Democrats are facing a brutal Senate map in 2024. With a razor-thin majority, Democrats are defending 20 seats next year, while only 10 Repubs are facing voters. Three independents who mostly caucus with Dems are also up: King, Sanders and Sinema.

Red state Dems Jon Tester and Joe Manchin are up, and most pundits rate their races as a tossup, with Tester having a better shot at keeping his seat than Manchin. Can Sherrod Brown of Ohio continue to be a political unicorn? Maybe — his race is a tossup too.

It seems likely that Bernie “Even Older Than Joe Biden” Sanders will run again, and King has already declared. Most prognosticators believe both seats are keepers for Team Donk.

Of course there’s much speculation about Sinema, who declared herself an independent after behaving so obnoxiously that she tanked her approval rating with most Arizona Democrats. She hasn’t declared, but NBC News got their mitts on a donor prospectus called “Kyrsten’s Path to Victory,” which suggests she at least understands how despised she is by the overwhelming majority of voters in her former party:

(T)he document says Sinema can win by attracting 10% to 20% of Democrats, 60% to 70% of independents and 25% to 35% of Republicans.

Alongside a headshot of her and a section titled “Kyrsten Will Win Arizona,” the document says: “If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history.” A source shared the document, which has circulated among Arizona political operatives in recent days.

I don’t know AZ politics, but I do know Repubs, so I’m skeptical Sinema can peel away that many of them, even if the barking mad AZ GOP nominates a kook like Kari Lake or the twitchy serial killer-vibe guy. Some analysis I’ve seen suggests Ruben Gallego would actually benefit from a Sinema candidacy, but who knows.

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The last thing Dems needed going into this year is a wild card in a state that’s typically not up for grabs, but grabby Gold Bar Bob Menendez dealt one from the bottom of the deck. The sumbitch is holding a press conference now, where he’s taking a defiant tone, announcing that he’s running for reelection* and denouncing his detractors. Fuck that guy.

So far, a ton of New Jersey party officials and electeds, including the governor and chairs of several county parties, have urged Menendez to step down, as has U.S. Senate colleague John Fetterman, six members of New Jersey’s U.S. House delegation and other prominent Dems in the House, including Adam Schiff. Even AOC called bullshit when Menendez cravenly played the “they’re out to get me because I’m Latino” card and said he should resign.

As far as I know, only one elected Dem has enthusiastically endorsed a 2024 Gold Bar Bob run, and that is Rep. Rob Menendez, Gold Bar’s son. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Dick Durbin issued mealy-mouthed statements that declined to call for Menendez’s resignation. There are doubtless political calculations behind their dissembling, but it’s hard to hear after reading the indictment.

The best case scenario would be for Menendez to resign and allow the Democratic governor to appoint someone, but now we know for sure that the greedy prick isn’t going anywhere (except to jail, hopefully, after a fair trial). I don’t know if this places the seat in jeopardy for Democrats or not — seems like we’ve got some strong local talent there. Would love to hear some local perspectives.

Open thread!

*ETA: The analysts are saying Menendez was ambiguous in his press conference today on the question of whether he’s running in 2024. I sure thought he said he was — here’s the quote as best I can recall it from memory: “When the dust settles, I still intend to be the senior Senator from New Jersey.”

Also, he only addressed one aspect of the evidence DOJ cited in the indictment — he explained that it’s a long-term habit of his to squirrel large amounts of cash away at home because of his family’s experience of having their money confiscated by Cuban commies. (He was born in the U.S. nearly seven decades ago, but okay…)

Menendez, Sinema & the Senate MapPost + Comments (137)