CEO’s personal bank accounts.
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
Risk of Fed fissures grows as inflation fight tests resolve
Jerome Powell’s job in corralling policymaking colleagues has just become a lot more complicated.
- Diane Swonk
