NBA
Basketball by nature is such a fun sport to watch. But I just can't stand watching it anymore because the commentators are always overselling it (they orgasm every time Steph Curry makes a 3) and the player's arrogance and attitudes make them incredibly unlikable. They are so disconnected from the every day working person that it makes it hard to support them in any way.
EDIT: I should not have written arrogant as a part of my post. A player can be arrogant and likable.
Sports News and Highlights from the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, and leagues around the world.
Sports News and Highlights from the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, and leagues around the world.
The 76ers beat the Lakers 138-94 today after a 4th quarter decimation (40-14). His worst loss prior to this was a 42 point loss against Indiana in 2019 where they lost 136-94 after he first joined LA with the young Lakers core. It was also the first game where he didn't record a rebound since 2010. Rough outing for Bron today
Source: https://twitter.com/DanWoikeSports/status/1729329972597194855
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Break even day for me. nfl did well, nba main cashed, got shit on for night/show down. i cashed with mpj and poole. just an utter disgrace of a performance from both of those guys lol. Hopefully you all got to dusty deandre and reggie. Got an amazing slate for tomorrow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOmPyXd_HaM&feature=youtu.be
If discord is something you are interested in, Will have a link below where i have cores, videos, etc..
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Edit: butler/highsmith out. really like jaquez, really like caleb, lowry good play, jrich good play, bam is fine, duncan in play. love in play. cain in play for large field gpps
Edit: still like jaq/caleb off the bench. really like the starters
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Fuck Jordan Poole! Can't believe I went back there again. And whoda think DeAndre still had that in him. Solid day still thanks to Big Government. Onto the next.
8 games today and the IST is wrapping up for teams today. Lot of exciting matchups.
Chicago @ Boston (Bos -13.5 o/u 219)
Gross, this would 100% be a skip game if everyone was healthy, but that's not the case. Lavine and Caruso are questionable on the Bulls side and Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, are questionable and Porzingis is OUT for the Celtics. If all these guys sit, I have some big time interest in Payton Pritchard $4500 and Coby White $5900 here. Patrick Williams $4800 has a little bit of upside if he breaks into the 30 minute threshold again, but doesn't do too much to produce. The studs are all fairly priced, but I'm not absolutely itching to get there with this line and spread. I'll keep watching the news but I don't think you're starting builds with any of the main guys from this game. Big PP will smash tho if everyone sits on the Cs.
Atl @ Cle (Cle -4 o/u 237)
Now this is more like it. The Hawks will be without their starting wing of Jalen Johnson tonight and for the foreseeable future. DeAndre Hunter got a bit of a price bump up to $5800 but that is still pretty damn cheap he's going to be seeing close to 40 minutes here. This season Hunter's best games would come in the down games for Jalen, and vice versa. I expect him to maintain consistent production here tonight vs the Cavs. Saddiq Bey $5500 entered the starting lineup last time out but didn't see a big bump in his minutes or shots. I don't mind him, but I'd prefer Bogi $5800 as he will now be seeing the vast majority of shots in the second unit. DeAndre is by far my favorite play of those 3. As for the studs, this is the highest total of the day, and should definitely try and get exposure to each side. . Like a DeAndre and one of the guards against Donovan or Garland and Mobley is solid as hell. Will be a good one.
Milwaukee @ Miami (Mil -4 o/u 228)
Jimmy Butler is sitting tonight and Haywood Highsmith is Questionable. If Highsmith is also out, the rotation will be super tight for the Heat. Lowry and Josh Richardson will see the majority of the guard minutes. Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jacquez, and Caleb Martin will see the forward/wing minutes. And Bam will eat up the big man minutes, with Kevin Love to see the scraps. I find this spread extremely interesting, as Vegas is expecting the Heat to keep this close and for it to be a fairly high scoring affair. As a betting man, I love the Bucks spread here in just that scenario. Best bet of the day imo. From a DFS perspective, the Heat guys are a tossup. Robinson $5600 may have the highest ceiling, as he's flashed scoring in the 40s fpts this year, but also the lowest floor. I really liked what were seeing from Caleb Martin $5200. His minutes have been climbing fairly steadily, and got 18 shots up in the last game when he saw over 30. We saw his potential in the playoffs last year, and the Heat will need him to step up big time with Jimmy OUT. I also really like playing one of Kyle Lowry $5200 or Josh Richardson $5000 tonight and I think Bam $9400 is a really solid tournament play. I don't think Jamal Cain will see minutes tonight with Robinson returning. Given the tight rotation and really mid-range prices for the Heat, I think you can play a few and not force a Milwaukee player back. You totally can, but I'm not super desperate to play anyone vs the Heat ever.
Toronto @ Brooklyn (Bkn -1 o/u 221)
I think you either stack or skip this one. It is the definition of mid, from the team records, to star quality, to pricing. Everyone's over 6k but under 9k and the spreads close. It's a doable stack that will be super low owned from a large field tournament perspective. Little bit of luck, and this game goes to OT and all of a sudden you take down a big one. Dennis Smith is the only real news we're watching for here as he'd steal a few mins from the BKN guys. It's a risky move but a Dinwiddie-Cam Johnson-Claxton-Scottie Barnes-Schroeder game stack is pretty damn affordable and should eat the vast majority of the usage in this game. There are much better games on this slate but it's a pretty fun tournament theory here. I've had worse ideas, like playing Jordan Poole yesterday.
Charlotte @ New York (NYK -11.5 o/u 221)
Lamelo Ball is OUT with an ankle injury but Terry Rozier $7900 and Miles Bridges $8000 aren't cheap. In a better pace game, I think they'd be very strong plays. One of Jalen Branson or Julius Randle will crush their $8200 price tag tonight. I also have a bit of interest in Mitchell Robinson $5900 and Mark Williams $6700. Very similar big men in terms of style of play, and the fact that Rob sees heavy minutes might force Charlotte into playing Mark a little more than usual. Not a massive fan of playing a healthy Knicks rotations, but Charlotte isn't really known for it's defense. It'll be a matter of if they're able to beat this spread here and keep it close. These prices are pretty favorable on the Knicks side. Totally don't mind it, but I don't think I'm going to force anything here.
Thunder @ Minny (Min -4 o/u 229)
What a fun game this should be. These are the #1 and #2 seeds in the West currently! Theyve been fantastic to start the year, Minnesota has done so with their defense and OKC with their offense. I think that watching an SGA vs Ant matchup for fun is more appealing than watching them keep each other from the 120 combined fantasy points you'd need them to score to make their stack worth it. I think if you want exposure to this game it's through the Big Men. Chet $8300 and KAT $8500 or Rudy $7400 with a lil Jalen Williams $6200 or Josh Giddey $6300 on top. I would think that this game goes under it's total, and I could see a lot of people trying to fit these guys into their lineups. It's not my favorite stack of the day, but should be an amazing game of ball.
Rockets @ Mavericks (Dal -4 o/u 228)
If the Rockets win, they lock up a spot in the IST final 8 teams. They've had a great start to the season, and a win would culminate all their good vibes. Alperen Sengun $8400 has been an absolute stud this year and is in a really good spot to have another lights out performance vs this Mavericks lack of interior. Maxi Kleber remains OUT and Lively is Q. Neither would deter me from Alpy but this makes it an even better spot for him. Richaun Holmes and Dwight Powell will get schooled. I'm looking more at Kyrie $8700 than Luka $11800 here as I could see Luka getting the attention of Villain Brooks. FVV at $8000 intrigues me a bit here too. Brooks price is favorable but his production is inconsistent. The Houston rotations is pretty deep right now too, so I'm not really looking to risk it on anyone outside of Alpy or FVV and then get Kyrie on the other side. Luka can always just Luka the slate away, but I think he's in the worst spot of the 11k + guys and I don't see any viable way to force those super expensive guys in right now.
Warriors @ Kings (Sac -1.5 o/u 236)
The absolute fucking hammer. These teams have had some thrilling matchups in the last few months and now get to go at it again tonight on national TV with massive IST stakes on the line. This is an absolute dream for the NBA. The Kings crowd will be fucking rocking, and this game will absolutely have a playoff atmosphere. From a fantasy standpoint Steph Curry is only $8900 and if you've been following the NBA recently, he loves to get up and crush the kings dreams in their place. In his last five games in the Golden 1 Center he is averaging right around 36/5/5...as a Kings fan im really hoping that doesn't happen again, however the Kings will be missing Keegan Murray tonight, who actually guarded Steph mainly last time they faced each other. The duty will likely fall upon the shoulders of Chris Duarte early, who will find himself in foul trouble once again despite his starting nod. This dude cannot stop fouling dudes. I really love the idea of a Fox-Monk-Curry-Draymond game stack here. I think you can also get to CP3 at his price of $6600. Klay and Loon are super cheap too. Maybe this is the time Domantas Sabonis gets over the hump vs the Warriors. They've had his number for about 10 straight games, but he's fully capable of getting a big number out there tonight and is $9900. My fandom makes me a bit biased, but I will 100% be using a Curry-Dray-Klay-Loon v Fox-Monk-Domas game stack here. Maybe even throw in K-Von or HB for good measure.
B.O.L tonight. Light the Beam
🟣🔦🐈
Link for clarification: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYXb-FC22ws&ab_channel=NBA
at 0:45 AD and Lebron both touch the ball after DMitch's first free throw.
Why? to throw him off or is it just superstition? or something else entirely?
Hello, quick thoughts on today's main slate!
If you'd like faster answers as well as access to my projections you can find me here on Discord https://discord.gg/T8cUgcKS and the Patreon All Access link can be found here https://www.patreon.com/JaySpeaking. We also have NFL picks as well as most other sports and we'd love to have you stop in, most of it is free :)
CHI @ BOS
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Chicago gives up a lot of 3's but plays slow and has an otherwise decent enough defense. This game has a high spread and a low total which will steer people away (for good reason). There is a 22 point point differential that BOS can make up on ORL if they blow this one out for the in-season tourney. It kinda leads me to think they may leave their starters in to skip over the whole wild card ordeal and to try to get this thing done.
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I really don't like playing any Bulls but I never do and somehow end up having a lineup with DDR, Vooch, or Coby randomly. I think they could score 85 points tonight which isn't good.
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Tatum, Brown.....maybe Jrue, maybe Hauser
TOR @ BKN
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Kind of a meh game here where I'd like to like someone but just don't love anything. Maybe that changes before lock but everything seems priced okay unless you wanted to take a shot at someone here. I'd like to choose either center but just unsure as the position is loaded.
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Keeping Siakam, Turtle in mind. Have lesser interest in Barnes, Schroder, and GTJ
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Dunno if I like Cam here as TOR stingy at 3 so probably Bridges and keeping an eye on Claxton.
ATL @ CLE
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Not playing Bogi into that ownership is a hill I'm willing to die on first off. We could see some double bigs stuff out of ATL tonight to kind of combat Mobley - Allen. CLE does have a solid defense but on the other side of things here I really like CLE. It's a pace up matchup and they'll try to hide Trae as much as possible on defense.
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Okongwu, Trae, Bey, and then maybe on Capela.....not as high as normal tonight on DJM
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For Cleveland I like Garland but also like Mitchell at half the ownership. Good spot for Mobley and Allen as well. The rest are priced up a little too much for me.
MIL @ MIA
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No news here yet on Middleton but I'm assuming he plays. I kinda like Dame here and like Giannis, I don't normally play into revenge narratives but that playoff exit really bugged him last year. No Jimmy tonight for MIA as well, Bam will still be a defensive terror though. MIA can give up some 3's so that's why I'm on Dame plus without Jimmy I don't know who guards him. I loved Jaquez Jr before the Jimmy scratch so curious what his ownership ends up coming in at. I'm interested unless it's stupid high which it may be.
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Dame, Giannis, BroLo, maybe on Middleton and Beasley is just a gamble.
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Bame, Jaquez, maybe Martin, maybe Richardson but we still have some Q tags on Bam/Duncan/Highsmith to sort through later.
CHA @ NYK
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Hornets defense is horrible and Lamelo is out. You can target Hornets top to bottom and aside from Scary Terry I don't know if I like much out of CHA. Could maybe see something from Miller or PJ but I doubt it, they're all just priced a little too high for this Knicks defense. I'll leave Ish in my player pool for the time being but probably don't get there.
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Scary Terry then really iffy on Miller, PJ
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RJ Barret, Robinson, Randle, Brunson, and even Quickley here for NY.
OKC @ MIN
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Tough matchup here for both teams as OKC has a good defense and is really hard to face with their wing length. MIN has top 2 defense in the league and flip flops with Boston for the top spot. This is kinda tough to get to but could have some decent leverage with some guys that are more matchup proof. OKC can be attacked a little more inside.
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Shai, maybe Jalen Williams but don't love it
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Gobert first for me, he's cheap then I don't mind KAT, Naz, and Ant......maybe Slo Mo but trying not to go there so often
HOU @ DAL
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Dallas still sucks on defense and teams are really good around the rim vs them. Houston is playing good defense and trying hard under Udoka who might just save Jalen Green's career. Luka is matchup proof, Kyrie can be. I kinda like targeting this game although I jumped off the super spend up bandwagon a long time ago.
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Tate and Eason kinda equal here all things considered here for me, I think if you needed that value it's one or the other. Don't mind the spot for Jabar, love it for Sengun even with the higher price and like the spot for Jalen Green, especially at his price. FVV remains a gamble for me and is priced a little high but does carry 50pt upside from time to time.
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Luka, Kyrie, then iffy on Grant and iffy on Lively
GSW @ SAC
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GSW is not playing very good basketball right now and they get Draymond back from his latest suspension and I expect him to come out barking like a pissed off dog. This is also a knock to SAC in a way but they're playing at home and such a solid team it's hard to stay away. Hopefully no tricks here as this is a game way out on an island at 10:00pm eastern.
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Steph for his upside is in play, Draymond kinda cheap but don't love it, Wiggins whatever and very iffy to play now, Looney has given Sabonis issues in the past and has a few 40 bombs vs SAC last year. I will get to some of him as my pivot off ownership play in my UTIL spot.
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Maybe here on some guys. Monk is getting a lot of ownership right now so I'll fade, I like Sabonis, Fox priced up a bit but okay, Red Velvet iffy, Barnes is shit listed but iffy here for me and may work him into something.
Hope everyone has a great day!
The oldest player to ever have played in an NBA was Nat Hickey, who played one game in the 1947–48 season when he was 45 years and 363 days old. He decided to activate himself and played in a game for the Providence Steamrollers where he missed all six of his shot attempts and only scored two points from three free throw attempts. He only played in one more game before retiring as a player two days shy of his 46th birthday.
Does Lebron play long enough to beat this record, or even as a 46 year old player in the league? Well, to do that he needs to play until the 2030-2031 season, which if it happens, will be his 27th season in the NBA. At this point, he's already just 1 season shy of Vince Carter's 22 season record, so 27 seasons seems ridiculous. But considering the shape he's in and the value he still adds to the Lakers, I'm inclined to never say never.
ESPN used to write this article years ago predicting losses based on the schedule.
I thought would be cool to try and replicate this for the 2023/2024 season.
They referred to these matches as a "scheduled loss". Essentially, a "scheduled loss" is a loss you can pre-determine because of a brutal schedule.
So I created a composite score which evaluates every single match-up and assigns it a score from 0 to 10 based on five conditions:
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Number of days of rest
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Number of days of opponent rest
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Travel distance
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Timezone changes
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Previous 7 game history
Each of these variables have been assigned a weight and a score from 0 to 10. For each variables, I tried to distribute the scores between 0 and 10 for a more even spread. The score in itself does not actually mean anything. It is a composite metric. However, it can serves as a rank and can be used to compare teams against each other.
Quick insights
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LAC have the hardest schedule with the highest average score (4.91)
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ATL have the easiest schedule with the lowest average score (4.42)
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NBA does a fairly good job of balancing the schedule with small variations between teams, however the distribution for some teams is huge. Check out the distribution here.
Each teams worst match-up according to the composite score
So far, 7 teams have had their hardest match-ups. Of those 7, they have won 4 and lost 3. Although, remember the score does not look at the quality of the opponent. When we look at the line, the team with the scheduled loss has only covered the line twice out of the seven matches.
I'll be following closely to see how this plays out over the rest of the season.
Team | Worst score | Opponent | Date | Result (for team with scheduled loss) | Line result (for team with scheduled loss) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Hawks | 7.15 | @ Sacramento Kings | 22 Jan 2024 | ||
Boston Celtics | 8.04 | vs. Phoenix Suns | 14 Mar 2024 | ||
Brooklyn Nets | 7.73 | vs. New York Knicks | 23 Jan 2024 | ||
Charlotte Hornets | 7.01 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 27 Feb 2024 | ||
Chicago Bulls | 7.98 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 15 Jan 2024 | ||
Cleveland Cavaliers | 7.87 | vs. Detroit Pistons | 17 Nov 2023 | Win (by 8) | Lose (not cover -9.5 line) |
Dallas Mavericks | 7.48 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 Feb 2024 | ||
Denver Nuggets | 7.60 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 23 Feb 2024 | ||
Detroit Pistons | 8.02 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 6 Apr 2024 | ||
Golden State Warriors | 7.42 | vs. Sacramento Kings | 1 Nov 2023 | Win (by 1) | Lose (not cover -6.5 line) |
Houston Rockets | 7.86 | vs. Memphis Grizzlies | 22 Nov 2023 | Win (by 20) | Win (cover -4.5 line) |
Indiana Pacers | 7.24 | @ Chicago Bulls | 27 Mar 2024 | ||
LA Clippers | 7.62 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 27 Mar 2024 | ||
Los Angeles Lakers | 7.84 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 31 Dec 2023 | ||
Memphis Grizzlies | 7.41 | @ Washington Wizards | 28 Oct 2023 | Lose (by 7) | Lose (not cover -1 line) |
Miami Heat | 8.46 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 15 Jan 2024 | ||
Milwaukee Bucks | 7.39 | @ Utah Jazz | 4 Feb 2024 | ||
Minnesota Timberwolves | 7.45 | vs. Denver Nuggets | 19 Mar 2024 | ||
New Orleans Pelicans | 7.34 | vs. Los Angeles Lakers | 14 Apr 2024 | ||
New York Knicks | 7.92 | @ Chicago Bulls | 5 Apr 2024 | ||
Oklahoma City Thunder | 7.81 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 3 Jan 2024 | ||
Orlando Magic | 7.68 | vs. Los Angeles Lakers | 4 Nov 2023 | Win (by 19) | Win (cover +4.5 line) |
Philadelphia 76ers | 7.81 | vs. Brooklyn Nets | 3 Feb 2024 | ||
Phoenix Suns | 7.02 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 4 Nov 2023 | Lose (by 12) | Lose (not cover +6.5 line) |
Portland Trail Blazers | 7.28 | @ Houston Rockets | 25 Mar 2024 | ||
Sacramento Kings | 7.89 | @ Toronto Raptors | 20 Mar 2024 | ||
San Antonio Spurs | 7.15 | vs. Boston Celtics | 31 Dec 2023 | ||
Toronto Raptors | 6.88 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 23 Feb 2024 | ||
Utah Jazz | 7.62 | @ Boston Celtics | 5 Jan 2024 | ||
Washington Wizards | 7.32 | vs. Atlanta Hawks | 25 Nov 2023 | Lose (by 26) | Lose (not cover +9.5 line) |
Some other interesting insights from this analysis
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When the composite scores are ordered, Indiana, Lakers and the Spurs have five matches the appear in the top 50
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When the composite scores are ordered, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Detroit only have one matches the appear in the top 50
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LAC travel the most distance this year (by a significant amount of second)
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5 out of 6 teams that travel the most are from the Western Conference, on average the Western Conference teams travel ~11% more (in kilometres travelled) than the Eastern Conference teams
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Every team has either 13, 14 or 15 back to backs but the distribution of home and away back to backs can vary quite a lot
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NYK have 0 home back to backs and DAL only have 1 home back to back
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