Posts about NBA Draft
The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight at 8:00PM Eastern on ESPN.
Every team in the NBA would love to win the lottery and draft Victor Wembanyama, regardless of their roster and the positional "fit." They'll take the generational talent and figure the rest out later.
That said, when we talk about "fit," we usually do it from the team's perspective. For this post, I wanted to flip that and figure out what would be the most appealing fit from Victor Wembanyama's perspective. Where should he want to go? Which lottery combination should he be rooting for?
I included a detailed breakdown on my preferences below. To do that, I'll grade each in 3 categories -- the appeal of the roster, the appeal of the market, and the appeal of the franchise leadership as well. Each grade will be out of 5 and the sum will determine the winner. Each part will be highly subjective, so let's get to the rankings so you can hurry up and give angry blowback down below in the comments.
(14) Washington Wizards, 6.7% chance at top pick
roster: The Wizards have been stuck in the middle for a while now, content to fight for the play-in. Could Victor turn into Virgil and lead them out of purgatory? Eh. If they win the lottery, they'd likely part ways with Kristaps Porzingis (who has a player option), leaving behind a middling supporting cast. Wembanyama would have to be very good very quickly to help maximize their current timeline, as Bradley Beal is 29 and Kyle Kuzma is 27 (and a FA). It'd also be hard to pivot to a full-on rebuild, as their younger prospects are iffy and Beal's contract is massive. Skill wise, Wembanyama fits the team fine, but the timeline and upside is the issue here. roster grade: 2.5 (out of 5)
market: D.C. seems like a solid market, particularly with its international influence. market grade: 3.0
franchise: I still have some faith in Wes Unseld Jr. as a coach, but there's uncertainty in the front office. The team fired GM Tommie Shepherd and will be looking for a replacement. It's not an ideal situation for Unseld, especially going into a crucial Year 3. franchise grade: 2.0
total: 7.5 stars
(13) Charlotte Hornets, 12.5% chance at top pick
roster: On paper, LaMelo Ball (age 21) would be a great complement to Wembanyama. However, Ball's only locked up for one more season prior to RFA and it's hard to tell if he's committed to the franchise or not. Gordon Hayward doesn't feel like a long-term commitment either. All that -- coupled with the uncertainty about Miles Bridges' status -- makes the roster feel a little toxic. If they draft Wemby, they may also not get a fair return in a potential Mark Williams trade; Williams has promise but didn't get heavy playing time to show it. roster grade: 3.5
market: Charlotte isn't a big city by NBA standards, and the franchise hasn't jumped out as a prestige name yet either. At present time, they're among the most forgotten teams in the league. market grade: 2.0
franchise: That anonymity is surprising from a team owned by the league's most famous player ever -- but unfortunately Michael Jordan hasn't done much to add to his legacy with the franchise so far. The braintrust of GM Mitch Kupchak and Steve Clifford has experience but not a lot of excitement. franchise grade: 2.0.
total: 7.5 stars
(12) Utah Jazz, 4.5% chance at top pick
roster: The Utah Jazz overachieved this season, but at least part of that came from the breakout success of rookie Walker Kessler. It'd be difficult to imagine Kessler sharing the court with Wembanyama for extended periods of time. Given that, the key building blocks would be Lauri Markkanen and a boatload of future draft picks. roster grade: 2.5.
market: I've heard good things about Salt Lake City specifically, but in general the state has to be one of the least appealing for young black stars. The market is what's holding this ranking back. market grade: 1.0
franchise: After losing points on the market, the Jazz can make up some with their braintrust. GM Danny Ainge has title experience to his name, while Will Hardy is one of the brightest young coaches in the game. Hardy also spent time under Gregg Popovich in San Antonio, a system that showed the template for developing young bigs. franchise grade: 4.5
total: 8.0 stars
(11) Chicago Bulls: 1.8% chance at top pick
roster: The Bulls are good enough to compete for a play-in and maybe even an 8th seed, but their remaining upside is a concern. Zach LaVine is 28, DeMar DeRozan is 33, and Nikola Vucevic is 32 (and likely would be gone if they draft Wembanyama). Lonzo Ball would be great in theory, but there's no telling when he'd be able to play basketball again. Pivoting to a rebuild would be harder here than other places. roster grade: 2.0
market: Chicago is the third biggest market in the U.S., although the weather downgrades this to some degree. market grade: 4.0
franchise: Despite the market size and all the glamor of the 90's, owner Jerry Reinsdorf hasn't capitalized and remained a top-flight franchise. His front office appears in some sort of paralysis as well. All that said, I'd defend Billy Donovan as a coach. We're talking about someone who won two national titles in college and has a winning record in the NBA (even if you scratch off the Durant OKC years). He also gets his teams to play hard, as illustrated by their 5th ranked defense this past season. It'd be great if he could get his former pupil Joakim Noah to mentor Wembanyama in a formal role. franchise grade: 2.0
total: 8.0 stars
(10) Portland Trail Blazers, 10.5% chance at top pick
roster: The Blazers are caught between two paths. If you stay the course and keep Damian Lillard, perhaps Wembanyama improves their defense (27th overall) enough to get back into the playoff picture in a season or two. Lillard would also be a valuable mentor to Wembanyama and teach him how to maximize his potential. Alternatively, you could trade Lillard in the hope that there's a viable market for his massive talent + massive contract. If the team does embrace the rebuild, they have two potential building blocks in Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe to help complement Wembanyama. roster grade: 3.5.
market: As a city, Portland is probably more popular with hipster NBA fans than actual NBA players. It's progressive, but not particularly diverse. market grade: 2.5
franchise: There's murkiness all over the franchise, from the ownership group to GM Joe Cronin to coach Chauncey Billups. You can't promise that any of the three entities will be here in 2-3 years, which is the type of uncertainty you'd like to avoid. franchise grade: 2.0
total: 8.0 stars
(9) New Orleans Pelicans, 0.5% chance at top pick
roster: This is a difficult category to grade because we don't know what we're getting out of Zion Williamson. If he's able to get back near 100%, he'd be an awesome complement to Wembanyama. It'd be a 10/10 pairing. And hey, they'd even look like a "1-0" in terms of their skinny and bowling-ball bodies standing next to each other. If Williamson is NOT healthy, the Pelicans still have some appeal. Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy III are the type of big wings that can fit with almost anyone. At the guard spot, C.J. McCollum will provide some more shooting and veteran mentorship until Dyson Daniels is ready to become a jumbo PG. If Zion was healthy, we'd give this a 5.0; without him, it's a 4.0. Let's split the difference and say roster grade: 4.5
market: New Orleans is a great place to visit (and has a strong French influence), but it's not as great of a place to house an NBA team. In fact, it always feels like its viability as a market hanging on by a thread. If they hadn't gotten lucky in the lottery in the past (with Anthony Davis and Zion), they may have been a relocation risk by now. market grade: 1.5
franchise: The front office is fine -- Willie Green looks promising -- but there's not enough of a resume here to rise much higher than an average grade here. There's also a recent history of franchise instability. Bad voodoo, perhaps? franchise grade: 2.0
total: 8.0 stars
(8) Indiana Pacers, 6.8% chance at top pick
roster: Any young big would love the idea of playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton. He's only 23 -- he's a good kid -- and he's a great passer. "Passing" isn't Bennedict Mathurin's strong suit, but he's a head-down scorer who could take advantage of additional spacing. There's an overlap issue with Myles Turner, but the Pacers wisely front-loaded Turner's contract. He got $35M this season, and his contract will go down to $21M and $20M the next two years. Given that, he'd be easy to trade for SF-PF help; in fact, the team could even debate keeping him around for a year or two if they want to slow play Wembanyama's development. roster: 3.5.
market: The Midwest has some lovely people, but not a lot of sex appeal for a 19-year-old kid from France. market grade: 1.5
franchise: The front office has experience -- and so does Rick Carlisle. In fact, Carlisle has been an NBA head coach longer (since 2001) than Victor Wembanyama has been alive. His personality may not be a great fit for a young star, but the professional-minded Wembanyama may be more receptive to his style. franchise grade: 3.0
total: 8.0 stars
(7) Detroit Pistons, 14.0% chance at top pick
roster: The Pistons have two young building blocks with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey (both 21 years old) to help take some pressure off Wembanyama. Cunningham also seems like a strong off-the-court leader. The rest of the roster needs work, especially since Wembanyama would be hard to fit around their young bigs like Jalen Duren (and James Wiseman, if you still care). And when opposing teams know you're overloaded at a position, you're negotiating from a position of weakness. On the plus side, Detroit does have cap room which helps their flexibility to make trades or add free agents. roster grade: 4.0
market: In terms of market size, Detroit is about mid-pack in the NBA. The city's had some financial ups and downs though -- and the weather isn't all that great. market grade: 2.0.
franchise: GM Troy Weaver came over with a strong reputation from his Oklahoma City days, but he may have hung on to Dwane Casey for a year too long. This next coaching hire will crucial for him. Among the candidates mentioned as finalists, I like the bookish Charles Lee (Milwaukee assistant) the most. franchise grade: 2.0
total: 8.0 stars
(6) Toronto Raptors, 1.0% chance at top pick
roster: The Raptors' roster looked good on paper this past season, but they looked less-good when they actually took the court together. Moreover, we're not even sure how much of that roster is returning given several key free agents (Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. have player options, while Jakob Poeltl is an UFA). Still, there's enough talent remaining to be an intriguing fit. Wembanyama would pair well with Scottie Barnes, with Pascal Siakam, and with OG Anunoby individually -- but do they all mesh together? Or do you trade one out for a guard? Either way, they'd have options, and the type of length that could make them a terror defensively. roster grade: 3.0
market: American players don't seem too keen on Toronto as a market, but you figure an international player would be more comfortable there than most. The weather and taxes are negatives, though. market grade: 2.0
franchise: A year or two ago, this may have been a 5.0 grade given the reputations of Nick Nurse and Masai Ujiri. Now, Nurse is gone, and Ujiri may not be far behind if he finds a more appealing job elsewhere. This grade could fluctuate wildly depending on his decision. Presumably, Ujiri would stick around if he actually won the lottery and secured a generational talent like Wembanyama. But even if he does, he still needs to nail the coaching hire. I doubt future stars like Wembanyama want to put their fate in the hands of a coaching newbie like JJ Redick. franchise grade: 3.0
total: 8.0 stars
(5) Oklahoma City Thunder, 1.7% chance at top pick
roster: I happen to be a believer in Chet Holmgren's potential (health permitting), and think he's going to prove a lot of haters wrong next season. In fact, I even think that Holmgren and Wembanyama are light enough on their feet to play alongside each other. If that's true, OKC's potential is downright scary. Between the two towers/beanpoles, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, and even more draft picks down the line -- and it's enough to give Western Conference teams nightmares. roster grade: 4.5
market: Unfortunately, OKC is going to lose points here. The fan base is admirable, but the city itself may be the least desirable market in the NBA. They're a franchise that's always going to have to be on top of their game in order to avoid relocation rumors. If the market was even average, this would likely be # 1 on our whole list. market grade: 0.5
franchise: OKC swings back the other way with their franchise grade. GM Sam Presti has made some mistakes here and there, but he's a smart and seasoned executive who's not afraid to take chances. His hand-picked coach Mark Daigneault also looks like a winner so far. franchise grade: 4.0
total: 9.0 stars
(4) Orlando Magic: 9.0% chance at top pick
roster: The main appeal to the Orlando Magic would be last year's # 1 pick, Paolo Banchero. You can't ask for a much better basketball fit than that. Banchero has incredible skill for a big PF and also has an alpha dog mentality on offense, which would take some pressure off Wembanyama as he develops on that side of the ball. Franz Wagner would also be a bonus; he's a jack-of-all-trades who can blend into any role on the court and also provide Wembanyama some comfort as an international player. There may be some minor smoothing needed down low since the Magic already have a capable center in Wendell Carter Jr., but WCJ's contract is so team friendly ($13M + $12M + $11M) that you can even justify keeping him as a backup. Overall the team would still need some shooting, but they'd be one of the strongest young frontcourts in the league. roster grade: 4.0
market: Orlando isn't a glamor market by any means, but Florida does help its athletes with warm weather and a lack of state income tax. market grade: 2.5
franchise: The jury's still out on young coach Jamahl Mosley. He coached his team to a 12-win improvement in his second year on the job, but the offense still looks sluggish (26th in the league). The next two years will be crucial for his future. franchise grade: 2.5
total: 9.0 stars
(3) Houston Rockets: 14.0% chance at top pick
roster: Over the last few years, the Rockets' roster looks like an assorted grab bag of random talent, running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Still, there's (under-devleoped) talent here. Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. still need time -- but they project as good starters eventually. Alperen Sengun isn't an ideal fit next to Wembanyama, but perhaps they can emulate Gonzaga's Drew Timme + Chet Holmgren as an inside/outside yin/yang double big lineup. Better still, the Rockets have $50M+ in cap space to play with. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to add an old veteran (like James Harden) to the team, but that space (and their future picks) are appealing. roster grade: 3.5
market: Houston is a top 10 market in the NBA and is located in a state without tax. roster grade: 3.5
franchise: Owner Tilman Fertitta is a tool, GM Rafael Stone is still unproven, and new coach Ime Udoka comes armed with his own issues. Still, as far as the basketball side of things go, Udoka is one of the better young coaches in the league and has a sharp defensive mind. He should be fine in Houston and help straighten the organization out, so long as everyone knocks before walking into his office. franchise grade: 2.5
total: 9.5 stars
(2) Dallas Mavericks: 3.0% chance at top pick
roster: The Mavericks disappointed this year and they still have to figure out what the heck to do with Kyrie Irving, but there's one obvious appeal here: Luka friggin' Doncic. We're talking about an MVP-caliber player who's still only 24. Better than that, he seems to be a "fit" with Wembanyama in several ways. Doncic is an offensive maestro who makes his teammates better, while Wembanyama can be the type of defensive anchor to cover for their mistakes. The fact that Doncic is international may also make Wembanyama more comfortable. The Mavs would still need to figure out the supporting cast, but a Doncic + Wembanyama combination would be an incredible, potentially dynastic foundation. You could tank for 20 years and not find a better 1-2 punch to build a winner. roster grade: 5.0
market: Dallas has a sizable population in addition to no state tax. It'll be one of the highest on our board (in a rankings that's devoid of L.A./N.Y markets.) market grade: 4.0
franchise: There are some toxic elements of the franchise, from the front office history down to the coach in Jason Kidd. At the same time, NBA players appear to respect Kidd more than NBA fans do. And while Mark Cuban may be polarizing, he at least cares about the team's success. franchise grade: 2.0
total: 11.0 stars
(1) San Antonio Spurs: 14.0% chance at top pick
roster: Over the last few years, the San Antonio Spurs essentially cleared out space for a potential star, beit Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. They have a few good wings/forwards like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan, all of whom would fit around a ball-dominant star. The Spurs would have the easiest time making Wembanyama their centerpiece, which would be a good thing for his stats and future awards campaigns. If the Spurs got their hands on him, they'd still need a better lead guard, but they'd be on the right track in terms of roster clarity and financial flexibility. roster grade: 4.0
market: San Antonio is one of the smaller markets in the league, but it's aided by the lack of state tax and the lingering prestige of the franchise. market grade: 2.5
franchise: You can't ask for a better developmental home for a big than San Antonio which has overseen David Robinson and Tim Duncan's Hall of Fame careers. Even if Gregg Popovich (at age 74) doesn't have long left as a coach, he and R.C. Buford should stick around and keep the culture strong. franchise grade: 5.0
total: 11.5 stars
In their 6th year, Jayson Tatum leads this draft class with 92 playoff games played. Here’s what the rest of the top 12 picks of this draft have done.
Markelle Fultz: 8
Lonzo Ball: 0
Josh Jackson: 0
De’Aaron Fox: 7
Jonathan Isaac: 5
Lauri Markkanen: 0
Frank Ntilikina: 15
Dennis Smith: 0
Zach Collins: 20
Malik Monk: 7
Luke Kennard: 24
Total: 86
Jayson Tatum: 92
Reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2017.html