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Armchair GM's.

r/NBAMockTourney

Hot New Top Rising

Hot New Top

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2

Posted by

Bulls

3 years ago

work in prog

the term "generational" prospect may be overused, so how about we create a new one? introducing: the "Presidential" Prospect Series

When it comes to the NFL Draft, we hear the term "generational" prospect thrown around quite a bit. In fact, it becomes so common that it strains the credibility of the concept itself. Even if you're basing it on a particularly frisky teenager, we should be talking about one every 12-15 years.

At the same time, we can acknowledge that there are certain prospects who are better than the average bear, and better than the best prospect in the average year. How do we describe those caliber of prospects?

I humbly submit the concept of a presidential prospect. The goal should be to describe a player who transcends his draft class, and would stand out as the best over a multi-year span. In an ideal world, a generational prospect should come along every 20 years or so. And in an ideal world, a presidential prospect should come around roughly every 4 years or so (hence the intention behind the terminology.)

To help illustrate this concept (and to have some fun), I went back over some prior prospects and determined whether or not they'd classify as "generational" or "presidential." In the interest of thoroughness and insanity, we did this exercise at every position, examining the best of the best in every class dating back to 1998 (my first year paying attention to the draft.)

I've been posting this series to the diehards on /NFL_Draft, but I thought other NFL fans may enjoy joining the debate themselves. And for those of us who may be more recent fans, it could be an interesting historical glance at the top prospects of yesteryear. Although remember, we're debating the value of the draft prospect AT THE TIME (not in hindsight.) Of course, because we're doing this exercise after the fact, those lines may get blurred.

"Generational" and "Presidential" prospects at every position (since 1998)

Quarterbacks

generational prospects: 2

presidential prospects: 7

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6 comments

2

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

test

On face value, the NBA All-Star game is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of the season. However, making that roster is still a real achievement and an aspiration for all players on the verge. With them in mind, I wanted to take a look at the players who are most likely to pop their cherry this year and earn a spot.

Of course, that won't be easy to do, especially if you play out West. Kevin Durant will be gone, but Kawhi Leonard is right back to replace him. Barring unforeseen injuries, there may be only a few "at large" bids at play. Klay Thompson won't be healthy for the game, while LaMarcus Aldridge may be on the bubble.

Out East, there should be more open lanes. Kawhi Leonard and D'Angelo Russell (an injury replacement) left the conference, and Victor Oladipo may not be healthy enough to secure a return ticket. Moreover, there are some bubble spots up for grabs, including last year's members Kyle Lowry, Khris Middleton, and Nikola Vucevic.

So among the newbies, who is most likely to crack the field? Here are my personal rankings below, but feel free to give your own in the comments.

MOST LIKELY FIRST-TIME ALL-STARS

(12) Mike Conley: 21.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists

Veteran Mike Conley (now 31) has never made an All-Star team, having been the victim of a brutally stacked conference and a small market. Breaking that streak won't be easy, because his new team happens to be in that same Western Conference as well. Moreover, he may only be the third banana for the Jazz, and see a slight decline in his raw stats.

One factor that may be in his favor is the "narrative." The 12-year veteran is one of the most well-liked and well-respected players in the league. The media might make a push for him to break his streak, especially if the Jazz can be in the top 3 seed range. He'll also have the support of two separate fan bases, as Memphis fans will be rooting for him from afar.

(11) Zach LaVine: 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists

Personally, I grumbled about the Chicago Bulls' decision to give Zach LaVine a $20M salary last summer because he'd never actually proven to be an efficient scorer yet. But alas, analysis like that is why I'm not a GM. LaVine quietly exploded last year, and did it with solid efficiency to boot (57.4% true shooting.) LaVine may be able to crack 25 PPG this year, which will make him hard to deny in the softer conference.

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0 comments

2

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

WORK In porgress

[OC] Who is the best player in the NBA right now? The primary field is here to help you decide which candidate to endorse

For much of the last decade, LeBron James has been the clear best player in the NBA. In fact, there wasn’t much need to debate it all.

Over the last year or two, I would argue that Kevin Durant recently slipped past the aging James. Durant has always been a historically efficient volume scorer, but he’s become a better playmaker (averaging a career high 5.9 assists this year), and a more willing and capable defender (averaging a career high 1.8 blocks the year prior.) He's also stepped up his game to unstoppable heights in the playoffs.

But then... he got hurt. And chances are, he won’t be playing next season at all. In a way, it feels like the heavyweight championship of the world has been vacated, leaving a debate for that top spot.

So what now? Do we default back to James? Do we give the nod to reigning NBA champ Kawhi Leonard? Super scorers James Harden or Seth Curry? MVP Giannis? Or a total darkhorse?

In some ways, there are so many candidates that it’s starting to feel like the crowded primary field for the Democratic nomination. So naturally, we have to find a political comp for each candidate to help you decide where to place your vote.

FRONT-RUNNER CANDIDATES

LeBRON JAMES, L.A. LAKERS

candidate comp : Joe Biden, former Vice President, Delaware

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3 comments

1

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

test

Executive Precision: the Brooklyn Nets prove the magic of the Wonderful Wizard of Oz (technically New Zealand)

With the NBA offseason mostly settled (?), we have started a series where we look back and gauge some of the best and worst offseasons of the summer.

Today is a positive outlook. In fact, it's so rosy that we can hear Judy Garland and Sean Marks signing in harmony "Somewhere over the rainbow -- bluebirds fly. Birds fly over the rainbow. Why then, oh, why can't I?""

EXECUTIVE PRECISION: BROOKLYN NETS

PART ONE: THE WIZARD OF OZ

There's no (M)GM lionized like Sam Hinkie on this sub, and he deserves a lot of that acclaim. After all, he took a mediocre team, blew it up, and rebuilt a winner from the ground up.

That said, Brooklyn Nets GM Sean Marks may have had an even more difficult challenge on his hands. Born in New Zealand (which is close to Australia's "Oz"), Marks inherited a franchise that had less basketball talent than Munchkinland. Previous GM Billy King cashed in the entire future for a chance to build a veteran winner, but that roster imploded faster than a wicked witch.

As ill-advised as the deal may have been, no one could have known just how badly it'd end up. In his last season in Boston, Kevin Garnett averaged a respectable 14.8 points with a true shooting percentage of 53.5%. The very next year in Brooklyn? He averaged 6.5 points with a true shooting percentage of 46.7%. Similarly, Paul Pierce dropped like a rock, going from 18.6 PPG in Boston to 13.5 PPG in his first year in Brooklyn. The fact that his new Celtics started to age as gracefully as fruit flies ruined what was (on paper) a good collection of vets: Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, plus KG and Pierce. And as a result, all those sacrificed R1 picks turned into pure gold for Boston.

Enter Sean Marks. He took over a roster that finished 21-61, and had a bare cupboard when it came to the draft (after King had sacrificed 4 first round picks.) Despite that impossible challenge, Marks has done a brilliant job of replenishing the soil from that scorched earth. He nailed the coaching hire (with anonymous Hawks assistant Kenny Atkinson), and utilized his remaining cap space in smart ways (using it to draw in assets.) Moreover, he demonstrated an astute eye for talent. He bought low on D'Angelo Russell, gave an opportunity to "scrubs" like Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris, and drafted sleepers like Caris LeVert (pick # 20), and Jarrett Allen (pick # 22.)

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0 comments

1

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

test

Sports gambling is usually a bad idea, and gambling on Vegas "over/unders" is worse than most. You're only going to get a modest return -- and you're tying your money up for months in the process. Given the state of the country, we may have devolved in a full out civil war by then.

So all in all, I would not recommend betting over/unders. However, if you do, then I would recommend the following ones.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Milwaukee: 56.0

The Bucks went 60-22 last year, so this sounds like a fair regression (especially when you factor in the loss of Malcolm Brogdon and his red-hot shooting season.) PASS.

Philadelphia: 53.0

Based on the results last year (51-31, +2.7 point differential), this may be optimistic, but it's a talented team that's difficult to bet against. Adding Al Horford also mitigates against the risk of a Joel Embiid injury. PASS.

Indiana: 49.0

The Pacers played legitimately good basketball last year (48-34, +3.3), so this sounds fair. Indiana also improved their wing depth with Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday, which should help in the event of Victor Oladipo missing time. PASS.

Boston: 48.5

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0 comments

1

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

brbef

With the NBA offseason mostly settled (?), we can start to look back and judge just how well these organizations fared. Given that, I wanted to launch a short series that will highlight some of the more underrated offseasons ("Executive Precision") as well as some potential head-scratchers ("Executive Indecision").

New York Knicks fans, you may have some idea which camp you landed on already, so let's get to it.

EXECUTIVE (IN)DECISION: NEW YORK KNICKS

PART ONE: RE-SETTING EXPECTATIONS

For years, the New York Knicks and their fans have looked forward to this summer with the (super)stars in their eyes. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. And honestly? It shouldn't have. As it stands right now, this Knicks roster is simply too young and raw to be an appealing supporting cast for a star like Kevin Durant.

Given that, we can't blame the Knicks braintrust (president Steve Mills, GM Scott Perry) for striking out on the superstars in free agency. However, we can blame them for what happened after those strikeouts.

After the team lost out on the top talent, they should have taken a step back, re-assessed, and decided to exercise patience and a long-term approach. Instead of building around Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, you're now building around new pick SG R.J. Barrett (and Mitchell Robinson.)

Some other franchises have found themselves in a similar boat, and wisely designed their team accordingly. In Atlanta, GM Travis Schlenk is building around Trae Young, and consequently surrounding him with 3+D players who can cover up for his defensive limitations. In New Orleans, David Griffin is building around Zion Williamson, and trying to assemble a team that features long bodies who can run and gun with him.

In that same vein, the Knicks needed to build a team whose identity fit alongside their foundational pieces.

PART TWO: TAKING SOLID STEPS FORWARD

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0 comments

1

Posted by

Bulls

4 years ago

test

Mid-to-late R1 picks are nice, but selections from 16-30 have only yielded 7.3% of All-NBA spots (11/150) over the last decade.

There's no doubt that mid-to-late R1 picks are nice assets to have in the bank, but the idea that you can use them to stock up on game-changing talents may be optimistic. In the 2010s, there have been 150 All-NBA selections (including 1st, 2nd, and 3rd teams.) Among those, only 11 spots have gone to players picked in the second half of the first round (7.33%). That number includes multi-time winners. If you'd like to count each player once (no duplicates), then that becomes 7 selections out of 57 total All-NBA players (12.28%)

Now, to be fair, that number may be somewhat cherry picked. The # 15 pick has been particularly fruitful, yielding Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetoukounmpo among others. Normally you'd lump in the 15th pick as a "non-lottery" pick, but it's technically in the first half of the first round. If you want to include the # 15 picks, then the number jumps to 12.7%. But again, that number is less than the total for the # 1 pick alone (22%). The top 3 picks have yielded nearly half the spots -- 43.3%. The top 5 picks have produced over half -- 57.3%. It's an intuitive and obvious principle, but illustrated plainly here; the best way to find a franchise talent is to secure a very high pick.

If you'd like all the pick and All-NBA history, you can scroll down below. If a player earned multiple selections, I used the "X" symbol to indicate as much. If they're a one-time selection, I write the year announced.

all-NBA selections (2010-2019)

(1) LeBron James (x10), Dwight Howard (x5), Blake Griffin (x5), Tim Duncan (x3), Anthony Davis (x3), Derrick Rose (x2), Kyrie Irving (x2), Andrew Bogut (2010), John Wall (2017), Karl-Anthony Towns (2018)

(2) Kevin Durant (x9), LaMarcus Aldridge (x5), Tyson Chandler (2012), Victor Oladipo (2018)

(3) James Harden (x6), Pau Gasol (x3), Carmelo Anthony (x3), Joel Embiid (x2), Deron Williams (2010), Al Horford (2011)

(4) Russell Westbrook (x8), Chris Paul (x5)

(5) Dwyane Wade (x4), Kevin Love (x2), DeMarcus Cousins (x2)

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Official NBA Mock Draft and Tournament for Armchair GM's

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