The only time where the 4% rule would have resulted in a negative balance would be during the following monthly time periods:

• 9/1/1927

• 11/1/1927 thru 10/1/1930

• 3/1/1931

• 3/1/1999 thru 11/1/2000

The only other times where your balance would result in a lower balance than when you retired would be during the following monthly time periods:

• 12/1/1998 thru 2/1/1999

• 12/1/2000 thru 1/1/2001

All other times would result in a greater balance.

See below for my assumptions:

• I assumed the individual would withdraw 1/12th of their COL monthly.

• I assumed their COL would increase when at the end of the year based on historical inflation data from 1914 to 2018.

• I assumed they would receive dividends monthly at 1/12th of the dividend payout based on their balance divided by the S&P 500 stock price multiplied by the dividend divided by 12.

• I projected the returns for the next 30 years using an actual return of 7.64%

• I projected inflation for the next 30 years using historical average