In a two-day military offensive launched on 19 September, Azerbaijan took back control of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of its territory; most of its Armenian inhabitants have since fled. According to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s nine-month blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, its refusal to guarantee the cultural and political rights of the Armenian population, and the hate speech coming from the Azerberjaini authorities in Baku created a climate designed to provoke the exodus and amount to ethnic cleansing. Officially, the Armenian population are free to return, but a lack of concrete security guarantees and the resentment that has built up over more than three decades suggest few will do so.
The conflict over the enclave started in February 1988, when its Armenian population demanded independence and the government of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast voted to unite with Armenia, which came to their support. The first Nagorno-Karabakh war (1988-94) followed: Armenia occupied the enclave and the surrounding area (nearly 13% of Azerbaijan’s territory), driving out its Azeri population.
Is Azerbaijan’s repossession of the enclave the end of the matter? Probably not. The propaganda from Baku – which refers to the Republic of Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan’ – hints at more fighting to come.
Unable to reorganise
Armenia stands alone against these threats. It has not been able to reorganise or re-equip its armed forces after the heavy losses they suffered in 2020, in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. Russia, its traditional security partner, has failed to deliver on an arms contract worth $400m. And neither Russia nor the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO, of which Armenia is a member) condemned Azerbaijan’s military incursions in 2021-22, when it captured strategic heights, enabling it to redraw the border in its own favour. Nor did they intervene to protect Armenia’s territory. (...)
