My Very Early NBA DFS Picks for Wednesday, 11/8/23
Great to have NBA DFS back. Yesterday was a snoozer with no NBA or NFL. I did watch a movie, though, so not a total loss!
Ownership % are not super reliable this early in the day - let alone a slate this massive - but wanted to give my thoughts to get the day going to assist anyone who is also getting started.
Using the RotoGrinder own% numbers that are live right now to provide my 3 favorite picks and who I am fading at the moment.
Top 3 Picks
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Malcolm Brogdon - Blazers ($8.2k)
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Jordan Hawkins - Pelicans ($4.7k)
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Nikola Jokic - Nuggets ($11.7k)
Brogdon and Hawkins are mega chalk right now and I don't expect that to change. The Pels are down CJ and some other ancillary pieces, and Hawkins went off last game. He is a pretty impossible fade for me given the lack of reliable value, his current role, and his cheap price at Draft Kings.
Brog could be argued as a fade just because he's not cheap and it's a huge slate. However, his role is massive sans Scoot and Simons and a date with the Fox-less Kings is plenty appealing. He projects as a smash play.
I say eat these chalky bits here and get different elsewhere tonight.
The Joker is a lock for me. I do also have mild interest in possibly unowned Giannis or Joel, but Jokic projects for similar ownership and perhaps gets overlooked because he's in one of the hammer games and the slate is simply so big.
No Jamal Murray, though, and Jokic has the best projection by far tonight. I am locking these 3 in as core plays and working from there.
Top Fades
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Mitchell Robinson - Knicks (23% owned)
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Julian Strawther - Nuggets (17% owned)
There are other guys like Naz Reid, Tari Eason, and Marcus Sasser that are picking up early ownership, but I will assume injury news will render them all irrelevant. Probably the same can be said for M-Rob and Strawther.
Strawther is the min and has a little role with Murray sidelined, but it's so volatile and impossible to project. Unless we know he randomly starts, I'm not doing it - especially if he'll be owned.
I don't get the Robinson interest beyond that he's cheap and it's early. I gotta think his ownership % free falls by the afternoon.
Games to Stack
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Wizards vs. Hornets
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Jazz vs. Pacers
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Blazers vs. Kings
I'll also point out LaMelo Ball, who is going to be owned, but for good reason. He's in perhaps the most stackable game on this slate (tight spread, massive total), and he leads a slew of excellent plays in a game I'll have a ton of.
Getting different but sticking in good environments, you can play Haliburton for half the ownership and stack the Utah vs. Indy game with confidence.
I also like a lot of the Blazers, and you can hit the Kings side with Sabonis and a bunch of cheap ancillary pieces.
Other Noteworthy Options
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SGA
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Ingram
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Bron
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KD
Once again, news will trickle in throughout the day, so there is so much that can and will change. The Brow might not play, though, while Devin Booker is out. Both KD and LeBron could look very good for tonight.
Ingram benefits with CJ out and continues to project well. He could go super overlooked on a loaded slate. I also kind of like SGA, who has as high of a ceiling as anyone, but is pricey and will not be owned.
Everyone will play Ball or Hali over him, so he's quite an interesting pivot in GPPs.
Hope this helped a little. I will likely be focusing most of my efforts on the three game stacks I mentioned, and then sorting through the rest based on whatever news pops up. Good luck!