With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

HISTORY LESSON, PART 1 — “Martin Luther King Jr. Was a Radical,” by Sheryll Cashin for POLITICO Magazine: “The civil rights icon’s image has been sanitized to Kumbaya, feel-good platitudes. But his message was always that of radical, revolutionary change.”

HISTORY LESSON, PART 2 — “RFK Jr. defends Kennedy administration wiretap of Martin Luther King Jr.,” by Brittany Gibson: “I think, politically, they had to do it.”

CAUCUS DAY IS HERE — Good morning from a frozen West Des Moines, Iowa — where we slipped and slid several times on the icy roads yesterday after making a late-night arrival in the Hawkeye State. Wish us good luck and better traction as we head to a local precinct for tonight’s Republican presidential caucus and then to RON DeSANTIS’ election party.

Yes, we made it — all of us: Today marks the beginning of the end of a Republican presidential primary process that’s so far been absolutely dominated by former President DONALD TRUMP.

By the end of the day (we hope) Iowans will give us a pretty good idea about whether the former president can lock up the nomination in mid-March, as his campaign is hoping and predicting, or whether we might have a more drawn-out fight on our hands.

Iowa Republicans won’t be heading to their local gymnasiums, libraries or churches for hours yet, but the campaigns’ pre-spinning is already well underway.

— Let’s start with Trump: After spending months bragging about his frontrunner status, Trump’s team is trying to lower expectations about how well he’ll do tonight. Last week, top Trump campaign adviser CHRIS LaCIVITA raised a few eyebrows when he told reporters that a 12-point win would be a good night — a much lower number than we’ve seen in recent polling.

Count DONALD TRUMP JR., too, among those preliminarily accusing the media of inflating expectations for his dad: "I think they’re going to try to design it to get Trump voters to think that there’s such a lead that they don’t [vote], so that they can run the story of there was an underperformance, so that’s why I think people have to turn up," he told NBC a few days ago.

That’s plenty rich considering the elder Trump’s penchant for boasting about his big polling leads. In case you had forgotten about that, NIKKI HALEY’s campaign is up with a highlight reel of the multiple times he boasted about a 60-point advantage.

— As for DeSantis: All of a sudden, the Florida governor wants to embrace his underdog status. As recently as last month, DeSantis had boldly predicted that “we’re going to win the caucus.”

He now appears to have realized that any further braggadocio could only compound his potential embarrassment tonight given the size and durability of Trump’s polling lead. We’re starting to hear from DeSantis allies that the pressure is actually on Haley to snag second — not him.

And yet DeSantis is the one who bet all his chips on Iowa — visiting all 99 counties, moving campaign staff to the Hawkeye State, landing the endorsements of Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS and evangelical leader BOB VANDER PLAATS and, via his super PAC, knocking on nearly a million doors.

The conversation now is trained on whether DeSantis can survive a third-place finish. His team is sending signals that he won’t drop out of the race, noticing campaign stops in South Carolina later this week, for example. But his own supporters aren’t necessarily buying it.

“I’ll be frank: I would say third place is not good,” said HAL LAMBERT, who serves on DeSantis’ national finance committee, to our colleague Kimberly Leonard, arguing that “a close second would be a successful outcome” and anything less than that would be bad. Read more about DeSantis’ woes here

— Meanwhile, at Haley headquarters: The former South Carolina governor’s allies have tried to downplay the stakes in Iowa for weeks now, arguing that she doesn’t need a second-place finish to maintain a viable path to the nomination.

Indeed, evangelical voters, who tend to dominate GOP politics in the state, have gravitated toward Trump and DeSantis. And yet, Haley has spent more money on TV than any other candidate, a fact DeSantis allies have been holding up lately to argue she has expectations of her own to meet.

Beyond the spin, there are clear signs that some campaigns are engaged in some last-ditch scrambling to improve their margins. Over the past 48 hours, Trump and his allies have blasted VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who has acted as something of a Trump surrogate nearly the entire primary season.

But Trump’s team knows he’s polling in the high single digits — 8 percent,according to the Des Moines Register’s weekend poll — support that would go overwhelmingly to Trump should Ramaswamy drop out, and could be enough to push Trump above the 50 percent mark he’d like to hit tonight.

DeSantis, meanwhile, issued some of his harshest words yet against Trump yesterday, arguing on ABC’s “This Week” that his legal challenges are an electoral albatross then blasting him personally in a late-day campaign appearance in Ankeny.

“He's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first,” DeSantis said. “That's what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican in America. But if you kiss the ring, he'll say you’re wonderful.”

In not unrelated news, still more top Republicans endorsed Trump yesterday, including Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and former presidential rival and North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM.

Follow POLITICO’s liveblog for all the action on the ground

Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. We’re wishing you a peaceful and contemplative Martin Luther King Jr. Day and hoping you’re reading us from cozy confines this morning, especially if you’re with us here in Iowa. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

More caucus day reads …

HOW TO WATCH TONIGHT LIKE A PRO — “5 numbers that define Iowa,” by Steve Shepard

SUPPORT SYSTEM — “Majority of Iowa caucusgoers say Trump conviction wouldn’t affect their support,” by NBC’s Mark Murray: “More than 6-in-10 likely Republican caucusgoers — 61% — say that it doesn’t matter to their support if former President Donald Trump is convicted of a crime before the general election, according to the latest numbers from the new NBC News/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa. By comparison, 19% of likely Iowa caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would make it more likely that they’d back Trump, while 18% say it would make them less likely to support the former president in the general election.”

A MATTER OF DEGREES — “How College-Educated Republicans Learned to Love Trump Again,” by NYT’s Michael Bender: “Their surge toward the former president appears to stem largely from a reaction to the current political climate rather than a sudden clamoring to join the red-capped citizenry of MAGA nation, according to interviews with nearly two dozen college-educated Republican voters.”

ANATOMY OF A CAUCUSGOER — “TV ads, town halls and tons of mail: How 6 Iowans picked a candidate,” by WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Meryl Kornfield in Cedar Rapids: “Many, including legions of loyal Trump supporters who have bolstered his standing, made their decisions long ago. But 1 in 4 caucusgoers say they could change their minds as Trump tries to turn out his supporters for a knockout show of force and Haley seeks to finish ahead of DeSantis.”

MOOD MUSIC — “How Iowa’s Economy Is Faring Heading Into the Caucuses, in Seven Charts,” by WSJ’s Harriet Torry: “Unemployment is low, and earnings have risen more slowly in the state than nationwide.”

ON THE SCENE — “At Iowa’s oldest gay bar, fear over Republicans’ transgender rhetoric,” by WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield in Des Moines

THE WEEK — Today: The 54th annual World Economic Forum meeting opens in Davos, Switzerland … Tomorrow: Second trial over E. JEAN CARROLL’s civil defamation claims against Trump begins in NYC. … Wednesday: December retail sales figures released. … Thursday: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN testifies before closed session of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. ABC News hosts Republican presidential debate in Manchester, N.H. Briefs due in Supreme Court appeal of Trump ballot decision in Colorado. … Friday: The 51st annual March for Life is held on the National Mall. Funding for some government agencies expires at midnight.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden will travel from Camp David to Philadelphia, where he will volunteer with a hunger relief organization for Martin Luther King, Jr., Day of Service. In the afternoon, Biden will return to the White House.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Columbia, South Carolina, where she is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the NAACP South Carolina State Conference “King Day at the Dome” event. In the afternoon, Harris will participate in a campaign event and return to D.C. in the evening.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. NEW COMPASS COLUMN: Our colleague Nahal Toosi is up with her latest Compass column, digging into what foreign diplomats say about U.S. politics behind closed doors: “As voters cast ballots in the Iowa caucuses Monday, many in the United States see this year’s presidential election as a test of American democracy. But, in a series of conversations with a dozen current and former diplomats, I sensed that to many of our friends abroad, the U.S. is already failing that test. The diplomats are aghast that so many U.S. leaders let their zeal for partisan politics prevent the basic functions of government.”

Said one diplomat: “I don’t know if in the coming years people will be looking at the United States as a model for democracy.”

2. STATE OF THE SPEAKER: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is nearing his 100th day on the job, and now as congressional leaders circle a two-tiered stopgap into March, the proposed track is “sparking quick pushback from his right flank, who wanted to use the funding deadlines to crackdown along the U.S.-Mexico border,” our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney write.

“Johnson, during a conference call Sunday night, defended the two-tier plan that would set another pair of short-term funding deadlines for March 1 and March 8. He also reiterated Republicans’ view that their sweeping immigration bill that passed last year is their starting point for any border talks. But that did little to quell immediate pushback from hardline conservatives, who have argued for Johnson to shut down the government without border concessions.”

Related read: “Speaker Johnson reaches a crossroads in leading an unruly House GOP conference,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell

3. STAKE YOUR MONEY MAKER: The Biden reelection campaign, the DNC and their joint-fundraising committees raked in more than $97 million in the final three months of 2023, Holly Otterbein reports this morning. “The sum represents a large haul for the reelection, placing it ahead of Biden’s most recent Democratic predecessor but behind then-President Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign.”

The historical context: “In the last quarter of 2019, Trump and the Republican National Committee collected more than $154 million. When BARACK OBAMA ran for reelection in 2011, he and the DNC brought in $68 million during the fourth quarter. Biden and associated committees raised $71 million in the third quarter of 2023.”

4. DAVOS DOWNLOAD: As world leaders and luminaries gather in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum this week, U.S. diplomats have been concerned enough about the size and intent of a Chinese delegation to suggest a meeting between Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and a top Swiss official while he’s in the country, Nahal reports from on the ground.

“The discussion about adjusting Blinken’s schedule — laid out in a State Department document obtained by POLITICO — appears designed to ensure that famously neutral Switzerland doesn’t feel jaded by Washington amid potential wooing by Beijing.”

Related read: “Taiwan Election Piles Pressure on Delicate U.S.-China Ties,” by WSJ’s Chun Han Wong in Taipei and Charles Hutzler in Washington

5. IMMIGRATION FILES: Three migrants — a woman and two children — drowned this weekend in a park near Eagle Pass, Texas, that state troopers took over last week, the Texas Tribune’s Sneha Dey reports. “When Border Patrol agents received a call Friday evening from the Mexican government about the migrants in distress, Texas officials barred the federal agents from entering the area and providing aid, according to a DHS spokesperson.”

The episode “intensified tensions between Texas and the Biden administration. They also unleashed a new round of criticism from Democrats over [Gov. GREG] ABBOTT’s aggressive actions to curb illegal crossings, accusing the measures of putting migrants at risk,” AP’s Jamie Stengle and Valerie Gonzalez write from Brownsville, Texas.

6. HUNTER GATHERING: House Republicans will move ahead with a planned vote to hold HUNTER BIDEN in contempt, unless they reach a deal with his team for an interview, House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE told the conference during a call yesterday. “Republicans will need near unity in order to make a referral to the Justice Department that Biden be held in contempt of Congress. A swath of GOP lawmakers indicated last week that they hadn’t yet made a decision on how they would vote and Republicans are dealing with absences,” Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers write. The contempt vote is currently on the calendar for Thursday.

7. HOW THE WEST WAS DONE: “U.S. and Iran Battle Through Proxies, Warily Avoiding Each Other,” by NYT’s David Sanger, Julian Barnes, Vivian Yee and Alissa Rubin: “For all the fears of an outbreak of fighting in the Middle East that could draw the United States, Israel and Iran into direct combat, a curious feature of the conflict so far is the care taken — in both Tehran and Washington — to avoid putting their forces into direct contact.

“No one knows how long that will last, American and European diplomats and other officials say. But 100 days into the conflict, the assessment of most of the key players is that Iran has pushed its proxies to make trouble for the American military and to pressure Israel and the West in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the shipping lanes of the Red Sea while going to some lengths to avoid provoking a larger eruption.”

Meanwhile, despite its pleas for Israel to rein in its military operations, the Biden administration “has appeared unable or unwilling to exert meaningful influence over how the Israeli military conducts the war,” WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and John Hudson write. “Although the United States has been at the forefront of efforts to get aid to Palestinians in Gaza and gain the release of hostages held there, its dual role as Israel’s leading defender against an increasingly hostile world has met with escalating international and domestic criticism and demands for an immediate cease-fire.”

Related reads: “Yemen Houthi rebels fire missile at U.S. warship in Red Sea in first attack after American-led strikes,” by AP’s Jon Gambrell … “White House says ‘it’s the right time’ for Israel to scale back Gaza war as fighting hits 100 days,” by AP’s Josef Federman, Samy Magdy and Kareem Chehayeb … “After 100 Days, Israel-Hamas War Threatens to Spill Beyond Gaza, Disrupt Global Trade,” by WSJ’s Rory Jones … “100 days on, devastation in Gaza mounts and hostage families grow desperate,” by NBC’s Chantal Da Silva in Tel Aviv

8. HAPPENING TOMORROW: At the second Trump defamation trial beginning tomorrow, jurors will wrestle with a narrow question: “How much money must former President Donald J. Trump pay the writer E. Jean Carroll for defaming her after she accused him of raping her?” NYT’s Benjamin Weiser, Maggie Haberman and Maria Cramer write.

Carroll won about $5 million from the former president in the earlier case, and now Trump is seeking to testify in the new case. “That’s sparked a bitter dispute between lawyers for Ms. Carroll, 80, and Mr. Trump, 77, over what the former president could say if he took the stand, and whether he would stray beyond strict boundaries the judge has set.”

9. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: WSJ’s Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros survey a host of economic heads to take the temperature on the state of the economy and set expectations for the year ahead: “The good news is the probability of a recession is down sharply, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists. The bad news is that, for a lot of people, it is still going to feel like a recession. … [E]conomists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.”

Related read: “The Businesses That Rescued America From Inflation, Recession, Lost Jobs,” by WSJ’s Greg Ip

PLAYBOOKERS

Adam Schiff picked up the LA Times endorsement in the California Senate race.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy will hit Davos this week.

Dean Phillips is chatting today with Elon Musk and Bill Ackman.

Greg Murphy wasn’t happy with our colleague’s stellar reporting.

Gene Sperling has had a good week back home.

OUT AND ABOUT — Women Business Collaborative CEO Gwen Young honored World Trade Organization Director General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala with the prestigious Trailblazer in Gender Equity and Diversity Award on Friday night at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. SPOTTED: Ex-Im Chair Reta Jo Lewis, USTDA Director Enoh T. Ebong, Edie Fraser, Kevin Cirilli, Jan DuPlain, Emily Wilkins, Eric Martin, Gavin Bade, Brittany Gibson, Louise Schiavone, Reginald Greer, Charles Moran, Chris Organ, Alexandria Maloney, Leslie Lautenslager, Elizabeth Blockman, Clay Doherty, Allyson McKithen and George Holmes.

— The Washington Design Center and RUE IV hosted author and designer India Hicks for the Washington Winter Show and a reception celebrating her book “An Entertaining Story” ($50) on Friday night. SPOTTED: Bahamas Ambassador Chet Donovan Neymour, Lea Berman, Alice Berman, Roxy Ndebumadu, Cam Henderson, Erin Marie McDermott, Thomas Lloyd, Hadley Keller, LaToya Foster, Bryan Huffman, Eve and Edward Lemon, Johanna Persing, Samantha Simms, Jay and Janine Guerin, Maddy Grayson, Michelle Alexander, Kaily Grabemann, Emma Withrow, Ericka Morris, Suzette O’Connor, Fiona Grunwald, Kelly Love, Sage Peterson, Mackenzie Clark, Carrie Sheffield and Bash Kazi.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav … NYT’s Sarah Kliff … Stuart Eizenstat of Covington and Burling … Deesha Dyer … CNN’s Jeremy Diamond … Lorraine Voles … Shayna Greene … Mark Penn of the Stagwell Group … Dan Scavino … The New Yorker’s Jon Lee Anderson … Amanda Sloat … Invenergy’s Andrew Wills … Scott Hall … Jaymi Light of SAS … Jason Larrabee … Jeff Carroll of Capitol Counsel … Joe Fuld … Ben Shapiro … Mike Hoffman … Rebecca Haller … Jonny Hiler of Miller Strategies … Katherine LaBeau … Mina Hite … Katie Wood of Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) office … Wesley Morgan … WaPo’s Aaron Gregg … Chuck Babington … Scott Stanzel of Truist … George Sifakis … Airbnb’s Christopher Nulty … Toni Verstandig … Janet Katowitz of Sage Media … former Hawaii Gov. David Ige … Andrew Dell’Orto

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