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Posts published in December 2009

New year, new decade

December 31, 2009
pike

At Pike Street Market, Wednesday afternoon/Stapilus

A decade ago exactly, we watched the new year in at a ceremony of sorts outside the Idaho Statehouse, presided over by area elected officials (Governor Dirk Kempthorne and Mayor Brent Coles were there, if memory serves). It was a worthy enough midnight ceremony, in the snowy slush, at a time of peace and economic growth, but an undercurrent of uneasiness persisted. This was the night of Y2K, when people all over the world were wondering if their computer operations - and many of their operations overall - would survive to the next day.

They did, of course. And life went on.

Tonight, we close out a decade that in hindsight turned out to be worthy of real trepidation. Happily, there doesn't seem to be tremendous concern about entering this new one - more a sense of relief at getting out of the last.

We spent most of the day wandering around Pike Street Market in Seattle, and there life went on as usual - the sellers promoting their products, the fish mongers enthusiastically throwing their fish from place to place. Life went on.

On the ferry in early evening west to Bainbridge Island, the ride had plenty of people, but wasn't packed. The security was theoretically set on high, and maybe steps invisible to the passengers were taken, but no one seemed too stressed.

It feels like a different kind of new decade opening from that opening the year 2000. Maybe it portends a better decade. At least we can hope.

See you on the other side.

Repotting

December 30, 2009
mis

Marijuana is Safer book

A possible trend in the decade to come: Moves toward legalizing and regulating pot. That's not a flat prediction. But if the legalization ballot measures on the California ballot next year pass - and there's some reason to think they will - that could constitute a tipping point.

Not least because it would suggest to politicians, those who write and pass and enforce the laws, that an approach different from the currently dominant lock-em-up approach might actually be more popular than many of them now think.

There's already some move in that direction. A Washington legislative proposal by Representative Mary Lou Dickerson, D-Seatte, in Washington would legalize marijuana and allow it to be sold in state liquor stores, to customers 21 and over, and subject to taxes.

Her immediate stated goals were fairly modest: She “wanted to start a strong conversation about the pros and cons of legalizing marijuana.” And for this session, that may be as much as it does. But if California passes the ballot issues? The session in 2011 could look a little different.

All brings to mind a recently-read book, Marijuana is Safer: So Why Are We Driving People to Drink?, by Steve Fox, Paul Armentano and Mason Tvert, with the Northwest connection of a foreword by former Seattle Police Chief Norm Stamper. The book's point is not simply pro-pot; it argues that alcohol is substantially the more dangerous of the two, and that migrating some of the alcohol crowd over to pot would result in improved public safety. Their argument is compelling.

As are some of the anecdotal points. Stamper tells about the meetings he's had with cops asking them how recently they got into a fight with someone drunk on alcohol - typically within hours or days at most - as opposed to stoned on pot, which is not at all. And this: The percentage of people in the Netherlands, where marijuana is legal, who have tried pot is about half of what it is in the United States. And much else.

From a politics point of view, a couple of chapters near the end of the book are especially noteworthy. The approach they take, comparing the problems associated with alcohol and pot and suggesting diminishment of them overall if pot were legalized, worked in Colorado and may be replicated in California. (The strategic model is worth study by anyone in politics.)

A recommended read, as we approach possible policy changes in this new decade.

What happened in Boise

December 30, 2009

You really can't blame Idaho Governor C.L. "Butch" Otter for touting positive local economic news wherever he can find it - to the point of expressing a thrill at the earnings level at Micron Technology. (Can recall governors often expressing pleasure at business expansions; can't recall a governor ever doing so at the mention of a quarterly statement.) Governors are supposed to tout their states.

But the problems Idaho faces are real and serious. Consider this snippet from a New Republic/NPR report:

"it's now clear that Boise shared the fatal flaw that led Las Vegas and Phoenix into disaster. To be blunt, all three of the westernmost big metros in the Mountain West got way too entangled in hyperactive real estate activity. Construction and real estate industry concentration figures tell the story. In Las Vegas and Phoenix, famously, the share of employment in the main construction industries and real estate reached 13.4 and 12.8 percent of all non-farm jobs in 2006 — astonishing numbers that gave those metros a reputation. But as it happens, Boise was right there with them, despite its other strengths, and by 2006 had located its own 12.8 percent share of employment in building housing and offices and selling property. By comparison, the average for large metros around the country on this remained just 8.0 percent, and it was 10 percent for the other Intermountain West metros."

Drive around the growth areas of Ada and Canyon counties, look at all the empty new buildings, and the numbers come into concrete focus.

WA: A decade gone by

December 29, 2009

One in a series of posts about changes, or lack thereof, over the last decade around Northwest politics.

Washington looked a good deal different a decade ago - it looked like a closely-split state, a place whether either party could about as easily catch a break. It 2000, for example, it had a true cliffhanger of a U.S. Senate race. In the upcoming Senate race for 2010, Republicans have had a tough time getting a top-drawer candidate at all.

Here is where Washington was a decade ago in partisan office-holding:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Murray Gorton
U.S. House 5 4
Governor Locke 0
Statewide ofcs 7 1
St Senate 27 22
St House 49 49

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And here is where Washington is today:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Murray, Cantwell 0
U.S. House 6 3
Governor Gregoire 0
Statewide ofcs 6 2
St Senate 31 18
St House 61 37

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It shows up most strongly in the legislative numbers, where the parties went from something very close to parity a decade ago (exact parity in the House) to serious Democratic dominance.

The parallel to Oregon is overall fairly close. As in Oregon, not a lot changed in the central urban areas (Democratic) or the rural regions (Republican). The shift was in the suburbs, and it was profound. Eastern King County was still clearly Republican a decade ago; now by most measures it is clearly Democratic (the persistence of Republican Representative Dave Reichert notwithstanding). The patterns are similar, and the moves and development notably in parallel. (That applies to a considerable extent in the Spokane area, on a smaller scale, as well as Seattle.)

What will the next decade bring?

There's no particular reason to think the political shifts are over, though some reason to think the Democrats, with their big legislative majorities, have come somewhere close to maxing out. A good part of what makes the difference could have to do with what face the Republican Party puts on itself in the next few years.

Something to watch: The congressional race in the 3rd district, for the seat held for more than a decade by Democrat Brian Baird. It has been held decisively by Baird, but the overall voting patterns are a close split. Either party could realistically win the seat; and what's more neither party's nomination is locked. What chances do Republicans have for a comeback? (After all, with the right approach, Attorney General Rob McKenna is a fair bet for governor in 2012.) Watch this 3rd district race; it could provide a number of clues for what will come next.

Air screening, again

December 29, 2009

The attempt at taking down Northwest Flight 253 as it approached landing at Detroit - an attempt in progress before it was stopped - gives cause for some reflection on airline security. We've addressed this before, but some of the same wrong lessons emerge once again. So, once again.

Today's editorial in the Oregonian, "Screen the passenger, confirm the administrator," had some fair enough points (such as confirming the Transportation Security Administration nominee, held up presently in the Senate). And its criticism that intelligence (in this particular case at least) has failed to properly flow through the system is of course right.

The touching faith in screening technology is another matter: "The bomb ingredients that Abdulmutallab sought to detonate were hidden under his clothing, sewn into his underwear. If he had been sent through one of the advanced, see-to-the-skin screening machines, a screener would have seen them. As Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., has urged, those machines should be in place at any airport where passengers board planes bound for an American airport. Schiphole Airport in Amsterdam has some of the machines, but Abdulmutallab evidently wasn't required to pass through any of them. Some resist the use of the machines on the grounds that they are invasive, in that they can make passengers appear to be unclothed. But, says DeFazio, a member of both the Homeland Security Committee and the Aviation subcommittee, this effect can be diluted with software that dulls the appearance of the human body, while retaining the ability to detect contraband." (more…)

Licensing in the red

December 28, 2009

Of interest: A spreadsheet the Idaho site Fort Boise has put together showing that a number of the state occupational and business licensing agencies (which have been bunched together under the Bureau of Occupational Licenses) appear to be running a deficit.

This could be somewhat illusory, at least in some cases, because of when fees are requested and when paid (a point Fort Boise notes). Still . . . another area in tough financial times, and one you might not have thought of.

ID: A decade gone by

December 28, 2009

One in a series of posts about changes, or lack thereof, over the last decade around Northwest politics.

You can say of Washington and Oregon that there were major changes in politics over the oughts. In Idaho, not so much - or at least, they're harder to spot.

Let's start with the score sheet from 10 years ago, as the dreaded new millennium hit:

Office Republicans Democrats
U.S. Senate Craig, Crapo 0
U.S. House Chenoweth, Simpson 0
Governor Kempthorne 0
Lt. Gov. Otter 0
Statewide ofcs 5 2
St Senate 31 4
St House 58 12
Co Commissioners 99 33

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Now here's where we are today, 10 years later:

Office Republicans Democrats
U.S. Senate Crapo, Risch 0
U.S. House Simpson Minnick
Governor Otter 0
Lt. Gov. Little 0
Statewide ofcs 7 0
St Senate 28 7
St House 52 18
Co Commissioners 104 27

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Very close to a wash. Democrats picked up one of the congressional seats, no small thing, and gained a little ground in the legislature (three seats in the Senate and six in the House). But Republicans gained two statewide offices the Democrats had a decade ago, and added to their under-recognized courthouse strength. And those start-of and end-of decade numbers were not aberrations; they closely reflected the state of Idaho politics for each cycle through the decade. (more…)

OR: A decade gone by

December 27, 2009

One in a series of posts about political changes, or lack thereof, over the last decade around Northwest politics.

In some ways, Oregon Republicans probably would love to have a do-over on this last decade. But what exactly would they do over?

Here is where Oregon was a decade ago in partisan office-holding:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Wyden Smith
U.S. House 4 1
Governor Kitzhaber 0
Statewide ofcs 4 0
St Senate 13 17
St House 25 35
Co Commissioners 28 56

.

And, after a decade in which all of the statewide seats have turned over and U.S. House seats have been up every two years, here is where it is now:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Wyden, Merkley 0
U.S. House 4 1
Governor Kulongoski 0
Statewide ofcs 4 0
St Senate 18 12
St House 36 24
Co Commissioners 23 49

Only partisan offices are included among the statewides and county commissions here; and there was some shifting among counties in choosing to have partisan or nonpartisan offices, so those comparisons are a bit of apples and oranges. (more…)

Dave’s Redistricting App

December 27, 2009

A new decade brings with it that wonderful political tradition known as redistricting. And just in time for the new year, a fine online (and free!) toy for all the political wonks . . .

Dave's Redistricting App is a 50-state map/database device (reliant on Silverlight), and maybe the best free device for political mapmakers around. The best thing about it is that it drills down to the precinct level, which is unusual for free interactive political maps.

This will be fun for Washingtonians and Oregonians who contemplate the possibility of a new congressional district. But it also allows for redistricting on the state legislative level, so Idahoans can join in the fun.