This particular DOJ investigation focused on the possession of classified [top secret] documents, but also on the refusal of Trump to return the records when asked, leading to obstruction charges. We do not have details at this time, but these generally pertain to documents.

Beyond the Mar-a-Lago investigation, another probe in Washington also conducted by Special Counsel Smith, centers on efforts by Trump and his allies to undo the results of the 2020 presidential election. Perhaps, that too could be coming soon, and if so, that would be a separate set of indictments.

If this goes forward as expected trial may take place in Florida instead of DC; likely because it is considered the site of the crime because unauthorized documents were stored in Florida.

How would these developments impacts Trump's presidential run and is it particularly likely to embolden one or more contenders to sharpen their attacks on Trump.

Is this likely to embolden one or more contenders to sharpen their attacks on Trump or will they wait for possible DC related to 1/6 Capitol attack which is expected to result in additional indictments?

Edited for update: https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/mar-a-lago-documents-probe-latest/index.html

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176 comments

203

Posted by17 hours ago

US Elections

Pence launches 2024 election bid. Do these Republican contenders for the GOP nomination challenging Trump reach some sort of an understanding how not to split up the Republican votes at a critical time and rally behind a leader so as not to hand over the nomination to Trump by splitting GOP votes?

Mike Pence entered the race yesterday with a speech in Iowa attacking Joe Biden, but also Donald Trump.

Pence accused his former running mate of drifting away from conservative values and of asking him to violate the constitution, as the former vice-president sought to carve a place out for himself in the crowded Republican field. In the months to come, we’ll find out what voters think.

The field of challengers is now in double digits. Pence enters the Republican presidential primary with a mountain to climb, polling at just 5% and trailing Trump by 44 points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll in May.

His loyalty to Trump was unwavering until the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol when he refused to overturn/delay election certification. There is a likelihood this overcrowded field actually end up helping Trump by splitting GOP votes handing MAGA Trump base the winning majority.

Do these Republican contenders for the GOP nomination challenging Trump reach some sort of an understanding how not to split up the Republican votes at a critical time and rally behind a leader so as not to hand over the nomination to Trump by splitting votes?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/us/politics/mike-pence.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ex-us-vice-president-mike-pence-launch-2024-election-bid-challenging-trump-2023-06-07/

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301 comments

Posted by7 hours ago

Legislation

The senate just passed a student debt relief killing proposition, and it was vetoed by Biden. Can the three senators who voted for the proposition justify their vote in a democratic view?

A few days ago, a proposition to kill President Biden’s student debt relief bill passed the house (given), but it also passed the Senate, and then was vetoed by Biden. The passing of the proposition in the Senate was a surprise to many though, seeing Democrats’ majority. The three Dem senators that let the bill go to Biden’s desk were Jon Tester (D-MT), Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). Many people think that these three are betraying the Democratic Party, but in my mind, Jon Tester has a reason. In his safe Republican state, voting for unpopular decisions would make his public opinion among his constituents decline. Therefore, keeping that in mind, Tester would have decided to vote for the proposition, knowing Biden would still veto it. I don’t know if the same can be said for Manchin or Sinema, who are well known for being centrist and unstable among Democrats.

18 comments

Posted by5 hours ago

US Elections

What is the likely timeline for Trump's federal trial? If it ends up taking a year before a trial, it'll be during or after the primary voting season.

Imagine that the trial doesn't start before primary voting, and he already has the nomination for the Republican party. We've seen that establishment Republicans are willing to leave Trump behind, but they fear their voters. Would his die-hard voters tolerate a switch at the National Convention? Could his name be on the ballot despite being convicted? If they do replace him as the Republican nominee, would he run as a third party and split the vote? If Trump runs and wins, could he pardon himself? Article 2 of the Constitution states that the only federal crimes the President cannot pardon are cases of impeachment.

7 comments

Posted by8 hours ago

US Politics

To What Extent Does President Biden's Veto Today of the Bill Congress Passed to Stop Student Loan Relief Complicate the Logic of any Potential Forthcoming SCOTUS Decision on the Matter?

I'm more interested in the Biden v. Nebraska case, because it appears to have the more probably chance of 5 justices finding standing – although they still may not since MOHELA neglected to sue itself and whether the State of MO can sue on their behalf is an open question.

In this case, the argument is that the 2003 HEROES Act that authorizes the Secretary of Education to pause or waive student loans in the event of a national emergency does not grant the Secretary the power to forgive $10,000, or $20,000 for Pell Grant Recipients. The oral arguments had Justice Kavanaugh question why he shouldn't just take the plain definition of "Waive" to mean forgive or cancel – but regardless – much rested on the major questions doctrine and whether Congress intended to authorize the President to use forgiveness like this.

The Solicitor General argued that the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act proved Congress believed the President had this power under the 2003 statute, because they altered the statute in that bill to waive any federal tax liability from Student Loan Forgiveness until 2025.

But regardless of whether a majority of the Court bought that argument, now we have Congress – both the House and Senate – recently pass a bill to take the authority to cancel student loan debt away from the President, and we have the President officially vetoing that bill.

Do you believe that this recent bill means that Congress did, in fact, believe that the President had/has this authority, and that the President retains this authority due to the veto? How could SCOTUS square the circle to say the Congress didn't/doesn't believe they created such an authority when Congress itself is actively trying to take the authority away? Does it matter that Congress is failing to take this authority away from the Presidency because of President Biden's veto, unless they can get 2/3 vote for a veto override?

Thoughts?

2 comments

Posted by6 hours ago

International Politics

Do you think that the ANC in South Africa will face the same (or similar) scandals and fate as the PRI in Mexico after they lose their first election?

For those that don't know much about Mexican political history, the PRI was the party that ruled Mexico almost uninterrupted for the majority of the 20th century. They came to power after the Mexican revolution ending in the 1920s.

Narrowing down an actual ideology for the PRI is difficult as they didn't really have one and really followed political convenience. However, this party ruled almost every aspect of Mexico for decades, with most Federal, State, Municipal, and even Judicial positions being filled with PRI members.

For a long time it was assumed by most of the world that this party was democratic and while Mexico was a flawed democracy, the PRI was just really popular similar to the LDP in Japan. However, in the 2000s election, they lost their first ever Presidential election, and the new President from an opposing party released and declassified documents going back decades proving that the PRI was rigging elections on all levels of government. The PRI had also been heavily involved in the drug trade with evidence of many high level PRI politicians being either involved, or having alliances/ taking bribes with the cartels.

So my question, is are similar scandals inevitable once the ANC loses power in South Africa?

1 comment

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