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Archives for October 2013

Scaling Back SNAP Benefits

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Obviously, as the economy improves, stimulus that was designed to get us out of a caving, crashing recession will have to be scaled back. And of course the things that were set to expire are going to expire, especially with a House of Representatives dead set on anything decent for the Republic. So I guess nobody should be surprised that the expanded SNAP benefits are going to be back to what they were before the stimulus starting tomorrow.

Extra funding for the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, one of the most impactful elements of the 2009 economic stimulus, expires Friday, meaning poor families in all 50 states will immediately see steep cuts in government food aid.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided a 13.6 percent funding increase to SNAP recipients beginning in April 2009, money the bill’s backers said would make its way quickly into the economy. But that extra funding ends Nov. 1. Every one of the 48 million SNAP recipients will see their benefits cut in their next checks.

Given the need, it seems early from a purely moral standpoint. The top earners are recovering nicely, and good for them and all, but the need for SNAP for people who aren’t earning that is still there.

SNAP benefits disproportionately help families with children. More than 21 million children — one in four children in the country today — live in households that participate in the program. More than two-thirds of the $5 billion the government saves will come from households that include children.

But instead of recognizing that the need is real, and that we should do more, we have a House of Representatives that last month voted for major cuts to the program. The GOP in the last election cycle ran candidate for President who doesn’t believe people are entitled to food, and they’re living up to that even though he lost.

Open Thread 10/31

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– Happy Halloween

– Nevada Republican would allow slavery

– The Chamber of Commerce is the worst.

– One of the biggest challenges to gender parity in office is that women don’t run. According to a national study by the Center for American Women in Politics, women are much more likely to run if they’re recruited by others. Men don’t wait to be asked. (Trib link)

– I’m all for environmentalists working to make broad coalitions, but I’m not sure corporate interests and reactionaries will stop mocking them needlessly.

– Your guide to celebrating Dia de los Muertos

Now Web Polls Are Data?

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Representative Dan Kristiansen — who convinced a group of humans to elect him on multiple occasions and everything — has a post about a web poll he conducted earlier. My most fervent hope is that he finds a way to start it off that seems like it’s reaching too hard to have a catchy intro but ends up kind of creepy.

Last week, you allowed me into your homes and/or mobile devices to offer a short survey [the link to you’ve completed the survey is his — Carl] on a proposed transportation revenue package. The response was great and very informative for me. I wanted to share some of the results of this virtual listening tour. While the survey remains open and I will continue to request public input, below is an update on where results stand as of October 29.

So a few questions: “You allowed me into your homes and/or mobile devices,” huh? You’re going with that? What if people didn’t think they were letting him into their homes, but just taking a simple web survey? What if someone took it on a laptop but not at home? Does he need to specify and/or? Really wouldn’t “thanks for taking a minute to complete my survey, if you did” work just fine?

Also, “the results of this virtual listening tour” is an interesting way of saying “the results of a poll of people who were on a Republican’s email list and/or found their way to the state House GOP website.” Anyway, on to the results.

Would you be willing to pay 10 cents or more per gallon of gas to pay for transportation projects around the state?

  • 13.4% Yes
  • 85.6% No
  • 1% I’m not sure

If you had to pay 10 cents or more per gallon of gas, how would this impact you financially?

  • 7.7% It would have little to no impact on me financially
  • 41.2% It would have a moderate impact on me financially, but I could probably afford it
  • 51.1% It would have a negative impact on me financially and I cannot afford it

Gosh, it sounds like the people who answered this survey really are a representative sample… of the people who took the survey. Or maybe they’re demanding price controls on gas? That would be an interesting follow up question. To the extent that’s possible when you’re talking about the results of a web poll. Also, his district is pretty close to the I-5 bridge that collapsed. Maybe he could have asked a question about if that had more or less impact than a 10 cent a gallon tax increase. But I guess we’ll never know because we can only ever look at the cost of taxes, not the cost of losing what those taxes pay for. The closest we get is the next question:

If our state moves forward with a transportation revenue package, please rank what you think the funding priorities should be:

The numbers below are rating averages. The lower the number, the higher prioritization participants gave that particular issue. As you will see below, participants believe “Maintenance, including bridge and road preservation” should be the state’s top funding priority. And they believe that “More pedestrian and bicycle paths” should be the lowest priority of the six options.

  • 1.55 Maintenance, including bridge and road preservation
  • 2.24 New lanes for congested roadways
  • 3.53 Large projects
  • 4.08 Washington State Ferries
  • 4.52 Transit agencies
  • 5.08 More pedestrian and bicycle paths

Does he mean sidewalks instead of “pedestrian”? Just general pedestrian, like paying someone to walk more? Is it infrastructure, and/or paths, that pedestrians and bikes have to share?

I-517 Polling Poorly

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Just to tack on to what Darryl wrote last night, as this blog will testify, Tim Eyman is just unpopular. Oh sure, people like tax cuts and don’t like red light cameras, so when the focus is off Tim Eyman and on those things, he can win some elections. But he’s also an embarrassment who has cost the state so much.

And of course the actual issues are also not on Eyman’s side. People don’t particularly want signature gathering everywhere, or all the time. I’ve done signature gathering for various things, and people are mostly cool about it, but it is taking some of their time. Making that more intrusive and for a longer amount of time can be a problem.

Poll analysis: I-517 faultering

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Initiative 517 is the latest from Tim Eyman’s long line of mostly unsuccessful initiatives. I-517 would lengthen the signature gathering time for initiatives, would give signature gatherers intrusive access to the public, even on private property, and severely restrict free speech in the vicinity of signature gatherers. Essentially, it would make Mr. Eyman’s life a lot easier.

So howz it doin’? A new Moore poll finds:

With just over a week to go before the November 5th general election, Washington’s Initiative 517, which concerns the initiative and referendum process in the state, is opposed by a narrow margin. After hearing the ballot question, 33% of voters plan to or have already voted “yes,” while 40% plan to or have voted “no.” The remaining 27% are undecided or wouldn’t reveal their vote.

Importantly, intensity is stronger on the “no” side – among those who have yet to cast their ballots, 21% say they are a “definite” no vote, while only 11% are a definite “yes” vote.

It sounds bad for I-517. But as SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly cautions:

Eyman initiatives tend to run better AT the polls than in the polls. The results on election day have sometimes surprised those who have predicted his demise. And, win or lose, Eyman is usually back with more measures as soon as the votes have been counted.

Something else to consider is the sample size of this poll. Even though the poll (conducted from 23-24 Oct) sampled 500 people, only 365 expressed a Yes or No preference. This is a pretty small sample. Using only those 365 individuals, 200 who said, “No” and 165 who said “Yes”, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability that I-517 would win right now. From a million simulated elections, “Yes” won 94,839 and “No” won 898,738 times.

The analysis suggests that the initiative has only a 9.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of votes from the simulation:

Moore-28Oct

Considering these “non-significant” statistical results (which are only based on the poll numbers) and Joel’s caution, I-517 opponents still have plenty of work to do; proponents still have a shot at changing the outcome.

The momentum is on the side of the opponents, however. The subsample of those polled who had already voted “Yes” or “No” on the initiative (104 people), I-517 was losing 37% “Yes” to 63% “No”. (Note that I’ve eliminated the “Don’t Know/Refused” category in those numbers.)

The trend in polling also suggests that I-517 is going down. An Elway poll, taken way back in early September, found 58% supporting and 22% opposed to the initiative. Another Elway poll from mid-October cut into the support with 52% supporting and 25% opposing the measure.

So, the most recent poll suggests a pretty impressive turn-around in support.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us this evening for some pre-election politics over a pint at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out another DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Friday, the Enumclaw chapter . And next Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 210 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Open Thread 10/29

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– A grand bargain is probably a bad idea politically as well as on policy grounds.

– If any of the attorneys have any opinion on the judge who was admonished for not wanting to perform same sex marriages, I’d like to hear it.

– Lindsey Graham is pretty terrible. Doy.

– The deadline for early applications for The Institute of a Democratic Future is coming up. I haven’t done the program, but for everyone I know who did, it has been a positive experience.

– Oh no Canada

– The of course teens should have access to condoms argument isn’t new ground, but Lindy West makes the argument about as humorously as anyone will.

– This Halloween, you could be sexy capitalism.

West Coast Carbon Action Plan

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When I first heard what the West Coast governors (CA, OR, WA, & BC) were going to get together to kick climate change’s ass, um more or less, I was pretty excited. I’m not sure we came away with all that much, but maybe.

Through the Action Plan, the leaders agreed that all four jurisdictions will account for the costs of carbon pollution and that, where appropriate and feasible, link programs to create consistency and predictability across the region of 53 million people. The leaders also committed to adopting and maintaining low carbon fuel standards in each jurisdiction. In a joint statement, the leaders committed to “meaningful coordination and linkage between states and provinces across North America.”

“This Action Plan represents the best of what Pacific Coast governments are already doing, and calls on each of us to do more—together—to create jobs by leading in the clean energy economy, and to meet our moral obligation to future generations,” said Governor Inslee. “Each of the governments here is already taking bold steps on climate change; by joining forces, we will accomplish even more,” Inslee said.

[…]

Under the Action Plan, California and British Columbia will maintain their existing carbon pricing programs along with their respective clean fuel standards, while Oregon and Washington have committed to moving forward on a suite of similar policies. The leaders further agreed to harmonize their 2050 greenhouse gas emission targets and develop mid-term targets where needed to set a path toward long-term reductions.

I don’t want to downplay it, exactly. It’s certainly better than not having an action plan. But I’m not sure that this is going to amount to much in the end. I don’t know how much Washington can do with our jackass legislature. And it’s great that British Columbia and California are committed to doing something, but that something seems to be what they were already doing.

Open Thread 10/28

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– On Friday I had a piece making fun of The Seattle Times for a guest editorial they had poo pooing these kids today in downtown Seattle. But apparently, there are kids today in downtown Olympia too. Horror!

– The new health care law is more than just a website. And people are actually getting insurance.

– The Cruelty of “Medical Necessity”

– RIP Lou Reed

– Just re-read this short bit by Cortazar over the weekend, and you should too.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Emily Heil: What it will take to get more women to Washington?

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

Jon does an America apology tour.

ObamaCareWebGlitchyFail Derangement Syndrome:

Inquiring Minds podcast: Science of Tea Party wrath (via Mother Jones.

Maddow: North Carolina GOP having some trouble with their minority outreach program (via Crooks and Liars).

Jon analyzes CNBC’s outrage over JPMorgan Chase ‘shakedown’.

Ann Telnaes: Obama drones.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Daily Show: Sexy Halloween costumes.

The Party of the Stupid

Mental Floss: 28 sweet facts about candy.

Thom: How America could be the happiest country on earth.

Ed: Dick Cheney has the audacity to criticize Obama for “premature” announcement of bin Laden’s death:

Stephen with the word Philantrophy (via Crooks and Liars).

Ann Telnaes: One bad heart away from the presidency.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

Bill Maher with some New Rules (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Downtown is Pretty Rad

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Dominic Holden has a link to this piece of shit article in The Seattle Times. Basically, someone moved Downtown recently after being the president of Seattle Pacific and living on campus for almost two decades. They then decided that Downtown is in decline. From what, I’m not really sure since they lived on a college campus down by the Ship Canal for 17 years. It’s overwrought and horrible.

I mean I moved downtown 6 years or so ago, and I had a bit of a culture shock too, but I’m always a bit surprised about things like this:

As my wife and I walk the streets from our new home, we spot the drug deals in the shadows of reeking alleys. We see the vacant eyes of the mentally disturbed, helpless folks dumped on our streets. We see the ravages of addiction sprawled on our sidewalks.

We navigate our way uncomfortably among teenagers who occupy Westlake Park, hanging out with their pit bulls, backpacks and skateboards, lately with their babies, freely smoking their now-legal marijuana. With utter dismay we read the stories of random violence.

I don’t care how Jesus-y SPU is, if you lived on a campus for over a decade and a half, you’re not allowed to be surprised by marijuana use somewhere. Seriously, what the fuck is he comparing it to? I mean I’ve lived in the suburbs and shock, there’s drug use and babies existed (?!) there too. People have troubles (and babies???) no matter where you go, sometimes.

But Downtown is great. I’m glad that I can pick up a Real Change as well as shop at Pike Place (although there are Real Change vendors in the suburbs, I’ve seen them with my own two eyes and everything). The crush of humanity — all sorts of humanity — is what makes cities great.

Westlake Park, to take his example, is a place where there’s too much drug dealing, I agree! But I’ve also taken a book or a paper and just read. There’s a playground where kids and parents are able to go, and it still manages to work even though sometimes people near by are smoking a joint. You can catch a bus, and usually not be hassled. Downtown doesn’t lose its vibrancy because there are all sorts of people there, that’s what makes it vibrant.

Farm Bill

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Joel Connelly has a great piece on the Farm Bill, and what the House GOP’s failure to pass it means for Washington.

The defining program for American agriculture expired on Sept. 30. It should have been renewed by Congress last year. The Senate passed a bipartisan bill by a 68-32 vote earlier this year. The House Agriculture Committee cooperated and produced a bill. But it was stalled by a revolt in the House Republican Caucus by members demanding deep cuts in food stamps.

“Those are the same people who wanted to shut down the government,” Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., said in disgust Thursday.

Cantwell and Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., who sits on the House Agriculture Committee, held a briefing in a cold Seattle warehouse to discuss the consequences.

I am struck again and again with the cruelty of the GOP position. The fact that they’re willing to sacrifice so much so that they can, what, harm people on Food Stamps? It’s so far away from the ideal that we’re all in this together.

Primary

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I’m generally of the belief that primary challenges are good for the side that makes them. There’s free media, and by virtue of who usually issues a challenge, when the incumbent survives, they can point to it in the general and say how they’re not extreme like those people over there. Over at Blue Oregon, Kari Chisholm has a piece on a brand-new primary challenge to the Eastern Oregon Republican representative.

As I said last month when this challenge started to materialize, stranger things have happened. Walden’s got farmers mad at him for failing to pass a Farm Bill. Walden’s got the Club for Growth mad at him for supporting higher spending in the stimulus. And now, he’s surely got Wall Street mad at him for voting in favor of default.

Sure. If this is a chance to highlight how bad he’s been, by all means people should use it. And of course if the possibility helps attract a good Democrat who can actually put up a challenge, even better.

C’mon folks, let’s do a little crowd-sourced brainstorming. Who are plausible Democratic candidates for Congress in OR-2?

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