NFL
Team | SI | SN | Y! | B/R | CBS | USA | NFL | ESPN | Avg | SD | CGPR | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | San Francisco (0) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2 | |
2 | Kansas City (1) | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1 | |
3 | Miami (1) | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 4 | |
4 | Philadelphia (-2) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 6 | |
5 | Detroit (0) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 3 | |
6 | Buffalo (0) | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 5 | |
7 | Dallas (0) | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 8 | |
8 | Jacksonville (0) | 10 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 9 | |
9 | Baltimore (1) | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 7 | |
10 | Cleveland (2) | 14 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10.6 | 1.8 | 10 | |
11 | Cincinnati (7) | 6 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11.1 | 2.3 | 17 | |
12 | Seattle (-4) | 13 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12.6 | 1.5 | 11 | |
13 | Tampa Bay (-2) | 16 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 12 | |
14 | LA Chargers (-1) | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 15.0 | 3.4 | 20 | |
15 | NY Jets (8) | 12 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 18 | |
16 | Pittsburgh (-1) | 15 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 9 | 19 | 15 | 15.6 | 4.5 | 14 | |
17 | LA Rams (2) | 18 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 15.8 | 2.4 | 15 | |
18 | Houston (3) | 17 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16.8 | 0.9 | 13 | |
19 | New Orleans (-5) | 19 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18.4 | 1.1 | 19 | |
20 | Atlanta (-4) | 20 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 21.6 | 1.6 | 21 | |
21 | Indianapolis (-4) | 22 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 22 | 21.9 | 2.4 | 16 | |
22 | Las Vegas (3) | 23 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 22.0 | 1.8 | 23 | |
23 | Green Bay (-3) | 21 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 22.3 | 2.0 | 22 | |
24 | Washington (0) | 25 | 21 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 22.4 | 2.0 | 26 | |
25 | Minnesota (1) | 27 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 24.6 | 1.8 | 25 | |
26 | Tennessee (-3) | 24 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25.5 | 0.8 | 24 | |
27 | Arizona (0) | 28 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 28.4 | 1.5 | 27 | |
28 | NY Giants (2) | 26 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 28 | 28.6 | 1.8 | 30 | |
29 | Denver (2) | 30 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 31 | 28.9 | 1.6 | 31 | |
30 | Chicago (-1) | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29.0 | 0.9 | 28 | |
31 | New England (-3) | 32 | 31 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 30.1 | 1.4 | 29 | |
32 | Carolina (0) | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31.9 | 0.4 | 32 |
[SI] ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/17/week-6-power-rankings-upset-49ers-chiefs-eagles )
[CGPR] ( https://old.reddit.com/user/velociraptorfarmer/comments/179pk5y/2023_week_6_nfl_power_rankings/ )
[Reddit] ( )
After tonight's game, i can't help but think there has never been a worse season of football. Refs are putting out flags on every single play but missing obvious game-winning penalties, Swift has ruined Chiefs games, coaches are running braindead plays, there are non-stop commercial breaks, and every other player is injured. NFL games just aren't fun to watch anymore.
TNF on Prime Video
Jaguars-Saints: Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung
Also: WFOX-Jacksonville, WDSU-New Orleans
Sunday 10/22:
FOX
Lions-Ravens: Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi
Steelers-Rams: Adam Amin, Daryl Johnston, Pam Oliver
Falcons-Buccaneers: Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth, Kristina Pink
Cardinals-Seahawks: Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma, Shannon Spake
Raiders-Bears: Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez, Laura Okmin
CBS
Chargers-Chiefs: CBS. Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson
Bills-Patriots: CBS. Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn
Packers-Broncos: Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins
Commanders-Giants: Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan, AJ Ross
Browns-Colts: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta, Amanda Renner
SNF on NBC
Dolphins-Eagles: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark
MNF on ESPN/ABC
49ers-Vikings: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters
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ptdotme's NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 6
(By popular demand, see the rankings without the influence of last year's season-ending ratings in my comment below, or here.)
This is OC. I’ve written code to calculate and format NFL team Elo ratings1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without the influence of human bias and emotion. The ratings are based on each team's rating from the previous week, with a "parity reset" applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 20132 season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they're fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.
This is all a work in progress and feedback is appreciated! See prev/next games and past weeks' rankings on my 2023 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.
Note: You may feel teams are ranked too high or low based on recent games, and you may be right. However, the model has been tested and is more accurate when it doesn't overreact to individual games. The goal is model accuracy, not rankings that "look right." 2
Rank | Team | Elo Rating | Record |
---|---|---|---|
1 | San Francisco 49ers | 1566 (-4) | 5-1 |
2 | Buffalo Bills | 1561 (-5) | 4-2 |
3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1543 | 5-1 |
4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1536 (-4) | 5-1 |
5 | Dallas Cowboys | 1533 | 4-2 |
6 | Detroit Lions | 1528 (+6) | 5-1 |
7 (+3) | Miami Dolphins | 1520 (+8) | 5-1 |
8 (-1) | Cincinnati Bengals | 1516 | 3-3 |
9 | Baltimore Ravens | 1516 (+2) | 4-2 |
10 (-2) | Seattle Seahawks | 1513 (-1) | 3-2 |
11 (+3) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1508 (+7) | 4-2 |
12 (-1) | New Orleans Saints | 1506 (-4) | 3-3 |
13 (-1) | Los Angeles Chargers | 1505 | 2-3 |
14 (+2) | Los Angeles Rams | 1504 (+7) | 3-3 |
15 (-2) | Green Bay Packers | 1503 | 2-3 |
16 (+1) | Cleveland Browns | 1498 (+4) | 3-2 |
17 (-2) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1493 (-6) | 3-2 |
18 | Minnesota Vikings | 1492 (+1) | 2-4 |
19 (+1) | New York Jets | 1492 (+5) | 3-3 |
20 (-1) | Tennessee Titans | 1489 (-2) | 2-4 |
21 (+1) | Houston Texans | 1487 (+4) | 3-3 |
22 (-1) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1485 | 3-2 |
23 (+1) | Las Vegas Raiders | 1480 | 3-3 |
24 (+2) | New England Patriots | 1479 | 1-5 |
25 (+4) | Washington Commanders | 1476 (+5) | 3-3 |
26 (-1) | Atlanta Falcons | 1475 (-4) | 3-3 |
27 (-4) | Indianapolis Colts | 1473 (-7) | 3-3 |
28 (-1) | Arizona Cardinals | 1469 (-7) | 1-5 |
29 (-1) | Carolina Panthers | 1466 (-9) | 0-6 |
30 (+1) | New York Giants | 1465 (+5) | 1-5 |
31 (-1) | Denver Broncos | 1465 | 1-5 |
32 | Chicago Bears | 1458 (-2) | 1-5 |
The top 5 teams all looked vulnerable. The Chiefs did not win by a wide enough margin to increase their Elo rating. The Bills lost one more Elo rating point than the 49ers did. The Eagles lost by only 6 points, on the road, and therefore only lost 4 Elo points. After a lackluster showing by all of them, the top 5 teams stand unchanged from last week.
The Lions continue to approach a top 5 rating. They gained ground on the Cowboys, and are now only 5 Elo points behind them. The Cowboys' win over the Chargers, by 3 points, was the exact expected outcome so neither of those teams' Elo ratings changed this week.
The Dolphins again won by a healthy margin, and gained enough Elo points to move into 7th place.
The Bengals performed largely as expected by the model, and took less than 1 full Elo point from the Seahawks.
The Ravens performed slightly better than expected in the UK, and leapfrogged the Seahawks. Both of those teams remain in the top 10 for now.
1See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who did they beat/lose to and by how much? And who did they beat/lose to ...
2Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2011 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2021, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 2011 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.
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