This is not really a dig at Stevenson but more of concern for the situation of being on the patriots and their offensive mindset. Maybe someone can say something to convince me that he is an elite level player and the Pats will have no choice but to feed him the ball.
Stevenson vastly outperformed his ADP last year finishing as RB11, mostly on the back of a very unexpected 69 catch season as Damien Harris went down week 5 and never really took back the lead role.
Stevenson is now being drafted as the RB10 in half PPR, which to me says the market is sure his stats in the rushing and passing game from last year is fully secure. I’m having trouble understanding why that is and find it just as likely that last year will be his best season in the NFL.
First of all the 88 targets seems unlikely to repeat. Going back to 2020 only 2 to 3 backs per year see more than 80 targets in a season. Just two years ago Mac Jones targeted the RBs 47 times total. The pats didn’t do much to steal targets away by sending Jakobi off, but they did pick up juju and Gesicki. Still, 50-60 targets is much more realistic and still a lot.
Anyone who’s played fantasy football for more than a few years knows how frustrating the patriots RB room is to predict. Just last year Damien Harris and rhamondre were the 26th and 35th RBs taken in adp because of the uncertainty of how they would be used. Why is that so different this year? People will say that the pats didn’t draft or trade for a running back but forget that they drafted Pierre Strong in the 4th round 2022. I find it likely he gets a lot more work than people are predicting, just like how 4th round Stevenson started taking work in 2021 from Damien Harris, and 3rd round Damien Harris started taking work from Sony Michel in 2020..
Lastly, I think we can all agree that the Pats offense was putrid last year and likely to be bad again this year. They were bottom 10 in both total yards and pace of play last year and unless you see Mac Jones making a big leap I don’t see why that would change. People will say Stevenson is due for TD regression but not if the team can’t make it to the end zone.
All of these reasons are why it’s hard for me to buy into him repeating as an RB1. It just feels like he is being drafted at his ceiling.
The group has depth at WR and RB. Geno Smith showed efficiency last season and finished as a QB1.
The team finished with the 13th most offensive yards per game and 9th most points scored per game in 2022.
What are your thoughts on Seattle cracking the Top 5 in either category in 2023?
In best ball formats, one strategy I’ve been using is fading TE’s till the end of the draft and taking 3-4. The logic behind this is a lot of the guys around the ADP are a long shot to see the ball, even the field much. The TE’s down here are still starters most of the time.
One of the guys I like down there is Hayden Hurst. He’s not going to be a game breaker, but for his ADP you’re getting the #1 TE for Carolina, who’s best receiving options are DJ Chark, the ghost of Adam Thielen, and a rookie.
Rookie QB’s also tend to check down a lot, so potentially looking at games with 7-8 points just in dump off receptions (assuming 1 PPR. For TEP this is even better). Other TE’s I like to target with this strategy are Irv Smith, Jake Ferguson, Jelani Woods and one of Dulcich/Chig if you take one a little earlier.
*this strategy works best in best ball formats with deep rosters
I love FF, but just don't have as much time as I used to. I play in 3 leagues. The last few seasons I found myself heavily relying on paid tools like fantasypros more and more. I just don't have time to watch all the games, pre-season, reading all the articles.
For someone who has less than a few hours a week, or less than an hour a day, what's the best strategy to stay current? Is there go to list of critical resources? A reliable weekly /daily summary? Pre-draft? Mid season? What can't you live without?
Or is it what it is, to stay competitive you just gotta grind?
Update: all the leagues are ppr redraft, 10-12 teams
Thx
Seeing the same ole CMC, Ekeler, and JT as the clear cut best RB options…with a hint of Bijan.
But Jacobs’ workload is likely to be even heavier this season as Jimmy G is a much more pedestrian QB than Carr as far as explosive plays, and he loves to throw check downs.
Jacobs is also closer to his athletic prime than every other proven RB except maybe JT (Jacobs is the superior pass catcher, though). I think this could be the recipe for a RB1 finish for Jacobs.
Jacobs in the ‘22-‘23 Season
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19.3 PPG - Finished as RB3 in PPG (2.6 PPG behind RB1 CMC)
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1 of 4 RB’s to average 18.9+ PPG (No other RB’s averaged more than 17.8 PPG)
What do you guys think Jacobs’ ceiling is this season?
No wrong answer’s its your personal opinion. Don’t comment someone who had a breakout season last year tho . Ex: Jalen hurts
Lets say you have $20,000 to invest into a player you think is going to breakout this year. (Like a stock) Who are you investing in?
With rumors of Josh Jacobs holding out I’m wondering why Zamir White is largely going undrafted even in best ball leagues with 18 rounds in them. Is he not the clear backup? I know he is a very talented back and if Jacobs was to hold out or be traded for whatever reason would he not present some pretty massive upside? Am I missing something here?
Miles Sanders is being underrated going into this season. His ADP is currently 57.2 on ESPN PPR mocks.
I think he has a very realistic path to be a RB1 this season, especially in non-ppr leagues. This Carolina teams likes to the run the ball, and a lot of carrie’s have been vacated. D’Onta Foreman, post McCaffrey trade, averaged 17.8 carries/game. Over the full season, that would have made Foreman 5th in carries/game. Right behind, Henry, Jacobs, Barkley, and tied with Chubb. This rate spread out over the course of the whole season would have resulted in over 300 carries. For some context, every running back who has had over 300 carries in a season since 2015 has been a top 10 rb in PPR leagues (usually top 5).
He’s coming off a RB15 finish in PPR leagues and a RB10 finish in standard leagues. He had 259 carries last season. I think he has a really good chance, of increasing on this number. Now he might not reach 300, but it’s hard for me to picture a situation where he doesn’t at least match last seasons total. Along with more opportunity in general, he should see more red zone opportunities as well. Jalen Hurts poached many potential tds from Sanders last year. Jalen Hurts had the second most attempts inside the 5 last season, adding 9 touchdowns. Now I wouldn’t expect the Panthers to have the volume of attempts in this area as the Eagles, but they will get their fair share and these shots will go to Sanders.
Additionally, the Panthers have one of the easiest schedules next season. Obviously, the teams performance is up in the air and heavily dependent of Bryce Young’s performance. But, an easy schedule gives way to positive gamescripts for running backs. They also added a running minded offensive coordinator in Thomas Brown for this season.
Overall, Miles Sanders at his current ADP offers a unique mix of having a high floor and a high ceiling for this season. For a 5th-6th round pick, this is rare. Obviously, there are some questions with the transition to the Panthers. But I think the way these questions get answered is what will affect his ceiling, not his floor. The Panthers are clearly committed to him as lead back and liked what they saw. If you can lock in a flex who has a legitimate possibility of having over 275 touches this season, you will be set up. I feel like the consensus is expecting a decline in his numbers this season, but I think this is wrong. I think their attributing a bad panthers team with having a bad run game when this is not necessarily true. And even if Miles Sanders has the same season as last year or even a small decline he is still worth his current ADP. I’m drafting him wherever I can get him, I love the low risk and the potential for a big season.
Would like to hear your thoughts
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Built a chart based on early projections from FantasyPros. Main take-away in looking at this is the importance of tiers. For example, although Dak is QB9 and Geno is QB13, the difference between them is negligible. You'd be better off waiting a round or two and snagging Geno.
BTW The percentage next to the player name is the % difference in total fantasy points projected for the season vs. the next ranked player.
Let me know if you notice anything else interesting!
https://preview.redd.it/chart-top-30-qbs-based-on-projected-fantasy-points-for-2023-v0-3j04qxno46bb1.png?width=2336&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7a286ec7ff2eb8f9397937250be6da9792110495Post your Trade questions here!
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Note: More NFL related than FF, but I thought I'd share here as well
When asked what separates the Washington Commanders from the rest of the NFC East, Ron Rivera said “Quarterback”. Although you may not want to publicly criticize the man that you’re stuck with for the rest of the season, the veteran head coach makes a good point. “The truth is that this is a quarterback-driven league,” Rivera explained. “And if you look at the teams that have been able to sustain success, they’ve been able to build it around a specific quarterback.” As much as we like to applaud a team’s tenacious and hard-hitting running backs or the swifty and methodically moving receivers, the real praise goes to the man throwing the ball.
We know this to be true as well. Last season’s super bowl was a long and hard-fought matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. Both teams relentlessly kept up their respective offensive masterclass, just waiting for one to give the other a bit of breathing room. When we think about this game, we are reminded of the might of Patrick Mahomes, battling through injury to stay in the game and throwing for 3 touchdowns in the biggest game of the season. We may also think of Jalen Hurts and his impressive performance of 300 passing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. What we don’t think of is 7th round rookie, Isiah Pacheco scoring in the biggest game of his life, or Sky Moore’s electric Touchdown to make it an 8-point lead for the Chiefs. We also don’t think of the dominant performance by Eagle’s WR room. DeVonta Smith went for 100 yards on 7 receptions and AJ Brown was almost identical to this stat line while contributing a Touchdown. To be a good NFL team, you need more than a solid quarterback, but the quarterback and the passing game has reigned victorious and essential to winning in the modern NFL.
This can be shown statistically through comparing the expected points added (EPA) per rush and per pass to total points scored in the season. Below are the graphs depicting these trends.
https://preview.redd.it/a-quarterback-driven-league-v0-3lq3ly3347bb1.jpg?width=586&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b5e04aa157d9961407eed93a654844d76046f402 https://preview.redd.it/a-quarterback-driven-league-v0-sscvpgm347bb1.jpg?width=586&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e64dfafd18d02e10f5ad6653a4c4b211e39ae600As we can see from the graphs, there is a strong positive correlation between higher EPA per pass and total points. The plots on the graph follow the trendline almost perfectly. Compared to the EPA Per Rush graph, where teams are quite scattered, which suggests that there is not a very good correlation between these two metrics.
Additionally, we can examine the correlation between points per game and rushing yards per game vs passing yards per game. When we use the entire league sample, we yield a correlation coefficient of .202 between points per game and rushing yards per game. This suggests a weak/positive correlation, where there is a positive trend between increased rushing yards and increased scoring, but it is minimal in strength. For passing yards per game, our correlation coefficient is .610, signifying a positive/moderately strong correlation. When we change our sample to just the top 10 scoring teams last season, we see something really interesting. For the passing correlation, our coefficient slightly increases to .644, but our rushing correlation drops to -.114. A negative correlation indicates that there is an inverse relationship between rushing yards and total points. Although it is a very weak correlation, it is extremely noteworthy. This suggests that the top scoring NFL teams sacrifice rushing to prioritize putting the ball in the quarterback’s hands more frequently, reaffirming Rivera’s statement that this is indeed a “quarterback-driven league.”
Hi! I’m a fantasy baseball player new to the FF world. I was wondering if expected stats (like xWOBA and xSLG) exist in the football world? I love how the baseball savant website uses the advanced statistics along with percentiles and I was also wondering if there was an equivalent to that site for football? If there’s nothing similar to baseball, which stats are the bread and butter for football and what should I use to analyze players and find value? Thanks for all your help in advance :)
What are some optimal strategies that you guys are doing for best ball tournaments (Underdog). I know it shouldn’t be approached the same way as casual redraft leagues so which players are higher/lower on your board?
Like youtube channels or websites? Also, what websites can tell me all of the offseason moves every team has made like coaching and player changes?