Local Council By-Elections: 2023 in Aggregate

419,300 votes were cast over 209 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place. Please note some by-elections were for newly created or previously uncontested seats, so seats gained/lost will not tally. Likewise, some contests were for double vacancies. For comparison you can view last year's results here.

* There were nine by-elections in Scotland
** There were 11 by-elections in Wales
*** There were 23 contests with Independent clashes
**** See the quarterly round ups for the results from smaller parties

It's customary around these parts to do an end-of-year round up of forecasts made during the year, and looking at these result two that have been consistently made over a series of posts are being borne out. You don't need me to tell you there's zero enthusiasm for Keir Starmer in real world land, and so it has proved. The numbers have dropped on 2022, dipping beneath even 2021's vote haul. A year which was by no means a good year for the party. Worth noting the seven net gains registered here were entirely from the first quarter.

The second is as Labour continues to disappoint, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens pick up the slack instead. The yellow party's performance has only improved as the year has worn on, and party big wigs have got to be expecting a relatively handsome take when the general election lands seeing as almost all of them come at the Tories' expense. The rise of the Greens continues as well, performing better in by-elections than Labour. It also matched the seats gained last year and has improved its votes share by over two points, despite only standing nine more candidates. The move to the Greens is real.

Not that this will cause the Labour leadership any headaches yet, but - as if it needs saying again - its dearth of genuine support will cause them problems when they enter government, and the Greens and Lib Dems are very well placed to capitalise on the electoral fall out.

The main loser this year is hardly a shocker. If there's a consolation for the Tories it's that they didn't lose quite as many by-elections this year and therefore councillors. Notwithstanding the utter massacre in May where their losses amounted to over 1,000 seats. But their vote is plunging and tells of the crisis in support among the layers the Tories need to win again. Bearing in mind older people are likelier to trek to the polls for council by-elections and the huge advantage the party has built up among this layer, to find them trailing Labour all year and, on occasion, the Lib Dems is suggestive of real trouble. It couldn't happen to a nicer party.

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Quarter Four By-Election Results 2023

This quarter 83,859 votes were cast in 55 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 16 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter three's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q3	+/- Q4 2022	Average	+/- Seats
Conservative	53	20,305	24.2%	-3.3	-4.3	383	-7
Labour	48	20,902	24.9%	-5.6	-5.8	435	+2
LibDem	48	20,420	24.4%	+5.0	+9.2	425	+9
Green	37	9,679	11.5%	+1.8	+3.0	262	+1
SNP*	2	1,205	1.4%	-0.6	-3.6	603	-1
PC**	1	201	0.2%	-0.4	-0.1	201	0
Ind***	39	6,671	8.0%	+0.9	-2.7	171	-3
Other****	23	4,476	5.3%	+3.2	+4.3	195	-1

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were four by-elections in Wales
*** There were 10 Independent clashes
**** Others consisted of Alba (66), British Unionist Party (96), Coventry Citizens (107), Farnworth and Kearsley First (1,081), Freedom Alliance (7), Molesley Residents' Association (523), Monster Raving Loony (20), People Against Bureaucracy (644), Reform (58, 82, 121, 101, 98, 29, 36), Residents for Guildford and Villages (1,095), SPGB (9), TUSC (144, 37), UKIP (24, 25), Yorkshire Party (38, 35)

It's a three horse race! For once, the famed Liberal Democrat device would accurately describe the outcome of this quarter's popular vote. The Lib Dems have cleaned up in seat terms, but Labour just about edge it in raw votes cast. The Tories come in a close third but, fun fact, I believe this is the first time they have done so in a quarterly round up. The shape of things just around the corner, one hopes. Labour and the Greens will be happy to have finished the quarter and the year with net gains, and the Greens' ll.5% is a solid result from which to build.

As we build up to the general election, which will probably be the Spring but Autumn can't be ruled out, might we start seeing the Tory vote firm up as its support realise protest voting this close to the contest is pointless. Or will by-elections continue to register the seeping away of the Conservatives' lifeblood in local government?

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Local Council By-Elections December 2023

This month saw 20,444 votes cast in 14 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Only three council seats changed hands. For comparison with November's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Nov	+/- Dec 22	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	15	7,035	34.4%	+15.0	+3.2	469	-3
Labour	14	3,219	15.7%	-11.7	-12.8	230	0
Lib Dem	14	8,363	40.9%	+22.7	+27.5	597	+3
Green	11	1,331	6.5%	-4.0	-0.5	121	0
SNP*	0						0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	4	460	2.3%	-12.4	-8.9	114	0
Other****	1	36	0.2%	-5.9	-0.3	36	0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted solely of Reform (36)

There isn't a great deal to say about this month's crop of contests. As noted in the November write up, December was destined to be a Tory/Liberal Democrat clash and so it proved. Labour came in a distant third and the Lib Dems have triumphed with a three seat haul and, if memory serves, their highest share of the popular vote ever. Does it mean much? Not really. The results are reiterating the re-emergence of the Lib Dems as the protest party of choice for disgruntled Tory voters. Whether this carries through into a general election scenario is something we will find out next year.

For once, January is offering an embarrassment of riches where the number of contests are concerned. Normally the slowest month on the by-election calendar, we can look forward to 11 of them.

7th December
Bromley, Hayes & Coney Hall, Con hold
Denbighshire, Rhyl South West, Lab hold
Hertfordshire, Harpenden Rural, LDem gain from Con
North Norfolk, Briston, LDem hold
St Albans, Sandridge & Wheathampstead, LDem hold

14th December
Cotswold, Lechlade, Kempsford & Fairford South, LDem hold
North Kesteven, Billinghay Rural, LDem gain from Con
Rugby, Dunsmore, LDem gain from Con, Con hold
Swale, Abbey, LDem hold
Three Rivers, Chorleywood South & Maple Cross, LDem hold
Warwickshire, Dunsmore & Leam Valley, Con hold

21st December
Blaby, Glen Parva, LDem hold
Isle of Wight, Ventnor & St Lawrence, Con hold
Leicestershire, Blaby & Glen Parva, LDem hold

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This Here Blog

It's been a quiet time in this corner of the internet lately. The continuous stream of posts have stopped. The rapid succession of takes on the latest Tory traumas, or the slippery emptiness of Starmerism have not arrived with their customary rapidity. And there's a very simple reason for it. I cannot write at the pace that has sustained this place for most of its existence any more. It's not only tiring having to wade through the same politics bullshit day after day and then spend a couple of hours most evenings fashioning something coherent to say. It's trying, and I've had more than enough of my fill.

This site started out as a few musings about the experience of doing a PhD, and quickly moved into offering commentary on politics and culture from a critically-minded Trot point of view. The blog built a following during the fag end of the Blair/Brown years, and after an 18 month hiatus came back as a soft left partisan of Labour loyalism. And it stayed that way until experiencing the pathetic, treacherous politics of the Labour right while reading (well after publication) Hardt and Negri's Empire trilogy. These effectively re-radicalised me and gave my writing an energy and a clear sightedness that saw me all the way through to the beginning of this year. It was then the compulsion to keep going started fading, as hinted at previously. And sadly, as the year comes to a close I've reluctantly concluded I don't have the energy to maintain this as I have. Other things need attention, like finding the head space for the work projects on my plate, thinking about the research I want to do, keeping up with sociology of power/politics literature, and finding time for living a life and doing other things.

Now what? It's probably going to return to what it meant to be in the first place - an occasional sounding board. A place for jottings, a place for pinning up pieces published elsewhere, a place for rarer longer screeds not immediately about politics and, yes, a place again for regular posting if the mood occasions and situation demands. We're now entering the long afternoon of the blog's existence, and one led at a leisurely pace. I'm not shutting up shop. The blog isn't going into retirement. But it will spend more time reclining on the sun lounger taking in a good book, occasionally casting an eye over the scene, and muttering to anyone who'll listen about the poolside goings-ons.