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•Posted by2 days ago
https://www.space.com/starlink-satellite-conjunction-increase-threatens-space-sustainability
Curious for everyone's thoughts on this article. I think they gloss over or fail to mention a few items. Starlink conducts collision-avoidance maneuvers if there is a 1 in 100,000 chance of a collision, whereas the international standard is 1 in 10,000. Statistically speaking, that means approximately 2,500 of this collision-avoidance maneuvers were due to that more stringent measure (I know this isn't the actual count, just playing the odds). Additionally, as of May 2022 (the period before this study), 25% of collison-avoidance maneuvers were due to the Kosmos 1408 wreckage, a singular event.
I believe Starlink satellites can make 350 collison-avoidance maneuvers in their lifespans. Would be interesting if someone smarter than I could model how soon Starlink satellites would run out of juice. Does Starlink V2 have more propulsion? Also, with SpaceX's high launch rate, I think they could easily meet attrition for sometime.
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