Posts about Crypto
As said, the action and explosiveness of the past days can not be put into simple words, we had everything from starting to think we are recovering at over $28k to the SEC news bombshell dropping and slowly increasing per day until we hit a tipping point where Robinhood delisted Crypto assets, causing up to 20% drops for assets like DOGE, MATIC, SOL and ADA.
With all of those news development there is one thing Crypto has not been over the past days and that is, boring. We may have been on the peak of anxiety over the past days, but still at least we felt something. Other than the sluggish price movement we had over the past two to three months.
Well now we can obviously also say that we only got that kind of excitement on the expense on the losses of us all and especially some sub-favourite alts like ALGO, MATIC and ATOM collapsing to -20%. But guess the game is the game and we are having surely som fun right now.
Don‘t take it all too seriously, especially as we all did not invest more than we can afford to lose. Today we are down and in a week we will be up again that is just show Crypto works.
Good morning randos,
As a crypto veteran, I figured it would be appropriate for me to make a post in the wake of this market turmoil to give some perspective and much needed hopium. I've been in crypto since 2017 and I've seen all the booms and busts that have happened since.
This recent market rout reminds me a lot of December 2018, the bottom of the last bear market. The frenzied level of panic, "it's all over", "alts are dead", everyone blaming everyone, this is usually the behavior that is associated with the late stages of the market cycle.
But as someone who's been through this before, this is what I have to say. It's never as bad as it seems, and it always recovers.
If you take price out of the picture, the crypto market has never been better positioned. And Algorand has never been better positioned.
Crypto companies are now publicly traded. Countries have adopted crypto as legal tender. Crypto is now included in the daily discussions on CNBC and Bloomberg. There are crypto themed ETF's being traded on exchanges. None of this would have even been imaginable just a few short years ago.
And for Algorand accelerated vesting is over, block times are soon to be 3.2 seconds, we have active DeFi platforms and NFT projects, and the Bank of Italy is piloting Algorand. Never has more been happening on Algorand.
The current fight with the SEC reminds me of the fight with the Chinese Communist Party that happened the last bear market. In 2018 China was going to ban crypto (at the time one of the largest crypto markets), and it's the same story just the US this time instead of China. Funny how history repeats.
There is a large discrepancy between the intrinsic value of cryptocurrency and its current price. This discrepancy is the result of human emotion.
We are in the third stage of the technology adoption curve. First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.
The US cannot fight cryptocurrency forever while other countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, the UAE, and soon others are embracing it. Crypto will continue to grow and the US will eventually need to change course to avoid being left behind in what has clearly become the next technological and economic frontier.
Now let's talk about price. Here's some perspective. Below are some major crypto's maximum drawdowns during the previous bear market.
Bitcoin $19,665 -> $3,216 (-83.6%)
Ethereum $1,292 -> $85 (-93.4%)
XRP $3.30 -> $0.27 (-91.8%)
Tron $0.22 -> $.01 (-95.5%)
Cardano $1.17 -> $0.03 (-97.4%)
You get the point. Now let me show how each of them performed in the next bull market from max drawdown to new high.
Bitcoin $3,216 -> $68,729 (+2,137%)
Ethereum $85 -> $4,891 (+5,754%)
XRP $0.27 -> $1.76 (+651%)
Tron $0.01 -> $0.16 (+1600%)
Cardano $0.03 -> $3.10 (+10,333%)
And this is the case for the vast majority of cryptocurrencies in the market.
So as you can see not only can cryptos lose almost all of their value, but they can recover insanely well. And as you can see above, often the harder they fall, the harder they rise.
Now currently Algorand is down from $2.38 -> $0.10 (-95.7%) from its cycle high. Algorand is currently faring better this bear market than Cardano did the last bear market (so far) and we all know how that story ends.
Honestly I was really into Cardano during that 2018 bear market. But I was so caught up in the noise that I bought at $0.03 and sold at $0.04 thinking I had made it out like a bandit. And currently Algorand reminds me a lot of Cardano from that bear market. Despite massive losses, the community stays unusually strong. Despite massive losses, the tech continues to be built out. Both have a general positive sentiment amongst most people in crypto.
I am very confident that Algorand is going to be the Cardano of the next bull cycle, the fundamentals are too strong for it to die completely. It will survive this bear market and will likely flourish the next bull market.
Keep in mind Algorand launched in June 2019, it missed the last bear market. This is the first bear market Algorand is going through. So naturally it's going to see some pains.
But this is not over. When the dust settles and the seas calm, Algorand is going to be primed for the journey of a lifetime.