Hey Guys,

This one feels like it could get ugly quick. The Browns seem to have found something left in the tank for Flacco, who has been great throwing the ball all over the park. The Jets secondary is a tough unit to move the ball on though, so that could keep them in the game a little. But this Browns defense playing at home are going to be too much for this Jets offense. The O/U here is around 35, with the Browns favored by around a TD.

Thanks & good luck Rich

8 games today. Lesdoit

Pistons @ Celtics (Bos -17!! 232)

Celtics a huge favorite here and for good reason. Killian Hayes and Ausar Thompson are Q tags tonight and Isiah Stewart is OUT. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown. Despite this massive spread, and especially if Hayes and Ausar, sit, the Detroit pricing is actually super fair. Guys like Bojan Bogdanovic at $6400 and Jalen Duren at $6200 look like really solid plays if they Pistons can keep this game close through the 3rd quarter. Jaden Ivey as well at $6400. Playing Cade is also fine at $8200, as he absolutely has the talent to get to a ceiling, I'm just not too confident in the matchup here. Holiday and White are really solid defenders, and you'd really have to think cade will be the focal point of the Cs defensive strategy. Alec Burks is a fine cheapy at $4200 if those other guards sit. He's yet to see a shot he doesn't like, so can absolutely get you 20+ dk points in 20+ minutes if given the chance. If you're rolling out some of the pistons, I like the idea of playing some of the cheaper Celtics. Guys like Payton Pritchard $4500 would get extra run in a blowout, and he'd likely be a lot of the reason if it blew out early. If the Celtics bench comes in and dominates, this game will be over early.

Pacers @ Bulls (chi -1.5 236)

The bulls being a favorite here makes me pretty confident Tyrese Haliburton will sit tonight. He's currently questionable and Bruce Brown is already ruled out. TJ McConnell at $4400 will probably be the highest owned player on the slate with no Hali, followed closely by Andrew Nembhard at $5500. You can totally use both. The other pacer plays are all in play for tournaments as well. Toppin, Mathurin, Nesmith, Smith, Turner, Hield are all super high risk high reward plays night in and night out. All the production that Hali does will likely be absorbed by the 2 guards, but it's pretty darn likely that 2 of those other dudes get theirs as well. Nesmith and Buddy are probably the safest of the bunch. For the Bulls, it's pretty possible that $7500 is still too cheap for Andre Drummond. The guys an absolute rebound/putback machine, and if he can stay out of foul trouble (which should be easy the way Myles Turner plays), he'll likely produce stats in bunches. DDR and Coby are also great plays tonight. Indy doesn't play defense. Pat Williams will get the run, but will it matter? Maybe. High risk high reward play here, with better options around that price out there.

Jazz @ Pels (No -8.5 239)

These teams; healthy. These rotations; sketchy. These prices; tasty. On the New Orleans side, Ingram and Zion look so good at $7800 and $7700. I like Ingram a touch more here. Jazz have more size inside than a true wing stopper. Joval is meh at $7100. Might get there but don't think he's necessary at all tonight. Lot of good C options. CJ has been down with his production these last couple games, but the minutes are still there for him to get his at $6800. Trey Murphy sees pretty heavy minutes nightly but there's a lot of guys tryna eat on this squad. $5700 is fine tho. The other guys are just tourney punts. Definitely look for how the Jazz starting lineup shakes out before feeling too confident in these guys other than Lauri and Clarkson. They're the safest to see high 30s minutes.

Mavs @ Wolves (min -12.5 226.5)

Luka is OUT but this is really not a good matchup. Guys like Jaden Hardy being priced over 5k going against the best defense in the league is a skip for me. THJ $6600 will likely lead the team in FGA but id probably rather look at Exum $6300 or DJJ $5100 who can get their number in more ways than scoring and will likely see heavy minutes. Josh Green is back too for the Mavs, which makes this rotation a little less predictable. He only played 21 mins in his first game back from injury, but at $4200 is probably the only maverick I'm looking at rostering tonight. Unless Kat sits, I'm skipping the wolves tonight too. Naz looks great at $5900 if Kat sits. Gobert is an option too, go look at what Jarrett Allen did last night to this Mavs interior of you want a reason. He's a fun leverage play off Drummond if Kat is OUT.

Grizzlies @ Nuggies (Den -8.5 224)

Will Memphis ever lose again? Yes. Likely tonight, especially if Ja sits, which the line movement today makes me feel is likelier to happen than not. Jamal Murray remains under 8k for some reason, and the Nuggs might be without his backup tonight. Fine play as usual. I'm curious to see what they do to their starting lineup without Aaron Gordon here. If it's Holiday, KCP $4600 and MPJ $6100 look a little extra good at those prices, as they'll likely get the extra looks. I really like looking to Peyton Watson $3800 anytime this Nuggets team is short handed, he's been hit or miss there, but if RJAX is also out tonight, we can feel pretty good about Watson. Same with Braun and Strawther. Jokic is Jokic. If youve got the money, you play him. Marcus Smart $5400 Vince Williams $4900 and Xavier Tillman $4600 look like the best value plays on MEM, if both Ja and Aldama sit out tonight, and then Desmond Bane would be the usage machine he can be at $8100. I never trust JJJ

Heat @ Warriors (GS -5.5 228)

No Jimmy, No Lowry, No Martin, and maybe No Richardson tonight for the Heat. Jaime looks great at $6300. Tyler Herro and Bam also look great at their mid 8k prices. Duncan Robinson looks good at $5700. Highsmith, Cain, and Hampton would be the other guys to get run if Richardson sits. Likely all in play if that's the case. If Josh goes, he's totally good looking at $4600. The Warriors are tougher to figure out. Their studs seem cheap, but aren't getting the numbers wed need from them. Like Curry and Klay absolutely can reach these ceilings, but I definitely don't like this matchup, and they haven't flashed those ceiling numbers lately. The teams good results have late have been coming from the young guns doing their thing. Podziemski at $5700? Way better option than Duncan on the other side imo. Gotta definitely look at Andrew Wiggins at $4900, but he has been coming off the bench, which makes his path to extra minutes a little riskier. Saric, Loongod, and TJD are all running as the big man right now. One of em will see minutes in the mid 20s. I don't know which one though, and Steve Kerr doesn't either. All depends on game flow. Tough to play the warriors outside of Podz, Kuminga, Wiggins here. Guess you could take a shot on CP3 too.

Spurs @ Blazers (Por -5 235.5)

Ayton and Sharpe are OUT again for the Blazers, and this team should be feeling the vibes after stomping on my Kings last time out. These prices on these guys all look great with Anfernee Simons at $8200 being my favorite here. The Slim Reather $3800, showed he can produce starting or not, and will likely be needed for his length to try and handle wemby. Guys like Walker, Camara, and Thybulle are just ok low 4k floor plays. Not itching to play em. Walker is the best of that bunch though. Studs like Simons, Brogdon, Grant and maybe even scoot here, and Duop are where I'm looking. On the Spurs side, Wembys minutes of late are reason to be cautious here, otherwise he'd look so freaking good. Sochan, Collins and Johnson are just OK 6k plays. Vassell has the highest ceiling but has a really wide range of potential outcomes for a 7k dude. Tough to feel confident there. Champagne at $4500 > than Malaki Branham at $5100 that's for darn sure.

Hornets @ Lakers (LA -12 226.5)

Hornets are such a fuckin mess man. Hayward is Out, Williams and Miller are Questionable, and their bench is dog water. For the Lakers, it's the usual song and dance. Hopefully this time we get some of their main dudes to actually sit, otherwise this game is probably a skip for them. If all the Hornets sit, the minutes will be at least safe for Rozier, Bridges, Richards Washington, but the blowout would be likely. If the Lakers all sit too, then this game gets appealing. Tough to hold out on this news given all the good plays out there today.

😸