Local Council By-Elections November 2023

This month saw 36,965 votes cast in 26 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 10 council seats changed hands. For comparison with October's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Ocr	+/- Nov 22	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	23	7,178	19.4%	-3.6	-7.0	312	-1
Labour	20	10,115	27.4%	-1.2	-3.2	506	+2
Lib Dem	21	6,741	18.2%	-1.9	+5.7	321	+5
Green	16	3,886	10.5%	-6.4	+1.4	243	- 1
SNP*	2	1,205	3.3%	+3.3	-3.5	603	-1
PC**	1	201	0.5%	+0.5	+0.4	201	0
Ind***	32	5,387	14.7%	+11.6	+1.5	168	-3
Other****	13	2,252	6.1%	-2.2	+5.0	173	-1

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were eight Independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Alba (66), British Unionist Party (96), Farnworth and Kearsley First (1,081), Freedom Alliance (7), Molesley Residents' Association (523), Monster Raving Loony (20), Reform (58, 82, 121, 101), UKIP (24) Yorkshire Party (38, 35)

A low, low score for the Tories. A not terribly convincing percentage for Labour. And council seats changing hands as if they were going out of fashion. Yes, November was a curious month in council by-election land. But it's seats that matter the most and the Tories emerge just one down while Labour are up and the Liberal Democrats are racing ahead. A bit of a rare occasion to see the Greens come out with a net loss as well.

Distorting the percentages is the frankly ridiculous vote for the Independents. 32 candidates for 26 seats? We have to remember there were three contested City of London elections, where the convention is that parties (except Labour) tend not to enter the fray for boring reasons. But of interest among the results was the Green result in Camden - Keir Starmer's back yard. This seat, formerly held by Sian Berry who's now their candidate replacing Caroline Lucas, went from a marginal to a safe seat. A mix of local and national reasons is the word from the doors. As I've long argued, this is where the electoral discomfort will come from when Starmer enters office.

Next month is probably going to be a quiet one for Labour as the 15 seats that are up are nearly all Tory and Lib Dem defences.

2nd November
Argyll & Bute, South Kintyre, Ind hold
Buckinghamshire, Buckingham East, LDem gain from Con
City of London, Cripplegate, Lab gain from Ind
City of London, Langbourn, Ind hold
Elmbridge, Molesey East, LDem gain from Oth
Melton, Asfordby, Lab gain from Grn
Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East, Lab hold
Trafford, Bucklow St Martin's, Lab hold

9th November
Lewisham, Deptford, Lab hold
Lincolnshire, Grantham North, Con hold
Powys, Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower, LDem hold x2
South Holland, Spalding St Paul's, Con gain from Ind
South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfram's, Con hold

16th November
Bolton, Kearsley, Oth hold
Bolton, Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill, LDem gain from Con
Ceredigion, Aberystwyth Penparcau, PC hold
Doncaster, Rossington & Bawtry, Lab
North Lanarkshire, Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig, Lab gain from SNP
North Somerset, Wrington, Grn gain from Ind

22nd November
Powys, Talybont-on-Usk, LDem hold

23rd November
Cambridge, Queen Edith's, LDem gain from Ind
Newham, Plaistow North, Ind gain from Lab

30th November
Camden, Highgate, Grn hold
City of London, Farringdon Without, Oth hold (uncontested)
City of London, Portsoken, Ind hold
Durham, Dawdon, Lab hold
North Yorkshire, Sowerby & Topcliffe, LDem gain from Grn

Five Most Popular Posts in November

November is done! So here is the customary round up of the posts that attracted the numbers.

1. The Demise of Rosie Duffield
2. A Curious Case of Reluctant Authoritarianism
3. After Braverman's Bovver Boys
4. How Damaged is Keir Starmer?
5. Suella Braverman's Feeble Revenge

I suspected writing about Labour's best known transphobe would be a red rag to passing internet traffic, and so it proved. Rosie Duffield's actions have brought the party into disrepute many times, but so far her right wing politics and palling around with the bottom feeders of Britain's opinion columnists has protected her. But for how long? Does the investigation into her behaviour suggest Starmer's office have lost patience with her provocations? Coming in second was a quick consideration of the row surrounding Suella Braverman's efforts to ban Palestinian solidarity marches, while November's third-placed offering looks at the immediate aftermath of her exhorting into existence a far right mob that, predictably, descended into violence. In fourth was a look at whether Starmer sustained damage after the biggest front and back bench rebellion of his leadership over a ceasefire in Gaza. The resumption of the attacks following a "humanitarian pause" demonstrates the inadequacy and bankruptcy of their position. And lastly, following her overdue defenestration, we reviewed what was billed Braverman's blistering revenge on her former boss and found it all rather feeble, truth be told.

Thinking about which post deserves a second chance to shine, I've gone for this one on Dave's return to front line politics. What it doesn't consider is the change in tone his appointment has meant for foreign policy on Israel and Palestine, which is a point explored in Peter Oborne's latest on his strange resurrection of Tory Arabism. Worth a read.

Now we're into the Christmas month, past behaviour indicates a greater crop of posts incoming. I still want to write about the Greens' four-for-24 strategy, I've got something bubbling under on Socialist Appeal's "communist turn", and a few other things too. As ever, if you haven't already don't forget to follow the free newsletter, and if you like what I do (and you're not skint), you can help support the blog. Following me on Twitter and Facebook are cost-free ways of showing your backing for this corner of the internet.

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The Case Against Henry Kissinger

Christopher Hitchens was a contradictory character with some iffy politics, but among his best work were the attacks on the now late but very much lamented (by, among others, Tony Blair) Henry Kissinger. It's because this repugnant creature was never held to account for his crimes that today war crimes are committed with impunity by Netanyahu's government and the Israeli military. Who's going to hold them responsible for the needless death and destruction they have caused?

The Demise of Rosie Duffield

Oh dear. The Times reported on Sunday that Rosie Duffield is under investigation by the Labour Party and is no longer on the NEC's list of approved candidates for the next general election. This is despite her being reselected by her local party last year. The sticking point is her liking a tweet by notorious transphobe and obnoxious celebrity troll, Graham Linehan. Eddie Izzard, who's hoping to represent for Labour against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion, tweeted about how in Nazi Germany someone like him would have been murdered for who he was. Linehan responded with the line "Ah, yes, the Nazis, famously bigoted against straight white men with blonde hair." Anyone who knows anything about the Holocaust are well aware that hundreds of thousands of gay men and women perished in the death camps alongside Jews. "Liking" such a statement is, of course, grotesquely offensive and brings the party into disrepute.

Duffield has, since this occurred, been on the receiving end of an investigation by the party's compliance unit. According to her "friends and allies" - who were much hotter on the Holocaust when the politics of the occasion demanded it - this is all a put up job because of her "gender critical" beliefs. "They haven't been able to get her on trans issues" they whinge, "so they've gone for her on antisemitism". Quite who this "they" are, given how Keir Starmer completely controls the Labour Party apparatus and has capitulated time and again to the transphobia on his front and back benches, is a complete mystery. LGBT Labour who, despite being a right wing organisation are pretty sound on most LGBTQ issues - as you would expect - aren't exactly powerful nor listened to by the leadership. So who is doing the targeting, and why?

As far as Starmer's authoritarian project is concerned, now the left have either been chased out of the party or forced into a Trappist-like silence, it stands to reason to widen the offensive against imagined and would-be opponents and critics. We saw how, in early September, Starmer moved against two prominent women in his shadow cabinet. Better for him to surround himself with pod people lest they outshine the dear leader. We've also seen how Angela Rayner has systematically been sidelined and humiliated by Starmer's office and the apparat. It also makes sense to take out no mark right wingers, like Duffield, who can only give the party grief further down the line.

Starmer might not know politics, but he's employed people who do. Despite his many surrenders to the lobbying of the gender cops, they are not satisfied and they will keep open this line of attack on Labour as the party enters into government. When it encounters difficulties, as it surely will, would they rather suffer someone like Duffield who can open lines of right wing pressure on the authoritarian modernisation project, or dispense with her dubious services now while there is a big poll lead and most of the media are soft soaping his leadership? The smart money should go on exclusion now. Headlines today are chip wrappings tomorrow, and Duffield will be a name seldom heard once Starmer's got his feet under the table in Number 10.

Dumping Duffield also serves another function. As we know, there are plenty of Labour MPs who are too cowardly to openly declare their transphobia. Removing their self-appointed spokeswoman reinforces the message that they should keep their views to themselves. Not because Starmer cares about trans people, but again because of party reputational issues. Unlike Rishi Sunak's contracting out of racism and anti-woke politics to the dear departed Suella Braverman, Starmer does not want Labour identified with the extreme transphobia associated with the likes of the Linehans and other gender obsessives. He has fixed Labour's prejudice at the level of "genuine concerns" and not outright bigotry, and for entirely cynical political reasons that's where he wants it to stay.

Still, it's not a done deal yet. Starmer and his friends might be spooked by the backlash from all the worst people who fought in Labour's antisemitism wars and who, ultimately, paved the way for his leadership. But just as they made him they are entitled to think they could destroy him too. If Duffield is reinstated is peace now at the price of strife later. The alternative is a few moans, whinges, and trending topics on Twitter now for one less headache in the future. What's it to be?

The Party's Over - Stoke-on-Trent, Friday 8th December, 6.30pm

Of all the speaking gigs I've done since Falling Down/The Party's Over came out, this is the engagement I'm looking forward to the most. Organised by North Staffs Trades Council, which I once had the privilege of being a delegate to, and Stoke's excellent new community book shop, Drop City Books, on Friday 8th December you can hear me talking about the book, the state the Tories are in now, and undoubtedly the conversation will drift on to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.

This is a ticketed event, and they're available here. Looking forward to seeing you on the 8th!

Carnage in Croydon

I've told this story ere before, so please indulge me. Many years ago, a comrade of mine went for selection in a seat designated by Labour as safe. The long and short listing exercise was observed, and they made it to the final three. Not wanting to mess about, they got the members' details and visited the first house on the list. They introduced themselves, and was told politely but firmly to save their patter. Why? Because they'd returned their voting papers by post the previous week, several full days before the shortlisting for the ballot was officially finalised. Knowing the selection was blatantly stitched for a favoured son of the machine, my comrade refused to participate in the farce, packed their bags, and went home. There might have been some shadenfreude when the party lost the seat at the subsequent election.

Stitch ups are as Labour as the NHS, SureStart centres, and bombing people. We've seen leftwingers excluded from selection votes on the flimsiest of pretexts, and sitting officials barred from re-standing on spurious grounds. Because selections are screened right from Keir Starmer's office, via the ministrations of Morgan McSweeney and his allies and subordinates, nothing happens without their knowledge. Where stitching has to be done because someone left wing or someone whose face doesn't fit (i.e. allies of Angela Rayner), this clique nods it through. Any complaints about dodgy practice go straight in the bin.

Which makes the selection shenanigans in Croydon all the more interesting. The Croydon East constituency has been resurrected following the Tories' boundary review, and is a dead cert win for Labour at the next election. The CLP for the new seat doesn't exist yet, and so London region - a notoriously factional structure - imposed interim officers to decide the long list and the short list. Party democracy, such as it is, was entirely circumvented. As a result, four candidates got the rubber stamp. These included one Joel Bodmer, who happens to be a close ally of Steve Reed, the Croydon North MP and Starmer's shadow for DEFRA. Like Reed, Bodmer has a chequered history with the local Labour Party who, you might recall, bankrupted the council after turning the local authority into a property speculator.

But allowing the members to freely make a choice from the shortlisted four is too much democracy for the powers behind the scenes. Complaints reached the ears of Michael Crick, who has spent the last 18 months running a Twitter account publicising and investigating party selections. Earlier on Thursday, he reported that complaints had been made to London region and national HQ alleging fraud and tampering with membership lists. One member complained that an email address claiming to be her had requested an online vote, while noting she knew of others in the same boat. She also added she had left the party a year ago. Crick also says he has been handed the membership list that is given to shortlisted candidates for canvassing, noting it has been tampered with. "Dozens of members have had home addresses changed in ways which suggest systematic not human error." Egregious stitching in other words. However, following publicity the selection meeting has been postponed and all votes cast voided, with region announcing it will undertake an investigation/cover up.

Last year, Labour changed its rule book to say fairness and natural justice had no bearing on the expulsion process. That was merely a case of saying the quiet part out loud when it came to the party's operation in general. However, the Croydon case is so blatant and corrupt precisely because the McSweeney clique and their little helpers have grown accustomed to doing things their own way. The party is theirs, they are judge and jury so it doesn't matter how amateurish and in-your-face their stitching is because they control the process. But this relies on two things: that not enough people care and the media turn a blind eye. Crick is a famous and retired mainstream journalist, but his reporting has brought some of the Labour right's dark arts out into the light. And because the carnage in Croydon is so bad, is linked to a key Starmer lieutenant, and goes all the way up to his own office there is plenty here for an increasingly desperate Tory party looking for anything they can hit Labour with in this pre-pre-election period. And the likes of the Mail and Express to get their teeth into.

In this case, the ducking and a diving of Labour's new "grown up" politics is potentially very damaging and could, if it becomes widely known, knock holes in Starmer's reputation as "Mr Rules". Most people reading this know he's deceitful and shameless, but many don't. And already with the prospect of his replacing Rishi Sunak regarded an inevitablity absent any enthusiasm or hope for something better, this is another one of those moments that chip away at his legitimacy. Even before he's entered office.

Jeremy Hunt's Pre-Election Give Aways

At first glance Jeremy Hunt's second and, in all likelihood, last Autumn statement is unexpectedly good news. A cut to National Insurance, giving back £450/year to those on average salaries. This is due to come into force in January. Pensioners can look forward to a big hike in the state pension, with it increasing by 8.5% April. Social security up to match inflation. Local housing allowance was also put up, alcohol frozen, and the minimum wage cranked up to £11.44/hour, translating into a pay rise of £1,800/year for the lowest paid full time workers. Where has this Conservative Party been? Isn't Hunt trying to outflank a Labour Party who have said nothing and promised nothing on any of these issues?

Not in the slightest. These are measures designed to dazzle and bedazzle. The Tories know full well that their press allies are going to be effusive with praise. I can almost see The Sun's front page now, leading with the pension and wage increases superimposed onto a frozen bottle of booze. And this is exactly what any Tory chancellor would do. In an election year, it's the done thing for hitherto tight-pursed, penny-pinching occupants of Number 11 to shower the electorate with a generous helping of goodies. And the more mean spirited they usually are, the greater their largesse is talked up. Indeed, the fact the NI decrease is coming in imminently instead of waiting for the start of the new financial year suggests that election is coming sooner rather than later.

But this is smoke and mirrors stuff, and does not depart from Rishi Sunak's political strategy to manage expectations by dampening down belief in the capacity of the state to do anything. In Hunt's statement, this intent manifests in two ways. With £27bn more than expected to play with, rather than plugging gaps in eroding public services the Tories elected to give it away. The second is his announcement that state spending should never exceed economic growth, virtually guaranteeing even more cuts if the economy heads south. And his expectation that the public sector should strive to be more productive, with bureaucracy - that old Tory favourite - singled out as the barrier to efficiency. Never mind they're dropping to bits because the Tories have starved them of funds for nearly 14 years.

And consider who benefits from thse measures. Increasing benefits after holding them down so long still leaves this country the meanest in Western Europe where supporting the poorest are concerned. The big increase in the minimum wage is not before time, but only partially addresses the real terms erosion of wages that has characterised the sunset years of this Tory government. The state pension reaffirms their fidelity to the triple lock, hoping a generous bung to the pensioner base will turn them out at the next election and deliver them from a deserved drubbing. And that National Insurance cut? This applies to the 27 million workers who pay 12% on their salaries between £12,571 and £50,270. Higher paid employees pay two per cent on monies over the £50k mark. What that means is the higher the salary, the bigger the cut. Someone on an average salary will keep £450/year, but those at the top and beyond can look forward to pocketing a £750 saving. A subsidy for the wealthiest paid for by crumbling public services. Still, that's nothing compared to the billions handed to business. They will permanently enjoy a tax cut of 25p for every pound they invest in their firms.

The "good news" around benefits is tempered by a renewed assault on disabled people. As trailed last month, the Tories have now decided the flexible working that usually irks them offers a new excuse to tighten the screws. Their so-called back to work plan comes with more conditionalities, a more brutalising range of sanctions, and a new campaign of demonisation. As Hunt puts it, "Anyone choosing to coast on the hard work of taxpayers will lose their benefits." Red meat, they hope, for the crueller sections of the Tory base who might be Reform UK-curious.

In all, this is a short term budget designed to get the Tories over the electoral finishing line. There's nothing to address the anaemic growth forecast by the OBR. And no, reducing business taxes won't magically cut it. The headline grabbers are designed to bamboozle and hoodwink. But for most people, particularly working age people, they can see how even with higher benefits and/or NI cuts that they're worse off than before the pandemic. The prices have gone up and they keep going up, and the extra money can't stretch far enough. And that's why the Tory fates are sealed. They could have made other choices, but they didn't. Therefore, come the Spring it is their turn to suffer as the British electorate turns out and chooses to bury them. Possibly permanently.

The Human League - One Man In My Heart

While tonight's post is cooking, here's a ditty from the middle of the 90s to tide you over.

On Tory Briefcases

With the return of Dave to frontline politics and James Cleverly displacing the vengeful but weak Suella Braverman, there has been a sense among Westminster watchers that something has changed. The policy agenda hasn't. The new Home Secretary is apparently keen on making sure the Rwanda deal happens and the deportations begin as soon as possible. In time for May, perhaps? What we're seeing the return of is not "sensible politics", which have never really existed, but an attempted restoration of the pre-Brexit vibe economy.

What do we mean? Cast your mind back to how politics was performed before the referendum spoiled their game. On the one side there was Dave, George Osborne, and Nick Clegg. Opposing them was Ed Miliband and then, as now, an unremarkable clone army of inauthentic witterers and empty suits. There were some political differences between the two sides. Labour experimented with some social democratic-sounding policies and occasionally (very occasionally) uttered the word 'inequality'. All this while promising not to cut too far or too fast. There's a rousing slogan if there ever was one. And on the other? Some of the most appallingly destructive and cruel policies this country has ever seen. An unnecessary restructure that severely weakened the NHS but made it easier for Tory donors to get their slice of state money. The collapse of child and adult social care. Cuts to schools. The evisceration of the civil service and public services generally. And the return of social security cruelties not seen since the workhouse. Punitive sanctions that left people destitute. The grim farce of the bedroom tax, and the indignity of the work capability assessment. This is before we even mention the couple of hundred thousand excess deaths that occurred before the pandemic thanks to their programme of cuts.

Yet, to look at Dave, Osborne, and Clegg, their horrific legacy was delivered with an observance of the rules of the constitutional game. They were courteous in public, paid lip service to the rule of law, pretended their policies were driven by evidence and not ideology (and certainly not interests). They gave off a vibe of being at ease in office, of having a plan for dealing with the problems they defined and definitely exacerbated, and all three were accomplished performers in the media. Not that it mattered much. They too were beneficiaries of the real blue wall - the barrier collectively erected by the right wing press against criticism and democratic pressures. Marrying this to always being seen in a suit and never in casual clothing, and how comfortable they were in front of TV camera,s they gave off vibes of competence. They had their long-term economic plan, even though it didn't exist. They knew what they were doing, when the indices for GDP and living standards showed they did not. Their accomplishment was seeding a structure of feeling that appealed to just enough people to win the Tories their second term and a slim majority.

This is what briefcase Toryism is. For instance, if like Dave and Osborne Boris Johnson had nodded to constitutional niceties, never contrived to outrage, and wasn't stupid enough to unnecessarily break his own laws and shield favoured lackeys from accountability, he'd still be in office. To be seen playing by the rules of the game protects a politician from media commentators and other politicians who affect to uphold these conventions. This is what separates Rishi Sunak from Johnson and Liz Truss. His expensive suits and shoes, the efforts gone to for personal branding, the niche he carved out in the Tory leadership contest he lost - of lecturing the other candidates on fiscal probity - marked him out as the "serious" choice. Which is one reason why the membership rejected him. When the wheels fell off Truss's premiership, it was the sensible people who steadied government and then secured the top job for the right man. It's true Sunak has proven just as useless as his predecessor, but his own approach to governing the country is an unshowy affair of not doing much. Except for outsourcing the unpopular populism to noted right wingers.

Therefore, it doesn't matter what Sunak's particular politics are. It doesn't even count that he was a Brexiteer. He has the smooth, business-like habitus of a Cameroon. His very appearance and manner of speaking recalls the memory of the Coalition government, and the vibe he wants to give off is underscored by bringing Dave back into government. Briefcase Toryism is their version of sensible centrism, and ticks exactly the same boxes. Both pride themselves on what you might call heady pragmatism. A hard worship of accomplished fact, which are selected for and refined by media and political framing. In as much as they differ, it's on the specifics of managing the class relations and contradictions of British capitalism. And, true to this tradition, Keir Starmer has yet to offer a programme for fixing its problems. He too is content to emit the right vibes, and this is undoubtedly a preview of what to expect more of when he's in office.

However, a long hibernation awaits Tory briefcaseism. With defeat inevitable and a period of right wing ascendency in the party likely, where do the so-called "good" Tories go? Do they snipe from the sidelines to fill the copy of their dwindling press? Cross the floor? Leave the Commons for profitable opportunities outside? Bed down and snooze until better times come? Whatever is the case, now the briefcase tendency has a firm grip on the leadership they are the ones who will cop the blame for the coming disaster. At least their outfits will come in handy for the post-politics job interviews.

A Tour of Stoke-on-Trent

I was there for 27-and-a-bit years, and I'll always have an abiding affection for the place. This video does a good job of providing an outsider's point of view without being condescending or doing crap town gloating. Help unbreak Stoke by visiting!

Also good to see Drop City Books getting a plug. Some more news about that coming up ...