The Cedar Lounge Revolution

The view from the UK, from Guardian media… February 29, 2016

If Fianna Fáil’s refusal to die is one part of the story, another is the continuing fragmentation of the old party system. The combined first-preference vote of the two great civil war factions has fallen below 50% for the first time, with the other half of all votes splintering between Sinn Féin, which emerges stronger, a shrivelled Labour party, independents, radical leftists and other groupings. Unlike in Britain, where the slump was not as severe, and much more like in Spain and Portugal, similarly stricken peripheries of the eurozone, the latest election has not necessarily settled who governs. A rerun may be required. Irish voters have revealed what they are against, not what they are for. And Ireland’s rulers have learned that if you preside over enough suffering for long enough, the people will make you suffer in turn.

Those last few recounts… February 29, 2016

Dublin Bay North. Key in terms of the LP. As of this evening… no, I won’t jinx it. There’s info here.

Dublin South Central. Another key one for AAA-PBP. Can anyone see them not taking the seat? Again, I’m afraid to jinx it.

Wexford – gone FG not SF. Speaking of SF, can I with my apparently crypto-Provo hat on say a good word for Donegal North East TD Pádraig MacLochlainn. If ever there was a political Sophie’s choice it was that between him and Tom Pringle. Two very fine people.

Dublin South West, predictions?

Longford Westmeath?

And are we into tomorrow? Surely not.

Did the Far Left outpoll Labour? February 29, 2016

Doing some sums……
WP 3242
WUAG 7452
AAA-PBP 84,168
CPI 185

Then how to tell if an Independent is Left or not….. well I know Right2Change is flawed but if an Independent had signed up to it I figured that they were Left and most such as Bernie Hughes, Declan Bree, Cieran Perry have form as being Far Left.
Ind Right2Change 23,395
This includes Broughan, Daly, Martin, Collins and Wallace
Ind4change 31365 (-Wallace = 23448)
just to avoid any confusion I’ve taken Wallaces vote out….

Which gives a total of 141,890 …… as opposed to Labours 140,898 .

The parties holding something back this election in order to contest another soon? February 29, 2016

A most interesting observation was made to me about the election campaign. Someone suggested that the parties held some of their resources back in case of a second election this year or early next. Certainly it struck me that FF’s spend seemed muted in many parts – Dublin Central for one, but elsewhere too. War chests are, after all, limited. Anyone see any evidence of same?

The lesson from the election to the main parties? It’s up to you to sort out the mess. February 29, 2016

That surely is incontrovertible. A situation where the former establishment parties are the only ones who can form a government and only in tandem with one another would seem to be the message sent from a far from grateful electorate. Whether the noises hinting at that can arrive at some arrangement remains to be seen. The pull of the two and a half system is still huge as noted here recently.

Election 2016 – Day Three and the conclusion of the Count, we hope – Open Thread February 29, 2016

And so it continues. We should know by today!

Cheering news… February 28, 2016

…this from RTÉ: But I particularly like the reference to Renua two thirds of the way down the following quote. It sort of sums it up perfectly.

The Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group have five TDs so far but they too have a good chance of making it to seven.

Candidates Bríd Smith in Dublin South Central, where a recount is underway, and John Lyons in Dublin Bay North are both strongly in contention.

The Green Party has won two seats in the 32nd Dáil after Eamon Ryan was elected in Dublin Bay South. He joins Catherine Martin who won her seat yesterday in Dublin Rathdown.

Social Democrats have taken three seats while Renua Ireland

Independents are making big gains and 15 have been returned to the Dáil so far along with four from the Independence Alliance.

I don’t think that’s the problem with Labour… February 28, 2016

…or at least not the only one. As reported from the scene of Alan Kelly’s… ahem… victory:

Across the hall, an elderly Labour party activist reflected ruefully on a bad campaign he said was primarily the result of some bad decisions by the party itself. “They should have picked Alan as leader two years ago. They should never have gone in with Fine Gael in 2011. And Ruairí­ Quinn should not have let in Democratic Left,” said the lifelong activist, who asked not to be named. He also blamed Phil Hogan for his Irish Water debacle and pointed to the election date as a problem. “Hardly any outgoing Government has won an election in February,” he remarked.

That SF vote… February 28, 2016

Matt Cooper in the SBP during the campaign asked an interesting question, what if people don’t care about what he terms ’SF’s violent past’? He tried to contextualise this with FF’s problems in relation to Ahern and dig-outs, and noted that for all that ‘it did not inhibit his return to power in 2007’.

And now we see with the more than partial rehabilitation of FF – and I am very much looking forward to seeing the overall vote share, well not very much looking forward, indeed not at all, but I’m curious – that the past and the present can be two very different places politically.

And he argues:

‘The ’Slab’ Murphy connection has some potential to damage SF in the coming weeks, most especially when he is sentence but the Central Criminal Court on February 26, election day.

Or will it? Is it possible that the portion of the electorate already inclined towards voting for SF simply won’t care, regarding it all as irrelevant to the issues about which they care?’

I’m tending to the view that most of those who will vote for SF will do so regardless, and those who won’t won’t. I think there’s a softer ground out there of people who will be more rather than less likely to vote SF once Adams takes a less prominent role, but that softer ground is of variable and difficult to determine expanse and therefore as it stands it may not be hugely to the party’s benefit to bid him farewell just yet.

But it is clear that even though it is now moving towards a quarter of a century since the cessations there is no will to shift too far beyond a discourse in relation to SF which is one typified by hostility. I was surprised how Adams on the TV3 debate didn’t push back more strongly against M. Martin’s line on knee-cappings and so on, not least by pointing out that it was Martin’s own government and own former leader, which forged ahead with talks that brought about a situation where such events are now in the past, and that he himself and others with FF and others had taken considerable steps precisely in order to ensure that. It would also have been handy to make the point that some sort of post-conflict commission was a necessity precisely to engage with this and give people their voice.

Again, the polls do not suggest that the debate changed things an iota (or if they did it was perhaps to afford SF slightly greater support). The decline in the SF vote during the campaign I’d hazard was more about the softness of the headline vote and a retreat to a core. But a core that has put on considerable percentage points since 2011.