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A two-day UN conference in Doha concluded on 2 May with no sign that the global community was inching closer to formal recognition of the Taliban. Hosted by UN Secretary General António Guterres, the closed-door meetings brought together envoys from various nations in a bid to unify the international community’s stances on human rights, governance, counterterrorism and anti-drug efforts in Afghanistan. Afghan women and exiled opposition figures feared that these talks would kick off a process of ‘constructive engagement’ and mark the start of a roadmap toward formal recognition of the Taliban’s rule. Yet, if the conference did not pave the way for recognition, Guterres himself did not rule out the eventuality.
‘To achieve our objectives, we cannot disengage,’ Guterres said after the meeting, ‘and many called for engagement to be more effective and based on lessons we have learned from the past.’ Nor did the UN chief refute the possibility of directly meeting with the Taliban, ‘when it is the right moment to do so’.
Over the past 21 months, the Taliban has banned education for girls and imposed work restrictions on women, measures which the UN has described as creating ‘gender apartheid’. The de facto authorities have also annulled divorces, condemning countless women to return to abusive ex-husbands. Taliban elders have proven as resilient to condemnations and expressions of ‘deep concern’ from abroad as they have been to Western economic sanctions. By striking lucrative trade deals with neighbouring countries, the Taliban have mitigated the most punitive effects of the sanctions. The de facto authorities also collect considerable domestic revenue from customs duties.
Facing off against the Taliban amid a humanitarian crisis, Guterres also grapples with the challenge of reaching international consensus on Afghanistan when priorities so widely diverge among member states. Regional countries – China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia and various Central Asian republics – already engage with the Taliban for their own national security and trade concerns. Some have forged working relationships with or without conditions and formalities – accepting and even accrediting Taliban-appointed diplomats – and there has been some pay off for them. China, for instance, is working to extend its Belt and Road Initiative to Afghanistan, which could see the construction of railways and bridges even while Kabul continues to harbour Xinjiang separatists.
Significantly, China’s foreign ministry spokesman announced on 10 May that the Taliban had made a written pledge to block the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and other militant groups from conducting activities from Afghanistan. Speaking at a press conference following the fifth China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue in Islamabad, the Chinese spokesman also used the opportunity to express China’s position that as a ‘traditionally friendly neighbour’, Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community, for the sake of the wellbeing of the Afghan people and the peaceful reconstruction of the country.
Yet former NATO ambassador to Afghanistan Stefano Pontecorvo rules out near-term recognition, arguing that a turning point can only come if the Taliban changes its behaviour. In his view, the UN can play an integral role in pushing for this change. ‘The UN should engage the Islamic countries more stringently to push for a change in the Taliban policy towards women. The UN and the international community must continue to maintain engagement with the country and the government at the minimum level whilst making sure humanitarian assistance continues to flow,’ said Pontecorvo. ‘The Taliban must understand there will be no flexibility on the issue.’
In spite of this, and of Guterres’ cautious rhetoric, the appointment of senior Turkish diplomat Feridun Sinirlioğlu as UN special coordinator on Afghanistan suggests the international body may be considering recognition for the Taliban in the near term. In the recent past, Sinirlioğlu has advocated for conditional normalisation and in a 2021 speech at the UN Security Council soon after Kabul fell, Sinirlioğlu said: ‘We believe that gradual engagement with the Taliban is the right approach. We need to communicate with them to see if they will keep their promises.’
Yet Pontecorvo notes that following the 20-year US-led war in Afghanistan (2001-2021), ‘I think the Taliban know that the West will not engage except for humanitarian aid. I’m not even sure they are all that interested in us. The West knows it has a limited leverage and the Taliban know our security concerns. There is an uneasy balance there,’ he conceded.
Still, whether the basis for engagement — and eventual recognition — is an agreement that mandates a commitment to women’s rights, cooperation with the international community on counter-terrorism, or to establish a broad-based, inclusive government, the challenges will come down to assessment and enforcement. Any agreement would need to be conditions-based and a mechanism for enforcement must be put into place, if negotiators are to learn the lessons from the flawed 2020 Doha Agreement. Widely panned as a withdrawal deal for the Americans rather than a peace deal for Afghans, the Doha Agreement included Washington’s commitment (on behalf of the Afghan government) to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for only 1,000 Afghan troops. Moreover, the talks categorically excluded the Afghan government at the behest of the Taliban, did not stipulate a ceasefire and failed to clearly define the Taliban’s counterterrorism obligations.
Nearly two years since the Taliban takeover, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate. Some 40 million Afghans are grappling with increasingly repressive policies and insurmountable economic hardship. Two thirds of the country – some 28 million people – require humanitarian aid. A devastating earthquake which struck southeastern Afghanistan in June 2022 compounded the humanitarian crisis, damaging 70% of homes in the area and resulting in thousands dead and injured. It exposed a healthcare sector already affected in the political transition, with hospitals short of supplies and workers. The UN secretary general, unfortunately, is left with a dilemma: either acknowledge Taliban control, try to negotiate the best deals possible and maintain some measure to improve and influence the lives of millions, or allow the country and its people to fall further into the abyss. He no longer has good options but can only choose among the least bad options.
Guterres has said that another meeting will be convened in the future, but it is unlikely that significant progress will be made. The bitter reality in Afghanistan demands that the international community acknowledge the challenge, show a measure of humility and move, even gradually, towards finding partial solutions to the humanitarian crisis.