Posts about NFL
USC Alum and Bears fan here. I'm tired of/mildly infuriated by the vocal minority of my fellow Bears fans wanting to move on from our guy just as he's becoming who we hoped he'd be. Moreover, we're wanting to move on to an inferior player.
I've watched both QBs a lot. I think Justin is better, straight up, and has more potential, straight up. All of the Caleb Williams takes are going to end up looking very, very foolish, very, very soon.
First of all, let's look at the stats. Here are three QBs in Lincoln Riley's offensive system
Player 1 285 comp 404 att 70.5 comp % 4627 yds 43 TDs 6 INTs 198.9 RTG
Player 2 260 comp 377 att 69.0 comp % 4361 YDs 42 TDs 7 INTs 199.2 RTG
Player 3 333 comp 500 att 66.6 comp % 4537 YD 42 TDs 5 INTs 168.5
Pretty similar stats right? The system is as QB friendly as it gets. Player 1 is Baker Mayfield. Player 2 is Kyler Murray. Player 3 (the guy with the worst completion %) is Caleb. Both of those other two guys were number one overall picks. Would you want either of them over Justin?
Secondly, let's look at tendencies you see on tape/film. Caleb plays at one of the premier college programs in the country. His program has more talent at every position than any other opponent he is likely to play. His offensive line and WRs are superior to the DL and secondaries he is playing against. Perhaps as a result, Caleb holds onto the ball for a LONG LONG time. He scrambles away from less talented athletes than him to extend plays, and waits for his more talented receivers to win downfield. Even still, he throws a lot of contested balls. He very rarely throws "on time" or "with anticipation," things Justin is starting to do a lot of. He's not as fast as Justin is (4.65 vs. 4.4), and will have a harder time getting away from NFL DEs than Justin does. He's looking for home run balls (sound familiar)? AND, imo, has a significantly WORSE deep ball than Justin does. You almost never see Caleb throw those perfectly placed deep balls to his guy in one on one coverage 40 yards downfield like Justin does (he even did it last year with EQ and Pettis as his number 2 and 3 guys).
Caleb's worst games are against his highest ranked competition. He has not played a ranked team yet this year. The best opponent he played last year was Utah (11). Later this year, they'll be playing Notre Dame (this weekend), Oregon, and Washington. I think he'll look human, even though they all have less talent than USC does. In the Utah game, he had Jordan Addison (currently tearing up the NFL) as his # 1 receiver. Take a look at how he performed against them here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLE6-Q2-4dc
Do you see a single play Justin wouldn't make or make better? I think we may forget how unbelievable Justin was as a prospect. For an apples to apples comparison, let's take a look at how Justin performed against a Michigan team (finished 18) with Aidan Hutchison breathing down his neck all game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Sz1I_hCNfU
How about against Clemson (Finished 3):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrbXTMccOLY&t=1346s
Pretty special shit, right? In both games, he comes back from what look like brutal injuries to absolutely dominate a team that, on paper, has comparable talent. Caleb Williams hasn't put anything on tape anywhere close to either of these two games.
Now let's take a look at what's happened so far in Justin's NFL career. I think we all agree that few, if any, young quarterbacks have had to deal with a worse situation in terms of coaching and talent as Justin has. And yet, even in those adverse circumstances, he has done things no QB in the NFL has ever done. Last year, he put up 2 of the top 10 single game rushing performances by a QB ever (including the best ever). The only reason he didn't break the single season record for QB rush yards is because they shut him down at the end of the season. He often got the absolute shit beat out of him trying to win for our team. I would argue he ran so often because he trusted himself more than he trusted the other guys on the team (for good reason, even Mooney dropped big plays last year). The fact that he looks like he does now, in spite of what the Bears organization (and frankly, Bears fans) have put him through, is truly remarkable.
Now, he has a decent O line and some talent on the perimeter. And a coordinator is designing our gameplans around his strengths. Not coincidentally, you're starting to see him do all of the things we have wanted him to do since he got here. If you watch those college games, he looks a hell of a lot like that guy we saw at Ohio State. He is dominating. He is going to continue to dominate. If you don't believe me, ask Justin Jefferson:
(https://twitter.com/bearssznn/status/1711832648275083651)
This is it. This is the player we've been waiting for at QB. He is making the year three leap that we have been talking about and hoping for for two years, and now, because of a bad start due to horrible gameplanning and OL play, we're talking about replacing him with a guy who, IMO, has proven less and looks worse.
I get it guys, we haven't seen good quarterbacking in this town for most of our lifetimes. As a result, some of us wouldn't know it if it hit us in the face. But over the past two games, Justin has put up passing numbers no Bears QB has ever put up. Over the past two years, Justin has done things no QB in the NFL has ever done. Expect it to continue. Frankly, expect it to improve--if we've learned anything about this kid over the last two years, it's that he works hard and continues to get better. Enjoy the ride, get behind our guy, and stop looking elsewhere for the answer.
