Posts published in September 2011

Michael Baumgartner

Twitter, like the other social networks (why hasn't a socnet formulation taken hold?), is a potentially big tool for candidates. But tools can be used in both helpful and dangerous ways.

Washington state Senator Michael Baumgartner, R-Spokane, asked of his Twitter followers what sounded like a reasonable question: “The past couple of weeks many have asked me to explore running for US Senate. What do you think?” That would be as the Republican candidate against incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell, who so far has no major challengers - meaning the field is pretty much open on the Republican side.

Nothing at all wrong with Baumgartner's tweet - other candidates have and will throw such ideas out there, and it can be a useful tack - other than that you can't control what the reply might be.

In this case, as the news site Publicola reported, "Twenty hours on, Baumgartner, who can lean moderate on social and environmental issues, has only gotten two reactions; just one person retweeted it and one person said it would be her “dream come true.” Both folks described themselves as Tea Partiers."

Or maybe Baumgartner just learned something useful ...

The early take, here as (broadly) elsewhere, has been that the Washington governor's race for the year upcoming, between Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna and Democrat Jay Inslee, will be highly competitive. A couple of new polls seem to reinforce that.

Both give McKenna, at present, a modest lead.

Moore Information puts McKenna at 37%, Inslee at 32%, and 26% "don't know." Moore's analysis concludes, "At this stage of the campaign, this race appears very fluid with almost one-in-three voters not opting for either candidate. However, among those who have decided, McKenna is hitting the right targets and doing well with the audiences he must have to win statewide."

Moore is, it should be noted, considered a Republican pollster with some controversies in the past.

That said, a SurveyUSA poll (data collected a week ago) gives McKenna 44% and Inslee 38% - numbers not far off from Moore's (and more favorable to the Republican). The weight of polling results continues to give McKenna a modest lead.

Whether it will last is another matter. McKenna is fairly well known already, having been elected twice statewide, while Inslee has been well known only in his district north of Seattle. Over the course of more that a year of campaigning, both will likely become about equally well known.

And there is some ongoing weight to running as a Democrat in Washington. In the race to replace McKenna as attorney general, two King County Council members, comparably well known (that is, not very outside of King), have announced and were polled; Democrat Bob Ferguson scored 39% and Republican Reagan Dunn 34%.

The governor's race looks plenty hot from here.

And it's still an ugly picture. We check out the economists' reports day by day, and they don't seem to be getting any better.

Here's the unabridged executive summary from the report out today from the Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. See how many bright spots you can find in it.

 We are in the fragile aftermath of the Great Recession where a return to normalcy seems like a mirage in the desert – the closer we get to it, the further it moves away. Fear and uncertainty have overwhelmed consumer and business behavior. The risk of a recession has increased significantly.
 Revisions to U.S. real Gross Domestic Product show a much deeper recession than previously estimated, and a U.S. economy close to stall speed in the first half of this year.
 Our previous forecast prior to these data revisions had expected growth regaining momentum in the second half of 2011 as oil prices stabilized, and supply chains were restored with Japan rebuilding. Now that it turns out that there was no growth momentum in the first half of the year, a second half return to momentum seems unlikely.
 The likelihood of a full-blown European debt crisis, and the consequent ripples across the global economy have increased.
 Washington’s economy is not immune to national and global economic developments. Like the nation, the outlook for the Washington economy has weakened since June.
 The employment recovery in Washington this recession has been the weakest of any post-war recovery. Labor market conditions since the June forecast have been worse than anticipated.
 The recovery in state housing and construction will be later than previously expected. New construction faces headwinds from rising foreclosures and falling home prices.
 Washington is still expected to outperform the nation in employment and personal income growth, although the outlook for both has been lowered substantially.
 General Fund-State revenue for the 2011-13 biennium is now forecasted to be $1.4 billion less than forecasted in June.
 The preliminary General Fund-State total for the 2009-11 biennium came in $24.9 million below the June forecast.
 The downside risks to the outlook have risen and exceed the upside risks by a wide margin.

Washington Governor Chris Gregoire's call for a special legislative session for November sounds on its face questionable. Legislators will be coming to town in regular session not so long after that - probably within a month after it adjourns.

Still, the budget numbers have been worsening at a heady clip, so the argument for action sooner than even that does have some weight. Olympia Republican Representative Gary Alexander, after the announcement: “Budget leaders can begin the process now. The longer we wait to address the issue, the harder the budget problem will be to solve." Not a bad point.

And there is one other. By focusing on budget adjustments in December, there should be a better ability to focus on other things - economic problem-solving - in January. That clearly seemed a driver in Gregoire's thinking; her release on the call noted she wanted "to spend the regular session focusing on policy bills to support job creation and economic growth." Passage might be a little easier than way, with fewer opportunities, in some quarter or other, for hostage-taking.

So how long will be the special be? Don't figure on a lot less than 30 days, though there'll surely be a strong push to get home well in advance of Christmas.