NFL
You learn something new every day; what did you learn today? Submit interesting and specific facts about something that you just found out here.
With Hill truly being arguably the biggest game breaker/cheat code at WR in today's NFL. How many WRs go before him if you were drafting a franchise WR? Jerry Rice, Calvin Johnson and Moss go before him. But how far down the board does he realistically slide? Is it just recency bias that I'm thinking he would go top 10 if not top 5?
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Like what team is generally respected as nice, full of good people, and genuinely seems to have the friendliest players, staff, and owners? Maybe even fans?
Let’s ideally discuss players that aren’t much in the 1st round spotlight for this coming draft.
I’ve scouted roughly 25 players so far and I really like what I’ve seen from Tory Horton out of Colorado State. Good size, speed and production.
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Grabbed the short yardage(3 yards or less) splits for all 32 teams in hopes of seeing some correlation between play type and 1st down success. Honestly there wasn't very much correlation at all outside a few control stats. The boring conclusion was that essentially, good offenses use their best weapon to pick up first downs, while good defenses stop first down success regardless of play type or distance.
That doesn't mean it was a complete waste of time as their are plenty of interesting tidbits to find in the data. I broke it down to Short Yardage on Any Down & Short Yardage on 3rd or 4th Down.
Short Yardage On Any Down
Philadelphia is #1 in short yardage 1st down % on any down(39.1%), and in 3rd/4th down situations(66.2%). They are also dead last in defensive first down prevention on 3rd & 4th down giving up a first down 67.7% of the time.
For offense any down first down%, San Fran is second at 35.9%, Baltimore 3rd a 35.8%. The Giants(24.1%) and Jets(23.7%) bring up the rear.
On defense any down first down%, Cleveland(20.3%) & New Orleans(20.5%) are clearly the best with Washington the surprise 3rd place team at a distant(26.6%). Las Vegas(35.7%) and Arizona(36.7%) give up the most first downs defensively on any down.
Short Yardage on 3rd and/or 4th down
On offense Philadelphia is 1st(66.2%), Green Bay(64.1%) and Buffalo(59.7%) have the highest 3rd/4th down first down%. At the bottom are the Giants(35%) and Jets(31.3%).
Defensively, New Orleans(29%) & Cleveland (33%) flip the #1 & #2 spots, New England & Tennessee tie for 3rd(40.7%). As noted, The Eagles bring up the rear(67.7%), with Arizona(60%) & San Francisco(57.6%) also struggling to stop 3rd/4th down short yardage attempts.
If you would like to read about correlation between 1st down% stats here is the link:
NFL 2023 - Short Yardage Offense & Defense Rankings
https://preview.redd.it/nfl-2023-short-yardage-offense-defense-v0-1hz50qeoma5c1.png?width=1568&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdebef58bb63558abd3891962e85d9d45d5c44c6
https://preview.redd.it/nfl-2023-short-yardage-offense-defense-v0-5u2v1o2rma5c1.png?width=1827&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d650b9dbf81d61814016d81da622ce638b5df2d
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MVP: Tyreek Hill
OPOTY: Christian McCaffrey
DPOTY: TJ Watt
OROTY: CJ Stroud
DROTY: Byron Young
CPOTY: Matthew Stafford
COTY: Shane Steichen
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Era adjusted stats are a pro-football reference product. More information below:
Explanation of the Advanced Passing table This is a quick look at how a quarterback did compared to league average in eight different passing stats: yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, completion percentage, passing TD percentage, interception percentage, and sack percentage.
First, for each stat for each year for each league, we computed two things:
the league average for that stat in that league during the three-year period with the given year in the middle. For example, the "league average" for the 1963 AFL would be the aggregate average of the stats accumulated in the AFL from 1962 to 1964. (NOTE: the 1960 AFL and the 1969 AFL, as well as the current season, will be based on only two years worth of data rather than three.)
the standard deviation of the stat for all individuals who had 14 or more pass attempts per scheduled game during the three-year period.
Next, we computed how many standard deviations away from the league average each player was in each of his seasons. We multiply that number by 15 and add it to 100, and that is the number you see.
Note: Seasons prior to 1966 excluded.
Rank | Cmp%+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 152 | Montana | 1989 |
2 | 149 | Starr | 1968 |
3 | 146 | Anderson | 1982 |
4 | 142 | Stabler | 1976 |
5 | 142 | Young | 1997 |
6 | 141 | Anderson | 1974 |
6 | 141 | Brees | 2018 |
8 | 139 | Brees | 2019 |
8 | 139 | Dawson | 1975 |
8 | 139 | Jurgensen | 1939 |
8 | 139 | Montana | 1987 |
8 | 139 | Young | 1996 |
117 | 123 | Purdy | 2023 |
Rank | Y/A+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 158 | Warner | 2000 |
2 | 155 | Purdy | 2023 |
3 | 152 | Chandler | 1998 |
4 | 148 | Fitzpatrick | 2018 |
4 | 148 | Ryan | 2016 |
6 | 147 | Esiason | 1988 |
6 | 147 | Foles | 2013 |
8 | 146 | Starr | 1968 |
9 | 145 | Montana | 1989 |
9 | 145 | Stabler | 1976 |
9 | 145 | Tannehill | 2019 |
9 | 145 | Young | 1991 |
Rank | AY/A+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 151 | Foles | 2013 |
2 | 150 | Purdy | 2023 |
2 | 150 | Rodgers | 2011 |
4 | 149 | Manning | 2004 |
5 | 147 | Staubach | 1971 |
6 | 145 | Montana | 1989 |
6 | 145 | Ryan | 2016 |
8 | 143 | Jones | 1976 |
8 | 143 | Young | 1994 |
10 | 142 | Brady | 2007 |
10 | 142 | Young | 1992 |
Rank | NY/A+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 158 | Warner | 2000 |
2 | 153 | Marino | 1984 |
3 | 148 | Purdy | 2023 |
4 | 147 | Fitzpatrick | 2018 |
4 | 147 | Manning | 2004 |
6 | 145 | Young | 1991 |
7 | 143 | Fouts | 1982 |
7 | 143 | Namath | 1972 |
7 | 143 | Stabler | 1976 |
10 | 142 | Fouts | 1983 |
10 | 142 | Ryan | 2016 |
10 | 142 | Rypien | 1991 |
Rank | ANY/A+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 153 | Manning | 2004 |
2 | 150 | Marino | 1984 |
3 | 147 | Rodgers | 2011 |
4 | 146 | Purdy | 2023 |
5 | 143 | Foles | 2013 |
6 | 142 | Brady | 2007 |
7 | 141 | Jones | 1976 |
7 | 141 | Montana | 1989 |
7 | 141 | Ryan | 2016 |
7 | 141 | Rypien | 1991 |
7 | 141 | Young | 1994 |
Rank | TD%+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 168 | Manning | 2004 |
2 | 153 | Brady | 2007 |
2 | 153 | Rodgers | 2011 |
4 | 148 | Marino | 1984 |
4 | 148 | Stabler | 1976 |
6 | 147 | Foles | 2013 |
6 | 147 | Young | 1994 |
8 | 146 | Rodgers | 2020 |
9 | 145 | Manning | 2013 |
9 | 145 | Roethlisberger | 2007 |
33 | 135 | Purdy | 2023 |
Rank | Rating+ | Player | Year |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 151 | Manning | 2004 |
2 | 149 | Montana | 1989 |
2 | 149 | Rodgers | 2011 |
4 | 148 | Brady | 2007 |
5 | 147 | Young | 1994 |
6 | 144 | Purdy | 2023 |
6 | 144 | Staubach | 1971 |
8 | 142 | Foles | 2013 |
8 | 142 | Young | 1992 |
10 | 141 | Marino | 1984 |
10 | 141 | Starr | 1968 |
Stat | Brock Purdy | Era-Adjusted Index | All-Time Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Cmp% | 70.2% | 123 | 117th |
Y/A | 9.6 | 155 | 2nd |
AY/A | 10.2 | 150 | 2nd |
NY/A | 8.60 | 148 | 3rd |
ANY/A | 9.14 | 146 | 4th |
TD% | 6.9% | 135 | 33rd |
Rating | 116.1 | 144 | 6th |
When adjusted for era, Purdy is having a top 3 season all time for Y/A, AY/A and NY/A in the Super Bowl era. He's also 4th in ANY/A and 6th in rating.
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