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Hello Fellow Meatballs,
You may remember me from my previous post, made just before the Vikings game in which Fields was injured (gulp, hopefully not jinxing him again), in which I detailed how I thought Justin Fields will be a better NFL QB than Caleb Williams. I think it was one of the most controversial posts of the year, judging by the amount of comments, upvotes, and downvotes I received. You can find it here:
I took a beating for the post at the time, but I stand by the analysis. You can see for yourself how Caleb’s season has played out at the collegiate level. After that, I took a long break from posting based on the Fields injury and the amount of hate I got for the analysis. But, I’ve been inspired to write another comparison, based on this thread, which pissed me off, from last week.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/187prd2/we_all_knew_the_coaching_was_bad_the_oline_was/
Guys, there are massive differences. Fields is so much better than Trubisky I nearly thought the post from last week was a joke. Let’s take a look at the two players across a few different categories to see how their performances and situations compare.
Physical Athleticism
Mitch is 6’2, 222 lbs, ran a 4.7 40, and has pretty decent NFL arm strength. Justin is 6’3, 227 lbs, ran a 4.4 40, and has one of the strongest arms in the league. He is a uniquely gifted runner. I would argue that there is only one active QB at the NFL level that even comes close to matching Fields’ athleticism, and that is Lamar Jackson. You could argue, at this stage of their respective careers, that Justin has surpassed Lamar in terms of running ability.
Mitch, while a nice runner, never ran away from defenses for 50+ yard long scores. Almost no NFL quarterback in NFL history has ever had the ability to do what Justin Fields can do physically. Even great NFL running backs cannot run away from defenses like Fields has shown he can do.
The list of QBs that have something close to what Justin has, for me, are Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, and Mike Vick. That’s it. That’s the list. Think of the amount of players who have come through the NFL that DON’T have those physical gifts. His athleticism is unique.
Arm Talent
The best part of Justin’s passing game, in his own words, is the deep ball. He is exceptional at throwing it. If you watch the tape, he rarely throws a contested deep pass. He only gives his guy a shot, erring on the side of an overthrow vs an underthrow that would put “The Ball” in danger.
In 8 games this year, he has completed the deep ball (throws of 20+ yards) at a 48.1% rate, putting him at # 7 in the league on the year. In 2021 he was at 40.4% (12th in the league) and in 22 he was at 33.3% (22nd, with no receiving talent around him and a run happy offense). Unfortunately, and we’ll get into this more later, but our gameplanning often ignores this strength. He ranks #28 in the league on deep ball attempts. With his deep ball accuracy, ignoring this strength seems like malpractice.
Mitch, on the other hand, really struggles throwing it deep. In 2019, his best year on long throws, he completed passes at a rate of 34.8%, just exceeding Fields worst year. In 2018 it was 29.6%, in 2020 it was 26.7%. Those numbers are all bottom half of the league, and not close to what Fields has shown he can do.
Even now, the issue has not gone away. Mitch is a bad deep ball passer. This is from NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/steelers-qb-mitchell-trubisky-i-m-going-to-be-aggressive-thursday-vs-patriots#:~:text=Trubisky%20has%20thrown%20deep%20on,25%20such%20attempts):
“Trubisky has thrown deep on 13.5% of his pass attempts since 2022 (4th-highest in the NFL, min. 200 attempts), per Next Gen Stats. Trubisky has a 25.1 passer rating on deep passes since 2022 (lowest in NFL, min. 25 such attempts). Trubisky on 20-plus air-yard passes (since 2022, min. 25 such attempts): 9/31 (29.0%), 280 yards, zero touchdowns, three interceptions, 25.1 passer rating (lowest). He's generated the most deep passes without a TD (since 2022): Trubisky (31), Sam Darnold (21), Bryce Young (17), Brent Rypien (16), Tyler Huntley (14).”
There are a lot of stats out there that show how much better Fields is with his arm than Mitch was, but to keep it simple, let’s refer to Derek Brown of FantasyPros (https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1732165232456286562). If we take out screen passes (Getsy’s favorite call) here is where Fields ranks on the year in some key passing metrics:
12th in ypa
10th in passer rating
12th in highly accurate rate
14th in adjusted completion rate
If we take out the first four games of the season, during which the coaches were running an offense suited to a 39 yo Aaron Rodgers and not the most dynamic young QB in the league, his numbers look like this:
6th in ypa
3rd in passer rating
5th in highly accurate throw rate
2nd in adjusted completion rate
Those are elite numbers guys. I love Mitch as a person and as a leader, but he could never dream of touching those numbers in any system.
The one area in which Mitch is a clear upgrade over Fields is in the number of sacks Fields takes and the number of fumbles he loses. If Justin is our QB of the future, those are the two most obvious areas of improvement Fields needs to clean up. I believe he will. As I talk about below, he's improved every year.
Team
Up until this year, Fields has arguably been in the worst situation in the NFL in terms of the team around him. Last year, by almost every metric, he had the worst defense in the NFL backing him up. His starting receivers, for a good portion of the year, were Pettis, St. Brown, Mooney (who was injured for five games) and Claypool for 7 games. His offensive line only really had Jones and Jenkins in terms of true NFL starting caliber talent. In 2021 he was dealing with the remains of the Pace era, and a lot of players (notably Robinson) were checked out and ready to move on. Moreover, when you pair Fields with another uniquely talented player (DJ Moore) that player's production pops. In terms of scheme, he forces defenses to make a decision. Do they double the uniquely talented guy outside or dedicate an extra defender to trying to stop the uniquely talented QB from carving them up for a 50 yard run. It's a no win situation for defenses. Even mid play, if Fields is scrambling, defensive backs need to respect his running ability, and sometimes leave Moore to try to stop Justin. With the right gameplan, you can't stop both. In 8 games with Fields, DJ has 792 yards for 6 touchdowns. Projected over 17 games, DJ would have 1683 yards and 13 touchdowns with Justin Fields as his quarterback. Both would be personal bests for him. His previous career highs were 1193 and 7 respectively.
Meanwhile, Trubisky had a historically good defense in 2018, his best year. They led the league in fewest points per game (17.7), takeaways (36), interceptions (27), interception return touchdowns (5), lowest opponent passer rating (72.9) and fewest rushing yards per game (80.0). He was throwing it to Robinson (most talented receiver we’d had since Marshall, until DJ Moore), Cohen, Burton, and Gabriel. In '20, the year he was benched for Foles, we had Robinson, Mooney, Miller, Graham, Kmet, Monty, and Cordarelle Patterson. That’s better receiving talent than Fields has ever had. And Mitch still played poorly enough, that season, to be benched.
Improvement/Regression
In spite of the situation around him, Fields has improved every year as the Bears quarterback. This is from Nov. 21st, so it is missing the most recent Vikings game, but here is how he looked through 7 games in 2023 vs. prior years. Notably, this of course includes the aforementioned disastrous gameplan that we had installed for weeks 1-4.
• Touchdown percentage: 6.5%* in 2023 after 5.3% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2021
• Yards per pass attempt: 7.4 in 2023 after 7.1 last year and 6.9 as a rookie
• Completion percentage: 62.7% in 2023 is his best. He had 60.4% in 2022 and 58.9% as a rookie.
• Passer rating: 93.3 in 2023 after 85.2 last year and 73.2 in 2021
• Fumble rate per play: .018 in 2021-22 (28 in 27 games), 0.12 in 2023 (five in seven games)
• Interception rate: 3.2% in 2023, after 3.5% last year and 3.7% as a rookie
• Sack percentage: Down now to 12.3% this year after 14.7% last year. In a different offense it was 11.8% as a rookie.
• Passing success rate: 40.3% in 2023 is his high. It was 36.7% as a rookie, 38.2% last year. A successful pass is deemed by statisticians as gaining 40% of yards needed for a first down on a first-down play, 60% of the yards needed to the sticks on second down and 100% on third or fourth down.
*6.5% leads the NFL.
From: https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/numbers-make-justin-fields-improvement-entirely-obvious
For an apples to apples comparison, here’s how Mitch was talked about after three years:
“Expectations were high for Trubisky and the Bears at the start of last season. He threw for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns and completed 66.6 percent of his passes in 14 starts in 2018, as the team won the NFC North with a 12-4 record.
However, the Bears' 2019 season didn't work out as planned in part because of Trubisky's regression. The 25-year-old threw for 3,138 yards and 17 touchdowns in 15 starts. His 39.5 QBR ranked 28th out of 30 qualified starters.”
As teams around the NFL have gotten more film and data on Fields, and he has played more and learned more about the position, he has gotten better and better. The opposite was true for Trubisky. The trend continued for Mitch—I think he is worse now than he’s ever been. I also expect the trend to continue for Justin—he’s just going to keep getting better.
Coaching
It really really really pains me to say this, but Matt Nagy was a better offensive coach for the Bears than the Flus/Getsy combo is. To be clear, I don’t think Nagy was a GOOD offensive coach, and he deserved to be fired. But he was better than what we have now.
In 2018, Mitch's best year, Nagy was one of the best at scheming successful plays, only to be failed by his QB https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-the-chicago-bears-are-right-to-move-on-from-mitchell-trubisky-but-nick-foles-cant-make-up-for-the-teams-defensive-deficiencies
Comparatively, in 2023, Fields best year, Justin rarely has open receivers, but is still successful despite those (I would argue schemed) offensive shortcomings.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/187klw3/a_look_at_the_average_separation_a_qbs_receivers/
If you’re still with me, I think you already have a sense of how I feel about the Getsy/Flus brain trust on the offensive side of the ball. I would argue that this is the big one—the true reason for all of our questions around Fields.
They don’t seem to know what to do with Justin, starting the year with an insane gameplan relative to his abilities, and frequently reverting back to the style of offense they know how to call vs an offense suited to his talents. Additionally, they frequently take the ball out of his hands, especially in late game situations, relying on running with backs and ball control rather than on the legs and arm of their playmaking quarterback. I know Getsy is the playcaller, but, and this is pure conjecture, I think the strategy is heavily influenced by Flus, who wants to control the clock and the ball above all else. I have another post in mind that would delve much more deeply into how this style of coaching has impacted our QB over the last two years, especially in end of game situations.
I will likely have that up tomorrow or Friday, depending on how we all feel about this one.
So there it is. In conclusion, Fields is better than the last guy we had. He's also going to be better, imo, than either of the QBs at the top of the board (see previous post). And, if we can get the coaching sorted out, and add another elite playmaker to the offense (looking at you MHJ) he's going to be one of the best players in the game. More to come on that soon.
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Happy Holidays, r/NFL! I hope everyone is doing well this wonderful Wednesday. Last week, I went 7-6 on my picks, bringing me to 126-66 on the season. How did everyone else do? We're down to the last week of byes, with two teams out and one less game to watch. We have six division games this week, with two inter-conference and seven cross-conference games lined up. We're also running two MNF games this week. Let's get to it!
Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun.
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Hear me out haha
I've been very vocal about how bad AG has been from a play calling and in game adjustments pov. 2 days ago I would have loved to see him fired
Then it hit me,
How we handled the progression and usage of Gibbs and Jamo. How we ran very vanilla sets and plays the first 6ish games (Monty between the tackles was 40% of our offense haha) How we always seem to have a guaranteed hitter up our sleeve with 3 mins left. How we always seem to get the stop we have to have with 3 mins left
I would bet money it's a conscious decision to not adjust from the original scheme of defense until we're in a spot where it's needed. This helps by not giving tape of different looks so they're unprepared for them in the big spots/games. It also generates way more momentum to win close games than blowing people out and getting cocky
I never doubted the Gibbs pick, I never turned on Jamo, I have never once questioned a BH or DC decision. Why the fuck did I turn on AG? I'm ashamed. We all should be. That smirk on AGs face at the presser isn't arrogance. He knows they executed the plan perfectly.
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With all the talk from last game about how bad Cole has been I felt it prudent to give a sneak peak into what I've got planned this offseason. I've been telling everyone and their mother that Cole is our biggest liability on the OL right now. KP doesn't handle pressure up the middle well and the poor snaps are drive killers because it puts KP behind the plays. Cole has been KP's worst nightmare. No excuse for KP though because he needs to play better regardless but it's still something to bring attention to that I feel is now being really looked at.
Below are the top 6 (according to PFF Rankings) Center prospects and their respective rankings in this class as well as some additional info regarding them. Appreciate everyone checking out the post. Let me know what you all think about the prospects.
Center Prospects
Jackson Powers-Johnson (PFF Rank 57), Oregon, Junior, 6'3" (41%) 320lbs (96%), Age: 20.1, PFF Grade: 84.6
- Played some center and both guard positions in '21, RG in '22 (350 snaps), and Center in '23 (829 snaps). Allowed: 0 sacks, 0 hits, 1 hurries. He's allowed 0 sacks over the last three years (1,355 snaps). JPJ pops out of his stance which allows him to get to the second level during run plays and allows him to put hands on second level defenders. He plays really well in the run game but pass pro can be a place to improve on. JPJ is a better mover going forward rather than backwards but does well to anchor and set a pocket. He struggles with high level counter moves. No real issues snapping the ball. HIGHLIGHTS
Zach Frazier (PFF Rank 93), West Virginia, Junior, 6'3" (41%) 310lbs (76%), Age: ?, PFF Grade: 73.2,
- Played Center for '21, '22, '23 (895, 882, 806 snaps respectively). Allowed: 0 sacks, 3 hits, 4 hurries in '23. He's allowed 4 sacks over the last 3 years (2,584 snaps). Underrated athlete who jumps out of his stance to win at the point of attack. Solid run blocker and a patient pass blocker. Able to get the the second level and land blocks on second level defenders. Needs to improve in functional strength and technique in pass protection. No real issues I saw with snapping the ball.
Sedrick Van Pran (PFF Rank 111), Georgia, Junior, 6'4" (63%) 310lbs (76%), Age: 22.1, PFF Grade: 79.4
- Played center for '21, '22. '23 (881, 972, 821 snaps respectively). Allowed: 0 sacks, 0 hits, 8 hurries in '23. He's allowed 1 sack over the last 3 years (2,674 snaps). A cerebral and coordinated athlete who has a mean disposition that fits the run game. Slightly athletically limited and might show up in pass protection or getting the the second level on run plays. No issues I saw with snapping the ball. Biggest Highlight
Seth McLaughlin (PFF Rank 129), Alabama, Senior, 6'4" 301lbs, Age: , PFF Grade: 60.9
- Played Center for '21, '22, '23 (354, 619, 784 snaps respectively). Allowed: 0 sacks, 4 hits, 8 hurries in 13 games for '23. Allowed 0 sacks over the last 3 years (1,757 snaps).
Beaux Limmer (PFF Rank 138), Arkansas, RS Senior, 6'5" (82%) 307lbs (65%), Age: 22.5 , PFF Grade: 74.1
- Played Center in '23 (776 snaps) and a little LG (33 snaps), played RG in '22 & '21 (794 & 884). Allowed: 4 sacks, 1 hit, 8 hurries in 12 games for '23. Allowed 9 sacks in the last 3 years (2,587 snaps). Large and strong player with natural athleticism who can get out of his stance quick and attack the point of attack. Struggles moving and utilizing his size in pass pro or in space but is a willing blocker in space.
Drake Nugent (PFF Rank 143), Michigan, Senior, 6'2" (21%) 301lbs (40%), Age: 22.9 , PFF Grade: 78.8
- Played Center in '21, '22, '23 (733, 822, 729 Snaps respectively). Allowed: 1 Sack, 1 hit, 6 Hurries, in 13 games for '23. Allowed 9 sacks in the last 3 years (2,284 snaps). Nasty demeanor that fits well with the run game and thrives in the screen game. High IQ player who handled protection calls at the LOS. Fundamentally sound but can improve in consistency and has slight limitations from his athleticism.
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my guess :
purdy (QB)
mccaffrey (RB)
juszczyk (FB)
kittle (TE)
aiyuk (WR)
williams (LT)
bosa (DE)
armstaed (DT)
warner (LB)
ward (CB)
that's 10 49ers which matches the 10 named from the 2013 49ers team who are the most recent 49ers team to have double digit amount of pro bowlers named from their roster
when comparing the 2023 49ers with previous 49ers teams with the most pro bowlers
1984 - 10
1994 - 10
1995 - 10
2013 - 10
2012 - 9
1993 - 9
2011 - 8
1992 - 8
1971 - 8
2022 - 7
1997 - 7
1966 - 7
1954 - 7
1953 - 7
i'm surprised the 1989 49ers who a lot would argue is the best 49ers team of all time and one of the best NFL teams of all time isn't on that list as that season they only had 6 pro bowlers
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Week 13 results
Most people picked the Jaguars who scored a respectable 31 points, the highest scoring team (Dolphins) was picked by 2, and scored 45 points. And 3 people were let down by the Charges, who scored only 6 points.
Top 3
Not a lot of changes at the top:
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u/DanOfBradford78 remains at the top with 415 points
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u/KuatoBaradaNikto grabs the #2 position with 392 points
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u/Tameyoshi close the top 3 with 389 points
Week 14 picks
Please remember that you cannot choose a team you already took in a previous week. You can subscribe to r/NFLScoringGame for reminders.
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