Jesus Christ I better be notorious from this point onward. I am so.... so sorry.

I believe that Antone Smith is currently being underprojected and ranked too low for his situation tonight against the Atlanta Falcons. As a long time Falcons fan, I understand that it's foolish to look strictly at his streak of 2014 long TD runs as proof for potential success. When he finally started receiving more carries that year, his production massively dipped and then before we knew it, he was injured against the Panthers. Just like that, he was off the team and I honestly had no idea that he was still around, similar to Jacquizz Rodgers after he was cut from the Bears.

With that being said, I think there is massive opportunity for him to perform tonight in what will almost certainly be a shootout in Tampa, particularly in PPR. My Falcons are the 27th ranked defense against runningbacks, and have been particularly susceptible to RBs that are threats through the air. Through 8 games, in standard ppr leagues, the Falcons let up an average of 14.5 points to RBs, exclusively through the air. A report from ESPN's Bucs writers said that Antone projects to be the leader of the committee between him, Peyton Barber, and recently jobless Mike James, and that Antone will probably be the 3rd down back. If he can corral even close that average through the air, then he would an awesome plug and play, and that's not including the gamebreaking potential he has shown that he has on the ground. And again, it projects to be a shootout, which will only generate more opportunities for passing situations. In the week 1 matchup of this game, Doug Martin and Charles' Sims (remember them?) combined for 8 catches for 66 yards and a TD in the 31-24 win. Since being incorporated back into the game, as Jacquizz's backup, Antone Smith has caught 3 of 5 targets for 50 yards fo far. Obviously a small sample size, but Peyton Barber has 0 catches on 0 targets in his NFL career. I think Antone owns that potential workload.

I know that generally speaking he is probably not the size/frame to handle a season's workload, and his track record shows that he can't, but Koetter has also shown that he will lean on someone that he trusts. JizzRod was a part of Koetter's system for 3 years in Atlanta, 12-14. Antone Smith was also there for Koetter's entire tenure. Despite Peyton Barber showing promise when giving a decently large workload, it was in a blowout against an abysmal 49er's team. In a game that wasn't already out of hand, Koetter trusted Smith with 22 snaps after JizzRod's injury, compared to Barber's 3. I think Koetter will continue to ride the guy that has had several years absorbing his system, over a guy promoted off the practice squad earlier this year. One other important thing to consider is that while you'l always consider the Falcons to be an offensively centered team, Desmond Trufant is solid. Hopefully, he's going to be covering Evan's all game. I think that has to limit his production at least a little, and with all of the Bucs' RB injuries, you have to assume that Dan Quinn and Co.'s game plan is to cover the pass, particularly to Evans. Russell Shepard is looking like he's out, and Adam Humphries has the 2nd most targets on the team, but has struggled massively in recent weeks. If the Falcons do their best to scheme out Evans, Jameis is going to have to throw somewhere.

While it will probably play a minimal role, you also gotta love the "revenge" narrative of the productive player never being given a chance by his old team to come out and school them in primetime as well. I think there is certainly pause for thought that Dirk Koetter of all people specifically brought this guy back to his team to give him a shot. The man who would have seen his potential first hand for years is the one who decided to give him a shot when no one else would.

Honestly, based on how this year has gone for me, now that I have explained my reasoning, I'd bet Antone comes out with 3 carries for 4 and a dropped pass. With that being said, I am rolling him out tonight and benching Christine Michael.

TL;DR The man is in a system he knows, has consistently shown flashes of brilliance when given opportunities, and projects to be the pass catching back against a team that can't stop pass catching backs. Thanks for reading :)

Edit: Just so we are clear, I am not condoning anything drastic. I am putting him in just based on my evidence above and a hunch. I think Christine Michael is starting to pull a Latavius Murray from earlier this year where he is very TD dependent for his value, especially now that the Seahawks are committed to giving CJ Prosise some touches. Obviously start your studs. I'm just saying I personally think there is enough potential here for it to be worth the risk.