While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean energy technology

Trade fragmentation would reverse the path by which gains from globalization were attained

Pairs of countries have agreed to settle commercial and financial transactions with each other in their local currencies, usually facilitated through bilateral agreements between their central banks. China has been able to use its currency to settle half of its foreign trade and investment transactions. The growing use of local currencies in external payments will be part of what we have already called a “slow and bounded de-dollarization”. A partial fragmentation of the global payments system is underway.

Notwithstanding the ongoing drive by countries for a higher plurality of main currencies, raising the use of the renminbi, “de-dollarization” looks bound to be partial and limited.

The economic factors that have propelled global prosperity over the past three decades are losing their grip.

Laws and their enforcement are essential to weigh the cost-benefit calculation from the point of view of the deforester in favor of non-deforestation

Global tectonic plate shifts have affected Latin America's relations with China and the U.S.

This time it will be more gradual and in a different direction

In 2023, both the demand and supply sides point to upward pressure across much of the set of commodity prices

Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way to higher interest rates and liquidity squeezes. Finally, because of the previous changes, there was a strong devaluation of financial assets in 2022. There are now fears about multiple possibilities of financial shocks ahead.

It is in the labor market that the Fed's monetary policy script will be written

Three different channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials

Latin America's recovery after the perfect storm should not be limited to a simple return to pre-pandemic “mediocre” levels of output growth

The currently global “stagflation” experience may evolve toward one of a “soft landing”, a “sharp downturn”, or a “deep recession”.

Waves of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure as a growth lever are exhausted

There are reasons to consider a recession call as currently premature, even recognizing clear and undeniable signs of an economic growth slowdown at the margin