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โ€ขPosted by10 hours ago
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Weโ€™re one month into the NFL season and itโ€™s time for our first power rankings over the year. While there are teams we feel more or less confident about in our opinions on them, generally I believe we have a good understanding for who the main contenders in both conferences are and which ten plus/minus two teams have a legit shot at lifting up that Lombardi trophy in February. At the same time, there may be about the same amount of groups I feel like donโ€™t have real playoff aspirations. Thatโ€™s why the middle of the pack may end up being so interesting, to see who still rises of falls.

As always, these are rankings, not standings. I did not want to simply list teams by record and then shuffle them around a bit, but rather actually evaluate how good these 32 franchises are right now. I will incorporate a lot of numbers to support my case, but also try to add the needed context to them, based on what I see on film. That means even if we have two teams with the same record and one of them beat the other head-to-head, that doesnโ€™t automatically determine their order.

Letโ€™s get into the list:


(Please note that I have watched every single game so far and these rankings are based on my evaluations. Feel free to disagree, but I will ignore any standard "do you even watch the games" comments.)



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1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0)

If Iโ€™m being honest, this was a pretty easy choice. Only the Eagles and 49ers are still undefeated. Philly has won by a touchdown on average, San Francisco by an average of 16.8 points and if not for the Rams kicking a meaningless field goal against them with zeroes on the clock, they wouldโ€™ve won each matchup by multiple scores. Theyโ€™re obviously the only team in the top-three in terms of points scored and allowed. Their offense ranks behind only the Dolphins in EPA per play (0.236) and Brock Purdy is currently on pace for the greatest EPA per play season of any quarterback in NFL history (0.456). When they have their full arsenal of skill-position weaponry with Kyle Shanahan continuing to expand the playbook, theyโ€™re nearly unstoppable. Any of their guys can create explosives, but they can also grind down their opponents, as we just saw with 30(!) first downs gained on just 53 plays vs. the Cardinals, and theyโ€™ve only turned the ball over once. Their defense has not quite been as dominant statistically, but their big free agency addition Javon Hargrave has been the most effective interior pass-rusher in the league, second-year edge defender Drake Jackson has certainly taken a step, Isaiah Oliverโ€™s physicality and match-coverage skills have provided an upgrade at nickel and the numbers look better than what they actually would be if there wasnโ€™t as much garbage time in their games. They have a huge matchup at home vs. the Cowboys coming up Sunday night however.


2. Buffalo Bills (3-1)

This has arguably been the most effective team in the league, when you consider theyโ€™re currently third in EPA per play on offense (0.203) and fourth in that regard on defense (-0.192). I didnโ€™t want to use the term โ€œcompleteโ€ because I still donโ€™t think theyโ€™re a great rushing team, but they can take advantage of favorable looks when defenses keep two safeties deep. Josh Allen currently towers over the rest of the league in terms of completion percentage above expected (9.7%), making some of the most ludicrous throws youโ€™ll see every week look effortless. And while Stefon Diggs is currently putting on a clinic routing up defenders to be that high-volume number one, I believe there is room and reason to believe those ancillary pass-catchers will become more prominent going forward. Their defense has been highly impressive statistically, ranking fourth in EPA per play, being tied for a league-high 16 sacks and leading the pack with 11 takeaways. However, more importantly, they just held to Miami to season-lows in yards per play, points and basically all the advanced metrics. Losing Treโ€™Davious White for the season with an Achilles tear really sucks โ€“ and I feel sick to my stomach for him โ€“ but their institutional understanding for how to make everything on the back-end feel compressed by the way they squeeze down patterns in zone coverage is tremendous, their D-line has taken another big step collectively and hold on, Von Miller might be back next week.


3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

Iโ€™m sure a lot of people will argue Philly should be number two, since theyโ€™re the only other undefeated team left, but it just hasnโ€™t nearly felt as easy for them so far as it did last year. They won three of their games by six points or less to the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders this past Sunday, when they needed overtime, who are a combined 4-and-8. Having a perfect record with the 10th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense a month into the season is almost unheard of. The Eagles arenโ€™t the same kind of efficient passing attacks they were in 2022, when they got a ton of freebies in the RPO game, but theyโ€™ve gained a league-high 43 first downs on the ground (second with 661 rushing yards) and then they take their shots down the field off that, as Jalen Hurts currently is second in terms of average intended air yards (9.8), according to Next Gen Stats. So far it has mostly felt like whenever theyโ€™ve really wanted to grind people down with the run game, theyโ€™ve been able to and Dโ€™Andre Swift has given them some more juice in that regard, while DeVonta Smith and now also A.J. Brown are back to dunking on defenders. I am concerned with the defense however, because while their duo of Georgia first-round D-tackles have acclimated themselves wonderfully, theyโ€™re banged up in the secondary and theyโ€™ve now allowed Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Sam Howell to have the best days of their respective seasons.


4. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)

I thought about putting the Chiefs at number three, because their only loss came by one point in the season-opener versus the Lions, when they were missing Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, while having a freak pick-six off the hands of Kadarius Toney run back against them. Yet, we can also spin this the other way, where things may look very different if one Jaguars receiver manages to keep both feet in bounds for touchdowns on three or four occasions and someone jumps on the snap off Zach Wilsonโ€™s knee or the referees call things a little less in their favor against the Jets, and this team is at best .500, โ€˜ve with one of their wins being a blowout over the toothless Bears. As per usual, the smarter choice is to believe KC will figure things out. Especially, since the part that needs to improve the most is the passing game and even after an uncommonly tumultuous performance, betting against Patrick Mahomes isnโ€™t very smart. He just refuses to get sacked by the way, as his percentage of dropbacks ending with him on the ground (1.3%) is less than half the rate of any other QB, despite both his tackles having really struggled, with Jawaan Taylor leading all NFL players in penalties. Defensively, theyโ€™re currently fifth in EPA per play (-0.129) and third in opposing success rate (38.8%). Sure, they just allowed Zach Wilson to arguably have the best performance of his career, but theyโ€™ve stopped the run very well and Steve Spagnuolo has that versatile backfield tunes in, which is why theyโ€™re top-ten in third-down (33.3%) and red-zone TD percentage (45.5%).


5. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The loss at Arizona was really weird. They were missing a couple of starters, made a couple of uncommon mistakes and probably just didnโ€™t take their opponents very seriously. Outside of that game, theyโ€™ve outscored the two New York teams and the Patriots by a combined score of 108-to-13, handing Bill Belichick the worst loss of his coaching career. The defense has been absolutely dominant, ranking behind only the Browns in EPA per play (-0.269). Outside of the Cardinals game, the Cowboys D has allowed just one other touchdown, while having scored three such themselves, plus another one on a blocked field goal. Theyโ€™ve held opposing quarterbacks to a league-worst passer rating of 55.6, only the Bills have sacked those guys at a higher rate of dropbacks (11.5%) and theyโ€™re the only team with single-digit tackles missed (eight). So even when they allow quarterbacks to get the ball out, either thereโ€™s somebody who gets their hands on it themselves or theyโ€™re ready to shut down whoever comes up with it quickly. Meanwhile, other than that one bad end-zone interception he threw vs. Arizona, Dak hasnโ€™t turned the ball over otherwise and heโ€™s seventh in EPA per play (0.186) league-wide. The O-line has provided them a great baseline to work with in both facets and they lead the NFL in third-down percentage (51.6%). The only real blemish on their resume is the red-zone efficiency, having converted just 36.8% of those trips into touchdowns (30th in the league). Maybe above all though, theyโ€™re number one in what I coined the HRF statistic a couple of years ago, starting their drives a full nine yards further ahead on average than their opponents (32.8- vs. 23.8-yard line).


6. Miami Dolphins (3-1)

After watching them lose 48-20 at Buffalo this past Sunday, I was wondering how far I may end up dropping the Dolphins, but then I realized that not only are there maybe three defenses in the league that could do to them what the Bills laid out there, but after a trip to the lowly Giants this Sunday, they should have their starting center and left tackle back โ€“ which were huge factors in their defeat. Even following their game against the Bills, where they only scored six more points following consecutive touchdown drives to start the day, Miami easily leads the league with 8.0 yards per play โ€“ 1.7 yards clear of any other team in the league โ€“ and theyโ€™ve got some separation in terms of the number two team in EPA per play (0.293). Tua is still first in yards per attempt (9.6) despite the shortest time to throw among all NFL quarterbacks (2.37 seconds) and this is mostly based on a couple of long house-calls against the Broncos, but Devon Achane currently has twice as many average rushing yards over expected than any other running back with 20+ carries right now (6.39 yards). This doesnโ€™t feel like what we saw from December onwards last year in terms of teams โ€œfiguring outโ€ how to slow down this explosive attack. With that being said, we need to see this defense become more disruptive, as currently no other team has allowed opposing offenses to reach a higher success rate (51.3%).


7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

As Robert Mays put it so appropriately on Sunday afternoon โ€œLamar Jackson made five plays in [the Browns] game that would simply make me quit the profession if I were a defensive coordinatorโ€. Baltimore is fifth in offensive success rate so far (47.6%) and thatโ€™s despite Lamar throwing the ball 2.6 yards short of the sticks on average (ahead of only Bryce Young and Daniel Jones among starters). And while the rushing attack has yet to really pop, they do move the sticks efficiently on the ground, as only the Eagles have gained more rushing first downs (37). Plus, when they do move the ball, they put it in the paint, as they lead the league with an 80.0% touchdown rate in the red-zone. Thatโ€™s with room upwards, when their receiving corp is fully healthy and they figure out the optimal allocation of this backfield. Meanwhile, theyโ€™ve been able to overcome several injuries on defense so far. Theyโ€™re currently top-three in EPA per play (-0.217) and success rate against (37.5%), as well as tied for first with the Browns in yards per play (3.8 YPP), Only allowed opponents to convert 30% of red-zone trips in touchdowns. They may not have a standout pass-rusher, but they have bunch of guys that can collapse the pocket, as theyโ€™re bringing a bunch of simulated pressures and change the picture post-snap to force QBs to hold onto the field, plus off that theyโ€™ve been able to create open lanes for their linebackers and Kyle Hamilton as part of the rush.


8. Detroit Lions (3-1)

While I had the Lions winning the NFC North with a 10-7 record in my full season predictions. that was in part due to what I thought was a weak division and I expected some negative regression from what they looked like over the second half of last season. However, they actually look like a much more complete team now. Their offense currently ranks behind only the Dolphins and 49ers in net yards per pass attempt (7.3) and Jared Goff is tied for second with 18 passes of 20+ yards. And while the rushing attack isnโ€™t overly efficient due to the heavy volume, particularly in positive game-script, they have the O-line to win up front in key situations and a play-caller in Ben Johnson who keeps defenses guessing, with the diversity of run schemes and little wrinkles he adds on a weekly basis in the pass game. The bigger story here however has been their defense, which currently ranks top-ten in EPA per play (-0.090) and success rate against (41.6%). The two main reasons for their turnaround are a much more capable pass-rush, ranking second to only the Browns with a 27.7% pressure rate, and after getting pounded on the ground for stretches last season, right now theyโ€™re tied with the Browns for the lowest success rate allowed vs. the run (30.0%) and second in yards per attempt (3.0). Aidan Hutchinson is becoming a force off the edge, rookie slot defender Brian Branch has made his presence felt on numerous occasions and theyโ€™ve been much more consistent with making the correct reads and providing help in coverage on the second level.



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9. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

This is another one of those 3-1 teams that started the season with a head-scratcher, losing by three scores to the Rams in the opener. However, theyโ€™ve run the table since then, beating the Lions in overtime before taking scare of the Panthers and Giants by 10 and 21 respectively. Geno Smith has continued to look in full control, theyโ€™ve been able to withstand the loss of both starting tackles for a stretch now and their run game isnโ€™t as hit-or-miss anymore, as Kenneth Walker ranks top-five in missed tackles forced (???) but also rushing success rate (54.6%). I still donโ€™t really know what to make of this defense. Theyโ€™ve massively improved their run defense, even if the competition hasnโ€™t been great in that regard, ranking third in yards allowed per rush (3.2). However, their 11-sack performance at New York overshadows the fact that they had just five coming into that day. Theyโ€™ll have to hope this wakes up their pass-rush powered by a lot of young guys, but other opponents will have more answers to take advantage of the lesser resources in coverage when they bring extra pressure. Even with the thrashing of the Giants on Monday night, the Seahawks are second-to-worst in third down rate defensively (52.4%) โ€“ theyโ€™re just closer to 30 than 32 now โ€“ and prior to the Devon Witherspoon pick-six, they had yet to keep an opposing team out of the paint when they were able to get into the red-zone (7-of-8). They do need to play a cleaner brand of football though, as only the Cardinals have given away more free yardage via penalty (291) so far.


10. Cleveland Browns (2-2)

Obviously, losing 28-3 at home to the Ravens, when you couldโ€™ve had sole possession of the AFC North really stinks โ€“ and so did giving away that week two game at Pittsburgh to an inferior opponent, because you allowed them to start and end the day with defensive touchdowns. However, with the landscape of that division outside of Baltimore and the baseline this defense gives them, thereโ€™s still plenty of hope for optimism. Even after Lamar Jackson pulled out like four or five Houdini tricks that should make opponents want to quit, Cleveland is number one in EPA per play defensively (-0.279), after finishing each of the prior three weeks with the top mark in that regard league-wide, along easily the lowest success rate from an offensive perspective against them (30.1%). Nobody has created more tackles for loss (27), pressured the quarterback at a higher rate (27.9%) or held opponents to a lower third-down rate (22.6%). Myles Garrett has been game-wrecker lining up all over the place, setting the table for the rest of that front, they have the best trio of corners in the league and theyโ€™re getting major contributions from guys like Grant Delpit. On the flipside, theyโ€™re tied for only 29th in offensive EPA per play (-0.179), despite being top-five in rushing yards. Thereโ€™s reason for hope, because while Deshaun Watson is inviting too much pressure by holding onto the ball and his accuracy has been shaky, he did look his best when last seen. But you canโ€™t be that anemic offensively and be tied for the second-most giveaways across the league (ten) if you want to be a true player in the AFC.


11. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

This Jaguars team has probably been equally surprising in a positive and negative sense. Coming into the year, I thought they were set up to be a top-five offense with a defense capable of making plays whilst being in positive game-script situations, in an AFC South they clearly stood above. Well, not only has the division been a lot better than expected, with all four teams being 2-2 right now, but my expectations have been flipped for Jacksonvilleโ€™s two sides of the ball. The Trevor Lawrence-Calvin Ridley connection got off to a blazing-hot start, but has since been much more sporadic, rather than the go-to whenever opponents overplay the โ€œconcept sideโ€ with Ridley on the backside. Only Tua has a lower time to throw across the NFL than Trevor (2.44 seconds), he has just seven completions of 20+ yards week one and while Travis Etienne has been a lot more efficient on a snap-to-snap basis, he has just one carry of 12+ yards since week one himself. Plus, then theyโ€™re 30th in third-down rate (31.4%). As we flip things around, their defense right now is top-seven in EPA per play (-0.100) and success rate against (40.4%), while having taking the ball away nine times. We need to see more from the rest of that pass rush, but their third in rushing success rate against (31.8%) and Josh Allen has played like a star, as I outlined prior to his three-sack plus game-sealing strip performance this past Sunday against the Falcons in London.


12. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)

Is there a team in the NFL that makes you jump out of your chair more often for positive as well as negative reasons than the Chargers? They could easily be 4-0 but also 0-4 right now. So being .500 probably is appropriated. Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind right now and while the offense without Mike Williams is looking for guys to actually cash them in โ€“ preferably first-round pick Quentin Johnston โ€“ itโ€™s great to see him lead the NFL in passes attempted of 20+ air yards (23). Under new OC Kellen Moore, that unit is fifth in offensive EPA per play (0.100) and theyโ€™ve only turned the ball over twice. They havenโ€™t been effective running the ball since a shocking 200-yard performance vs. Miamiโ€™s soft box looks, but their pass concepts lend themselves to a lot more yardage created by their pass-catcher, as theyโ€™re currently top-ten in YAC/reception (5.0 yards). Unfortunately, the defense has been an abomination masked a little bit by facing the Raiders with a day-three rookie QB last week, who Khalil Mack sacked six(!) times after producing just three sacks and nine QB hits over the prior 18 games in L.A. Only the Broncos and Bears have allowed more yards per play than the Bolts (5.9 YPP) and for a defense built on taking explosive plays, they lead the league in that regard with 31 such allowed (20+ yards). That combined with Brandon Staleyโ€™s schizophrenic fourth-down tendencies and telling defenders to go down instead of trying to score a touchdown in a one-score game is rough to watch.


13. Green Bay Packers (2-2)

The Jordan Love hype train certainly took a hit last Thursday night. He already came into the day with what wouldโ€™ve easily been the highest uncatchable rate of passes last year (31.5%) and because he was pressured on a season-high rate (29.3%), he threw a couple of bad picks (after he had one INT coming in). Iโ€™d say Love leading the league in average intended air yards (10.2) doesnโ€™t properly tell the story, because itโ€™s a lot of crossers and dump-offs to guys on leak routes along with the designed deep shots off play-action, rather than somebody who just rips throws into tight windows. I do believe with a fully healthy Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, they can be an above-average offense, with how Love has executed the Matt LaFleur offense, along with having added something extra with his legs, as only Josh Dobbs of all people averages more yards per scramble so far (11.0 yards per). There are things to get excited about for this defense, as theyโ€™re right on the fringe of the top-ten in yards per play (5.0) and third-down rate (33.9%). Yet again they struggle to stop the run consistently, with how much DC Joe Barry relies on two-high safety structures, but when they do get opponents into designated passing situations, Rashan Gary and company can apply heat, as theyโ€™re ranked third in pressure rate (27.1%). Unfortunately, that unit will continue to struggle against more well-balanced offenses, I fear.


14. Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

How well this upstart L.A. team has looked like over the first month of the season at least, has been one of the more pleasant surprises so far. Theyโ€™re not overwhelming in any one area, but theyโ€™re just really solid across the board I feel like. Right now, theyโ€™re in the top top-ten in offensive (45.1%) and defensive success rate against (41.5%). I talked about how Kyren Williams has been a true three-down back for this group last week, even though he may not create a ton of explosives. The Rams so far have just one run of over 20+ yards, but Matt Stafford is tied for second with 18 passes of such yardage. Sean McVay has really evolved in terms of using motion and stacks/bunches to mess with defensive rules and Matt Stafford has been an ice-cold killer, ripping those intermediate to deep throws all over the field with rushers in his face throughout September. In terms of their defense, casual NFL fans wouldโ€™ve been maybe been able to name starter other than Aaron Donald, but several of their young guys have stepped up and theyโ€™re playing great team ball. They donโ€™t create of negative plays, as theyโ€™re tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss and the fourth-lowest sack total (seven). However, they have been very good situationally under DC Raheem Morris, as only the Browns have surrendered a lower third-down conversion rate in the league (26.7%) and despite their opponents already starting at the 32.3-yard line on average, they stop those guys just short of midfield based on the yardage they usually surrender per drive (27.3).


15. Tennessee Titans (2-2)

Seeing Derrick Henry finally wake up this past Sunday against the Bengals was very encouraging, as he easily reached season-highs in rushing yards (122) and per-carry average (5.55). I like what third-rookie Tyjae Spears has provided as a change-of-pace option and someone who they can have on the field at the same time as King Henry. With that being said, they severely lack dynamism at pass-catcher, with less than 30% of Ryan Tannehillโ€™s attempted passing resulting in a first down, and they only rank 30th in offensive success rate (38.8%). Tannehill is pushing the ball down the field, as he ranks behind only Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts in terms of the top marks in intended air yards per attempt (9.5 yards), but too many of those leave you scratching your head, reading leverage the wrong way or just putting it up there for grabs, like his completely unnecessary pick up 27-3 on a random second down, right into the hands of an awaiting Bengals safety this past Sunday. Defensively, theyโ€™ve had some issues on the back-end coverage-wise, but yet again theyโ€™re an elite run-stopping unit with Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart constantly re-setting the line of scrimmage, allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry and being just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26). Thatโ€™s how offenses trying to stay balanced get pushed behind the chains and then you have guys like Denico Autry and Arden Key creating problems rushing from all over the line.


16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Do I believe the Bucs are a legit 3-1 team, who will be a real factor in the playoffs? No. But can they continue to win games against teams outside the top-ten โ€“ which the NFC South consists of entirely โ€“ and ultimately somehow win that division? Sure. Their defense is playing out their minds right now, ranking sixth league-in EPA per play (-0.110). Personnel-wise they look quite similar to their Super Bowl run three years ago, but their veterans have aged very well, Antoine Winfield Jr. โ€“ who was a rookie that season โ€“ is playing at an All-Pro level right now and theyโ€™re getting key contributions from someone like Christian Izien, whoโ€™s been the best nickel among rookies so far. Offensively, theyโ€™re still just under three yards per rush and if Mike Evans misses any extended stretch, Iโ€™m worried about the weaponry they have, but while Baker Mayfield had a potential pick-six dropped early on Sunday, he once again made a couple of tremendous extension plays for touchdowns, which ended up being the difference in the game. Heโ€™s currently sixth among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.188). They donโ€™t have a ton of margin for error with how they play, but their defense steals extra possessions (10 takeaways) and keeps opponents out of the end-zone (27.3% red-zone TD rate).



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17. Houston Texans (2-2)

Letโ€™s just start like this โ€“ C.J. Stroud has played like a top-ten NFL quarterback so far. He hasnโ€™t looked like a rookie at all when it comes to problem-solving and how the speed of the game has affected him. He already set the record for most pass attempts to start a career without an interception in week three, but is now up to 151 total. Heโ€™s currently 14th in EPA per play among quarterbacks (0.102), heโ€™s tied for fourth with 17 passes of 20+ yards and because of him largely, theyโ€™re fourth in third-down conversion rate (48.4%). All that becomes even more impressive, when you consider 80% of their starting O-line has been out basically all season and how little theyโ€™ve gotten from the run game. On that note, the two real issues on offense, theyโ€™re dead-last in rushing success rate (30.8%) and ahead of only the Saints in terms of red-zone touchdown rate (35.7%). On the flipside, their defense is tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but even without last yearโ€™s third overall pick Derek Stingley at corner, thereโ€™s a lot to like about what weโ€™ve seen so far. This yearโ€™s number three pick Will Anderson Jr. has looked great, along with the rest of those edge defenders setting a firm point of attack from those wide alignments and walking tackles backwards into the quarterback, I love the creativity on third downs to keep opponents guessing and all 11 guys rally to the ball with consistency. They simply need to clean up their tackling, as theyโ€™ve missed six more attempts (45) than any other team in the league.


18. New Orleans Saints (2-2)

I can really go two different ways here. On one hand, we can say they could easily be 3-1 right now if not for blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead at Green Bay. Yet on the opposite end, we can also say this group won by just a point at home against the Titans in the season-opener, despite three Ryan Tannehill interceptions and a 10-point in their favor, when a strip-sack plus return touchdown was whistled dead, leading to a field goal, before they won by three at the winless Panthers. Defensively, theyโ€™re right at number ten in EPA per play (-0.050), but we also have to acknowledge that Jordan Love may be the best quarterback theyโ€™ve faced through one month. On offense, Tony Jones Jr. leads the team with two touchdowns โ€“ half of their total so far. Derek Carr has taken some vertical shots to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but otherwise things feel very condensed. The fact that Alvin Kamara had 13 catches in his return but gained only 33 yards on those โ€“ half of what was the previous low for any player in league history with as many receptions โ€“ is a pretty telling data-point. And weโ€™ll have to see how the sprained AC joint affects Carr going forward, but the amount of times Olave was on the turf on Sunday as he was trying to adjust to off-target passes was insane.


19. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

As somebody who did nearly an hour-long breakdown of โ€œwhy football nerds will fall in love with the 2023 Falcons offenseโ€, itโ€™s hard to see the potential this group has every week, yet how they end up spoiling it. They have a unicorn tight-end in Kyle Pitts, who can legitimately win one-on-one on the outside and change how defenses have to orchestrate coverages, but heโ€™s reduced to running off defenders for Jonnu Smith to have space. They have Drake London, who can consistently win on quick routes or on jump-balls, but somehow that is only taken advantage of in the red-zone. And while Bijan Robinsonโ€™s usage has been really fun, then they insert Tyler Allgeier in the most unfavorable spots and actively kill drives when he touches the ball. Theyโ€™re currently eighth in rush EPA (-0.012) but 32nd in dropback EPA (-0.224), because Desmond Ridder is still late in his processing of information and guys like right tackle Kaleb McGary, who can de-cleat people as a run-blocker gets exposed on true dropbacks. The defense has certainly made strides, with A.J. Terrell having a bounce-back season to lock up guys on the backside, Jessie Bates has been a difference-maker on the back-end for them with his range and football IQ and front-seven is as sound as itโ€™s been in years. Theyโ€™re not forcing many negative plays, as theyโ€™re 30th in sacks (5) and tied for a league-low 13 tackles for loss, but theyโ€™re number one in rush EPA per play defensive right now (-0.240) and have guys who can make plays when opponents have to drop back.


20. Washington Commanders (2-2)

The Sam Howell experience has been an absolute rollercoaster. Among NFL starter, this is where heโ€™s ranked in terms of EPA per play on a weekly basis โ€“ 26th, 16th, 32nd and 7th. The only high-level defense theyโ€™ve faced are the Bills, who treated the quarterback like a human piรฑata. Before Daniel Jones allowed the Seahawks to sack him 11 times, Sam Howell was seven clear of any other quarterback in the league in that regard (24) โ€“ and heโ€™s still โ€œupโ€ by one. I certainly like what they have across their skill-position group, what Iโ€™ve seen from Eric Bienemy in terms of stressing defenses with the way they stretch the field and the floor Brian Robinson has been provided them on the ground, as somebody who consistently gains yards through contact and falls forward, while Howell has been clutch when needed. Defensively, their front is capable of putting opponents the chains, as theyโ€™re just one off the top mark in tackles for loss (26) and tied for seventh in sacks (13). Unfortunately, their secondary has surrendered too many big plays and theyโ€™ve been penalized a league-high 35 times on that side of the ball. Watching your first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes get abused for three plus hours by A.J. Brown certainly wasnโ€™t great to see. Overall, because of that, theyโ€™ve allowed opposing offenses to score on a higher rate of drives than any team but the Broncos (52.4%).



The rest of the analysis can be found here!



21. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)


22. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)


23. New York Jets (1-3)


24. Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)


25. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)


26. New England Patriots (1-3)


27. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)


28. Denver Broncos (1-3)


29. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)


30. New York Giants (1-3)


31. Carolina Panthers (0-4)


32. Chicago Bears (0-4)



If you enjoyed this NFL breakdown, please consider visiting the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!


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