Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread

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Daily Kos Staff

Friday June 09, 2023 · 3:00 PM PDT

2023/06/09 · 15:00

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Prize GOP recruit says no to Wisconsin Senate bid

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Friday June 09, 2023 · 12:29 PM PDT

2023/06/09 · 12:29

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 28: Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-WI) presides over the first hearing of the U.S. House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, in the Cannon House Office Building on February 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. The committee is investigating economic, technological and security competition between the U.S. and China. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) — Rep. Mike Gallagher

Senate Republicans looking to recruit Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher received disappointing news Friday morning when the congressman announced that he’d run for reelection rather than challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Both local and national Republicans—including NRSC chair Steve Daines—had spent months trying to convince Gallagher to seek a promotion, and the NRSC even tried to entice the Marine veteran with a recent internal poll showing him trailing the incumbent by a narrow 47-46 margin.

Several other Badger State Republicans could still get in, though, including one far-right figure that the NRSC almost certainly doesn’t want as their standard-bearer. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke celebrated Gallagher’s decision by crowing about a survey the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling had released the previous day that showed him far ahead of his would-be rival in a hypothetical GOP primary. “This poll has to give the RNC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee sleepless nights when somebody outside their establishment circle wipes away these other GOP potential primary candidates,” tweeted Clarke. “None of them energizes or excites the base voter like I do.”

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Friday June 09, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

2023/06/09 · 06:00

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Friday June 09, 2023 · 5:00 AM PDT

2023/06/09 · 05:00

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● AL Redistricting: Thursday's stunning Supreme Court decision that will require Alabama to redraw its congressional map will not only allow Black voters to elect their candidate of choice in a second district, it's likely to have a far-reaching impact on similar cases across the country. As a result, we may soon see Louisiana and Georgia, and possibly even other states such as Texas, reconfigure their maps to remedy violations of the Voting Rights Act. Such changes would both empower voters of color and potentially swing enough seats toward Democrats to affect the balance of power in the closely divided House of Representatives.

David Nir for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 4:10 PM PDT

2023/06/08 · 16:10

Illustrative congressional maps from the plaintiffs'' expert Moon Duchin in the Alabama Voting Rights Act redistricting case showing potential configurations with two Black-majority districts. — Illustrative maps from the Alabama redistricting case created by plaintiffs' expert Moon Duchin

Thursday's stunning Supreme Court decision that will require Alabama to redraw its congressional map will not only allow Black voters to elect their candidate of choice in a second district, it's likely to have a far-reaching impact on similar cases across the country. As a result, we may soon see Louisiana and Georgia, and possibly even other states such as Texas, reconfigure their maps to remedy violations of the Voting Rights Act. Such changes would both empower voters of color and potentially swing enough seats toward Democrats to affect the balance of power in the closely divided House of Representatives.

And we already have a good sense of what these new districts might look like. In order to prove their claims under the relevant provision of the VRA (known as Section 2), plaintiffs in Alabama and elsewhere must draw illustrative maps demonstrating that the minority group in question is both large enough and sufficiently geographically compact such that its members can form a majority in a reasonably drawn district.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 2:09 PM PDT

2023/06/08 · 14:09

Representative Chris Stewart, Republican of Utah, holds up a copy of the transcript of a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as he asks questions of witnesses US Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor and Deputy Assistant Secretary George Kent during the first public hearings held by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence as part of the impeachment inquiry into Trump, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, November 13, 2019. - Donald Trump faces the most perilous challenge of his three-year presidency as public hearings convened as part of the impeachment probe against him open under the glare of television cameras on Wednesday. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / POOL / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) — Outgoing GOP Rep. Chris Stewart of Utah

Republican Rep. Chris Stewart on Wednesday officially informed Gov. Spencer Cox that he would “irrevocably resign” effective the evening of Sept. 15. Later that same day, Cox announced that he would delay the state's regularly scheduled municipal elections so that a special election for Stewart's 2nd Congressional District can be held this year rather than next.

Cox’s proclamation sets the primary for Sept. 5―a full 10 days before Stewart is to leave office―and the general election for Nov. 21. The primaries and general elections for municipal races will also take place on those same days, several weeks later than the respective Aug. 15 and Nov. 7 dates they'd originally been set for.

The Downballot for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 11:18 AM PDT

2023/06/08 · 11:18

A sign points the way to an early voting location in Phoenix, Arizona on October 16, 2020 ahead of the US presidential election. - Arizona has not elected a Democrat since Bill Clinton's second win in 1996, but is undergoing major demographic changes. The state best known abroad for the Grand Canyon is seeing a rapid growth in urban areas, among young college-educated voters, and in its robust Latino community -- groups that tend to favor the Democratic Party. But key to next month's election is that the average Arizona voter, whether Republican or Democrat, tends to be more moderate and is "tired of the President's behavior and the rhetoric coming from his campaign," according to Arizona State University politics lecturer Gina Woodall. (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) (Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)

This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.

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Stephen Wolf for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 10:55 AM PDT

2023/06/08 · 10:55

FILE - Evan Milligan, center, plaintiff in Merrill v. Milligan, an Alabama redistricting case that could have far-reaching effects on minority voting power across the United States, speaks with reporters following oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Washington, Oct. 4, 2022. Standing behind Milligan are Milligan's counsel Deuel Ross, from left, Letetia Jackson, Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Ala., and Janai Nelson, President and Director-Counsel of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. A U.S. Supreme Court decision a decade ago that tossed out the heart of the Voting Rights Act continues to reverberate across the country. Republican-led states continue to pass voting restrictions that, in several cases, would have been subject to federal review had the court left the provision intact. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File) — Evan Milligan, center, one of the plaintiffs in the Alabama redistricting case, speaks with reporters following oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Washington, Oct. 4, 2022.

Alabama will have to redraw its congressional map to create a second district where Black voters can elect their preferred candidate ahead of the 2024 elections following an unexpected Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. The decision could also require similar changes to maps in Louisiana and Georgia—and potentially other states as well—which could in turn affect the balance of power in the closely divided House of Representatives.

Legal experts had widely expected the court's right-wing majority to once again further eviscerate the Voting Rights Act, which formed the basis of the challenge to Alabama's map, by undermining a key provision that prohibits racial discrimination in redistricting. But in a stunning 5-4 decision, Chief Justice John Roberts and fellow conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the court's three liberals to keep the VRA's existing protections in place.

Last year, a panel of three federal judges unanimously ruled that Alabama Republicans had violated the VRA by drawing a congressional map that packed Black voters—who overwhelmingly support Democrats—into just one of the state's seven districts. By doing so, lawmakers ensured that white voters could be guaranteed to elect Republicans in the state's other six districts, creating a gerrymander favoring the GOP.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

2023/06/08 · 06:00

Mail carrier, Puerto Rico. Man on horse with box labeled "correo" outside wooden U.S. Post Office building. Circa 1900.

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Thursday June 08, 2023 · 5:00 AM PDT

2023/06/08 · 05:00

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast

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● OR-05: A trio of Democrats tell Willamette Week that they're thinking about challenging freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th Congressional District, a 53-44 Biden constituency that could be vital to the party's hopes for regaining a majority in the House.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday June 07, 2023 · 1:41 PM PDT

2023/06/07 · 13:41

A trio of Democrats tell Willamette Week that they’re thinking about challenging freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon's 5th Congressional District, a 53-44 Biden constituency that could be vital to the party’s hopes for regaining a majority in the House.

The only declared Democrat at this point is Kevin Easton, who sought the neighboring 6th District last year but dropped out well ahead of the primary after raising little. But other alternatives present higher profiles.

The most familiar name talking about running is 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod Skinner, who would be the state’s first LGBTQ+ member of Congress. The Democrat, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer by a tight 51-49, now says she’s “very seriously considering” a rematch in this seat based in Portland’s southern suburbs and central Oregon. McLeod Skinner won the Democratic nomination last year by defeating conservative incumbent Kurt Schrader, who made it clear in December he wasn’t interested in a comeback.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday June 07, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

2023/06/07 · 06:00

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Elections weekly open thread

Prize GOP recruit says no to Wisconsin Senate bid

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/9

Morning Digest: How the Supreme Court's stunning decision will transform Alabama's congressional map

What will Alabama's new House districts look like following the Supreme Court's surprise ruling?

Utah special election scheduled for seat that won't become vacant for 100 days

The Downballot: Democrats have big a pickup chance in Arizona (transcript)

Shock Supreme Court ruling could yield more Black and Latino districts—and flip the House

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/8

Morning Digest: Multiple Democrats weigh bids to take on Oregon Republican in key House seat

Here are the Oregon Democrats who could run to retake a Biden House seat that got away

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/7