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Markets

Commodities

February

Slowing sales in EV and over-supply in batteries in China will weigh on nickel and lithium.

More pain for nickel, lithium as supply deluge bites

Of the three key critical minerals, nickel has the darkest outlook because of cheap supply from Indonesia, but investors are backing copper as demand picks up.

  • Cecile Lefort
Iron ore prices could sink to $US80 a tonne, Yarra warned.

‘Complacent’ iron ore market vulnerable to lithium-style crash

Iron ore prices are not factoring in a wave of new supply, leaving the commodity vulnerable to the same collapse that smashed battery metals, Yarra warns.

  • Alex Gluyas
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Newmont puts Telfer, Havieron mines in WA up for sale

The world’s top gold producer is seeking to sell six mines and two projects as part of an effort to generate $3.1 billion in cash.

  • Jacob Lorinc
Shell said global natural gas demand peaked in the 2010s in places such as Japan, Europe and Australia. It expects North America to follow in the 2030s and the rest of the world in the 2040s.

Shell lowers LNG growth view as demand set to peak in 2040s

Global natural gas demand peaked in the 2010s in Japan, Europe and Australia. Shell expects North America to follow in the 2030s and then the rest of the world.

  • Anna Shiryaevskaya
Crude oil edged higher after three days of gains.

Oil climbs with global equities, Middle East in focus

Energy prices are tracking a rally in global risk assets and continued aggression from Iranian-backed Houthi militants.

  • Updated
  • Yongchang Chin
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Indonesia votes: dynasties, democracy and nickel

This week on The Fin podcast, Emma Connors on who is in the race to be Indonesia’s next president and what that will mean for the region and for Australia’s nickel miners.

The Greenbushes mine is owned jointly by IGO, China’s Tianqi and Albemarle.

Wild swings ahead for lithium as producers ‘play chicken’

A sharp correction in the battery metal price has triggered more cut backs in output and analysts say investors should brace for even more volatility.

  • Joshua Peach
Pilbara Minerals’ lithium mine in Western Australia. The company has warned that a fall in lithium price means shareholders shouldn’t expect a dividend in the first half of the year.

Bank of America more than halves lithium price forecasts for this year

The bank’s commodities strategists say competition between Australia and China is keeping supply growing even when there is limited demand.

  • Timothy Moore

January

The latest stimulus measures out of China has prompted Citi to double down on its iron ore forecast.

Citi tips iron ore at $US150 on China hopes

Citi has doubled down on its iron ore forecast and has upgraded its copper forecasts after Beijing pledged further support for its struggling economy. Goldman is also bullish.

  • Alex Gluyas
Stockpiles of iron ore in China rose for the sixth straight month.

Iron ore prices hit the skids on China growth fears

Iron ore prices tumbled 6 per cent last week to below $US130 a tonne after China’s disappointing economic data and the central bank’s decision not to cut rates on Monday.

  • Cecile Lefort
Dairy cows in Gippsland, Victoria. The higher price paid to farmers in Australia is raising questions about the viability of some food processors.

The government helped dairy farmers – and created another problem

The gap between the local farm gate price and that in New Zealand is now so wide there has been a rise in cheaper imports, hurting Australian producers.

  • Cecile Lefort
A ship transits the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea on January 10.

Oil tops $US80 as strikes against Houthis raise Middle East risks

Global benchmark brent rose as much as 4.3 per cent, briefly topping $US80 a barrel, as investors feared an escalation of hostilities.

  • Alex Longley and Yongchang Chin
The US exported 91.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data through December 31 compiled by Bloomberg.

US becomes top LNG exporter, overtaking Australia and Qatar

The US exported 91.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia was second.

  • Ruth Liao
There was an earlier report that Aloca was poised to close the 60-year-old Kwinana alumina refinery.

Alcoa to cut jobs as it slows output at WA alumina plant

Alcoa will curtail its Kwinana alumina refinery, which has about 860 workers and 320 contractors as the top US aluminium producer begins to reckon with cost-cutting measures.

  • Joe Deaux
Major Wall Street have been cutting their outlooks for this year, expecting more challenges for prices.

Oil slumps as Saudi price cuts underscore softer market outlook

US oil futures tumbled as much as 5 per cent, the biggest intraday drop in more than a month, to trade near $US70 a barrel. Brent tracked those losses.

  • Julia Fanzeres and Alex Longley
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OPEC+ will hold an online monitoring meeting to review market conditions on February 1.

Oil rises amid Middle East turmoil, renewed supply concerns

The commodity returned to the $US78 a barrel mark as bombings in Iran ramped up worries that Israel’s war against Hamas would trigger a wider conflict.

  • Updated
  • Julia Fanzeres
China’s focus on domestic consumption won’t help Australia’s iron ore miners maintain their bullish momentum.

What is behind the iron ore rally?

China’s love affair with property may be ending, but no one seems to have told iron ore traders.

  • The Lex Column