×

19.3k
19.3k

Good News (site edited title)Johnson & Johnson says it can provide 20M US doses in March. (apnews.com)

submitted by Juicyjackson

top 200 commentsshow 500
sorted by:
best (suggested)
topnewcontroversialoldq&a

[–][deleted] 2739 points2740 points  (350 children)

Fuck yes!!

ETA: Since people want to be ignorant and try to downplay this vaccine. 28 days after vaccination its 85% effective against severe covid and 100% effective against hospitalization and death.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

Get whatever vaccine is available to you as soon as it’s available to you!

[–]Dandan0005 789 points790 points  (206 children)

Feels like j&j has different projections for how many they can supply (and when) nearly every other day.

But if this is accurate, combined with the 200M 220M Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, there should be close to 120 130 million Americans either fully or partially vaccinated by the end of March, which is nearly half the eligible population.

Edit: Actually, there could be many more at least partially vaccinated by end of March.

Assuming we are vaccinating 2M people per day by March, and avg blended time between doses is 25 days, there could be closer to 150M Americans vaccinated with at least one dose of Pfizer or Moderna by March 31.

Add j&j’s 20M and we could see as many as 160–170M with at least some level of vaccination by the end of March.

Assuming ~260M eligible adults, that’s nearly 2/3 of the eligible of population with some level of vaccination by April.

This is all, obviously, a best case scenario that assumes efficient distribution and administration, no setbacks etc, but this really makes the finish line seem close to May.

If distribution targets are met (and they keep reaffirming them) the question becomes can we GREATLY increase the administration to 3x what it is today to match the supply.

[–]jgjgleason 203 points204 points  (143 children)

Please tell me if I’m wrong, but aren’t Pfizer and Moderna set to deliver 200 million doses in March alone? If that’s the case then we’ll have supply to get to 120 million Americans on top of what we’ve done.

[–]ibeelive 203 points204 points  (92 children)

No, they are set to deliver 220mn by 3/31. They have 120mn to go until then to meet that obligation. We'll see.

[–]YeahSureAlrightYNot 235 points236 points  (90 children)

So a 130 million americans will be vaccinated by the end of march (if all vaccines are applied as well)?

That's pretty great, honestly. It's 40% of the population already. If that ends up happening, it's very likely that by the end of april/start of may, the US will have vaccines for everyone that wants them.

This will probably be the wildest 4th of July in american history. Everyone will have so much pent up energy and emotion to set loose.

[–][deleted] 200 points201 points  (30 children)

This will probably be the wildest 4th of July in american history.

Independence Day would take on a whole new meaning this year.

[–][deleted] 85 points86 points  (9 children)

As long as it's not aliens in city sized space ships hovering over our major metropolises.

[–][deleted] 39 points40 points  (1 child)

Wouldn't suprise me after the past year.

[–]thinkofanamefast 32 points33 points  (5 children)

And Randy Quaid is in no shape to fly.

load more comments (1 reply)

    [–]double-xor 41 points42 points  (15 children)

    We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the Fourth of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on!

    [–]thewavefixationBoosted! ✨💉✅ 18 points19 points  (14 children)

    I know you are quoting the movie but the world is gonna give a big ol' yawn if the USA gets its vaccination done but they are still waiting for any vaccine.

    It might not even be as nice as a yawn, to be honest.

    [–][deleted] 11 points12 points  (13 children)

    My hope is that our leadership is competent enough to realize how amazing us shipping our leftover doses to less fortunate countries would look to the rest of the world. (Not to mention that it would be a genuinely good thing to do, but, you know, I'm a realist.)

    [–]shadowCloudrift 11 points12 points  (0 children)

    The celebration track should play everywhere once the world has practically eliminated the coronavirus.

    load more comments (3 replies)

      [–]Pinewood74 66 points67 points  (6 children)

      (if all vaccines are applied as well)

      I imagine there's like a 2-3 week delay from "delivery" to arms.

      [–]ford_cruller 46 points47 points  (0 children)

      That is exactly the current gap we're seeing. But it has been slowly closing, too.

      [–]ThorsHammock 29 points30 points  (3 children)

      Plus a 2-3 week delay from arms to immunity

      [–]jdorjeBoosted! ✨💉✅ 15 points16 points  (2 children)

      7 days to significant immunity from symptomatic infection on the mRNA vaccines. It is another ~12 days from infection to reported testing, 20-40 days from infection to death, and 1+ more weeks from death to reporting.

      load more comments (1 reply)

        [–]jxsn50st 28 points29 points  (1 child)

        Also keep in mind there's 75+ million Americans who are under 16 years old and as of now not eligible for the vaccine. So your percentage is actually even higher if taking into account eligible people only.

        [–]WishIWasYounger 8 points9 points  (0 children)

        And the percentage of us who acquired Covid and have the antibodies now. We are going to get this done.

        load more comments (12 replies)

          load more comments (1 reply)

            [–]Dandan0005 43 points44 points  (43 children)

            I was a bit low on the Pfizer and Moderna schedule, but it’s unfortunately not 200M in March alone.

            Pfizer said they expect to deliver 120M total by end of March, and Moderna expects to deliver 100M by end of March, so 220m total from them, meaning 110M Americans.

            But also, because there is a 3/4 week delay in doses, there will likely be many more than 110 Million receiving at least one dose from Pfizer/Moderna by the end of March.

            Assuming we are vaccinating 2M people per day by mid March, and avg blended time between doses is 25 days, there could be closer to 150M Americans vaccinated with at least one dose by March 31.

            Add j&J’s 20M and we could see as many as 160–170M with at least some level of vaccination by the end of March.

            [–]whatsmyPWBoosted! ✨💉✅ 29 points30 points  (42 children)

            There is only 44 mil people who have gotten at least 1 dose. To get to 150M with at least one dose by March 31st that would be 106 mil in 37 days. Thats 2.86 mil FIRST doses per day until then.

            Also your dose numbers are off. We will have gotten 220m Total from Moderna and Pfizer by March 31st, but we already received 75 mil+, so the actual number is 145 mil doses by March 31st

            [–]Dandan0005 15 points16 points  (40 children)

            Good point on the rate of vaccinations given but we will also need to average ~4.5M doses delivered per day in order to hit our delivery targets of 240M by March 31.

            Right now administration capacity is far greater than supply, so I don’t see why doses given wouldn’t increase exponentially along with deliveries.

            I suspect that once states start having far more vaccines available and they start sitting on shelves, all of the restrictions on who can be given the vaccine will be tossed out the window in favor of making sure the vaccines aren’t sitting on shelves.

            The delivery numbers aren’t off though, those are just the cumulative totals expected to be delivered by March 31.

            load more comments (1 reply)

              load more comments (6 replies)

                [–]Dumbstupidhuman 20 points21 points  (6 children)

                And the estimates for actually infected people is around over 120,000,000, there’s likely some additional immunity from that population. (Uneducated napkin math:) Even if 1/3 of those are not in the vaccine bucket and have protection, that’s another 40 million (non scientific speculation). That puts the number potentially over 200,000,000. That’s looking towards 60% plus, creeping towards herd immunity territory.

                [–]Gratitude15 63 points64 points  (10 children)

                The fact that this is so upvote has me thinking people are finally starting to get it. This disease could be toast by memorial day and we have the most lit summer of our lives.

                [–]Cunninghams_right 14 points15 points  (8 children)

                now imagine this: since early data suggest pfizer and moderna are effective with a single dose, it may actually be possible to delay everyone's 2nd dose for an extra month (maybe 2) and double the number of people who get their first shot. that would be huge.

                [–]Gratitude15 30 points31 points  (7 children)

                They won't. I can understand why. It's debatable. But getting the 2nd quick makes me feel better vs south African variant and other new ones.

                load more comments (1 reply)

                  [–][deleted] 42 points43 points  (2 children)

                  Covid: “Nooo!! You can’t just pump out vaccines when I’m already running out of fresh hosts to infect!!”

                  Companies: “blue vaccine bubbles go brrrrrrrr”

                  [–][deleted] 31 points32 points  (17 children)

                  All the front line workers and old geezers who want a vaccine should be vaccinated no later than April 1st. This should open up vaccines for younger people with comorbidities as well as those who are considered "essential workers" such as grocery/food workers throughout the month of April, followed by general healthy population vaccinations starting in May. In other words, barring any sort of bullshit setback, This pandemic should be over at least in the United States by July 4th.

                  [–]VigilantMike 28 points29 points  (9 children)

                  My state literally announced today that essential workers won’t get vaccinated faster and gave a time for when every age group will go. Yesterday the state website said sometime in March for me because I’m a grocery worker, now I’m pushed back to May.

                  Not going to lie, I’m kind of pissed.

                  [–][deleted] 9 points10 points  (5 children)

                  Whereas my state just announced that 2 separate medical entities are ramping up campaigns to educate people on getting. The vaccine because people are literally not showing up to appointments and the different groupings of people are having a high number of people refusing to even get it. There is apparently a ton of orphan shots out there. My dad who is 68 went ahead and got on the list but can’t be seen until May 18 at the earliest. I want o be optimistic but I think there are too many dumb people out there and the bottlenecking of distribution is not gonna allow us to be clear as soon as everyone else in this thread thinks.

                  [–]NotTacoSmell 13 points14 points  (3 children)

                  Have friends and family being total shitbags about this. "I want to wait for the guinea pigs to go first I don't want it yet", me: over 25 million guinea pigs have gone already get the damn vaccine if you can

                  load more comments (1 reply)

                    load more comments (3 replies)

                      [–]hannahdoot 11 points12 points  (5 children)

                      Well I would hope so. My 84 year old geezer father in law still hasn't been able to get an appointment here in Washington state. At this rate, he would take an April 1 vaccine in a heartbeat.

                      [–]JExmoorBoosted! ✨💉✅ 5 points6 points  (0 children)

                      Reposting because I initially linked to FB and was deleted:

                      I've seen this issue from a few folks locally (I'm in Washington) and it seems like a bit of a blindspot with the process. Older folks are generally less tech-savvy and most of the sign-ups are online so I'm seeing lots of people concerned about their 70yr+ relatives not being able to book appointments.

                      Best suggestion I've seen is to have multiply family members try to book appointments for the eligible person. Obviously this depends on your family member being willing to take whatever appointment they're offered.

                      There are also a couple of resources for finding vaccine appointments I'm aware of for the state:

                      https://www.covidwa.com/

                      There's a FB group called FindACovidShotWA that I can't link to here.

                      [–]Cunninghams_right 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                      yeah, the rollout has been much worse than it should have been. we knew we had to do this for a year. they should have paid all of the out-of-work folks from last spring/summer to identify and contact elderly folks via social security database (keeping data safe, of course), and they should have hired apple, google, and amazon to create a sign-up list that takes information and prioritizes people. people should not be hammering F5 on a CVS website all day hoping to get an apt while some older person gets jumped in line immediately.

                      load more comments (3 replies)

                        load more comments (1 reply)

                          [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

                          If this is the case then we will be back to normal by May. When all the elderly and at risk are vaccinated, that's the ballgame. Even if you think of the variants, we'll have enough people immunized that we'll start to have some impact from the vaccine. I think summer vacation is on!

                          [–]PeddarCheddar11I'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 6 points7 points  (0 children)

                          At that point whats even the point in restrictions at all besides wash your hands and avoid massive crowds? I see this as very good news to getting back to normal ASAP.

                          load more comments (21 replies)

                            [–]Gratitude15 115 points116 points  (37 children)

                            Alright dudes. This is it. Life is going to change fast. Like nba playoffs with full crowds fast.

                            130M addressed thru vaccines supplied by end of March. 100M estimated already infected by then. That's pretty much herd immunity right there, and then enough for 60M (at least) addressed per month from April onwards.

                            Just getting the March supply in arms by April means we are at herd immunity by memorial day. People will be crying in the streets that long weekend.

                            [–]GameOfThrownaws 73 points74 points  (7 children)

                            130M addressed thru vaccines supplied by end of March. 100M estimated already infected by then. That's pretty much herd immunity right there,

                            There's a big hole in what you're saying here, which is that vaccinations are overlapping with prior infections. We aren't withholding vaccines from people who are naturally immune from the disease. So that's not 130 + 100, it's significantly less than that.

                            That being said I'm not trying to rain on your parade, the numbers look great anyway. We could very well be at or near herd immunity by memorial day.

                            [–]towehaal 27 points28 points  (2 children)

                            And yet group 1b still can’t find appointments in many areas.

                            [–]throwohhaimark2 14 points15 points  (2 children)

                            100 million infected is about 30% of the population, which implies that by chance 30% of our vaccinations will be on people who are already immune. That means it would be closer to 0.7(130) + 100 = 191 million immune if we remove the double counting.

                            (this assumes the number infected remains constant which clearly isn't true, but it should be a decent estimate considering how cases are slowing down)

                            load more comments (1 reply)

                              load more comments (29 replies)

                                [–]darkchocoIateI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 17 points18 points  (49 children)

                                People really need a dose of perspective. How many people would actually prefer to get this effective vaccine in their own doctor's office or at a pharmacy, almost anywhere, in a single dose without needing to stand in line or come back for a second injection? That's what this vaccine can do for people.

                                [–]brainhack3r 15 points16 points  (3 children)

                                100% effective against hospitalization and death.

                                This is the thing. Even a shitty vaccine can probably save your life! That's what most people don't realize.

                                [–]alficles 3 points4 points  (1 child)

                                I don't fully understand the stats, so maybe someone can assist.

                                https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/janssen-investigational-covid-19-vaccine-interim-analysis-phase-3-clinical-data-released

                                There were 44,325 people in the trial. 468 symptomatic cases were studied. 5 died of COVID-19 in the placebo group and none in the vaccine group. So what is the confidence interval on that?

                                Is a reduction from 5 to 0 statistically significant?

                                load more comments (1 reply)

                                  [–]RelaxationMonster 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                                  Bro, I'll take the Nerf vaccine at this point.

                                  [–]tonyocampo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                                  Let’s goooo

                                  [–]space_ape71 4 points5 points  (6 children)

                                  This 100%. No idea why this vaccine was downplayed upon release, it’s extremely effective.

                                  load more comments (42 replies)

                                    [–][deleted] 482 points483 points  (63 children)

                                    This makes me so happy 😁

                                    [–]IanMazgelis 588 points589 points  (56 children)

                                    Unlike Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine, that means 20,000,000 people getting vaccinated, not initiating a vaccination process that takes five or six weeks. If these doses get distributed in March, that would virtually guarantee we pass a third of American adults vaccinated in March. Maybe even two fifths.

                                    I think a majority of adults in April is pretty close to a certainty at this point. Coupled with a third of the country estimated to have been infection, we're going to be getting very, very close to no local transmission within a few months. I think a "mostly normal" summer isn't as much the question anymore as a normal normal May.

                                    [–]GolBlessIt 218 points219 points  (2 children)

                                    That thought makes me tear up honestly

                                    [–]FootballAndBicycles 85 points86 points  (1 child)

                                    I thought Johnson & Johnson's products were meant to be No More Tears...

                                    [–]Rivster79 9 points10 points  (0 children)

                                    😂

                                    [–]WhatMyHeartHeldBoosted! ✨💉✅ 166 points167 points  (8 children)

                                    it's kind of crazy to think most of us have been inside our houses for almost an entire year with a vaccine plan in April that's entirely possible

                                    shit, i want to cry. i can see the light at the end of the tunnel

                                    [–]illegal_deagle 87 points88 points  (6 children)

                                    Got laid off last March and finally it’s looking like I might have a job (third round interview underway). If this March could just be the opposite of last March that would be fantastic.

                                    Edit: man y’all are cool

                                    [–]WhatMyHeartHeldBoosted! ✨💉✅ 18 points19 points  (0 children)

                                    right behind you on that!

                                    got laid off too last month so i'm hoping to land a really nice remote job at home. i like being at my own desk and setup

                                    [–]toadofsteelBoosted! ✨💉✅ 27 points28 points  (0 children)

                                    I got laid off in July, just started a contract gig that has zero benefits, save one: since healthcare is one of the only fields really hiring, I get the vaccine much earlier than I otherwise would have. (Can't be more specific than that because of nondisclosure)

                                    [–]boogie9ign 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                                    Good luck mate, I'm sure you'll crush it!

                                    [–]mtb_devil 5 points6 points  (0 children)

                                    Praying for you 🙏

                                    load more comments (2 replies)

                                      load more comments (1 reply)

                                        [–]UsidoreTheLightBlue 37 points38 points  (8 children)

                                        Keep in mind that those who have been infected still need the vaccine.

                                        I point this out for two reasons:

                                        1) Theres still not sound science on when the natural immunity ends. Some say years, some say weeks.

                                        2) If every person I talked to who goes "Well I swear I had it back in March of last year before we knew what it was, it was like a cold, but longer, and no, I didn't lose smell or taste or have any of the covid specific symptoms but it was a bad cold!" decides they dont need the vaccine because "They already had it" we're just going to prolong this.

                                        [–]crystalblue99 8 points9 points  (1 child)

                                        I had it over Xmas. I do not want it again.

                                        I will be getting the vaccine ASAP.

                                        [–]UsidoreTheLightBlue 3 points4 points  (0 children)

                                        Same, but thanksgiving.

                                        load more comments (6 replies)

                                          [–]ladyinthemoorBoosted! ✨💉✅ 13 points14 points  (7 children)

                                          I always get downvoted for asking this, but I’m really not being pessimistic. Im just curious, so how would this work for the kids? I have two really small kids who would most likely go to school/daycare. I’m very happy about them going back since they need the social interaction, but would the risk be very little since most adults will be vaccinated ? I know it’s not bad for kids, but I would still rather they didn’t get it

                                          [–]dragunityag 5 points6 points  (0 children)

                                          So did some quick googling. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have only been tested in people 16 or older. But Pfizer has recently completed a study in children as young as 12 and Moderna has an ongoing study in children as young as 12.

                                          If the results of those studies are positive they'll move down to 5-11 age groups.

                                          https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/as-the-covid-19-vaccination-rollout-continues-when-will-children-be-vaccinated

                                          load more comments (6 replies)

                                            [–]brainhack3r 20 points21 points  (0 children)

                                            Unlike Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine, that means 20,000,000 people getting vaccinated, not initiating a vaccination process that takes five or six weeks.

                                            This isn't really true. Pfizer and Moderna are VERY effective after the first dose and in the range of JJ. The issue is that the second dose provide a 10x antibody volume response.

                                            [–]Cognidor 24 points25 points  (0 children)

                                            I love you

                                            [–][deleted] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

                                            That’d be pretttttty cool tbh

                                            [–]nadanone 26 points27 points  (4 children)

                                            That’s true and is important to note from resource usage perspective (most efficient use of vaccination clinics time) but slightly misleading because the mRNA vaccines are more effective after a single dose than the J+J is.

                                            [–]Mouthtuom 16 points17 points  (3 children)

                                            With mild and moderate infection. Similar effectiveness with severe infection and prevention of death.

                                            [–]baudinl 9 points10 points  (5 children)

                                            Not the whole picture. It’s marketed as a single dose vaccine because you can only get it once. Because it’s an adenovector based vaccine, the first time you get it you will develop a vector specific response as well as a response to the COVID antigen. This means if you were to try to vaccinate again, the response will be much much weaker because your immune system will attack the vector itself. Overall still good news but it should be noted the JNJ one is ~85% effective whereas the two dose mRNA ones are 95%. A small but ultimately meaningful gap.

                                            load more comments (13 replies)

                                              [–]Palmquistador 37 points38 points  (4 children)

                                              Murglgurgggrrggllll.

                                              load more comments (1 reply)

                                                [–]Wizmaxman 244 points245 points  (148 children)

                                                Any word on if these will goto general population or be just for current qualified groups?

                                                [–]sungazer69 194 points195 points  (73 children)

                                                Varies by state

                                                [–]ryanstrikesback 78 points79 points  (69 children)

                                                DeWine in Ohio gives zero fucks about who is on the front lines, it’s all about age for him. I feel like it’s a glaring misstep to not take risk of exposure into consideration at all.

                                                [–]hatrickstar 223 points224 points  (26 children)

                                                Age is still the biggest factor in hospitalizations

                                                [–][deleted] 101 points102 points  (5 children)

                                                I recall a model discussed in December that compared prioritizing younger people (who we thought were driving transmission, so vaccinating them would more quickly cut spread) vs prioritizing by age (because older people were more likely to have serious cases). The model suggested age based priority would be best, because the difference in risk of serious cases were so heavily weighted to age. The only exception would be health care workers, as they were more likely to be severely ill with covid than other occupations.

                                                [–]hatrickstar 50 points51 points  (3 children)

                                                Exactly, we shut down because hospitals were overrun, getting people over 65 vaccinated helps end that.

                                                [–]Rickles360 12 points13 points  (2 children)

                                                The healthcare professionals are putting their health on the line everyday and picking up after our failure to keep cases at manageable levels. They deserve the vaccine so they can have the piece of mind that they will be safer around their families and and safe at their work place. They deserve a hell of a lot more than that but that's about the best we are going to do for them. I know someone who left a good job over the total lack of regard for patient outcomes via under staffing and under equipping. They are going to work and watching people die every single day, and they can't do enough to help most of them.

                                                Also consider that keeping hospital workers healthy enough to work is very much in our best interest. Hospitals have had outbreaks run rampant that jeopardize their ability to maintain staffing required to take care of pandemic levels of admissions. Hundreds of people out at a time is a bad look so these stories tend to be buried but it happened near me and I'm sure it happened elsewhere.

                                                And lastly they are a relatively smaller group than the age 65 and up so it wasn't a problem to give them 3 weeks to get the vaccine before they opened it to seniors. At least that's how it went in my state.

                                                [–]hatrickstar 9 points10 points  (0 children)

                                                If course you do hospital and medical staff first, in fact most if not all states used that exact same model.

                                                What I'm saying is you don't vaccinate the at large younger population before the 65+ population.

                                                load more comments (1 reply)

                                                  [–]pinkycatcher 12 points13 points  (0 children)

                                                  Yup, there's a lot of different models out there, and there's no "one answer" there's a bunch of "this probably is a good method" so each state running it differently is actually kind of cool because we can see what is working and what isn't and change methods over to those that do work.

                                                  [–]thatroosterinzelda 51 points52 points  (3 children)

                                                  It's also, by far, the simplest to police. Imagine a hypothetical world where we did no risk groups at all and purely just went by age. You could basically strip away 90% of the complexity in managing the process. People could register with a damn google form if you want and folks at the site could just look at their id to make sure they're OK.

                                                  [–]MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS 13 points14 points  (13 children)

                                                  Exposure is still the biggest factor in transmissions

                                                  [–]hatrickstar 23 points24 points  (3 children)

                                                  Except we did not shut everything down to stop transmission, we did it to stop hospitals from getting overrun.

                                                  So, to open back up, we need to keep those down....the easiest way to do that is get everyone over 65 vaccinated first.

                                                  load more comments (9 replies)

                                                    load more comments (2 replies)

                                                      [–]monkeyman88956 16 points17 points  (0 children)

                                                      It is also by far the easiest to project quantities and verify. Going by profession is extremely messy and very difficult to verify.

                                                      [–]milehigh73aBoosted! ✨💉✅ 29 points30 points  (0 children)

                                                      age at least makes sense. I know hospital work from home people that have been vaccinated. Age is directly related to risk factors, and easy to determine.

                                                      [–]hooddolphen 40 points41 points  (26 children)

                                                      to be fair, he makes a good argument. 98% of all covid deaths are 50+, 87% are 65+.

                                                      [–]BoogieOrBogey 24 points25 points  (17 children)

                                                      Important to remember that fatalities are high for people 55+, but many people younger than that have complications after surviving the virus. There isn't a perfect balance on who to vaccinate first though. It's just important to understand the trade off being made.

                                                      load more comments (8 replies)

                                                        [–]CrashCourseInCrazy 10 points11 points  (7 children)

                                                        OK, so if you add up everyone who is on the "front lines" how much % wise of the adult population is that? All the healthcare workers were 1a in most states. Now look at teachers, day care workers, factory workers, grocery store workers, sales people, waitstaff, cooks, flight attendants, bus drivers, clerks, cashiers, anyone still being told to go in to an office, anyone who works in close proximity to others... Not to mention add in anyone in close proximity living situations like high density housing or prisons. I think if you add up anyone who isn't able to isolate working from home currently you get to something like 75%+ of the population. So does it ACTUALLY make sense to prioritize by these factors? Most of the proposals I've seen are just some variation of a certain profession thinking they "deserve" to go first, but not considering all the other professions that meet that risk level also.

                                                        [–]swanny101 7 points8 points  (5 children)

                                                        I looked it up before it’s 75% of population fits into the categories of older than 60, essential worker, or at risk. So pretty much impossible to come up with a good plan other than trickle down by age.

                                                        load more comments (1 reply)

                                                          [–][deleted] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

                                                          that's dumb as fuck. 60 year olds need it more than college aged grocery store workers.

                                                          load more comments (4 replies)

                                                            load more comments (3 replies)

                                                              [–]looktowindwardBoosted! ✨💉✅ 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                                                              At some point, we'll burn through the current group and be in the general population. With these numbers, probably by April

                                                              load more comments (73 replies)

                                                                [–]imbored48375 138 points139 points  (12 children)

                                                                Fantastic. If you take into account the number of people who actually want the vaccine, by late April it will basically be open season.

                                                                [–]VectorPie 43 points44 points  (8 children)

                                                                Anti-vaxxers are in the minority, they are just very vocal.

                                                                load more comments (3 replies)

                                                                  [–][deleted] 88 points89 points  (2 children)

                                                                  Let's fucking go! 20 million more vaccinated people in March is gonna help so much.

                                                                  [–][deleted] 50 points51 points  (5 children)

                                                                  So when will this be approved

                                                                  [–]Juicyjackson[S] 69 points70 points  (2 children)

                                                                  This week, and most likely will be administered this weekend or early next week.

                                                                  [–][deleted] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

                                                                  Oh wow. I’m 29 and can’t wait to get vaccinated.

                                                                  load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                    [–]HereInDet 322 points323 points  (18 children)

                                                                    J&J: Um we will only have a couple million doses ready in March.

                                                                    Biden: I’m going to transfer you to the Chairman of the SEC. He has some questions about your last filing. Hold on...

                                                                    All of sudden the low single digits becomes 20MM

                                                                    [–]wanen 152 points153 points  (14 children)

                                                                    Let's be honest they probably are gonna take some vaccines from other countries/regions for that. An increase like that just does not just appears like that.

                                                                    [–]HereInDet 100 points101 points  (8 children)

                                                                    Totally possible. It’s a cruel card to play but we did pony up the money via OWS. I’d like to see us take every dose we bought from Astra Zeneca and Novavax and just donate them. Flat out donate them to wherever. By the time those two come through we should have plenty for our population already.

                                                                    [–]wanen 68 points69 points  (7 children)

                                                                    There is already a vaccine export ban in the US. A large portion of both j&j & Pfizer will be produced in Europe and exported to the US. Also according the Wiki of ows neither Pfizer nor Biontech has received money from it so the disproportionate delivery between the EU and USA of the biontech vaccine can not be attributed by ows. While the US is removing vaccines from the EU both China and Russia are delivering, it's like a soft power wet dream for them after covid those EU member States Will remember if the USA wants tarrifs on either one.

                                                                    [–]fancy_panterBoosted! ✨💉✅ 21 points22 points  (5 children)

                                                                    Produced is a loaded term. Components of the vaccine are made all over. J&J in particular is cultured in the US and packed in Belgium. So where it’s “produced”? ¯_(ツ)_/¯

                                                                    [–]UncleFerdinand 35 points36 points  (4 children)

                                                                    Got to correct you there buddy. The JnJ vaccine is cultured in Leiden, the Netherlands, and send to the US for bottling to the small vials. Source: I am doing some of the engineering for the Dutch production site.

                                                                    Europe is worried that once the vaccines are shipped for packaging, the batches destined for Europe are blocked by an export ban.

                                                                    [–]inglandationI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 9 points10 points  (1 child)

                                                                    Europe is worried that once the vaccines are shipped for packaging, the batches destined for Europe are blocked by an export ban.

                                                                    That would be extremely shitty.

                                                                    load more comments (2 replies)

                                                                      load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                        [–]pixel_of_moral_decay 15 points16 points  (3 children)

                                                                        Of course. They just negotiated how that will work.

                                                                        Either the US government blocks shipments to other countries (which makes Biden look bad). Or J&J does it willingly.

                                                                        J&J has a few scandals at the moment, so they aren’t going to cross a president only a few weeks into his first term.

                                                                        A democrat controlled government can make lots of subtle changes to make J&J’s life much easier. They know that very well.

                                                                        load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                          load more comments (3 replies)

                                                                            [–]WiidStonks 19 points20 points  (13 children)

                                                                            Are we allowed to somehow arrange to get the J&J vaccine instead of the two others?

                                                                            [–]Cunninghams_right 10 points11 points  (1 child)

                                                                            you may have to ask around. I know in my area the mass-vax centers all got pfizer shipments for a few weeks straight while the hospitals got moderna. so even if you can't request which one, you may be able to control which one by where you sign up.

                                                                            load more comments (11 replies)

                                                                              [–][deleted] 110 points111 points  (12 children)

                                                                              I’d take one right now

                                                                              [–]Chester2707 25 points26 points  (2 children)

                                                                              It’s frustrating and exciting to read about the J&J vaccine because every single time I find something “new” it just seems like it’s 28 months away.

                                                                              [–][deleted] 14 points15 points  (1 child)

                                                                              That’s true. I worked for JNJ for many years. They don’t fuck around, but they are also very slow. Glad they’re getting something to market in 2021.

                                                                              load more comments (9 replies)

                                                                                [–]Worth-Enthusiasm-161Boosted! ✨💉✅ 17 points18 points  (3 children)

                                                                                Great news for the US! 20 million doses in March is a highly significant number. As an European, the optimist in me is saying that this should benefit us too, however I’m worried that most of the doses are going to the US now the supply has increased so much. The vaccine was partially developed in the Netherlands and will be made in the Netherlands and filled in the US.

                                                                                [–]Jakesta42Boosted! ✨💉✅ 182 points183 points  (34 children)

                                                                                This feels like we're getting pretty close to game over for COVID. With 28m confirmed cases (and assuming we catch 1 in 3 cases, that's 90m ish actual cases), that's 26% immune, plus 13% of the population currently vaccinated with at least one dose (which now seems like it's pretty close to fully vaccinated), minus the percentage that overlaps between infected and vaccinated (say, 0.26*13 = 3% ish). So being conservative, that's 36% currently immune.

                                                                                Assuming we need to vaccinate 70% of the population to get permanent herd immunity, that's 238m people. 36% of people currently immune, meaning 122m people, leaves 138 million left to vaccinate.

                                                                                20m J&J doses is 20m additional people vaccinated, which brings us 14% closer to our goal. That doesn't even account for increased Pfizer and Moderna output or Novavax. Huge step, this is great.

                                                                                [–]RAINBOW_DILDO 36 points37 points  (2 children)

                                                                                leaves 218 million left to vaccinate.

                                                                                I think you meant 118 million. 122m+218m would be greater than the US population, unless I’m reading what you said wrong.

                                                                                Around 120m more full vaccinations would get us to herd immunity under the very simplified model. This model fails to take into account reduced transmissibility among some populations (children) and increased transmissibility among other populations (middle-aged adults that develop minor symptoms). It also doesn’t account for the differing effectiveness of the vaccines.

                                                                                But with the way vaccination is going so far, I’d say we’re going to reach functional herd immunity within 90 million more full vaccinations. Easily doable by May.

                                                                                [–]Jakesta42Boosted! ✨💉✅ 25 points26 points  (1 child)

                                                                                Sorry, you're right. In my head the US had 340 million, it's actually 320 million. Also great point on the reduced transmission, that adds an exponential factor to this, in the best possible way.

                                                                                I'm 100% with you on that May estimate. I don't understand why people are perpetually pessimistic about these summer estimates for returning to normalcy, when mathematically that looks to be the direction.

                                                                                [–]rockinghigh 10 points11 points  (0 children)

                                                                                In my head the US had 340 million, it's actually 320 million.

                                                                                It's 330 million: https://www.census.gov/popclock/

                                                                                [–][deleted] 80 points81 points  (8 children)

                                                                                Agree but there are many people who have gotten COVID and are still getting the vaccine anyways, and many of those 2/3 of cases not accounted for were likely unknowingly asymptomatic and will likely get the vaccine as well. Regardless everything is looking very good.

                                                                                [–]Jakesta42Boosted! ✨💉✅ 25 points26 points  (7 children)

                                                                                Totally! That was what I was trying to account for with:

                                                                                minus the percentage that overlaps between infected and vaccinated (say, 0.26*13 = 3% ish).

                                                                                But you're right that'll be something to consider in future numbers

                                                                                [–]MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS 14 points15 points  (2 children)

                                                                                This feels like we're getting pretty close to game over for COVID

                                                                                Assuming no vaccine-escape mutations.

                                                                                [–]con247 10 points11 points  (1 child)

                                                                                That’s my biggest fear at this point. The light is at the end of the tunnel and it’s getting bright. This is why minimizing infections is still incredibly important. Every person that gets the virus is a mutation risk.

                                                                                [–]Throwaway267373774 2 points3 points  (1 child)

                                                                                CDC estimates 1/4.6 case is reported so even better!

                                                                                load more comments (17 replies)

                                                                                  [–]LeonardBenny 12 points13 points  (1 child)

                                                                                  Cries in european

                                                                                  [–]Staccat0 33 points34 points  (7 children)

                                                                                  I’m hyped. I don’t need the fancy one.

                                                                                  [–]Greekphysed 25 points26 points  (3 children)

                                                                                  Same. Save the fancy 2 shots ones for the elderly and front line workers. I'm happy to get the JnJ

                                                                                  [–]Cunninghams_right 9 points10 points  (1 child)

                                                                                  exactly. people are splitting hairs but many of us are low risk anyway, so any vaccine will be enough to protect.

                                                                                  [–]Staccat0 14 points15 points  (0 children)

                                                                                  Yep. 100% reduction in sending me to the hospital is good enough.

                                                                                  load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                                    [–]4and1punt 45 points46 points  (5 children)

                                                                                    Now do Canada

                                                                                    [–]kernerni 9 points10 points  (0 children)

                                                                                    Yes, please! 👋

                                                                                    load more comments (4 replies)

                                                                                      [–]lurkinfapinlurkin 9 points10 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      I'll take them.

                                                                                      [–]chehsu 8 points9 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      I genuinely hope this is true and I genuinely hope that the FDA approves J&J by the end of this week. I am anxiously waiting to get vaccinated.

                                                                                      [–]RoseMylk 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      I really wanna go to outside concerts, travel and go swimming :( I will take the J&J no problem !

                                                                                      [–]SSTX9I'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 8 points9 points  (5 children)

                                                                                      When the fuck can I buy n95 masks??

                                                                                      [–]HelloKiitty 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      Yessss I can’t wait to get stabbed

                                                                                      [–]MooseCupcakes 119 points120 points  (87 children)

                                                                                      Is anyone else dreading the possibility of getting the J&J vaccine because of the lower efficacy compared to moderna and Pfizer? I mean it’s better than nothing but once you get one vaccine, you won’t be able to get another kind for a long while so you’re stuck with less immunity. I’m kinda bummed at hearing they’ll be ready soon and thought I’d see more disappointed comments here. Change my mind??

                                                                                      [–]Ok_Coffee6696 45 points46 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      It is very difficult to compare the mRNA vaccines to JnJ. The trials were performed at different times, in different locations, and with different virus variants. While it seems likely that the Moderna and BioNTech vaccines are more effective, the differences may not be as large as we think.

                                                                                      [–]giantpyrosome 94 points95 points  (8 children)

                                                                                      The J&J vaccine still basically eliminates your risk of serious illness, and at current pace, it seems like you could likely get one of the two-dose vaccines in midsummer which is really not a long wait

                                                                                      Also keep in mind that the effective rate isn’t your risk of getting Covid, it is the percent reduction (so with Pfizer, your risk is reduced by 95%). You don’t have a 100% chance of getting infected, so a 66% reduction in your already-somewhat-small chance of infection is really quite good.

                                                                                      [–]alficles 9 points10 points  (0 children)

                                                                                      To be clear, that's only a 66% reduction in disease severe enough to land you in the hospital. The definition of "moderate disease" is this:

                                                                                      Moderate COVID-19 disease was defined as laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, abnormal respiratory rate (≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19.

                                                                                      https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

                                                                                      Anything less severe than that doesn't count as "sick", even if it incapacitates you. And being infectious doesn't count either, which may matter if you have others in your household or workplace.

                                                                                      load more comments (7 replies)

                                                                                        [–][deleted] 62 points63 points  (0 children)

                                                                                        This seems to be a super unpopular opinion in this sub but I’m glad you’re not being downvoted. It’s a perfectly valid concern

                                                                                        [–]mygawd 25 points26 points  (5 children)

                                                                                        I hear you, but the more people who have some level of immunity, the harder it will be for disease to spread. Regardless of what vaccine you got, if you never get exposed then you won't get infected at all

                                                                                        [–]CeruleanTresses 11 points12 points  (5 children)

                                                                                        The lower efficacy has to do with the prevalence of the variants at the times and locations J&J ran trials. We don't know how how the mRNA vaccines would have performed under the same circumstances. The key thing is that J&J was 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths, despite the variants.

                                                                                        [–]fivetoedslothbearBoosted! ✨💉✅ 25 points26 points  (9 children)

                                                                                        The way I read the J&J reports is “You’ll have a good chance at a bad case, and maybe some long COVID, but at least you wont die.”

                                                                                        I’ll take what they give me, but if what they give me is J&J, it’s better than nothing, and I will still consider myself unvaccinated...no shopping, no shared indoor spaces, no bubbles, no friends, no travel. I already spent six months in severe pain last year, and I’m done suffering for a while. I’ll reconsider when we hit herd immunity or I get one of the really effective vaccines.

                                                                                        I’m 57 with type 2 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, and so I want to reduce the risk as far as possible. We still have no data about the efficacy of the vaccines for those with RA, especially on immunosuppressive treatments.

                                                                                        The “prevents 100% of hospitalization and death” sounds like spin to me. I also don’t know how it prevents 85% of “severe” COVID, if severe means hospitalized, but also 100% of hospitalizations.

                                                                                        [–]FalalaLlamasI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 15 points16 points  (4 children)

                                                                                        I’m younger than you but I agree with everything you said. I have some pretty bad medical problems. I was hoping I’d get some priority, but my state has for some reason put people with medical problems near the back of the vaccine line. Now I’m really worried I’ll have to wait a long time for the vaccine AND be given a less effective one.

                                                                                        I know, with my medical issues, and anxiety, I will not feel protected enough with the J&J one. Like you said, I’ll still behave as if I was unvaccinated. I hope we get a choice. Or they give the J&J one to people that are healthy. I absolutely cannot risk more long term health issues if I get COVID and it causes long term damage. Even if that risk is low.

                                                                                        Tbh, it’s caused me considerable anxiety. I know others see it as irrational, but when you’ve already been SO sick for sooo long, the idea of even a small chance of more illness is gut wrenching :’(

                                                                                        load more comments (4 replies)

                                                                                          [–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                                                                                          Other people getting the better vaccine also helps you, your immunity will only be challenged if you come across an infected person, if there is widespread immunity that will never happen.

                                                                                          Get your vaccine and celebrate every shot in every arm.

                                                                                          [–][deleted] 34 points35 points  (9 children)

                                                                                          Nope. I hate needles and shots. My hope is that I can get the JJ vaccine so that I don't have to go through it twice. I read recently that they Pfizer vaccine might be 85% effective with just one shot, so I'd be happy with a one and done on that, too, if approved. Lower efficacy is an ok trade-off to me because I'm young-ish and all of my people are already vaccinated.

                                                                                          ETA: it's not just hating needles. I had a two hour long panic attack after getting the flu shot this year, and that's safer than the new mRNA vaccines, which are also safe, but higher risk of anaphylaxis than the flu shot.

                                                                                          [–]DagoBeefs 13 points14 points  (3 children)

                                                                                          J&J is actually the only vaccine I'm interested in. I'm not fully on board with mRNA vaccines personally since how new they are. I'd feel much more comfortable taking this since it's a traditional style vaccine.

                                                                                          [–]anythingall 5 points6 points  (1 child)

                                                                                          Ok great. There is something for everyone.

                                                                                          load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                                            load more comments (37 replies)

                                                                                              [–]NMT-FWG 6 points7 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              And it's a single dose vaccine. That means 20 million doses will equal 20 million people. Less work for health systems and health departments to do.

                                                                                              [–]Easy-Ad9286 7 points8 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              I can’t wait to put COVID vaccinated on my resume

                                                                                              [–]PaulMannIV 3 points4 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              I don’t want the company that let Asbestos in baby powder to be handling the vaccines. Is it so difficult to ask for veritable companies to actually work on this?

                                                                                              Of course I want a vaccine, of course I want to be sure it works, likewise the chances of something, anything going wrong has been shown and recorded. On one hand, yes the sooner we can get through this pandemic and stop having to wear these uncomfortable mouth coverings, the sooner we can return to normal-ish life. On the other, between this and the political climates, I don’t know if that will be possible anymore.

                                                                                              [–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              so can I get mine already

                                                                                              I’m sick of hearing about medical workers and old people refusing the vaccine, like ok dude fuck you give me it

                                                                                              I don’t care if they don’t want it just stop holding up the line

                                                                                              [–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              Should I trust the company that knowingly sold talcum powder that cause several cancers

                                                                                              [–]TrifleAlert4724 8 points9 points  (3 children)

                                                                                              I bet Aril and May are the money shot! You can’t produce a stupid amount until it’s legally approved from a business standpoint. Just nuts and bolts

                                                                                              [–]green_text_stories 16 points17 points  (3 children)

                                                                                              I don’t trust J&J at all, if possible I’d prefer a different vaccine.

                                                                                              [–]Fertilize-Abigail 13 points14 points  (2 children)

                                                                                              Yeah Same, some of their scandals regarding their products giving people cancer makes me nervous about them.

                                                                                              [–]Mattho 10 points11 points  (0 children)

                                                                                              Completely different companies producing those products. It's basically a huge brand with many subsidiaries.

                                                                                              load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                                                [–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (2 children)

                                                                                                Can someone just come out and say when the Gen pop will have their shots so I can have some light. My governor is doing nothing.

                                                                                                [–]dangshake 11 points12 points  (1 child)

                                                                                                With or without the cancer Causing talcum powder ?

                                                                                                [–]Financial_Lime_252Boosted! ✨💉✅ 13 points14 points  (1 child)

                                                                                                Great news! Looking like we should get ready for a great summer

                                                                                                [–]Nerdlinger42 11 points12 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                Yeah I'm getting several cases of Corona Extra for this one.

                                                                                                [–][deleted] 9 points10 points  (3 children)

                                                                                                I feel like 100 million vaccines in 100 days is actually feasible now.

                                                                                                [–]anythingall 11 points12 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                Pretty much guaranteed unless something drastic happens.

                                                                                                [–]ISpamL2 8 points9 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                we were actually really close to doing that/ exceeding that before biden even took office

                                                                                                load more comments (1 reply)

                                                                                                  [–]Anianna 5 points6 points  (6 children)

                                                                                                  Does anybody here know if adenovirus-based vaccines are contraindicated for immune deficiencies? Live virus vaccines are contraindicated, and it looks like adenovirus-based vaccines are live virus vaccines. Some of us may need to be careful which vaccination we get.

                                                                                                  [–]financeguy17 4 points5 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                  I dont think they are live virus vaccines. My understanding is that only CanSino is a live attenuated covid virus vaccine. This is a viral vector but not really a live covid virus.

                                                                                                  load more comments (5 replies)

                                                                                                    [–]QuarantineSucksALot 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                    I,d go with the two doses.

                                                                                                    [–]caw7893 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                    My due date is in the middle of April, would love to somehow get both doses before I give birth. Ancillary healthcare here, visiting different medical offices/hospitals each day. Very interesting that eligibility varies wildly by state and county.

                                                                                                    [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (3 children)

                                                                                                    Why do Moderna and Pfizer not just share their recipe with everyone?

                                                                                                    [–]Cunninghams_right 15 points16 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                    the manufacturing is not simple. they do license manufacture but not every lab can make it.

                                                                                                    [–]Type-21 7 points8 points  (1 child)

                                                                                                    In Germany they tried and they found one tiny competitor who was able to switch to their vaccine with only a 3 month retooling of the factory. But even pharma giant Bayer said nope, we have none of the required tech, can't produce it. It's super niche stuff.

                                                                                                    [–]squeaksnu 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                    Does someone have a source discussing if the vaccines (any/all of them) prevent long covid/the long term health issjes that covid can lead to? Not just how bad their covid symptoms are, but if they have the long term damage?

                                                                                                    [–]VIP_Canna 2 points3 points  (0 children)

                                                                                                    Hope it doesn't have asbestos in it like the baby powder

                                                                                                    load more comments (326 replies)