NFL
Team | SI | SN | Y! | B/R | CBS | USA | NFL | ESPN | Avg | SD | CGPR | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas City (1) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1 | ||
2 | Philadelphia (2) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2 | ||
3 | San Francisco (-2) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 5 | ||
4 | Baltimore (5) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 3 | ||
5 | Jacksonville (3) | 9 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 4 | ||
6 | Miami (-3) | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 7 | ||
7 | Dallas (0) | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 9 | ||
8 | Detroit (-3) | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 6 | ||
9 | Buffalo (-3) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 8 | ||
10 | Cleveland (0) | 13 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 11 | ||
11 | Cincinnati (0) | 6 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 11.3 | 2.6 | 18 | ||
12 | Seattle (0) | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 10 | ||
13 | Pittsburgh (3) | 12 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 11.7 | 1.9 | 12 | ||
14 | Atlanta (6) | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 14.6 | 1.4 | 19 | ||
15 | NY Jets (-1) | 14 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 14.9 | 1.1 | 15 | ||
16 | Houston (2) | 16 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16.1 | 1.6 | 13 | ||
17 | LA Rams (0) | 19 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 18.0 | 2.5 | 17 | ||
18 | Tampa Bay (-4) | 20 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 18.0 | 1.8 | 16 | ||
19 | Minnesota (6) | 22 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 19.3 | 2.4 | 14 | ||
20 | LA Chargers (-6) | 18 | 25 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 19.4 | 2.8 | 21 | ||
21 | New Orleans (-2) | 21 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20.6 | 0.8 | 23 | ||
22 | Indianapolis (-1) | 17 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 20 | ||
23 | Las Vegas (-1) | 28 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 24.1 | 2.0 | 24 | ||
24 | Washington (0) | 24 | 23 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 30 | 23 | 24.6 | 2.6 | 27 | ||
25 | Green Bay (-2) | 23 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 25.3 | 1.7 | 25 | ||
26 | New England (5) | 27 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 26.3 | 1.4 | 28 | ||
27 | NY Giants (1) | 25 | 27 | 30 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 27.1 | 2.1 | 30 | ||
28 | Tennessee (-1) | 26 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 27.1 | 1.3 | 22 | ||
29 | Denver (0) | 29 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 31 | 25 | 29 | 28.0 | 2.5 | 29 | ||
30 | Chicago (0) | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 29.3 | 1.0 | 26 | ||
31 | Arizona (-4) | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 30.7 | 0.8 | 31 | ||
32 | Carolina (0) | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 32 |
NFL
[SI] ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/24/week-7-power-rankings-eagles-fly-raiders-nadir-josh-mcdaniels-era )
[CGPR] ( https://old.reddit.com/user/velociraptorfarmer/comments/17f3n78/2023_week_7_nfl_power_rankings/ )
[Reddit] ( )
Subreddit for fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers football team. Discussions about the latest team news, players, highlights, and more! Here we go!
A community for fans of the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams. Whose house? RAMS' HOUSE.
The BIGGEST and BEST subreddit for America's pastime: baseball. The focus is mainly on MLB, but other posts about other leagues and levels are allowed! Mike Trout **For the best user experience, we recommend disabling the Reddit redesign.**
The Minnesota Vikings (1960) kinda have the Senators/Rangers (1961) beat, but that depends on how you view their NFL championship (1969).
ETA - it was pointed out in a comment and double-checked by myself that the Senators/Rangers played their first game before the Vikings did, so that tidbit is, in fact, irrelevant.
The best place on the internet for fantasy football advice and strategy. "Humans need fantasy to be human."
A place to post an opinion you accept may be flawed, in an effort to understand other perspectives on the issue. Enter with a mindset for conversation, not debate.
Sometimes a field goal goes ambiguously over the top of the upright. Some of these look really tough or impossible to call. Why not extent the goalposts another ~20 feet vertically? You can’t tell me this is structurally unsound (or maybe you can?). No way can the refs tell every time. Some kicks would have hit the post if it was taller. Now you have a ref guessing on whether or not a ball would have ricocheted right or left off a hypothetical pole.
A high-dollar organization like the NFL can figure out the construction logistics. Humans have been to space, so we can make a tall, safe goalpost. A laser shining out the top is no good, because we still need to know if the kick would have hit the pole and gone in or out. The only way is more pipe extending further into the sky.
What might CMV? I honestly don’t know. I feel like this argument is unassailable. But please tell me why I’m wrong. I’m definitely open to CMV, but I can’t picture yet what that would take.
ptdotme's NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 7
(By popular demand, see the rankings without the influence of last year's season-ending ratings in my comment below, or here.)
This is OC. I’ve written code to calculate and format NFL team Elo ratings1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without the influence of human bias and emotion. The ratings are based on each team's rating from the previous week, with a "parity reset" applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 20132 season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they're fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.
This is all a work in progress and feedback is appreciated! See prev/next games and past weeks' rankings on my 2023 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.
Note: You may feel teams are ranked too high or low based on recent games, and you may be right. However, the model has been tested and is more accurate when it doesn't overreact to individual games. The goal is model accuracy, not rankings that "look right." 2
Rank | Team | Elo Rating | Record |
---|---|---|---|
1 | San Francisco 49ers | 1561 (-5) | 5-2 |
2 | Buffalo Bills | 1556 (-5) | 4-3 |
3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1547 (+4) | 6-1 |
4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1541 (+5) | 6-1 |
5 | Dallas Cowboys | 1533 | 4-2 |
6 (+3) | Baltimore Ravens | 1531 (+15) | 5-2 |
7 (+1) | Cincinnati Bengals | 1516 | 3-3 |
8 (+2) | Seattle Seahawks | 1515 (+2) | 4-2 |
9 (-2) | Miami Dolphins | 1515 (-5) | 5-2 |
10 (-4) | Detroit Lions | 1513 (-15) | 5-2 |
11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1511 (+3) | 5-2 |
12 | New Orleans Saints | 1503 (-3) | 3-4 |
13 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1501 (-4) | 2-4 |
14 (+1) | Green Bay Packers | 1501 (-2) | 2-4 |
15 (-1) | Los Angeles Rams | 1499 (-5) | 3-4 |
16 | Cleveland Browns | 1498 | 4-2 |
17 (+1) | Minnesota Vikings | 1498 (+6) | 3-4 |
18 (+1) | New York Jets | 1492 | 3-3 |
19 (-2) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1491 (-2) | 3-3 |
20 (+2) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1489 (+4) | 4-2 |
21 (-1) | Tennessee Titans | 1489 | 2-4 |
22 (-1) | Houston Texans | 1487 | 3-3 |
23 (+1) | New England Patriots | 1484 (+5) | 2-5 |
24 (+2) | Atlanta Falcons | 1477 (+2) | 4-3 |
25 (+2) | Indianapolis Colts | 1473 | 3-4 |
26 (-1) | Washington Commanders | 1473 (-3) | 3-4 |
27 (-4) | Las Vegas Raiders | 1470 (-10) | 3-4 |
28 (+4) | Chicago Bears | 1468 (+10) | 2-5 |
29 (+1) | New York Giants | 1468 (+3) | 2-5 |
30 (-2) | Arizona Cardinals | 1468 (-1) | 1-6 |
31 | Denver Broncos | 1467 (+2) | 2-5 |
32 (-3) | Carolina Panthers | 1466 | 0-6 |
The Ravens' statement win over the 6th-ranked Lions earned them a huge 15 Elo points. The Chiefs and Eagles are both about 10 Elo points closer to the top after poor showings from the 49ers and Bills again. The Dolphins and Lions remain in the top 10, but the Jaguars are closing in.
The 49ers and Bills are absolutely not playing anywhere close to top-2 level right now. They are still ranked #1 and #2 because of their wide margins of victory in early-season games, and their relatively close games in the last two weeks. The 49ers have lost two games by a total of 7 points, and the Bills won by 5 points and then lost by 5. The Lions, example, lost by 32 points and thus dropped more in Elo rating. As stated elsewhere, the model is more accurate when it moves more slowly than a human ranker would. Anecdotally, the model did fine by not overreacting to the Eagles' loss last week to the Jets or the Ravens' week 5 loss to the Steelers, and by not (yet) ranking the Lions and Dolphins in the top 5 this season.
1See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...
2Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2011 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2021, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 2011 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.
The official subreddit of the Miami Dolphins football team. Discussions about the latest team news, players, game recaps, and more!
At the beginning of the season, the map is divided into 32 regions, each controlled by a team in the NFL. When a team defeats another team, if the defeated team controls any land, that land is taken by the winner.
https://preview.redd.it/nfl-imperialism-week-7-2023-v0-bn9ob8k583wb1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc714cde0af1e44489f46ebc1642c2d49a5d6a23
Territory Changes
The Commanders lost 2 territories to the Giants
The Lions lost 6 territories to the Ravens
Leaderboard
TEAM | # OF TERRITORIES |
---|---|
Browns | 8 |
Jaguars | 6 |
Jets | 6 |
Ravens | 6 |
Bengals | 2 |
Chiefs | 2 |
Giants | 2 |
49ers have held the most territory this season (27).
Bears, Broncos, Chargers, Panthers, Patriots, Titans, and Vikings are tied for least territory held (1).
To get these scores, I gave each team a point for each territory they held per week (so if a team held 4 territories for 5 weeks, they would get 20 points)
Upcoming Battles
The Bengals are battling the 49ers
The Browns are battling the Seahawks
The Chiefs are battling the Broncos
The Giants are battling the Jets
The Jaguars are battling the Steelers
The Jets are battling the Giants
The Ravens are battling the Cardinals
Hey y'all.
I saw some [discussion today on r/ravens about Jordan Stout] (https://old.reddit.com/r/ravens/comments/17fj451/jonas_as_measured_by_dvoa_the_ravens_are_now_the/k6abh1d/). I personally thought based on the "eye test" that Stout has done a great job punting when called on. The main issue has been our coverage.
TLDR: STOUT KICK GOOD. YES VERY GOOD. CLICK GRAPHS TO SEE!!
Before we get into this. I ain't great at writing stuff, so bear with me or just click the graphs.
The other day I found a cool python library (nfl_data_py) that allows me to pull in play by play data. Below will be a punter analysis from 2023 NFL plays.
I had the hypothesis that avg kick distance and net avg punt blah blah is not really a clean stat to look at. If a kicker is always kicking from midfield or closer their air yards should be lower -> if they're good at their job. Basically all I'm saying is that there needs to be more context than looking at one basic number to understand how good a punter has been.
Here is the avg trend of all 2023 punts.
Here is Jordan Stouts punts highlighted compared to the trend.
You can see a few ducks here and there but overall hes generally under the trendline (which is good woohoo).
Now that just shows us how he compares to the avg. How does he rank?
It seemed to me there were 3 types of punts.
Normal : 60-80 yards
Close : <60 yards
Long : 80-100 yards
I fit a regression to each of these classifications above to get better accuracy. I then compared what we expected from this regression to the actual punt. This difference in predicted and acutal is the residual. If a residual is negative then they got the ball closer to the endzone than expected on their punt.
Below is a table of all punters who have punted at least 10 times this year.
Punter Name | Position Over Expected | Closeish Position Over Expected | Normalish Position Over Expected | Longish Position Over Expected |
---|---|---|---|---|
M.Wishnowsky | -5.095147 | -5.787366 | -6.705677 | 1.737737 |
J.Camarda | -4.117743 | -0.326621 | -6.028003 | -5.939809 |
A.Cole | -3.365845 | -1.660237 | -5.067079 | 1.722549 |
B.Gillikin | -2.738937 | 1.936457 | -3.922180 | -4.766430 |
J.Stout | -2.244263 | -3.396902 | 0.002231 | -9.999217 |
E.Evans | -1.991326 | -0.403613 | -1.442517 | -9.642303 |
B.Anger | -1.978685 | -3.417288 | -1.368389 | -1.593577 |
J.Gillan | -1.663981 | 0.214723 | -1.457053 | -5.660080 |
L.Cooke | -1.545716 | -1.734608 | -0.543813 | -6.735840 |
R.Stonehouse | -1.270124 | 0.253596 | 1.868325 | -13.755661 |
T.Townsend | -1.199672 | -5.622004 | 0.863116 | -0.018451 |
C.Bojorquez | -0.948706 | 4.074234 | -4.148454 | 1.529095 |
M.Dickson | -0.676517 | -0.324625 | 0.137753 | -6.441864 |
S.Martin | -0.642229 | -1.026273 | 0.452249 | -5.154510 |
T.Way | -0.499578 | -0.795246 | -0.891325 | 0.957607 |
R.Wright | -0.406220 | 2.623300 | -1.757727 | 6.070282 |
T.Morstead | -0.054366 | 0.826638 | -0.822645 | 2.895630 |
P.Harvin | 0.092192 | 0.745026 | -0.312023 | 0.310364 |
D.Whelan | 0.167457 | 1.698544 | -0.857627 | 0.868286 |
J.Hekker | 0.213798 | -0.699254 | 1.155231 | -1.226730 |
B.Pinion | 0.234392 | -0.746000 | -0.018674 | 4.209086 |
B.Baringer | 0.284530 | -0.881999 | -0.197143 | 6.414490 |
R.Sanchez | 0.334658 | -3.406723 | 1.730459 | 3.910767 |
J.Fox | 0.404329 | 0.423230 | 0.695983 | -0.586071 |
T.Gill | 1.338723 | 1.871780 | 1.145874 | 0.352692 |
N.Cooney | 2.537539 | 10.366440 | -0.400903 | 16.264160 |
B.Robbins | 2.850867 | 3.172904 | 2.725512 | 2.648422 |
L.Hedley | 2.854772 | 0.200748 | 4.321332 | 5.818355 |
R.Dixon | 3.363950 | -1.619943 | 4.168062 | 6.176338 |
J.Scott | 3.634509 | 3.846689 | 2.315450 | 8.132751 |
J.Bailey | 4.181885 | -1.719782 | 5.430737 | 5.504425 |
T.Zentner | 6.312224 | 7.112798 | 6.983063 | 4.440525 |
Very cool on average Jordan Stout ranks 5th in overall performance. You can see in close and long yard situations he is a beast. And in average yard situations... well hes been average.
Cool little boxplot analysis to understand whats going on here.
What I see in this is that a few ducks have drove his "avg" higher in the normal range punts. So in reality in any situation Jordan Stout punts better than average.
And we can all agree that we are thankful we don't have this guy.
But yeah after looking at this I feel pretty confident in saying that Jordan Stout has been pretty damn good this year. Maybe not elite but hes getting there.
2022 Season graphs for Jordan Stout.
He has improved in close kicks tremendously, which if you pay attention with your eyes does make sense!!
Idk what else to put here. Y'all can ask questions or give me some critiques. Also side note - formatting in reddit sucks geez I need to learn this lol.
TLDR: STOUT KICK GOOD. YES VERY GOOD. CLICK GRAPHS TO SEE!!
Sports News and Highlights from the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, and leagues around the world.
-
The best place on the internet for fantasy football advice and strategy. "Humans need fantasy to be human."
members -
Welcome to the Reddit home of the 6-time Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots of the National Football League.
members -
A place to post the best bulges of the NFL. PLEASE try not to post pics that have already been posted - scroll through the feed. PLEASE DO NOT POST PASSED AWAY PLAYERS! Duplicate posts will be deleted and repeat offenders will be banned.
members -
A subreddit full of heroes - a place for fans of the Around The NFL Podcast to talk about our favorite podcasters, writers, guests and lunatics.
members -
The official subreddit for Detroit Lions football. [NFL, National Football League, NFC North, NFC Central, Black and Blue Division]
members -
Welcome to the Caleb Williams Chicago Bears message board without hypocritical moderators. Feel free to bash the Bears without fear of being banned.
members -
A Subreddit for sharing video clips, statistics, and facts about historical teams, seasons, games, and players.
members -
A place to discuss, report issues, offer ideas, and trades regarding the r/nfl Madden league
members -
A community for fans of the Seattle Seahawks. Go Hawks! Join us on discord: https://discord.gg/seattlesports
members -
A Subreddit for all talk about the Los Angeles Chargers, part of the NFL in the AFC West division.
members -
The Cincinnati Bengals subreddit is a place for Bengals fans to gather and discuss the Bengals. If you are looking for a Cincinnati Bengals forum or message board this is the place for you. Come for game threads, breaking news, memes, and general Cincinnati Bengals fan discussion. WHO DEY!
members -
members