LIGHT THE BEAM

Let me start by saying this is probably the last one of these, at least for this year. We're going camping this weekend and I'm looking forward to huffing some redwoods. And by the time I'm home, all of these probabilities will have solidified into actual results. And then it's playoff time! This is the first time in a very long time I'm more interested in the end of the NBA season than in the start of baseball season. On the whole, things are pretty good here in Beamtown. Thanks for following along as I play with math. It's been a lot of fun for me, and it seems like at least some of you have enjoyed it too.

Currently eating some delicious migas that Suzy made, but just to shout out one last local business, I had a really tasty sandwich for lunch yesterday at Karen's Bakery in Folsom. It's a little farther out, obviously, but if you find yourself in Folsom, their stuff is delicious. Faria Bakery also has a spot in Folsom, in addition to their Oak Park location, and their breads are out of control. I guess that's two local businesses, but I don't think anyone's gonna be mad about it.

Can you tell I don't want to talk about the game last night? I feel like having Domas on the floor for 35 minutes and still losing (after the Grizzlies lost) was sort of the worst of all worlds. I know we'll have a few days off during the play-in, and I get that they really want to get to 50 wins, but I still would have liked to see a bit more rest for the starters. I do think it's funny how quickly narratives form. Just yesterday on Sactown Sports they were talking about how bad the Kings are at home and how much better they are on the road. And it's true their defense is much better on the road, but the results aren't that different--the team is 23-17 at home and 25-15 away. So, idk, watch out for sneaky narratives. They usually turn out to be wrong almost as quickly as they seemed to be right.

We're down at about a 1 in 10 shot at the 2 seed. Memphis still has a tough game against the Bucks, but our only shot to catch them is if we win out and they lose out. Not impossible, but definitely not likely.

Odds today still have us at a 25% chance of getting to 50 wins, which makes sense if both games are basically 50-50 toss-ups. I think if the Kings decide to go for it in Denver on Sunday against a Nuggets team that will almost certainly be resting its starters, that game is probably more than a 50% chance. The Warriors game could go either way. Those match-ups have been pretty tight this year, decided by an average of 5 points. One of those was game three of that opening four-game losing streak (EVERYBODY PANIC oh no never mind). It'll be interesting to see how Friday shakes out. The W's are still playing to beat the play-in.

We're still looking most likely to face the Warriors in round 1, followed closely by the Lakers. Pretty good odds we'll be looking to exorcise some demons. I know everyone wants the Clippers, but I'm not sure playing Kawhi in a playoff series is that much safer. It's really a pick-your-poison situation. I trust Mike to get this team ready for any opponent.

I'm still rooting for maximum chaos, in which the Clips, Lakers, Warriors, and Thunder all finish with the same record. Sims show that as just a 4.5% chance of happening. It'd be fun though. Supermax chaos, in which the Wolves tie those teams as well, is just a 0.26% chance of happening. Extremely unlikely. But would be extra fun.

Have a beamful weekend, and see you in the postseason!

​ ​ Table: Kings Chance of Seed (10,000 Simulations)